We're overhyping the Bengals

[PatsFanNH]

I expect a shoot out in this game.  If I am honest I expect the Bengals pull it off with a 2 minute TD drive to win by 7.  

 

BENGALS 45

Bills 35

 

New threads Monday be “what’s wrong with the O?” “is Josh hurt”… or “it’s not the D fault” 

[BigDingus]

Can we stop the thing we do every year where we ignore very distressing patterns in favor of overall record/stats, just to help cover up the issues?

 

Bills first 4 games - 139 points for / 55 points against (+84 differential / 3-1 record)

Bills last 4 games - 78 points for / 81 points against (-3 differential / 2-2 record)

 

Bengals first 4 games - 49 points for / 94 points against (-45 differential / 1-3 record)

Bengals last 3 games - 82 points for / 50 points against (+32 differential / 3-0 record)

 

So unless games from 1 month ago matter, I think we should start paying attention to RECENT play, and not overall record/stats. 

 

Also worth noting, the Bills last 4 games were against the 6-2 Jags, 2-6 Patriots, 2-6 Giants, and 3-4 Bucs... those are the opponents we faced during our RECENT bad stretch. Bengals have scored more points in 3 games than we have in 4. They also beat 2 teams with winning records, we beat 0. 

 

Sure, it looks nice to say we have a +81 point differential vs the Bengals -13, or that our defense has 8 INTs vs the Bengals 10 INTs, but when you've had 0 INTs & a negative point differential in the last month, how does that help predict the upcoming game?

 

I'm not saying we're going to lose, and I get everyone wants to be optimistic hoping to manifest a win into existence, but nobody is "overhyping" the Bengals, they're just keeping a modest mindset.

[Steptide]

Here's the thing. Bengals look better yes. BUT, they beat a bad Cardinals team, a mediocre Seahawks team (by 4 points) and a 49ers team who I believe is In a slump. The 9ers win is their most impressive, but Purdy has been kinda lousy lately, and Im not quite sure the Bengals beat the 9ers at their best. Having said that, the Bengals are a good team, and the bills having lost to the Patriots and jets doesn't give me a huge amount of confidence, but this is a game the bills should win if they have super bowl aspirations 

Edited November 2, 2023 by Steptide

[Royale with Cheese]

30 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

I expect a shoot out in this game.  If I am honest I expect the Bengals pull it off with a 2 minute TD drive to win by 7.  

 

BENGALS 45

Bills 35

 

New threads Monday be “what’s wrong with the O?” “is Josh hurt”… or “it’s not the D fault” 

I hope you don’t have hot water in the morning.

[Success]

13 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

Can we stop the thing we do every year where we ignore very distressing patterns in favor of overall record/stats, just to help cover up the issues?

 

Bills first 4 games - 139 points for / 55 points against (+84 differential / 3-1 record)

Bills last 4 games - 78 points for / 81 points against (-3 differential / 2-2 record)

 

Bengals first 4 games - 49 points for / 94 points against (-45 differential / 1-3 record)

Bengals last 3 games - 82 points for / 50 points against (+32 differential / 3-0 record)

 

So unless games from 1 month ago matter, I think we should start paying attention to RECENT play, and not overall record/stats. 

 

Also worth noting, the Bills last 4 games were against the 6-2 Jags, 2-6 Patriots, 2-6 Giants, and 3-4 Bucs... those are the opponents we faced during our RECENT bad stretch. Bengals have scored more points in 3 games than we have in 4. They also beat 2 teams with winning records, we beat 0. 

 

Sure, it looks nice to say we have a +81 point differential vs the Bengals -13, or that our defense has 8 INTs vs the Bengals 10 INTs, but when you've had 0 INTs & a negative point differential in the last month, how does that help predict the upcoming game?

 

I'm not saying we're going to lose, and I get everyone wants to be optimistic hoping to manifest a win into existence, but nobody is "overhyping" the Bengals, they're just keeping a modest mindset.

 

Re: the bolded - are you sure we're reading the same posts on this board?

 

I'd say close to half the posts I've seen have either said we have no chance at all, or will need everything to go our way to eek out a win.

 

This is a good match-up, of good & pretty evenly matched teams.  I'd give Cincy an edge as the home team coming off a big win, but that's about it.

 

[RichRiderBills]

2 hours ago, TheBrownBear said:

We're nine pages deep, so I'm certain it's already been said, but our "overhyping" of the Bengals is based on them absolutely owning us in the 5+ quarters we played against them last year.  I'm not inclined to downplay the Bengals until we prove we can hang with them.  

 

The Chiefs have owned us, the Ravens owned us , so did the Titans. We beat them all eventually. 

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

2 hours ago, chongli said:

Joe Burrow was just named AFC Player of the Week. Why do we have to play him now when he's hot?

 

 

Just six more wins and he will equal the 12 that Allen has won. 

[Governor]

1 hour ago, PatsFanNH said:

I expect a shoot out in this game.  If I am honest I expect the Bengals pull it off with a 2 minute TD drive to win by 7.  

 

BENGALS 45

Bills 35

 

New threads Monday be “what’s wrong with the O?” “is Josh hurt”… or “it’s not the D fault” 

I don’t think the Bengals can score that many points. I see it more like a 28-24 type game.

[PatsFanNH]

Just now, Governor said:

I don’t think the Bengals can score that many points. I see it more like a 28-24 type game.

It could be! I am just expecting a high scoring game. I am not impressed with either Defense.  I just give the Bengals the nod since they are at home.

[Royale with Cheese]

I think the Bengals are hyped at the right level.  They are good.  If they beat us, they will be more hyped.

[TheBrownBear]

1 hour ago, RichRiderBills said:

 

The Chiefs have owned us, the Ravens owned us , so did the Titans. We beat them all eventually. 

I agree and that gives me hope for Sunday.  But I need to see it on the field.  Let's go!

[Bookie Man]

If we win it's gonna have to be a 35- 31 type game. Going to be one of those games where you have to go for it on a few 4th downs. 

[BigAl2526]

McDermott has to figure out the Bengals and the team has to execute far better than they have in the last few games, but it is absolutely not an impossible task.

[Franco_92]

14 hours ago, mjt328 said:

Nobody wants to hear it.  But maybe the Bills are the ones overhyped.

 

Everything about the last full season of play tells me that Cincinnati is the far superior team.   

 

Sorry man, but everyone and their mother thinks it's fashionable to dunk on the Bills. So who exactly is overrating them? The optimistic Bills fans, who will only go as far as saying "I think and hope the Bills can win this game if they show up" ? Why is that an unreasonable take? 

Versus the hordes of people telling us in no uncertain terms to take the Bengals and the line because Cincinnati is definitely going to destroy us - Cincinnati, who QB injury or not, has played exactly one good game against a real NFL team this year? And who looked far worse in weeks 1-4, and the game before SF, than the Bills have looked in most games this year? If you can say Burrow's injury plays a role, I can say that so did losing 33% of our starting defense. And after 3 games of disturbing trends from that, we finally saw a change in concavity on that regard. 

 

Burrow was healthy for Seattle and after the first two drives couldn't do *****. Why does he get a pass for that? They have beaten a crappy NFC division and lost every single AFC matchup they've played. 

 

They are absolutely capable of beating the Bills, and even beating them handily. I trust their track record and think they've figured it out. This is a concession infinitely further than everyone who talks like you is willing to go for a Bills team with a longer, better track record. That is why we have so little patience for the people who seem to live to come here and B word when things aren't going as good as they possibly can.

[Boatdrinks]

6 hours ago, PauleeeWalnuts said:

Hard to be confident when they pushed the Bills around the last two times we saw them. They are on the upswing and the Bills are just barely treading water. This could get ugly come Sunday night, Buffalo really doesn't play well on prime time and the Bengals are in their heads. 

Pretty sure Josh Allen ( and subsequently the Bills ) has a pretty good record in prime time games. Maybe I’m wrong but I’m sure someone will chime in . The Bengals are in their heads after essentially a single game ? Seems silly but the legend grows seemingly by the day around here. 

[Boatdrinks]

2 hours ago, BigDingus said:

Can we stop the thing we do every year where we ignore very distressing patterns in favor of overall record/stats, just to help cover up the issues?

 

Bills first 4 games - 139 points for / 55 points against (+84 differential / 3-1 record)

Bills last 4 games - 78 points for / 81 points against (-3 differential / 2-2 record)

 

Bengals first 4 games - 49 points for / 94 points against (-45 differential / 1-3 record)

Bengals last 3 games - 82 points for / 50 points against (+32 differential / 3-0 record)

 

So unless games from 1 month ago matter, I think we should start paying attention to RECENT play, and not overall record/stats. 

 

Also worth noting, the Bills last 4 games were against the 6-2 Jags, 2-6 Patriots, 2-6 Giants, and 3-4 Bucs... those are the opponents we faced during our RECENT bad stretch. Bengals have scored more points in 3 games than we have in 4. They also beat 2 teams with winning records, we beat 0. 

 

Sure, it looks nice to say we have a +81 point differential vs the Bengals -13, or that our defense has 8 INTs vs the Bengals 10 INTs, but when you've had 0 INTs & a negative point differential in the last month, how does that help predict the upcoming game?

 

I'm not saying we're going to lose, and I get everyone wants to be optimistic hoping to manifest a win into existence, but nobody is "overhyping" the Bengals, they're just keeping a modest mindset.

I disagree. While their recent play cannot be overlooked , they’ve played better , a LOT better this season. Not in 2021 or 2020, but this season. Even Vs better teams than they’ve played recently. If you assume that recent trends will continue on indefinitely, the same should have held true for good trends, no ? It did not. Truth is none of us know when or if the Bills will find their earlier rhythm. Or if the Bengals recent stretch of better play will continue. I’m nowhere near certain of a win : it’s a game the Bills could easily lose. I also don’t think the Bengals are the best team in the NFL, or even the AFC for that matter. The balanced opinion - that the Bills can absolutely win this game - is not the extreme opinion here. That would be the one that says since they lost an earlier matchup , and played very poorly in doing so they are doomed to get a similar effort and result on Sunday night. 

[ColoradoBills]

You guys are going to burn yourselves out before Sunday Night.  

 

What kind of game it will be is unknown and that's why it's going to be great to see how it unfolds!

[Franco_92]

4 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Pretty sure Josh Allen ( and subsequently the Bills ) has a pretty good record in prime time games. Maybe I’m wrong but I’m sure someone will chime in . The Bengals are in their heads after essentially a single game ? Seems silly but the legend grows seemingly by the day around here. 

Josh Allen is one of the best 2 or 3 prime time QBs in the history of the NFL. They are 5-0 on Sunday night, 6-0 on Thursday night, but 3-4 on Monday night I believe. Might be slightly off. 

 

 

Highlighted are his career splits in "Late" games

[seattlebillsfan]

I feel very good about this game; believe the team recognizes it should have lost 4 straight, but didn’t, has played its worst football, has reinforcements coming in, has #17 about to explode, and is headed for 14-3 and home field advantage. This is game 1 of an epic run. 
 

[DuckyBoys]

Bengals had two weeks to prepare for the 49ers and based on that outcome they are now juggernauts  Recent result bias at its best  Few weeks ago they were being buried.  I wont be shocked by an outcome either way but think the Bills are due for a big win and Josh typically lights it up in prime time games.  I would think he and Diggs are still seething after the flat playoff performance