Bengals Early 1.5 Point Favourites — Vegas More Optimistic About the Bills Than Many?

[LABILLBACKER]

9 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

Home advantage line for years has been 1.5 so Vegas is basically saying it’s an even game.  I watched the Bengals game yesterday and they look more complete than us right now.  That doesn’t mean the Bills can’t come out like they played in the Dolphins game.  This will be our toughest test.

Minimize the incessant Hamlin narrative.  Hope for that good ole revenge factor...and maybe,  just maybe we pull this one out.  

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

I hear ya. It’ll be tough but I’ll try to live with some anonymous people not believing without seeing receipts. 

In that case let me regale you w how difficult it was for me as a Bills fan to put down 10k on Patriots +345 the other week

[jletha]

10 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

Home advantage line for years has been 1.5 so Vegas is basically saying it’s an even game.  I watched the Bengals game yesterday and they look more complete than us right now.  That doesn’t mean the Bills can’t come out like they played in the Dolphins game.  This will be our toughest test.

Its also only one game. They have looked downright bad many times this season, including one week prior. Much worse than Buffalo.

 

We will see Sunday.

[Augie]

19 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

In that case let me regale you w how difficult it was for me as a Bills fan to put down 10k on Patriots +345 the other week

 

But….did you tell your wife?

 

 

  😋

[Reks Ryan]

In general I think Vegas has been more optimistic on the Bills the last 2 seassons  than many of us who follow the team closely.  

Bills were 8 - 10 ATS in 2022, and 3 - 5 ATS so far this year.   So .423 winning % the last 2 seasons.  

 

There were a couple speads recently that seeemd really questionable, Bills minus 5 against Jacksonville and minus 11.5 against the Patriots.    I expected the Bills to win both games, but it seemed like there were factors going into those games that shoudl have made the spreads lower.   Personally, I don't bet against the Bills.   And usually don't bet on the Bills , except for playoffs. And I do that hoping to spend the winnings on SB trip, not necessarily because it's a good bet.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

Not gonna lie...after the Miami game I felt like we would be heading into this Cincy game not only favorites, but as the much better team.  Today, I don't feel confident in this game.  Can we win, sure...just not heading in with the same confidence I had heading into the Miami game for example.

 

Since our injuries, our defense is a shell of itself and Bengals offense is starting to click again who just had a lot of success against a better Niners defense.  For us to win this game, Allen and the offense need to be on point and just outscore them.  The issue is, the offense has not looked great since the Miami game either.  Against Jags we put up 20, Giants we managed only 14 points, then put up just 25 on Pats and then 24 against the Bucs.  We have not broken 25 since Miami game and only done so in 3 of our 8 games this season.

 

We won't beat the Bengals putting up 20-25 points this week.  So I really hope Dorsey looks at what worked in the first half against the Bucs and builds on that because we need to be at our best to win this game.  And make no mistake about it, this Bengals game is close to a playoff game given the crowded field in the AFC right now.  If we lose this game, we will have 4 losses, all in the AFC and the division will be difficult to win and the Wildcard race will be very crowded with us being behind on tie breakers.  

 

So I just pray Dorsey gets rid of the stupid stuff (like idiotic shotgun runs on the goal line) and focuses on the things that were really working, especially the things we did to get Shakir and Kincaid going as that opened up the whole offense.  And they better keep the foot on the gas the whole time, letting up in the 2nd half allowed the lowly Bucs offense to get back into the game late with a shot to win on the final play.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[90sBills]

41 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

In that case let me regale you w how difficult it was for me as a Bills fan to put down 10k on Patriots +345 the other week

You should stop. Similar to chess one knows not to drag things out. It’s pointless. 

[Tierlifer]

Too many spoilers in this thread of what the final score will be. Guess I shouldn’t bother to watch. 

[HIT BY SPIKES]

11 hours ago, Tierlifer said:

Too many spoilers in this thread of what the final score will be. Guess I shouldn’t bother to watch. 

 

Good idea!!!

[Aussie Joe]

Left nutt time..
 

Which way to go ?

 

My Bills season record versus the spread is 6-2 (Jets and Patriots 👎)

[Doc Brown]

13 hours ago, Reks Ryan said:

In general I think Vegas has been more optimistic on the Bills the last 2 seassons  than many of us who follow the team closely.  

Bills were 8 - 10 ATS in 2022, and 3 - 5 ATS so far this year.   So .423 winning % the last 2 seasons.  

 

There were a couple speads recently that seeemd really questionable, Bills minus 5 against Jacksonville and minus 11.5 against the Patriots.    I expected the Bills to win both games, but it seemed like there were factors going into those games that shoudl have made the spreads lower.   Personally, I don't bet against the Bills.   And usually don't bet on the Bills , except for playoffs. And I do that hoping to spend the winnings on SB trip, not necessarily because it's a good bet.

 

 

Jaguars were an inconsistent team up to that point and we were just coming off of a thrashing of Miami by 28 points.  Patriots were +8.5 (not +11.5) and had lost three in a row being outscored 93-20.  We beat the Patriots the previous two seasons by double digits 4 of 5 times (darn wind game).  I thought both lines were appropriate.  We just screwed the pooch in both games.

[machine gun kelly]

14 hours ago, jletha said:

Its also only one game. They have looked downright bad many times this season, including one week prior. Much worse than Buffalo.

 

We will see Sunday.

No argument brother.  They have looked bad in the beginning of the year while Burrow had that calf injury and he couldn’t drive the ball.  This past Sunday after a bye was instrumental in him looking more healthy.

 

That was the 9ers in San Fran (actually Santa Clara).

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

No argument brother.  They have looked bad in the beginning of the year while Burrow had that calf injury and he couldn’t drive the ball.  This past Sunday after a bye was instrumental in him looking more healthy.

 

That was the 9ers in San Fran (actually Santa Clara).

 

When they run the ball well it all clicks for them.  Bottling up mixon and the run game is usually pretty key to putting them behind the sticks.  Burrow getting healthy adds the threat of a scramble that was missing to start the year on those 3rd and mediums.  He's still going to throw it underneath if its there - need to rally to the ball and tackle well.  

 

They also have been generating takeaways.  Need to win the turnover battle first - but this game will come down to 3rd downs and red zone too.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

17 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 The issue is, the offense has not looked great since the Miami game either.  Against Jags we put up 20, Giants we managed only 14 points, then put up just 25 on Pats and then 24 against the Bucs.  We have not broken 25 since Miami game and only done so in 3 of our 8 games this season.

 

 

 

I like it. We are way overdue for a 30+ point game. 

[BearNorth]

Can we make Jordan Phillips inactive for this game?  Can't take many more stupid penalties that keep drives alive.

[machine gun kelly]

19 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Can we make Jordan Phillips inactive for this game?  Can't take many more stupid penalties that keep drives alive.

No as we’re light in the middle.  I’m sure he’s been in the principal McD’s office talking about stopping the penalties

[newcam2012]

58 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

When they run the ball well it all clicks for them.  Bottling up mixon and the run game is usually pretty key to putting them behind the sticks.  Burrow getting healthy adds the threat of a scramble that was missing to start the year on those 3rd and mediums.  He's still going to throw it underneath if its there - need to rally to the ball and tackle well.  

 

They also have been generating takeaways.  Need to win the turnover battle first - but this game will come down to 3rd downs and red zone too.  

Curious to hear what defensive game plan the Bills defense comes up with to stop the Bengals. I would like to hear some thoughts because I'm having difficulty seeing it. 

 

Allen I see is the game(s) they played last year and it was a disaster. Now, the Bills go to their home with devastating injuries in that side of the ball. 

 

Dorsey better have a game plan for that Bengal defense. He better be able to make good in Gabe adjustments. Lou A will mix it up and try to confuse the Bills. He's going to use exotic blitzes and come after Allen. 

[jletha]

59 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

When they run the ball well it all clicks for them.  Bottling up mixon and the run game is usually pretty key to putting them behind the sticks.  Burrow getting healthy adds the threat of a scramble that was missing to start the year on those 3rd and mediums.  He's still going to throw it underneath if its there - need to rally to the ball and tackle well.  

 

They also have been generating takeaways.  Need to win the turnover battle first - but this game will come down to 3rd downs and red zone too.  

Im interested to see our dime package with Po as the box safety against Cincy. Seems like a good counter against their WRs. But as you say the key will be winning at the LOS. If we can do that consistently and force some longer 3rd downs I think we can get to them. Im also hopeful for a well-times blitx here and there that McD has shown thus far. The D was really rattled after the injuries but its inevitable that improve with more time to as a unit. They looked much better against TB than they did against NYG and NE, which were worse offenses. Cincy looked dominant last week but they have shown flashes of their "true form" a couple times this year only to then revert the next game.

 

I am really optimistic that the offense will continue to look good.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

Curious to hear what defensive game plan the Bills defense comes up with to stop the Bengals. I would like to hear some thoughts because I'm having difficulty seeing it. 

 

Allen I see is the game(s) they played last year and it was a disaster. Now, the Bills go to their home with devastating injuries in that side of the ball. 

 

Dorsey better have a game plan for that Bengal defense. He better be able to make good in Gabe adjustments. Lou A will mix it up and try to confuse the Bills. He's going to use exotic blitzes and come after Allen. 

 

My assumption is zone - try and show some blitz looks on 3rd downs.  

 

Thought allen had a nice game with the blitz playing more spread out as we did against TB.  Cincy has some beef up front that we've had trouble with in the past so getting the ball out quick and getting in rhythm will be key.  With knox out again i suspect we'll see more of the same spread looks.  Buffalo needs to figure out how to run the ball better in this one.  I expect we'll try to get more to the boundaries with cook and WR RPOs outside, as they're stout up the middle.  

[Big Turk]

Not more optimistic than Alex Smith:

 

 

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/former-nfl-qb-alex-smith-124538499.html

Edited October 31, 2023 by Big Turk