Bengals Early 1.5 Point Favourites — Vegas More Optimistic About the Bills Than Many?

[harryS]

Wednesday morning and line is 2.5 (juiced) across the board.  There's been the expected minor movement towards Cincy but not the drastic movement some predicted.  At one point the screen did flash 3s but it was quickly bet back down to 2.5.  Definitely don't see this line becoming -3 (-110), and 3.5 is out of the question barring major new injury news.

 

On 10/30/2023 at 6:59 AM, newcam2012 said:

I don't find the references of last year being pertinent now. The Bills were the super bowl favorites and the darlings on many in the NFL. They were often over bet and the betting lines were often slightly inaccurate. This year isn't the case especially with the injuries. 

 

Given that we are 0-4 against the spread since the injuries, I'd say that we are again overvalued due to the injuries.

 

On 10/30/2023 at 9:36 AM, BuffaloBaumer said:

I have never bet on an NFL game but I think I have to for this one. My biggest fear is putting $500 down and then the Bills lose by 1

 

You should just bet the Bengals moneyline (Bengals to win outright, no spread) then.  It's not usually a recommended bet when you can get -2.5 because you're eating much more juice but given your fears, that's the way to go.

 

On 10/30/2023 at 1:59 PM, Big Turk said:

 

You would win if the line is Bengals -1.5, Bills would have to lose by 2 to lose that bet.

 

He's talking about betting on Cincy, not Buffalo.  He doesn't want to bet $500 on Cincy spread and then have the Bills lose by 1 or 2.  That's a double whammy.

[Dr.Sack]

I think the Bills win and the smart $ on the Bengals is actually stupid $ thinking these are the same teams as last year. 

[nedboy7]

On 10/30/2023 at 3:17 PM, Tierlifer said:

Too many spoilers in this thread of what the final score will be. Guess I shouldn’t bother to watch. 

 

Don't watch.  Start crafting your "why we should fire everyone" posts. 

[Reks Ryan]

On 10/31/2023 at 6:10 AM, Doc Brown said:

Jaguars were an inconsistent team up to that point and we were just coming off of a thrashing of Miami by 28 points.  Patriots were +8.5 (not +11.5) and had lost three in a row being outscored 93-20.  

That’s why 11,5 seemed questionable to me.

[harryS]

On 11/1/2023 at 5:53 AM, harryS said:

Wednesday morning and line is 2.5 (juiced) across the board.  There's been the expected minor movement towards Cincy but not the drastic movement some predicted.  At one point the screen did flash 3s but it was quickly bet back down to 2.5.  Definitely don't see this line becoming -3 (-110), and 3.5 is out of the question barring major new injury news.

 

 

Even the minor movement has been eliminated as we're back to mostly 2s and 1.5s across the board.  As always, lines don't move big the way many fans think they do. 

[Warcodered]

On 10/30/2023 at 4:20 AM, newcam2012 said:

Well I'm a small better and never bet too much. It's all relative. I bet $300. That's a lot for me. 

Come on live a little, $5000 is the proper amount......for reasons.

Edited November 4, 2023 by Warcodered

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Warcodered said:

Come on live a little, $5000 is the proper amount......for reasons.

That's way out of my league. 

[buffaloboyinATL]

3 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

That's way out of my league. 

Smart man. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 

[newcam2012]

On 11/1/2023 at 5:46 PM, Dr.Sack said:

I think the Bills win and the smart $ on the Bengals is actually stupid $ thinking these are the same teams as last year. 

I disagree here. Just look at this season. The Bengals are playing well especially on offense with a healthy Burrow. I believe his passer rating is fantastic the last three games. 

 

The Bengals are at home and that is a nice advantage. Add in all of Buffalo's losses have been away from their home field. That has to be figured into your calculations. 

 

Buffalo has been fairly inconsistent on both sides of the ball. 

 

Last years games also have to be taken into consideration. Coaching, players, schemes, adjustments, game planning, etc...Sure there are many new variables to consider in both sides of the ball. Edge here seems to go to the Bengals because they seemingly already have the winning formula. Now it's up to Buffalo to execute, game plan, and make the proper adjustments. 

 

Lastly, Bills injuries to the defense are definitely game changing in a negative way. Add in a Von that's not even close to being elite. Huge uphill battle for McD to slow down the Bengals offense. Frankly, I don't see this D being successful. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bengals put up 40 plus points. 

 

The Bills offense needs to be a well oiled machine. Almost flawless. I'm advocating for an up tempo offense. Limit what the Bengals D can do. Fast, quick, accurate, RPOs, and take your shots when they are there. Allen has to have great vision this game. Lou A will try to pressure him, confuse him, and frustrate him. Lastly, the Bengals D is poor against running QBs. Allen can easily run for over 50 yards. Force the Bengals to defend Allen's run game. 

 

All in all, I think this line is really strange. I think it's a Bengals -3 all day. 

[Doc Brown]

On 10/30/2023 at 3:51 AM, newcam2012 said:

The line has already moved to -2.5. By kick off the line should be -3.5. 

 

I already hammered the Bengals at -2.5. 

The line's really don't move that much unless there's a major unforeseen injury (usually QB).  Vegas has it down to a science when setting the lines.  It's basically back where it started at Bengals -1.5 points.

[SydneyBillsFan]

On a side note, nearly all of the pundits are tipping the Bengals.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

The line's really don't move that much unless there's a major unforeseen injury (usually QB).  Vegas has it down to a science when setting the lines.  It's basically back where it started at Bengals -1.5 points.

Supposedly a lot of the sharp money is on the bills and that’s balancing out a lot of the public betting cincy 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

12 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I disagree here. Just look at this season. The Bengals are playing well especially on offense with a healthy Burrow. I believe his passer rating is fantastic the last three games. 

 

The Bengals are at home and that is a nice advantage. Add in all of Buffalo's losses have been away from their home field. That has to be figured into your calculations. 

 

Buffalo has been fairly inconsistent on both sides of the ball. 

 

Last years games also have to be taken into consideration. Coaching, players, schemes, adjustments, game planning, etc...Sure there are many new variables to consider in both sides of the ball. Edge here seems to go to the Bengals because they seemingly already have the winning formula. Now it's up to Buffalo to execute, game plan, and make the proper adjustments. 

 

Lastly, Bills injuries to the defense are definitely game changing in a negative way. Add in a Von that's not even close to being elite. Huge uphill battle for McD to slow down the Bengals offense. Frankly, I don't see this D being successful. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bengals put up 40 plus points. 

 

The Bills offense needs to be a well oiled machine. Almost flawless. I'm advocating for an up tempo offense. Limit what the Bengals D can do. Fast, quick, accurate, RPOs, and take your shots when they are there. Allen has to have great vision this game. Lou A will try to pressure him, confuse him, and frustrate him. Lastly, the Bengals D is poor against running QBs. Allen can easily run for over 50 yards. Force the Bengals to defend Allen's run game. 

 

All in all, I think this line is really strange. I think it's a Bengals -3 all day. 

Cincy hasn’t played particularly well before last week and their SF win is getting overvalued by the more casual bettors imo.  Spread seems just right which is why it hasn’t moved much.  The betting public thinks like you, the sharps don’t

 

Tennessee absolutely obliterated them, arizona played them tough well into the fourth quarter, and they were quite fortunate to sneak past Seattle prior to the niners game. I don’t really understand the notion that they’ve played lights out the last few weeks at all. 

Edited November 5, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Supposedly a lot of the sharp money is on the bills and that’s balancing out a lot of the public betting cincy 

Sharp money is on the over. 

[harryS]

56 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Sharp money is on the over. 

 

Absolutely right.

 

4 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Supposedly a lot of the sharp money is on the bills and that’s balancing out a lot of the public betting cincy 

 

This one is more speculative, but why not, let's speculate.  Among public sharps (those that share their picks on podcasts, twitter, etc, after they have already bet), there has been more of a sharp preference for Cincy although it is by no means unanimous as some sharps disagree and back Buffalo.  It's not like the over, which is heavily backed by the sharps.  I do think the public sharps are representative of the overall sharp pool, so why hasn't this line moved when both the public and the sharps favor the Bengals.

 

Ah, here's the rub.  There's a subset of the sharp pool called "syndicates."  These are rich men, many with a background in math and finance -- some come from Wall Street -- and they pool their money together kind of like a hedge fund and have decided they want to conquer NFL betting using mathematical models.  These guys wait to bet later in the week when the sportsbooks have fully removed the limits, so the syndicate can drop $100,000 on the Bills if they want to.

 

Why would the syndicates prefer Buffalo?  Remember, these guys are math nerds.  Buffalo's season-long stats are way better than Cincy's.  They probably have Buffalo favored by 1 in this game or something.

[DuckyBoys]

5 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Cincy hasn’t played particularly well before last week and their SF win is getting overvalued by the more casual bettors imo.  Spread seems just right which is why it hasn’t moved much.  The betting public thinks like you, the sharps don’t

 

Tennessee absolutely obliterated them, arizona played them tough well into the fourth quarter, and they were quite fortunate to sneak past Seattle prior to the niners game. I don’t really understand the notion that they’ve played lights out the last few weeks at all. 

 

Bengals are being over hyped  Typical media spin after a team has a big decisive win  .  Burrow has two really good games this year and some real clunkers .   My biggest worry is can Josh operate efficiently on the road.   He has not played his best on the road this year .  Hopefully rest of the team comes to play and contributes and it does not land all on his back .  That is a tall ask but will see.   Bills need to be able to run today be it conventional or giving Josh some designed runs and hopefully a few scrambles for first downs.