Bengals Early 1.5 Point Favourites — Vegas More Optimistic About the Bills Than Many?

[HIT BY SPIKES]

Given the typical 3 points the Home Team gets and the Bengals are on a 3 game winning streak — beat @Cardinals, Seahawks and @49’ers — and the Bills have stumbled to victories recently, it seems Vegas sees the Bills in a more positive light than many here.

 

I tend to be an optimistic Bills fan however I don’t have a good feeling about Sunday Night’s game in Cincinnati.

 

What do you think Vegas is seeing that perhaps we are overlooking?

[chongli]

The Bengals are -13 in point differential whereas the Bills are +86. The Bengals are 0-3 vs. AFC teams. That's all I have at this late hour.

[HIT BY SPIKES]

4 minutes ago, chongli said:

The Bengals are -13 in point differential whereas the Bills are +86. The Bengals are 0-3 vs. AFC teams. That's all I have at this late hour.

That makes sense.

 

The Bengals had a very rough start to the season where those factors you listed happened.

 

Vegas isn’t putting a lot of emphasis on momentum.

 

That the Bengals clearly have and the Bills do not.

[Doc Brown]

Advanced line was a pickem before the 49ers game so I'm not surprised it moved a couple of points.  Home team gets 1.5 to 2 points so Vegas sees us as even I guess.  Not sure they factored in the incoming Levi Wallace trade.

[newcam2012]

The line has already moved to -2.5. By kick off the line should be -3.5. 

 

I already hammered the Bengals at -2.5. 

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

The line has already moved to -2.5. By kick off the line should be -3.5. 

 

I already hammered the Bengals at -2.5. 

What does hammered mean, 50 bucks?

 

When I see someone say “hammered” I expect they bet the house. 

[newcam2012]

3 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

What does hammered mean, 50 bucks?

 

When I see someone say “hammered” I expect they bet the house. 

Well I'm a small better and never bet too much. It's all relative. I bet $300. That's a lot for me. 

[machine gun kelly]

Home advantage line for years has been 1.5 so Vegas is basically saying it’s an even game.  I watched the Bengals game yesterday and they look more complete than us right now.  That doesn’t mean the Bills can’t come out like they played in the Dolphins game.  This will be our toughest test.

[Xwnyer]

2 hours ago, HIT BY SPIKES said:

Given the typical 3 points the Home Team gets and the Bengals are on a 3 game winning streak — beat @Cardinals, Seahawks and @49’ers — and the Bills have stumbled to victories recently, it seems Vegas sees the Bills in a more positive light than many here.

 

I tend to be an optimistic Bills fan however I don’t have a good feeling about Sunday Night’s game in Cincinnati.

 

What do you think Vegas is seeing that perhaps we are overlooking?

After watching how they dismantled San Fran defense yesterday and the pressure they got on QB could be an ugly game for the Bills. Bengals 48 Bills 17

[Since1981]

bengals have momentum, bills don’t. Bengals have proven capable of beating bills. Feels like cats should be favorited by more betting-wise. 

[HIT BY SPIKES]

25 minutes ago, Since1981 said:

bengals have momentum, bills don’t. Bengals have proven capable of beating bills. Feels like cats should be favorited by more betting-wise. 

 

That is what I was thinking as well.

[PBF81]

All that "Vegas" is, is the trending opinion.  Until the heavy money gets lopsided anyway.  

 

 

[Shortchaz]

Bengals are a bad matchup for the bills. the bills will need their A game on both sides of the ball and hopefully cincy is off for some reason. 

[C.Biscuit97]

I believe Vegas has adjusted the 3 points at home to like 1.5 for most teams (believe the Bills and Chiefs get 3 still because we have legit home field advantage).

 

I mean it should be a really close line. But as others have said, the bengals will get bet heavy and the line will be higher before game time. 

[Captain_Quint]

I think the line continues to move to the Bengals and we see our first big loss. Not saying we get blown out, but it seems the two teams are moving in opposite directions right now (similar to when we met last year). 

 

Maybe the 10 days off gave the Bills a little extra, but to me this is one of those games coming up. 

[harryS]

2 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

The line has already moved to -2.5. By kick off the line should be -3.5. 

 

I already hammered the Bengals at -2.5. 

 

You got a bad line as the spread is 2 or 1.5 across the board right now (mostly 2s).  2 isn't really that key a number so hopefully no big deal; hopefully the game doesn't end on a failed 2-pt conversion by the Bills or something like that.

 

As for your prediction of the line moving to 3.5, I doubt it.  I have already bet the Bengals so like you I think 1.5/2 is too short of a line.  However, keep in mind that on Jan 2 of this year (Game 17 of last season), the Bills were also at Cincy (the canceled game) and the Bills were 2.5-pt favorites in that game.  In other words, there's already been a pretty decent adjustment in the spread to reflect the results since then (including Cincy's domination of Buffalo in the playoffs).

 

The most I could see this getting to is -3 even money (so heavily juiced on the +3 side).  To go through the 3 to 3.5 is a stretch barring significant new injury news.  Truth be told, even getting to 3 even is perhaps a stretch.  

 

 

 

 

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, harryS said:

 

You got a bad line as the spread is 2 or 1.5 across the board right now (mostly 2s).  2 isn't really that key a number so hopefully no big deal; hopefully the game doesn't end on a failed 2-pt conversion by the Bills or something like that.

 

As for your prediction of the line moving to 3.5, I doubt it.  I have already bet the Bengals so like you I think 1.5/2 is too short of a line.  However, keep in mind that on Jan 2 of this year (Game 17 of last season), the Bills were also at Cincy (the canceled game) and the Bills were 2.5-pt favorites in that game.  In other words, there's already been a pretty decent adjustment in the spread to reflect the results since then (including Cincy's domination of Buffalo in the playoffs).

 

The most I could see this getting to is -3 even money (so heavily juiced on the +3 side).  To go through the 3 to 3.5 is a stretch barring significant new injury news.  Truth be told, even getting to 3 even is perhaps a stretch.  

 

 

 

 

I think the line will move to plus 3 for Buffalo. I think sharp money will be all over the Bengals at home. I'd be surprised if the hook goes to Buffalo for plus 3.5. 

 

The public just saw the Bengals beat a very good niner team on the road. The way they won was impressive. Meanwhile, the struggling Bills hung on for dear life to beat a Baker Mayfield led team in their home building. 

 

I don't find the references of last year being pertinent now. The Bills were the super bowl favorites and the darlings on many in the NFL. They were often over bet and the betting lines were often slightly inaccurate. This year isn't the case especially with the injuries. 

Edited October 30, 2023 by newcam2012

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

2 hours ago, Since1981 said:

bengals have momentum, bills don’t. Bengals have proven capable of beating bills. Feels like cats should be favorited by more betting-wise. 

 

Vegas sharps are Vegas sharps because they see past things like momentum and which team won the matchup last year.

[Dan Darragh]

4 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Not sure they factored in the incoming Levi Wallace trade.

Or Devon Levi.

 

Another CB/Goalie connection for the Bills and Sabres?

[newcam2012]

22 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

 

Vegas sharps are Vegas sharps because they see past things like momentum and which team won the matchup last year.

Vegas sharps are Vegas sharps because they recognize the significance of good play and momentum. They can analyse matchups and see who has the better advantages. 

 

There I fixed it for you. 

21 minutes ago, Dan Darragh said:

Or Devon Levi.

 

Another CB/Goalie connection for the Bills and Sabres?

Or the addition of Josh Norman

 A great leader with something in the tank. He looks to be a special teams star too.

 

Allen they need now is to get Beasley and Brown back on the roster!