Week 9 thread - We’re on to Cincinnati

[mannc]

3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Statistically it is backed up because teams will on average score an extra point when they defer kicks to the 2nd half and also have a 12% chance of stealing a possession.

 

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/opening-kickoff-receive-or-defer/

Yeah, that's the Sharp article I referred to.  It's well-written but it's hard to tell how big the data sample is or whether it's still valid four years later.  And I'm not sure what "stealing a possession" means.  How does having the ball at the end of the half and then receiving the second half kickoff equal "stealing a possession"?  It doesn't make any sense.  

[Big Turk]

Just now, mannc said:

Yeah, that's the Sharp article I referred to.  It's well-written but it's hard to tell how big the data sample is or whether it's still valid four years later.  And I'm not sure what "stealing a possession" means.  How does having the ball at the end of the half and then receiving the second half kickoff equal "stealing a possession"?  It doesn't make any sense.  

 

McVay explains pretty much exactly what I said:

 

 

https://heavy.com/sports/los-angeles-rams/sean-mcvay-coin-toss/

 

I would suspect the gap would be greater if anything.

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

That’s simply not true

 

Yeah it is.

[mannc]

9 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

McVay explains pretty much exactly what I said:

 

 

https://heavy.com/sports/los-angeles-rams/sean-mcvay-coin-toss/

 

I would suspect the gap would be greater if anything.

Yeah, McVay feels so strongly about it that he lets the players decide what to do😃

 

And his explanation about "stealing a possession" makes no sense.  Again, how is that "stealing a possession"?  Can you explain it?  You always want to have the last possession of the second half, regardless whether you're receiving the second half kickoff.  The more I hear people trying to explain why deferring is better, the less convinced I am that it's so.  

 

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

I aint telling ya to be quiet.  Just saying... you are giving them no chance.  I aint gonna lie.  I'm not all that optimistic about this game either.  Mostly because of the D injuries but also because I dunno what offense shows up.  Has nothing to do with last year though.  Last year was last year.  What I do know is if this O turns it on, they can beat anyone.  I also know our D is going to make at least some stops.  Hopefully they make enough of them.

 

Honestly, I come to this thread to see practice week news and things about THIS WEEK, but it devolves into every other oh woe is me the Bills suck threads and I just get tired of reading it. I'm in this thread for news, not Dr. Phil.

The defence needs to make way more stops and not allow long drives and big third down conversions.  Don't need turnovers if they just flip the field once in a while.

 

The offence conversely needs to be aggressive and Allen ready to run.

 

I however don't come here for practice new updates or fake trades or the Bills 4th round pick in 2024.  I come to see what others are talking about the Bills.

Edited November 2, 2023 by Billsfan1972

[Scott7975]

33 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

The defence needs to make way more stops and not allow long drives and big third down conversions.  Don't need turnovers if they just flip the field once in a while.

 

The offence conversely needs to be aggressive and Allen ready to run.

 

I however don't come here for practice new updates or fake trades or the Bills 4th round pick in 2024.  I come to see what others are talking about the Bills.

 

I was talking about this thread specifically.  There are plenty of threads otherwise to talk about the Bills past games and performance.

 

The rest I agree with but those things are all said in the 200 other threads that you can have an oh woe is me attitude in.  I'd prefer if I can look in this thread and see talks about this specific week, news about this specific week as this thread is "Week 9 we are on to Cincinnati."  It isn't "oh woe is me we lost to the Pats."

[Einstein's Dog]

53 minutes ago, mannc said:

I don't actually know how often teams defer vs. taking the ball to start the game, but it doesn't matter.  NFL coaches are mostly followers who often do things a certain way for no very good reason.  As far as I can tell, this preference to defer is all based on a 2019 article by Warren Sharp, in which he concluded--based on games played from 2016-2019--that there was a very slight advantage to be gained by deferring.  That advantage is so minor that it can easily be offset by things like weather or the quality of a team's offense or defense.  I've never seen Sharp's research updated so it wouldn't be surprising if an analysis of more recent NFL games came to a different conclusion.  One thing that's clear is that there is no evidence to support gaining a clear advantage by deferring.            

But you said earlier "a lot of teams don't do it".  Now when shown statistics to the contrary we get the "it doesn't matter".

 

Secondly, after being shown a study concluded there was an advantage you say "One thing that's clear is that there is no evidence to support...."  Huh?  You may not like the study or its conclusions but there is some evidence.

 

To me, this pre-criticism comes across as planting reasons to dislike or blame McDermott.  The overwhelming majority of coaches would defer.  But you have McDermott set up with statements like "Show some f**cking balls and confidence" and "that's the only way we are going to beat them"

[Billsfan1972]

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I was talking about this thread specifically.  There are plenty of threads otherwise to talk about the Bills past games and performance.

 

The rest I agree with but those things are all said in the 200 other threads that you can have an oh woe is me attitude in.  I'd prefer if I can look in this thread and see talks about this specific week, news about this specific week as this thread is "Week 9 we are on to Cincinnati."  It isn't "oh woe is me we lost to the Pats."

Replying then to the thread......

 

Don't get lost, get acclimated to the time difference and get some payback for last January.😜

[Scott7975]

45 minutes ago, mannc said:

Yeah, McVay feels so strongly about it that he lets the players decide what to do😃

 

And his explanation about "stealing a possession" makes no sense.  Again, how is that "stealing a possession"?  Can you explain it?  You always want to have the last possession of the second half, regardless whether you're receiving the second half kickoff.  The more I hear people trying to explain why deferring is better, the less convinced I am that it's so.  

 

 

Because the timing of the clock, you are more likely to get the last drive of the first half if you start on defense. You can use the clock, score, and finish the half or leave little time for the other team to do anything in the final seconds of the half.  Then you get the ball again in the second half.  Its getting two possessions in a row which is the only possible way of doing so other than maybe the other team fumbling a kickoff.

 

How do you not see that the potential to put up 14 points without the other team touching the ball is a big advantage?

Edited November 2, 2023 by Scott7975

[Billsfan1972]

2 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

But you said earlier "a lot of teams don't do it".  Now when shown statistics to the contrary we get the "it doesn't matter".

 

Secondly, after being shown a study concluded there was an advantage you say "One thing that's clear is that there is no evidence to support...."  Huh?  You may not like the study or its conclusions but there is some evidence.

 

To me, this pre-criticism comes across as planting reasons to dislike or blame McDermott.  The overwhelming majority of coaches would defer.  But you have McDermott set up with statements like "Show some f**cking balls and confidence" and "that's the only way we are going to beat them"

Yep it will be on McD.  When they win big, he certainly gets a lot of credit from what I see here.

[mannc]

13 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

But you said earlier "a lot of teams don't do it".  Now when shown statistics to the contrary we get the "it doesn't matter".

 

Secondly, after being shown a study concluded there was an advantage you say "One thing that's clear is that there is no evidence to support...."  Huh?  You may not like the study or its conclusions but there is some evidence.

 

To me, this pre-criticism comes across as planting reasons to dislike or blame McDermott.  The overwhelming majority of coaches would defer.  But you have McDermott set up with statements like "Show some f**cking balls and confidence" and "that's the only way we are going to beat them"

Have you seen statistics on how often teams defer?  I've seen the number 85%, but I don't know how accurate it is.  But again, it doesn't matter.  I'm trying to debate the practice on its merits, not how popular it is with NFL coaches.  McVay admitted in the article posted by BigTurk that he lets the players decide.  And it's totally fair to question a "study" from four years ago that provides very little information about sample size.       

[mannc]

15 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Because the timing of the clock, you are more likely to get the last drive of the first half if you start on defense. You can use the clock, score, and finish the half or leave little time for the other team to do anything in the final seconds of the half.  Then you get the ball again in the second half.  Its getting two possessions in a row which is the only possible way of doing so other than maybe the other team fumbling a kickoff.

 

How do you not see that the potential to put up 14 points without the other team touching the ball is a big advantage?

The bolded is something I've never heard before...I'm not sure why that would be true, but OK.

 

I can see why it's nice to have two possessions in a row, but according to the Sharp study, you're likely to have the same number of drives during a game, regardless whether you receive the opening kickoff or not.   And again, I don't understand why your end of half strategy would change based on whether you are receiving the second half kickoff; either way, on your last drive of the half, you're going to try to score as many points as you can, while at the same time trying to leave your opponent as little time as possible to score.   

 

Sorry for belaboring the point, but I find this to be a very interesting topic. I still maintain that the data supporting deferring is weak at best and that coaches are exhibiting a herd mentality when it comes to deferring.  

[julian]

I just read an article on PFT quoting Tyler Boyd saying some of the Bills players used the snow as the reason they lost in the divisional round game last year.

 

 I hadn’t read or heard that, did anyone else remember seeing these statements after the loss ?

[NewEra]

36 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Because the timing of the clock, you are more likely to get the last drive of the first half if you start on defense. You can use the clock, score, and finish the half or leave little time for the other team to do anything in the final seconds of the half.  Then you get the ball again in the second half.  Its getting two possessions in a row which is the only possible way of doing so other than maybe the other team fumbling a kickoff.

 

How do you not see that the potential to put up 14 points without the other team touching the ball is a big advantage?

Is this true?  Stats to prove it?  I’ve only skimmed the thread, apologies if already posted.  I’ve always wondered which team had a better chance of having the ball last

4 minutes ago, julian said:

I just read an article on PFT quoting Tyler Boyd saying some of the Bills players used the snow as the reason they lost in the divisional round game last year.

 

 I hadn’t read or heard that, did anyone else remember seeing these statements after the loss ?

I heard lil dirty say it. He’s the only one that I saw.

 

iirc correctly he used the word “weather”, not “snow”, but I could be wrong 

Edited November 2, 2023 by NewEra

[julian]

10 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Is this true?  Stats to prove it?  I’ve only skimmed the thread, apologies if already posted.  I’ve always wondered which team had a better chance of having the ball last

I heard lil dirty say it. He’s the only one that I saw.

 

iirc correctly he used the word “weather”, not “snow”, but I could be wrong 

Ahh ok thanks, I must have missed that. I can’t stand that team and it’s arrogant players who act like they’re a dynasty and haven’t won jack sh*t.

 

 Oh well… Bills 31 Bengals 28

[Cheektowaga Chad]

12 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Is this true?  Stats to prove it?  I’ve only skimmed the thread, apologies if already posted.  I’ve always wondered which team had a better chance of having the ball last

I heard lil dirty say it. He’s the only one that I saw.

 

iirc correctly he used the word “weather”, not “snow”, but I could be wrong 

To add to what McKenzie said, he mentioned the game plan for the weather and how Cincy ran simple basic routes that work better in tough weather 

 

Basically McKenzie said if the bills game planned better they would have had a better chance to win

 

Cincy players are just there own breed, strange cats 

[Beck Water]

32 minutes ago, julian said:

I just read an article on PFT quoting Tyler Boyd saying some of the Bills players used the snow as the reason they lost in the divisional round game last year.

 

 I hadn’t read or heard that, did anyone else remember seeing these statements after the loss ?

 

McKenzie said some stuff about that

 

One reason the Bills decided to move on from him IMHO

 

One dude who got cut not too long thereafter is not "some of the players".

Edited November 2, 2023 by Beck Water

[Low Positive]

33 minutes ago, julian said:

I just read an article on PFT quoting Tyler Boyd saying some of the Bills players used the snow as the reason they lost in the divisional round game last year.

 

 I hadn’t read or heard that, did anyone else remember seeing these statements after the loss ?

The Bengals make stuff up to create a "nobody respects us/us against the world" attitude every week. They've been doing that since 2021.

[GoBills808]

31 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Is this true?  Stats to prove it?  I’ve only skimmed the thread, apologies if already posted.  I’ve always wondered which team had a better chance of having the ball last

I don't know tbh but an NFL team averages 11.998 or almost exactly 12 drives/game so if you can assume an equal distribution of drives between first half and second half (dubious proposition imo) deferring would tend to leave you with the ball on offense at the end of the first half and the other team having the ball on offense at the end of the second half

[K-9]

2 hours ago, mannc said:

Yeah, that's the Sharp article I referred to.  It's well-written but it's hard to tell how big the data sample is or whether it's still valid four years later.  And I'm not sure what "stealing a possession" means.  How does having the ball at the end of the half and then receiving the second half kickoff equal "stealing a possession"?  It doesn't make any sense.  

Stealing a possession only applies if you stop them on their initial possession. Turnovers also steal possessions from the opponent. But on average, teams are gonna get a dozen possessions in a game so I don’t put much stock in the idea of deferring to steal a possession. 

 

But in deferring, if you can score at the end of the first half and on the initial drive in the second half, it can be a huge factor in swinging the game. The “double dip” is a real advantage when it works out that way.