Shotgun at the 1 Yard Line

[Alphadawg7]

25 minutes ago, Franco_92 said:

Fair. I'm on board with requiring him to call that play every sequence we start at the 1. I do wonder if they combine a few factors including his shoulder to try other things first unless the game is on the line (ie, they didn't call it against Tampa on their first drive, but they called it multiple times until they scored with under 2 left vs NE down by a score)

 

Not justifying that thought process but I bet it's there. In general they aren't faced with many plays at the 1. 40 of them over 57 games is less than one attempt at the one per game 

 

We almost seem more likely to sneak on 1 to go away from the end zone than from the goal line which is interesting, I wonder if that holds up in data 

 

Im good with trying something else, especially if something like his shoulder is coming into play.  However, I am not good with that something else being a run play out of shotgun with a RB past his prime and standing 6 yards from the end zone being just handed the ball.  

 

I mean he is getting the ball in basically a standing position compared to running from under center where the RB is being handed the ball while running forward into the hole/LOS with momentum and some speed much closer to the goal line with less ground to cover to convert/score.  Even if it had worked I would still think it would have been a poor play call.  

 

FWIW, on a subsequent drive on 3rd and 1 elsewhere on the field they sneased it to extend the drive, so couldn't be too concerned about the shoulder.  

Edited November 3, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, Dunkirk Donski said:

Could this play be a result of Josh's shoulder and the coaching staff wanting to limit contact? 

 

They didnt do it on 3rd and 4th and Goal for the TD. But then they ran it later at midfield for a 1st down.

 

I'd rather they use it to put up points, but what do I know.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

7 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Actually the worst case would be Allen out for the year with an injury. 

 

People seem to have a hard time realizing one item of emphasis has been to run Allen less to minimize his chances of getting hurt.

Even though all the times he's been injured (maybe outside of leaving the 2019 Patriots game with the concussion) have been when he's throwing the ball. 

 

UCL Texans, UCL Jets, shoulder Giants. 

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

40 minutes ago, Franco_92 said:

I don't think the data is saying "No shotgun at the 1". It is saying "Do not pass out of the shotgun as frequently as you do." 

 

Again, the shotgun run touchdown rate is the same for the bills and the league as the under-center run. Unfortunately this data includes QB runs in both, so it's hard to tell success rate of that by itself or of non-QB runs. I'm not sure if the Bills are bad at the handoffs and great at the QB runs, but league-wide, both are very successful plays. 

The Bills need to pass from under center more frequently when they get to the 1. This will also help their run success eventually, because right now any team that has a stats department knows we aren't passing if we line up under center.

 

 

I would think that the shotgun running successes have been Josh. He can GO right from the snap, no handoff hesitation, and has an extra blocker back there if there was a RB lined up.

 

The passes from under center, I imagine, are largely play action, which has been successful for us all over the field.

 

I'd love to see more QB shotgun runs and more play action passes down at the goal line.

 

Still no to shotgun draws.

[RoyBatty is alive]

3 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Or how bout a naked bootleg when the entire planet knows you're running that failed draw. How many times must Dorsey witness his play fail before he scrubs it completely?

The elephant in the room is although Josh Allen is huge and should easily be able to do the tush push, his ball integrity with QB sneaks (vs Minnesota last year)  or taking picking the wrong hole as he did vs Jax a few years ago, is highly suspect.   Josh Allen can be a rock star with a QB sneak as he was in Dallas on Thanksgiving or potential disaster.  I just don't trust him in QB sneak situations.

[Einstein's Dog]

5 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Even though all the times he's been injured (maybe outside of leaving the 2019 Patriots game with the concussion) have been when he's throwing the ball. 

 

UCL Texans, UCL Jets, shoulder Giants. 

 

I think Josh got hurt in college running the ball.

 

Anyway the concept is pretty straightforward, the more Josh runs the ball the higher the odds he can get hurt.  Especially in short yardage/goal line where there is no sliding or avoiding contact. 

 

I do believe the reduction in Josh's designed runs has been part of a deliberate effort to extend his career.  I commend Dorsey/McD for sticking with their overall objectives.

 

I think you will see Josh run more in the playoffs.

[RoyBatty is alive]

14 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Actually the worst case would be Allen out for the year with an injury. 

 

People seem to have a hard time realizing one item of emphasis has been to run Allen less to minimize his chances of getting hurt.

The number of QB sneaks and injuries is counter-intuitive.  It is actually a very safe play for a QB.

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

There is also a difference between 1 yard (a full yard) goal to go. vs. having the ball spotted at the half yard line which I think was the case against the Bucs. At the half yard line you can also just consider calling Allen to jump and extend the ball over the line. 

 

I don't really mind Allen running out of shotgun from the half or one yard line, but I do hate a shotgun hand off. But really, should just sneak it every time. With or without the tush push. 

a shotgun handoff from the 1 is just the worst. 
 

Josh with a head of steam and vision for a gap out of shotgun is fine but the push is better. 

[Alphadawg7]

14 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

The elephant in the room is although Josh Allen is huge and should easily be able to do the tush push, his ball integrity with QB sneaks (vs Minnesota last year)  or taking picking the wrong hole as he did vs Jax a few years ago, is highly suspect.   Josh Allen can be a rock star with a QB sneak as he was in Dallas on Thanksgiving or potential disaster.  I just don't trust him in QB sneak situations.

 

Having concerns about Josh fumbling in general is valid obviously, but almost all of those have come on blindside hits/strips or runs out in the open where he is carrying the ball more carelessly and trying to get more yards.  I wouldn't be concerned on sneaks because one time there was one mistake in the Minny game, he still has over a 90% success rate on sneaks overall and its our most successful play to run from a statistics point of view on down and 1 (or less).  

 

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Allen needs to run more in the red zone. 

 

Inside the 10 I like that play call much more than a 2nd-Goal shotgun handoff to Murray or Cook for negative yardage. 

 

 

[Franco_92]

30 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

I mean he is getting the ball in basically a standing position compared to running from under center where the RB is being handed the ball while running forward into the hole/LOS with momentum and some speed much closer to the goal line with less ground to cover to convert/score.  Even if it had worked I would still think it would have been a poor play call.  

 

 

I guess this is where we differ - both Bills data and NFL data suggest that it's not a poor play call and that there is actually a better chance of scoring with the play you don't like (league data). If the logic works out the way you describe, what makes it work better? 

25 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I would think that the shotgun running successes have been Josh. He can GO right from the snap, no handoff hesitation, and has an extra blocker back there if there was a RB lined up.

 

The passes from under center, I imagine, are largely play action, which has been successful for us all over the field.

 

I'd love to see more QB shotgun runs and more play action passes down at the goal line.

 

Still no to shotgun draws.

Bold: Yes, he does this a lot so it probably does count for some of them. But then, Cook scored on a shotgun handoff against Miami. One of the RBs did against the Raiders. And the aggregate data doesn't hate that play as much as you guys do. 

 

Also, I think @HoofHeartedhas posted it enough that we should stop calling the play "draw." They have not run a draw at the goal line this year, and the play everyone calls "shotgun draw" is dart, which we run very successfully and which sets up everyone's favorite RPOs that we gash teams with.

[Einstein's Dog]

2 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

The number of QB sneaks and injuries is counter-intuitive.  It is actually a very safe play for a QB.

A safe play? 

 

If your objective is to limit the number of shots your QB takes, having him run a sneak is not something you do.

 

Extending the career of Josh by intentionally limiting his hits was a stated goal this year.  They are doing that.  Playoffs you may see an expanded playbook.

[Franco_92]

1 minute ago, Einstein's Dog said:

A safe play? 

 

If your objective is to limit the number of shots your QB takes, having him run a sneak is not something you do.

 

Extending the career of Josh by intentionally limiting his hits was a stated goal this year.  They are doing that.  Playoffs you may see an expanded playbook.

Sneaks have hurt Mahomes, Lance and Purdy I believe in recent years, off the top of my head. It's not a risk free play. There are many factors the coaches consider that fans can't acknowledge because we don't know what they are, in addition to injury concerns. The coaches don't just forget that this play is in the playbook, and they are not dumb, and they especially aren't dumber than Bills internet rabble, and yet they sometimes don't run this play. I bet part of it is Allen's general discomfort under center, and a recent history of shaky snap transactions under center. Allen fumbled at least 3 of these in fairly big moments last year.

[DrDawkinstein]

17 minutes ago, Franco_92 said:

I guess this is where we differ - both Bills data and NFL data suggest that it's not a poor play call and that there is actually a better chance of scoring with the play you don't like (league data). If the logic works out the way you describe, what makes it work better? 

Bold: Yes, he does this a lot so it probably does count for some of them. But then, Cook scored on a shotgun handoff against Miami. One of the RBs did against the Raiders. And the aggregate data doesn't hate that play as much as you guys do. 

 

Also, I think @HoofHeartedhas posted it enough that we should stop calling the play "draw." They have not run a draw at the goal line this year, and the play everyone calls "shotgun draw" is dart, which we run very successfully and which sets up everyone's favorite RPOs that we gash teams with.

 

Shotgun dart. Shart. Sounds about right.

 

From now on, I will call that play the Shart.

[Einstein's Dog]

6 minutes ago, Franco_92 said:

Sneaks have hurt Mahomes, Lance and Purdy I believe in recent years, off the top of my head. It's not a risk free play. There are many factors the coaches consider that fans can't acknowledge because we don't know what they are, in addition to injury concerns. The coaches don't just forget that this play is in the playbook, and they are not dumb, and they especially aren't dumber than Bills internet rabble, and yet they sometimes don't run this play. I bet part of it is Allen's general discomfort under center, and a recent history of shaky snap transactions under center. Allen fumbled at least 3 of these in fairly big moments last year.

A shot to Josh's shoulder could limit his effectiveness for multiple games.

 

Another aspect of that is hard to track is the effect of cumulative hits.   We see this in RBs all the time, the talk of the wear and tear.

 

Our Carolina connections are all to familiar with the short time span of Cam.  They are trying not to have that happen with Josh.

[RoyBatty is alive]

20 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

A safe play? 

 

If your objective is to limit the number of shots your QB takes, having him run a sneak is not something you do.

 

Extending the career of Josh by intentionally limiting his hits was a stated goal this year.  They are doing that.  Playoffs you may see an expanded playbook.

Look it up, and is easily verifiable as I just did, it is, as I wrote a very safe play.  Do you know how to look  it up?  I wont sit here and protract this discussion.

[HardyBoy]

1 hour ago, Franco_92 said:

Thanks! Luckily that site did the hard work, I just downloaded the csvs and played with Pandas DataFrames for about 20 minutes. 

 

There's some packages in R that lets you do the scraping yourself (think it's still called nflscrapr, but there might be a newer version... not sure if they have something for python though. 

[Einstein's Dog]

1 minute ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Look it up, and is easily verifiable as I just did, it is, as I wrote a very safe play.  Do you know how to look  it up?  I wont sit here and protract this discussion.

If your objective is to not have your QB hit, running a sneak is not a good play.  I don't know how to dumb this down any more for you.

 

Everyone in the FO wants to extend Josh's career.  Having him get hit less was thought to be a good way to do that.  They have been executing that strategy.

 

 

[HardyBoy]

I think on that 4th and 1, it was likely an RPO and Allen misread the defenders call a banjo coverage at the last second... think he was expecting a man coverage, which I would think throwing was the right read...I haven't seen what the line was doing on that play, if they were run blocking for a QB draw, but my guess a qb run was the second or third read on that play.

[Alphadawg7]

36 minutes ago, Franco_92 said:

I guess this is where we differ - both Bills data and NFL data suggest that it's not a poor play call and that there is actually a better chance of scoring with the play you don't like (league data). If the logic works out the way you describe, what makes it work better? 

Bold: Yes, he does this a lot so it probably does count for some of them. But then, Cook scored on a shotgun handoff against Miami. One of the RBs did against the Raiders. And the aggregate data doesn't hate that play as much as you guys do. 

 

Question:  Are your stats taking into consideration the runner is a past his prime RB when comparing it to the other data?  Are your stats removing Josh Allen runs from Shotgun (which are basically another form of a sneak) when looking at Bills shotgun run data?  

 

Every team and situation is different.  And when you have Josh Allen on your team, statistically it is incorrect to hand the ball off to an aging RB 5-6 yards deep than to let Josh sneak it in.  This is a statistical mistake 100% of the time, regardless if the shotgun run works or not and regardless if the QB sneak play works or not.  100% of the time you run out of shotgun over letting Allen sneak it from inside the 1 is a statistical mistake.  

 

36 minutes ago, Franco_92 said:

 

Also, I think @HoofHeartedhas posted it enough that we should stop calling the play "draw." They have not run a draw at the goal line this year, and the play everyone calls "shotgun draw" is dart, which we run very successfully and which sets up everyone's favorite RPOs that we gash teams with.

 

No disrespect to anyone, but he is incorrect if he is saying the 3rd and goal run on the 1 yard line was a dart against the Bucs.  

 

A draw is a run play that is made to look like a pass play, hence why it is run a lot of shotgun.  It is meant to attack the A gap, which is exactly what Murray did and was done right off the snap from shotgun.  The dart is different than the "draw" play and more resembles a power and is where you have the tackle pulling.  Our tackles did not pull on the 3rd down shotgun run and it was a clear draw.  

 

I can not tell you about the week before as I did not go back and look at it, but I am pretty sure it was also a draw, but again, can't confirm without rewatching it which I will try and do later.  

 

I am not saying we don't run a dart in our playbook, but the goal line play against the Bucs was a draw and not a dart, and I don't think the one the week before was either but still need to see it again to confirm.  But honestly, it doesn't matter...dart or draw, it was a terrible play call.  

Edited November 3, 2023 by Alphadawg7