Shotgun at the 1 Yard Line

[Franco_92]

I found this cool site that turns NFL play by play data into csvs for easy manipulation: https://nflsavant.com/about.php

 

I downloaded the data for the 4 seasons Allen has been elite to see the answer to the question - do we really need to stop running shotgun plays at the 1 yard line? 

 

I posted this image in the Steelers/Titans GDT last night, which only covers run plays. But it suggests that whatever run play you wish to do, there's nothing particularly wrong with lining up in shotgun instead of under center. And I postulated that the Bills probably prefer shotgun because it spreads the defense out which helps out our OL among other things, as our OL is definitely built with a slant towards athleticism rather than brute power. But that's speculation, and the stats don't include pass plays. So what has happened since Allen has been elite and we've ran plays from the 1 yard line? 

If I am parsing the data correctly, the Bills have run 40 plays from the 1 yard line since 2020. Note that in 2020, there is ambiguity on 3 plays, where they are classified as simply "NO HUDDLE" versus "SHOTGUN", "UNDER CENTER", or "NO HUDDLE SHOTGUN". I am going to take those 3 no-huddle plays as being under center, since shotgun was explicitly mentioned as a category in no huddle plays. Unfortunately, the data does not easily parse between QB sneaks and regular handoffs.

 

BUFFALO BILLS

15 of these plays have been in shotgun, and so 25 plays were run under center. 37.5% of the time when the Bills have been on the 1 yard line in the last 3.5 years, they've opted for shotgun. 

6 of the 15 shotgun plays scored touchdowns: 40%
15 of the 25 under center plays scored touchdowns: 60%

Broken down further,
 

Pass Plays, shotgun: 2 touchdowns on 7 attempts, or 29% touchdown rate
Run Plays, shotgun: 4 touchdowns on 8 attempts, or 50% touchdown rate
Pass Plays, under center: 8 touchdowns on 11 attempts, or 73% touchdown rate (no attempts this year)
Run Plays, under center: 7 touchdowns on 14 attempts, or 50% touchdown rate 

 

It appears that fans are right that we should not be passing out of shotgun, at least. Running plays have the same success rate during Allen's successful seasons whether they're run from shotgun or from under center, but it looks like we need to start passing from under center significantly more when we are at the 1 yard line - despite Allen's success there, Dorsey has only called 1 pass play in that situation in 2 years. 

 

Again, this is a ONE-YARD-LINE discussion, not red zone or even goal-to-go. There is probably significantly less fan angst in lining up in shotgun at first and goal from the 7. 

 

REST OF LEAGUE
At the one yard line since 2020, these same numbers for all non-Buffalo teams:
 

388 of these plays have been in shotgun, and 767 plays were run under center. 33.6% of the time when non-Bills NFL teams have been on the 1 yard line in the last 3.5 years, they've opted for shotgun, so the Bills use shotgun slightly more frequently than the rest of the teams, though not appreciably.  

213 of the 388 shotgun plays scored touchdowns: 56%
455 of the 766 under center plays scored touchdowns: 59%

Broken down further,
 

Pass Plays, shotgun: 83 touchdowns on 173 attempts, or 48% touchdown rate
Run Plays, shotgun: 130 touchdowns on 215 attempts, or 60% touchdown rate
Pass Plays, under center: 100 touchdowns on 181 attempts, or 55% touchdown rate (no attempts this year)
Run Plays, under center: 355 touchdowns on 585 attempts, or 61% touchdown rate 

 

CONCLUSION
Non-Bills teams are best running from the 1 yard line, with essentially equal success rates running from shotgun or under center, since 2020. They experience a very slight decline in success rate passing from under center, and a slightly bigger decline passing from shotgun. The numbers are close enough that the wide variance in team skills and strengths would suggest that many teams could find their home from preferring any of these plays, that none should be inherently off the table, especially since the NFL is about avoiding tendencies.

 

The Bills are worse than the league baseline at the 1 yard line at any sort of run play, and at passing from shotgun, which they are VERY bad at. They are significantly better than the rest of the league at passing under center from the 1. The Bills have equal success running out of shotgun vs. running under center just like the league does, though if they truly stop passing out of shotgun, perhaps the run success rate would decline because teams would know what they are doing. Which is probably why they keep passing out of shotgun every now and again. Dorsey clearly prefers shotgun at the 1 for some reason, relative to Daboll. It'd be cool to ask him about it. 

Edited November 3, 2023 by Franco_92

[BillsFan130]

1 minute ago, Buffalo619 said:

Yes. Shotgun pistol draw to be specific. Never ever want to see that again on the One. I believe This is what Is going to cost Dorsey his job. 

This is where McDermott needs to be a leader and tell him to stop running shotgun at the 1 yard line though.

 

Should be an easy fix. (“Should” being the key word)

[WotAGuy]

Is this your PhD thesis and in what program will you get your degree?  
 

Well done!  Appreciate all the time and effort that took to share something very useful!

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

There is also a difference between 1 yard (a full yard) goal to go. vs. having the ball spotted at the half yard line which I think was the case against the Bucs. At the half yard line you can also just consider calling Allen to jump and extend the ball over the line. 

 

I don't really mind Allen running out of shotgun from the half or one yard line, but I do hate a shotgun hand off. But really, should just sneak it every time. With or without the tush push. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

Somewhat obvious with the success of the tush push.

[boater]

26 minutes ago, Franco_92 said:

Dorsey clearly prefers shotgun at the 1 for some reason, relative to Daboll. It'd be cool to ask him about it. 

I don't think he would say much. There's probably some obscure reason he does it and would not disclose for competitive reasons.

 

Shotgun at the 1 is illogical, said Spock. Dorsey must justify it in his mind with some really contorted logic.

[Dunkirk Donski]

Could this play be a result of Josh's shoulder and the coaching staff wanting to limit contact? 

[Special K]

7 minutes ago, Dunkirk Donski said:

Could this play be a result of Josh's shoulder and the coaching staff wanting to limit contact? 

 

His injury may limit their use of the tush push, but the next best option in their mind should not be the shotgun draw, IMO.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

I don't know why 100% of the time the Bills don't look at the ball at the 1 yard line as 4-down territory with 3rd and 4th down both QB sneaks to Allen. 

 

Worst case the opponent takes over at their 1/2-yard line. 

 

Edited November 3, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Dat]

Everyone thinks we signed Linval Joseph to shore up the D line, but really he is our new short yard specialist. 
I just hope he’s never the pusher.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Somebody call the analytics department 🙂

[Franco_92]

44 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

This is where McDermott needs to be a leader and tell him to stop running shotgun at the 1 yard line though.

 

Should be an easy fix. (“Should” being the key word)

I don't think the data is saying "No shotgun at the 1". It is saying "Do not pass out of the shotgun as frequently as you do." 

 

Again, the shotgun run touchdown rate is the same for the bills and the league as the under-center run. Unfortunately this data includes QB runs in both, so it's hard to tell success rate of that by itself or of non-QB runs. I'm not sure if the Bills are bad at the handoffs and great at the QB runs, but league-wide, both are very successful plays. 

The Bills need to pass from under center more frequently when they get to the 1. This will also help their run success eventually, because right now any team that has a stats department knows we aren't passing if we line up under center.

26 minutes ago, Dunkirk Donski said:

Could this play be a result of Josh's shoulder and the coaching staff wanting to limit contact? 

I absolutely think so. I think as long as his shoulder is sore, they will limit the tush push type sneak at the goal line unless it's a very late down. My speculation of course. 

42 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

Is this your PhD thesis and in what program will you get your degree?  
 

Well done!  Appreciate all the time and effort that took to share something very useful!

Thanks! Luckily that site did the hard work, I just downloaded the csvs and played with Pandas DataFrames for about 20 minutes. 

[Alphadawg7]

When it is 3rd and goal from the 1 or less, there is only 1 call to be made and that is a sneak or tush push when you have Josh Allen as your QB.  If its first or 2nd down and you want to call something else, fine.  Once you get to 3rd down, the only acceptable option is a sneak or tush push.  It is without a doubt has the highest % conversion rate over any other play they can call.  There is a reason the Eagles don't even wast time with other plays and just lineup and dare the other teams to stop it which they almost never stop. 

 

If Dorsey calls a run from shotgun in that situation again he should be fired on the spot.  I am serious, it is that egregious.  To do it in back to back weeks is a fireable offense, which he did.  Both instances we lost yards, one we converted the TD on 4th down, and the other we did not convert on 4th down and we almost lost that game on a final hail mary play where not getting points there would have been the difference in the game.  

 

I swear, if he does it a 3rd time then instead of him throwing his headset in disgust, someone needs to throw him out of the booth in disgust.  

[Franco_92]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

When it is 3rd and goal from the 1 or less, there is only 1 call to be made and that is a sneak or tush push when you have Josh Allen as your QB.  If its first or 2nd down and you want to call something else, fine.  Once you get to 3rd down, the only acceptable option is a sneak or tush push.  It is without a doubt has the highest % conversion rate over any other play they can call.  There is a reason the Eagles don't even wast time with other plays and just lineup and dare the other teams to stop it which they almost never stop. 

 

If Dorsey calls a run from shotgun in that situation again he should be fired on the spot.  I am serious, it is that egregious.  To do it in back to back weeks is a fireable offense, which he did.  Both instances we lost yards, one we converted the TD on 4th down, and the other we did not convert on 4th down and we almost lost that game on a final hail mary play where not getting points there would have been the difference in the game.  

 

I swear, if he does it a 3rd time then instead of him throwing his headset in disgust, someone needs to throw him out of the booth in disgust.  

Didn't it take 3 tries to get in against New England? Or was it just 2? It's not automatic, nothing is. 

I have no problem with the general take that they need to make sure they at least try the sneak every time. 

I don't think Dorsey has been close to "fireable" at the 1 yard line, we have the second best red zone offense

[The Wiz]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

When it is 3rd and goal from the 1 or less, there is only 1 call to be made and that is a sneak or tush push when you have Josh Allen as your QB.  If its first or 2nd down and you want to call something else, fine.  Once you get to 3rd down, the only acceptable option is a sneak or tush push.  It is without a doubt has the highest % conversion rate over any other play they can call.  There is a reason the Eagles don't even wast time with other plays and just lineup and dare the other teams to stop it which they almost never stop. 

 

If Dorsey calls a run from shotgun in that situation again he should be fired on the spot.  I am serious, it is that egregious.  To do it in back to back weeks is a fireable offense, which he did.  Both instances we lost yards, one we converted the TD on 4th down, and the other we did not convert on 4th down and we almost lost that game on a final hail mary play where not getting points there would have been the difference in the game.  

 

I swear, if he does it a 3rd time then instead of him throwing his headset in disgust, someone needs to throw him out of the booth in disgust.  

QB sneak/tush push/whatever you want to call it has an 85.9% success rate on 3rd or 4th and 1 since 2017.

 

But let's have the ball start 5 yards back from the original spot to make it interesting.😠

Edited November 3, 2023 by The Wiz

[HoofHearted]

1 hour ago, Buffalo619 said:

Yes. Shotgun pistol draw to be specific. Never ever want to see that again on the One. I believe This is what Is going to cost Dorsey his job. 

If we want to get into specifics Shotgun and Pistol are two totally different things, and we haven't run a draw at the 1 yard line... ever.

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, Franco_92 said:

Didn't it take 3 tries to get in against New England? Or was it just 2? It's not automatic, nothing is. 

I have no problem with the general take that they need to make sure they at least try the sneak every time. 

I don't think Dorsey has been close to "fireable" at the 1 yard line, we have the second best red zone offense

 

Josh Allen sneak on 1 or less yards to go is going to have the highest mathematical conversion rate, that was really the point.  

 

But to be clear, I wasn't saying not running a QB sneak was a fireable offense, I said that he should be fired if for a 3rd week in a row he calls a running play out of shotgun on the goal line on 3rd down with less than a yard to go (and with an old RB past his prime).  To do it a 2nd time after it worked so poorly the week before was bad enough.  If he does it 3 weeks in a row I might just splurge for a Billboard.  

[Franco_92]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Josh Allen sneak on 1 or less yards to go is going to have the highest mathematical conversion rate, that was really the point.  

 

But to be clear, I wasn't saying not running a QB sneak was a fireable offense, I said that he should be fired if for a 3rd week in a row he calls a running play out of shotgun on the goal line on 3rd down with less than a yard to go (and with an old RB past his prime).  To do it a 2nd time after it worked so poorly the week before was bad enough.  If he does it 3 weeks in a row I might just splurge for a Billboard.  

Fair. I'm on board with requiring him to call that play every sequence we start at the 1. I do wonder if they combine a few factors including his shoulder to try other things first unless the game is on the line (ie, they didn't call it against Tampa on their first drive, but they called it multiple times until they scored with under 2 left vs NE down by a score)

 

Not justifying that thought process but I bet it's there. In general they aren't faced with many plays at the 1. 40 of them over 57 games is less than one attempt at the one per game 

 

We almost seem more likely to sneak on 1 to go away from the end zone than from the goal line which is interesting, I wonder if that holds up in data 

[Einstein's Dog]

49 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I don't know why 100% of the time the Bills don't look at the ball at the 1 yard line as 4-down territory with 3rd and 4th down both QB sneaks to Allen. 

 

Worst case the opponent takes over at their 1/2-yard line. 

 

Actually the worst case would be Allen out for the year with an injury. 

 

People seem to have a hard time realizing one item of emphasis has been to run Allen less to minimize his chances of getting hurt.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Somewhat obvious with the success of the tush push.

Or how bout a naked bootleg when the entire planet knows you're running that failed draw. How many times must Dorsey witness his play fail before he scrubs it completely?