Bengals Early 1.5 Point Favourites — Vegas More Optimistic About the Bills Than Many?

[90sBills]

6 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

The line has already moved to -2.5. By kick off the line should be -3.5. 

 

I already hammered the Bengals at -2.5. 

I took the Bengals too. This line is undervalued. Just like Bengals +5 against SF that I took a few days ago. If I’m wrong then the Bills have won and it’s more enjoyable on this board. If I’m right then I’d be a few bucks happier and this board will be…highly entertaining. 

[dave mcbride]

31 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

The Bengals are having an interesting season. 

 

Offensively they've had 2 great, 1 mediocre, and 4 awful games. 

 

Defensively has been great the whole year outside of an inexplicable pounding in Tennessee. 

 

Obviously they are trending in a better direction than the Bills with those 2 great offensive games coming in the last 3 weeks. One of those was against the Cardinals (possibly the worst team in the league) and a suddenly reeling 49ers team. 

 

The Bills have avenged their last 2 playoff losses to KC with regular season wins at KC. I think we'll do the same to the Bengals this year with our offense finally hitting high gear again. 

I think the Bills might get curb-stomped. To beat the Bengals, you need strong DT play, particularly interior push. Otherwise, Burrow just picks teams apart. The Bills don't have a credible 1T now, and they'll be exploited again (just like in the playoff game last season). The Bills' offense will need to score over 30 points to have a chance, and I just don't see it. I mean, they could only put up 24 against TB and they looked good on offense on Thursday. In the previous three games, they didn't surpass 25. The Bengals' defense is better than all of those other teams, and they'll be playing at home.  

Edited October 30, 2023 by dave mcbride

[BuffaloRebound]

I’m loving the timing of this game.  Time to find out if we’re contenders or pretenders. 

[78thealltimegreat]

10 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I think the Bills might get curb-stomped. To beat the Bengals, you need strong DT play, particularly interior push. Otherwise, Burrow just picks teams apart. The Bills don't have a credible 1T now, and they'll be exploited again (just like in the playoff game last season). The Bills' offense will need to score over 30 points to have a chance, and I just don't see it. I mean, they could only put up 24 against TB and they looked good on offense on Thursday. In the previous three games, they didn't surpass 25. The Bengals' defense is better than all of those other teams, and they'll be playing at home.  

The question you have to ask yourself is are the Bills better than Seattle if the answer is yes they can win. If the answer is no turn of the tv by halftime 

[BuffaloBaumer]

I have never bet on an NFL game but I think I have to for this one. My biggest fear is putting $500 down and then the Bills lose by 1

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

18 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

I took the Bengals too. This line is undervalued. Just like Bengals +5 against SF that I took a few days ago. If I’m wrong then the Bills have won and it’s more enjoyable on this board. If I’m right then I’d be a few bucks happier and this board will be…highly entertaining. 

I’m not sure that it is undervalued going into the game but you may end up making your money anyway so who cares haha. I think the logic is the bengals have looked good one game against a team that has been in a free fall the last few weeks.  Everyone is getting hung up on it being the 49ers but the 49ers have been a mess for nearly a month now. 

 

we’re in here talking about the bengals physical defense but the bucs defense is better by every advanced metric and we moved the ball pretty well on them.  It’s gonna come down to who gets more red zone stops so I’ve got it as a 50/50 game at a neutral site/slight cincy favorite at home 

 

buffalo and cincy are both near tops in the league in preventing tds in the red zone and TB is number 1. Red zone offense we are second in the league in TD percentage with Miami at 1. 

[Drew21PA]

49 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I think the Bills might get curb-stomped. To beat the Bengals, you need strong DT play, particularly interior push. Otherwise, Burrow just picks teams apart. The Bills don't have a credible 1T now, and they'll be exploited again (just like in the playoff game last season). The Bills' offense will need to score over 30 points to have a chance, and I just don't see it. I mean, they could only put up 24 against TB and they looked good on offense on Thursday. In the previous three games, they didn't surpass 25. The Bengals' defense is better than all of those other teams, and they'll be playing at home.  

Yeah this is going to be brutal in my opinion I am not optimistic

 

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

47 minutes ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

I have never bet on an NFL game but I think I have to for this one. My biggest fear is putting $500 down and then the Bills lose by 1

I wouldn’t do it…that’s too much money for two of the most inconsistent good teams in the league playing against eachother 

If it were me I’d wait to let people overreacting to the niners game push the spread up and then take the bills with the points..  the most likely outcome I have is bills come up just short in a shootout if you’re gonna bet bengals I’d do it right now though lol

Edited October 30, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

43 minutes ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

I have never bet on an NFL game but I think I have to for this one. My biggest fear is putting $500 down and then the Bills lose by 1

Why not just bet the moneyline? It's not that big of a difference in the payout.

 

Spread betting is so dumb

[Process]

Insane movement on the line in 18 hours. Before the Bengals game Bills were -1.5 -122. Earlier this morning +1.5 +110. They are now +3 +142.

[The Wiz]

6 minutes ago, Process said:

Insane movement on the line in 18 hours. Before the Bengals game Bills were -1.5 -122. Earlier this morning +1.5 +110. They are now +3 +142.

Early money watched the bengals yesterday; doesn't surprise me with the movement.  They looked great against a top defense and Burrow was pretty much perfect.  

 

but yes, that is a very big move already.

Edited October 30, 2023 by The Wiz

[Cheektowaga Chad]

Not confident the bills can compete against the Bengals, expecting another blow out

[90sBills]

1 hour ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I’m not sure that it is undervalued going into the game but you may end up making your money anyway so who cares haha. I think the logic is the bengals have looked good one game against a team that has been in a free fall the last few weeks.  Everyone is getting hung up on it being the 49ers but the 49ers have been a mess for nearly a month now. 

 

we’re in here talking about the bengals physical defense but the bucs defense is better by every advanced metric and we moved the ball pretty well on them.  It’s gonna come down to who gets more red zone stops so I’ve got it as a 50/50 game at a neutral site/slight cincy favorite at home 

 

buffalo and cincy are both near tops in the league in preventing tds in the red zone and TB is number 1. Red zone offense we are second in the league in TD percentage with Miami at 1. 

I think it’s undervalued relative to Burrow’s health. They were sizable dogs to SF because of Burrow’s play prior to this past game. He was limited because of his injury. General betting fans forgot how good the Bengals are when he’s healthy. 
 

Bills can definitely win this game but if I’m a betting man (I am) I’d put my $ on the Bengals (I have lol). 

[90sBills]

2 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

The question you have to ask yourself is are the Bills better than Seattle if the answer is yes they can win. If the answer is no turn of the tv by halftime 

This really is the biggest mistake most NFL fans and bettors make when it comes to analyzing games.
 

A > B. B > C. Therefore A > C rarely works out. Each game is independent of another during the regular season. Different matchups. Different motivations. The fact that Bills might be better than Seattle has little impact on how they will do against the Bengals. Just imo. 

[JROC INTEL]

2 hours ago, WotAGuy said:

Bengals are just a difficult matchup for the Bills. Just like Jacksonville and the Jets. Not sure why, maybe it’s mojo or just certain individual matchups are bad, but it’s the NFL ‘Nother Flucking Loss - which also describes my betting record this year. 
 

 

These teams you mentioned are physical teams, including the Bengals. This is why the Bills don’t match up well to these teams imo. 

[colin]

seeing cinci and kc yesterday, the biggest thing i notice is that cinci has an o designed to beat the cover 2/deep shell, disguise coverage stuff.

 

they do it with really fast accurate timing passes, that ball is out of there so fast, but not necessarily to dump offs.  they also run power at pass rushers.

 

to beat them, aside from allen and the o having a night, our D (corch claps really) needs to win the game of rock paper scissors pre and post snap.

[BillsShredder83]

7 hours ago, harryS said:

 

You got a bad line as the spread is 2 or 1.5 across the board right now (mostly 2s).  2 isn't really that key a number so hopefully no big deal; hopefully the game doesn't end on a failed 2-pt conversion by the Bills or something like that.

 

As for your prediction of the line moving to 3.5, I doubt it.  I have already bet the Bengals so like you I think 1.5/2 is too short of a line.  However, keep in mind that on Jan 2 of this year (Game 17 of last season), the Bills were also at Cincy (the canceled game) and the Bills were 2.5-pt favorites in that game.  In other words, there's already been a pretty decent adjustment in the spread to reflect the results since then (including Cincy's domination of Buffalo in the playoffs).

 

The most I could see this getting to is -3 even money (so heavily juiced on the +3 side).  To go through the 3 to 3.5 is a stretch barring significant new injury news.  Truth be told, even getting to 3 even is perhaps a stretch.  

 

 

 

 

this dude isnt even a bills fan. hope he loses that 300 and it hurts the pockets

[Lionel Hutz]

When was the last time the Bills were the betting underdogs?

[2003Contenders]

This one is a hard one for me to pick. Yes, the Bills and Bengals matched up twice last season. However, there is little to take away from either game.

 

In the Week 17 match-up last season, the game was cancelled in the 1st quarter after Hamlin's horrific injury. Up until that point neither defense seemed capable of stopping the opposing offense. Might that have resulted in a shootout over the course of a full game? Or, would one side or the other have adjusted?

 

In the playoffs, that is one of those games that I think from an evaluation point you simply burn the film. The Bills were clearly gassed heading into that game -- and many of the players afterwards admitted as much. Last season was a grind given all the drama on so many fronts, and it just felt like everything came crashing down that weekend. Yes, the Bengals clearly dominated that game, but they also had all of the energy.

 

I guess what I am saying is that it is hard to predict what will happen based on those two games from last year. It is true that our defense seemed incapable of stopping their offense in either game -- but the sample size is small and perhaps a bit deceiving. Also, the defensive game plan -- allowing 10-yard cushions against their receivers with Burrow getting rid of the ball quickly was a recipe for disaster. Of course, with Frazier gone now perhaps McD will be more aggressive. Hopefully he does not employ last year's game plan!

 

 

[VW82]

Bengals remain a big time match up problem for us. Until/if we can get a one tech to fill in for Daquan, big teams like the Bengals are going to control the LOS and keep Josh off the field. 
 

We also still have to play the Chiefs, Eagles, and Cowboys. Beane needs to act quickly or this season could be down the tubes real quick.