The Good, The Bad, The Ugly Cincinnati Edition

[Chaos]

Since the 2020 season, the Bills fans have had legitimate Super Bowl aspirations each year.  During the 2020 and 2021 seasons, the stars had lined up very good with the Bills coming into the playoffs with more or less the healthiest team (I seem to remember threads discussing how this was not luck, but superior training and rotation strategies by the Bills).  In 2022 the Bills were not so lucky, 

THE GOOD

1.  Bills have one of the best QBs in the league.  
2. Dalton Kincaid has broken out and is already performing at "star" TE level.  This is the second passing weapon we have been looking for. 
3. McGovern, Torrence, Dawkins form a core of a relatively young and solid line
4. Diggs remains a beast
5. First offensive drive script

 

Collectively the Bills have a good core of offensive talent. You can't have a franchise QB AND stars at every position.  Bills offensive personnel is actually pretty well constructed at this point

 

THE BAD

 

1. Getting rolled on the first two defensive drives. One poster in the GDT described it "like a hot knife threw butter".  Honestly, the team would be better off being burned on an 80 yard pass on the first play from scrimmage, than getting used and abused on the two drives.
2. The current starters on defense do not include a single player who is performing above JAG replacement level. 
3. The pass rush is non-existent. Von Milller, Floyd, Groot, Espensa barely make cameo appearances, let alone influence the games. 
4. Defensive coaches are not able to make do with what they have in terms of personnel.  Fans get fooled because after the team falls two touchdowns behind, the opponents start slowing up and become willing to play a field position game (offense had horrible field position all night).  Fans think "finally we got stop".  Coaches think "two TD lead is still secure, they are 90 yards from the goal line. 
5. Overall investment in the roster has been a disaster.  The Bills are invested in draft picks and defense at a level that creates an expectation of a top defense, rather than a bottom dweller.  Injuries are a big part of.  But coming into the season with White, Miller, Hyde and Poyer and all being old and coming off of serious injuries, and Jones and Floyd being 31 years old the defensive roster could easily be anticipated to have problems.  Everyone will age another year next year. It likely requires a complete rebuild. 
6. Offensive coaching.  I think there are two separate problems here. A) The team seems to be trying to find a rythym that is unnatural to them, to slow things down, to protect the defense.  They can't find this rythym, and this just backfires.  The TV commentators even keep saying "why don't the Bills stick with what they do well?".  There must be an answer, protecting the defense seems most logical to me  B) I don't know if Dorsey is handicapped by point A, but he seems genuinely bad at red zone play calling, which would seem independent of A.  Our head coach decided to roll with a rookie OC, and that is not seeming wise at this point. 

 

THE UGLY

 

1. The officiating.  The early bad calls by the officials significantly impacted the game. There is no real sugar coating it.  The phantom roughing the passer not only changes that series, it has to get in the heads of the defensive players the rest of the game.  The imaginary intentional grounding arguably took points off the board. A reasonable person could argue that a better officiated game would have had a different outcome.   

Edited November 6, 2023 by Chaos

[dorquemada]

eh, this is starting to feel like how we would relish the moral victories during the drought.  Oh hey we kept Tom Brady to 250 yards passing!  Just think of what that will mean next year!

 

 

[Mango]

I can’t disagree with anything here. 
 

I will add that the defense was on the field a lot in the first half. Huddling up or going no huddle, I think a team should be able to convert a first down or two to give the other side of the ball some rest. 
 

The defense wasn’t good in the first half, but the offense also hung them out to dry. The first pass the offense completed after the first drive was with 1:30 left in the half. 
 

I thought that the defense was going to totally fold this game with all the 3 and outs and the like. And honestly, I think we got lucky with that wild set of penalties in the 2nd. Kudos to them, they really came out of the half firing.

[oldmanfan]

1.  The NFL should just make a rule that you can't touch the QB.  To call that roughing is an insult to football.

2.  Josh is a great QB from a physical standpoint.  He is not great from an intelligence standpoint.  They bait him into that throw he had for a pick, and he does not learn from it.  HE does not realize on 3rd and short the play is to get the ball out quick and get the first down.  He does not read pre-snap clues as well as he could.  It is a credit to his physical talents he is as great as he is, but if he wants to elevate to the greats of history in the NFL his mental game has to progress more.

3. Dorsey needs to be let go.  He is not imaginative enough nor does he adapt well to what is going on during the game.

4.  The defense hung in as well as could be expected given the injuries. 

5.  We don't make the playoffs this year in all likelihood, so time to rip off the bandage.  Guys that need to be let go include Morse, Brown, Davis, and trade Diggs for picks.  Get a new #1 WR in FA or draft. Build around Allen and Kincaid on offense.  On defense say good-bye to Miller, Epenesa, Floyd, Poyer, White, maybe Hyde,.  Build around Oliver and Bernard.  Draft linemen on both sides of the ball and build from inside out. 

 

Edited November 6, 2023 by oldmanfan

[BuffaloRebound]

How is throwing deep to Harty and then forcing it downfield to Davis protecting the defense?  

And the Bengals didn’t take foot off gas, they sputtered after Linval Joseph blew up Burrow.  Our defense was actually extremely physical after the 1st drive and held up extremely well.  Our offense stopped itself with dumbass play calls/decisions.  

[PayDaBill$]

Josh is the product of a bad schemes and bad OC’s yes Dabs included.  Get an offensive minded younger headcoach in here, you’ll see changes in JA.

 

 

Edited November 6, 2023 by PayDaBill$

[Jerome007]

46 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Josh is a great QB from a physical standpoint.  He is not great from an intelligence standpoint.  They bait him into that throw he had for a pick, and he does not learn from it.

That was a DUMB throw. But for all his high turnover rate, he makes such dumb INT only 4-5 times a year.

 

The ugly is that the Bills could miss the playoffs, and they lost to a direct rival for a playoff spot.

The ugly is all those injuries on defense.

 

The bad is the offence and Dorsey. They barely have an "injury excuse" yet underperform.

 

The good: for all the talk of the mighty Bengals and Dolphins, don't you see the Bills crushed the Fins and barely lost to the Bengals? As is often the case, the turnovers were the difference. The Bills D bailed out the team when Josh threw that INT deep in their own zone. And the offense was on a tear when Kincaid fumbled. This HAPPENS in football. In other times, we could say chill, relax. But at 5-4, yikes. My point is that no, the Bills were NOT outclassed. They lost. It happens. And they lost to one of the elite teams. First Jets loss and Cheats loss sting more. Yet recall the Chiefs lost the Broncos (!) last week and Bengals are at 5-3, not 8-0...

 

[Freddie's Dead]

Agree with all the above, but would make some changes/adds:

 

The Ugly:  Some of the worst officiating I've ever seen in an NFL game, and all the missed/bad calls went one way.  On the first Bengals drive, the refs ignored two blatant DOG penalties.  The tripping tackle which injured Kincaid, 15 yards missed, followed by the IG on Josh, WHEN HE WAS NOT UNDER PRESSURE (read the rules refs, it's your *****in' job; never saw that call made on any other QB).  Those last two calls kept at least 3, likely 7 points off the board for the Bills.  The RTP on Tim Settle was ridiculous, he turned Burrow over when he tackled him, did not land on him at all.  Huge call that helped the Bengals score their second TD.  Next missed call was the facemask on Gabe Davis, which took 4 points off the board for the Bills.  They missed the call on the Sherfield catch (the challenge we'll get to in a bit), and finally, the piece de resistance, ignoring Higgins holding Josh Norman at the point of attack for Mixon's first down run that iced the game.  

 

McDummy was in fine form last night.  The total capitulation at the end of the first half, when there was time for Josh to make at least two Hail Mary heaves into the EZ was a fireable offense all by itself.  If I'm a player on the team, I know at that point that my coach does not fight and claw for every single point, having no faith in his players to come through under pressure.  It was a complete puss move.

 

3rd and 10, offensive holding, McDummy declines the penalty and allows the Bengals to attempt a 55 yard FG.  I got really upset because McDummy lost us a game a few years ago when he declined a 3rd down penalty and allowed an opposing FG attempt, which was made.  When questioned after the game, he said he ***** up and would make a different decision, in hindsight.  Unfortunately, he seems to have forgotten this incident, because he's done it twice this season.  The Bengals kicker made the kick, but McDummy was bailed out by a FS penalty.  He's simply unable to learn from his mistakes, because he makes the same ones over and over again.  For those who were so scared of the Bengals converting a 3rd and 20, look up the percentages for a 55 yard FG vs. a 3rd and 20 conversion.  55 yard FG's are not the coin flip they used to be.

 

And at last, we come to the challenge.  90% of this board thinks that the challenge was bad because it was unlikely to be overturned.  That's correct, but misses the point entirely.  Winning the challenge is not the criterion for a proper challenge.  Challenges must be used strategically, on critical plays that turn the outcome.  When you need two scores to tie/win, and you have less than 5:00 on the clock, you need to realize that the TO you have to spend on the challenge is worth 40 seconds, at least.  You can't spend that on a 9-yard gain on first down!  You win, it's 2nd and 1, big whoop.  If you lose, you just gave away 40 seconds of clock.  By any measure, this challenge was a colossally boneheaded move.  I will disagree with others that have posted that you never use a challenge on a 9-yard gain.  On first down, no.  On second, third, or fourth down, you use it ONLY if the 9-yard gain would result in a first down.  What amazes me week in week out is how the members of this board display more clearheaded and strategic in-game decision making than a guy who has played/coached professionally for most of his life and gets paid millions per year to do it.  McDummy must go, because under pressure, he constantly McChokes by making bad decisions.

[cgg716]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

1.  The NFL should just make a rule that you can't touch the QB.  To call that roughing is an insult to football.

2.  Josh is a great QB from a physical standpoint.  He is not great from an intelligence standpoint.  They bait him into that throw he had for a pick, and he does not learn from it.  HE does not realize on 3rd and short the play is to get the ball out quick and get the first down.  He does not read pre-snap clues as well as he could.  It is a credit to his physical talents he is as great as he is, but if he wants to elevate to the greats of history in the NFL his mental game has to progress more.

3. Dorsey needs to be let go.  He is not imaginative enough nor does he adapt well to what is going on during the game.

4.  The defense hung in as well as could be expected given the injuries. 

5.  We don't make the playoffs this year in all likelihood, so time to rip off the bandage.  Guys that need to be let go include Morse, Brown, Davis, and trade Diggs for picks.  Get a new #1 WR in FA or draft. Build around Allen and Kincaid on offense.  On defense say good-bye to Miller, Epenesa, Floyd, Poyer, White, maybe Hyde,.  Build around Oliver and Bernard.  Draft linemen on both sides of the ball and build from inside out. 

 

Regarding number 4, that's laughable 

[ngbills]

Our punter sucks. Sadly we are in a field battle more often than not. Other teams punt from their own 10 and we start our drive at the 20. Then we punt from our 30 and they start their drive from the 40. 

[Jerome007]

1 minute ago, ngbills said:

Our punter sucks. Sadly we are in a field battle more often than not. Other teams punt from their own 10 and we start our drive at the 20. Then we punt from our 30 and they start their drive from the 40. 

He had a real good game before. But yeah, his leg isn't that powerful. Not to start a debate again ha ha, but why is Araiza not hired? He was cleared and he is a free agent! I don't get it.

[Freddie's Dead]

24 minutes ago, Jerome007 said:

The good: for all the talk of the mighty Bengals and Dolphins, don't you see the Bills crushed the Fins and barely lost to the Bengals? As is often the case, the turnovers were the difference. The Bills D bailed out the team when Josh threw that INT deep in their own zone. And the offense was on a tear when Kincaid fumbled. This HAPPENS in football. In other times, we could say chill, relax. But at 5-4, yikes. My point is that no, the Bills were NOT outclassed. They lost. It happens. And they lost to one of the elite teams. First Jets loss and Cheats loss sting more. Yet recall the Chiefs lost the Broncos (!) last week and Bengals are at 5-3, not 8-0...

 

 

This^^^^.  The Bills went toe-to-toe with the best team in the AFC and came up just short because they couldn't overcome incompetent reffing and coaching.  This was not the 2022 playoff game.  They came in ready, answered the initial Bengals TD with one of their own, and generally hung tough as the defensive injuries continued to mount.

[dpberr]

The Ugly:

 

Regardless of on the the field performance, it'll be business as usual at OBD, with misplaced faith in a "process" that no longer generates positive results.  

[LanderPoke]

Good o line??? You’ve got to be joking. They can’t run block or pass block

[Chaos]

5 minutes ago, LanderPoke said:

Good o line??? You’ve got to be joking. They can’t run block or pass block

Reading comprehension is always key. No one said the offensive line was good what I said was it had three good players big difference

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

1.  
2. Defensive coaches are not able to make do with what they have in terms of personnel.  Fans get fooled because after the team falls two touchdowns behind, the opponents start slowing up and become willing to play a field position game (offense had horrible field position all night).  Fans think "finally we got stop".  Coaches think "two TD lead is still secure, they are 90 yards from the goal line.

This. This right here. 

 

Here's what's been driving me crazy. We have a defensive minded HC, right? He makes darn good money because he was proficient at running a defense. But it seems like his defense can't work unless it's filled with Pro Bowl or All Pro level talent. 

 

In our game against the Patriots...they were missing Judon and Uche. Still got really nice pressure all game. Why? They schemed around it. It happens every week. 

 

Look at the Bengals. Sorry, but they have NO WHERE near the talent on defense that the Bills do. They are still stopping teams. Why? Scheme and gameplan. 

 

I get it, we lost 3 VERY good players on defense. But a talented defensive mind should have the ability to make up for that. Instead we had to use what little cap space we had to replace White and Jones because McDermott can't figure out how to adapt his defense to what he has in hand. Who knows, perhaps maybe if he could have figured out how to get Elam on the field we wouldn't have had to make the move for a CB and could have spent that money (and draft capital) on a WR or another weapon to help an offense that can't seem to function.

 

[oldmanfan]

17 minutes ago, cgg716 said:

Regarding number 4, that's laughable 

To say the defense did not hang in there without Jones, Milaon, White, and then losing Bernard and Hyde and still only give up 10 points after the first quarter is laughable. 

[BuffaloRebound]

7 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

To say the defense did not hang in there without Jones, Milaon, White, and then losing Bernard and Hyde and still only give up 10 points after the first quarter is laughable. 

Agreed.  The D held Cincy to 54 yards rushing on 22 carries.  After the first drive, we played physical and everything Cincy got was difficult.  The 2 turnovers and inability of the offense to sustain drives were why we lost.  The defense came to play.  

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, dorquemada said:

eh, this is starting to feel like how we would relish the moral victories during the drought.  Oh hey we kept Tom Brady to 250 yards passing!  Just think of what that will mean next year!

 

And if it doesn't change, just think how it's gonna feel when we have to pay twice the current ticket prices plus PSLs to attend home games to watch it.   

 

Meanwhile, the AFCE will likely never be as easy as it is now for us during the Allen-era, however long that lasts.  

 

 

[Sherlock Holmes]

36 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Our punter sucks. Sadly we are in a field battle more often than not. Other teams punt from their own 10 and we start our drive at the 20. Then we punt from our 30 and they start their drive from the 40. 

Need to get Araiza back in here ASAP