Bengals Early 1.5 Point Favourites — Vegas More Optimistic About the Bills Than Many?

[Doc Brown]

5 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

 

Vegas sharps are Vegas sharps because they see past things like momentum and which team won the matchup last year.

 No.  They usually use “momentum” or recency bias by the public to their advantage and bet the other side.  

3 hours ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

I have never bet on an NFL game but I think I have to for this one. My biggest fear is putting $500 down and then the Bills lose by 1

Mine is losing my whole family to some kind of terrible disaster.

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

17 minutes ago, Lionel Hutz said:

When was the last time the Bills were the betting underdogs?

 

Divisional game at Chiefs

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, 90sBills said:

I took the Bengals too. This line is undervalued. Just like Bengals +5 against SF that I took a few days ago. If I’m wrong then the Bills have won and it’s more enjoyable on this board. If I’m right then I’d be a few bucks happier and this board will be…highly entertaining. 

I took the Bengals at plus 5  and Denver plus 8. 

 

I got real lucky taking the Bucs and the 10 points vs the Bills in Thursday. 

 

This week I'm 3-0. So a great week for me. Kicking myself for not taking the Chargers. They blow it so much I just get timid. 

 

I took the Lions tonight in a bounce back game. I took it early and I'm giving away 8.5 points to the Raiders. The line went down to 7.5. 

 

Good luck everyone. 

5 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

hope you lose

 

That's fair. As a Bills fan I hope I lose too. As a better I hope I win. Worst case scenario is if the Bengals win by 1 or 2.

[GoBills808]

so many posts about correctly wagering on past results

 

so few tickets shown

 

[Drew21PA]

-3 on fan duel

[Scott7975]

9 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Well I'm a small better and never bet too much. It's all relative. I bet $300. That's a lot for me. 

 

Comparatively to your other bets that is a lot for you.  You seem pretty proud to say you "hammered" the bet though and honestly to me that's pretty gross being proud to bet against your team.

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Comparatively to your other bets that is a lot for you.  You seem pretty proud to say you "hammered" the bet though and honestly to me that's pretty gross being proud to bet against your team.

betting against your team isn't the gross part, it's being proud of getting the bengals at -2.5 when it might easily cross 3 in a couple hrs lol

[Process]

7 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Comparatively to your other bets that is a lot for you.  You seem pretty proud to say you "hammered" the bet though and honestly to me that's pretty gross being proud to bet against your team.

He doesn't bet on anything he's a troll. I offered him money last year just to post a picture of one of his bets against the Bills and he refused. Troll.

[jethro_tull]

I still cringe at each of their last two cincy games.  I saw a blowout in the making until the stoppage in play from Damar's horrific injury.  

The playoff loss only made it worse.  

They did seem return to form against the 49ers too which made me think about what they could do against our current shell shocked defense.  

The Bills offense will need to be sharp because it may need to be a no punt outing for them to win it.  

Cincys offense looks so friggin simple though, hoping that McD in control can do a better job at stopping them.  

[newcam2012]

4 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Comparatively to your other bets that is a lot for you.  You seem pretty proud to say you "hammered" the bet though and honestly to me that's pretty gross being proud to bet against your team.

You have to be able to separate the two. Often it's not easy to do. It really not a knock against how I am a Bills fan or a loyalty issue. It's more about analyzing the facts and trusting your process.

 

I see this bet as being a very good bet. I think there's only a small difficult path for the Bills to win or Bengals not to cover. Nothing is a sure thing.

[newcam2012]

2 minutes ago, Process said:

He doesn't bet on anything he's a troll. I offered him money last year just to post a picture of one of his bets against the Bills and he refused. Troll.

I usually bet $25 to $50 dollars. No big deal. I lose more than I win, sometimes I get lucky.  

 

There are some people out there and probably on this board that bet a lot bigger. Everyone's budget and tolerance level is different. 

 

The betting amount doesn't equate to being more knowledgeable or more successful. I do try to weigh in the sharp money. 

[Mikie2times]

11 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

You have to be able to separate the two. Often it's not easy to do. It really not a knock against how I am a Bills fan or a loyalty issue. It's more about analyzing the facts and trusting your process.

 

I see this bet as being a very good bet. I think there's only a small difficult path for the Bills to win or Bengals not to cover. Nothing is a sure thing.

The Divisional game last year, I risked too much on the Bengals Moneyline. I did not find it to be worth the money. It impacted my enjoyment of the game (which obviously sucked, but it just felt off). I saw the opening line this week and again, felt like it was easy money. But I decided against it. 

 

I understand what you're saying. At the same time nothing wrong with just putting the team you love off limits even if you think you can make some money. 

Edited October 30, 2023 by Mikie2times

[Scott7975]

10 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

You have to be able to separate the two. Often it's not easy to do. It really not a knock against how I am a Bills fan or a loyalty issue. It's more about analyzing the facts and trusting your process.

 

I see this bet as being a very good bet. I think there's only a small difficult path for the Bills to win or Bengals not to cover. Nothing is a sure thing.

 

I don't need to separate anything. I don't gamble.  I used to professionally play poker.  I got away from that a long time ago.  You still sound overly happy to bet against your team when you need to come here to declare you hammered a bet.

[Mango]

12 hours ago, HIT BY SPIKES said:

Given the typical 3 points the Home Team gets and the Bengals are on a 3 game winning streak — beat @Cardinals, Seahawks and @49’ers — and the Bills have stumbled to victories recently, it seems Vegas sees the Bills in a more positive light than many here.

 

I tend to be an optimistic Bills fan however I don’t have a good feeling about Sunday Night’s game in Cincinnati.

 

What do you think Vegas is seeing that perhaps we are overlooking?

 

As of about 2 weeks ago, road teams actually had a winning record vs home teams. Unsure of how much that has shifted. But some sportsbooks have claimed that they are only giving home teams about -1.5 these days. 

[Big Turk]

4 hours ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

I have never bet on an NFL game but I think I have to for this one. My biggest fear is putting $500 down and then the Bills lose by 1

 

You would win if the line is Bengals -1.5, Bills would have to lose by 2 to lose that bet.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Big Turk

[TheFunPolice]

Bengals are a tough matchup for us.

 

the NFL is all about how teams match up. That's why Team A can blow out Team B one week then Team B wins the next week and Team A scores 10 points. 

 

For whatever reason, the Bengals players and schemes are tough for us to deal with. We match up well with the Dolphins, but the Bengals stifle us and seem to move the ball at will. 

 

Same with the Chiefs and Bengals. 

 

YET the Browns basically always beat the Bengals, and usually it's not close. 

 

Hopefully this Sunday we find the answer. 

[90sBills]

52 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I took the Bengals at plus 5  and Denver plus 8. 

 

I got real lucky taking the Bucs and the 10 points vs the Bills in Thursday. 

 

This week I'm 3-0. So a great week for me. Kicking myself for not taking the Chargers. They blow it so much I just get timid. 

 

I took the Lions tonight in a bounce back game. I took it early and I'm giving away 8.5 points to the Raiders. The line went down to 7.5. 

 

We had a similar week. I started with the Bucs. Had Denver and Cincy. I did finished with the Chargers, luckily. But missed badly on Pitt and GB. Overall a great week though. 

50 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

so many posts about correctly wagering on past results

 

so few tickets shown

 

Yeah always a great idea to post personal items online. 

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

We had a similar week. I started with the Bucs. Had Denver and Cincy. I did finished with the Chargers, luckily. But missed badly on Pitt and GB. Overall a great week though. 

Yeah always a great idea to post personal items online. 

It's a receipt😂😂

[newcam2012]

21 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I don't need to separate anything. I don't gamble.  I used to professionally play poker.  I got away from that a long time ago.  You still sound overly happy to bet against your team when you need to come here to declare you hammered a bet.

The "you" in my statement wasn't directed specifically at you. It was more a universal statement. I should have clarified that. Sorry. 

 

I'm always eager to pull the trigger on what I see as advantageous bets. I feel like the Bills vs Bengals game is just that. Of course, I can be incorrect and it's solely my opinion. 

 

 

[90sBills]

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

It's a receipt😂😂

I hear ya. It’ll be tough but I’ll try to live with some anonymous people not believing without seeing receipts.