Week 9 thread - We’re on to Cincinnati

[Scott7975]

4 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I agree but this team can lose to anyone too. Look at who we lost to. Frankly, who have the Bills beat besides their division rival Dolphins? 

 

Wins:

1 Raiders (stink)

2 Wash (stink)

3 Miami (quality win)

4 Giants (stink)

5 Tampa (stink) 

 

Not exactly world beaters 

 

Losses:

1 Jets (no Rodgers/ Hall no healthy)

2 Jags (quality team)

3 NE (stink) 

 

Not impressive to date. 

 

Fans want to talk about who the Dolphins have played and beat. When you take a deep dive at the Bills record it's anything but encouraging. 

 

Sunday night we will should get a pretty firm idea of the direction of the team. How good and or bad they are. 

 

Are the Bills really the better team? I don't think that's a given. 

 

The funny thing is all 5 of those teams you listed as "stink" team wins there were people here before the games with the "OMG how are we going to stop their pass rush.  Josh is going to get killed" or "Tampa is better than the Pats we are going to lose."  There were people propping up Howell. People were finding losses for all those games too.  Then they suddenly sucked after we won, and in some cases not just won but blew them out. 

 

Pretty sure most teams in the league have losses against crap teams.  Who cares.  A wins a win and a loss is a loss.  Just watch the game.

[Big Turk]

LMAO! If he thinks this is bad just wait...

 

 

[newcam2012]

5 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

The funny thing is all 5 of those teams you listed as "stink" team wins there were people here before the games with the "OMG how are we going to stop their pass rush.  Josh is going to get killed" or "Tampa is better than the Pats we are going to lose."  There were people propping up Howell. People were finding losses for all those games too.  Then they suddenly sucked after we won, and in some cases not just won but blew them out. 

 

Pretty sure most teams in the league have losses against crap teams.  Who cares.  A wins a win and a loss is a loss.  Just watch the game.

Oh I see how it goes. You can analyze teams the Bills have played and the Bills opponents and competition. 

 

Yet, I should basically be quiet and watch the game. Got it! 

8 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

The funny thing is all 5 of those teams you listed as "stink" team wins there were people here before the games with the "OMG how are we going to stop their pass rush.  Josh is going to get killed" or "Tampa is better than the Pats we are going to lose."  There were people propping up Howell. People were finding losses for all those games too.  Then they suddenly sucked after we won, and in some cases not just won but blew them out. 

 

Pretty sure most teams in the league have losses against crap teams.  Who cares.  A wins a win and a loss is a loss.  Just watch the game.

It cuts both ways Scott. More often than not people here consistently tell others how the Bills will win and win big. Let's get real. I don't hear you telling them "just watch the game."

 

 

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Oh I see how it goes. You can analyze teams the Bills have played and the Bills opponents and competition. 

 

Yet, I should basically be quiet and watch the game. Got it! 

It cuts both ways Scott. More often than not people here consistently tell others how the Bills will win and win big. Let's get real. I don't hear you telling them "just watch the game."

 

 

 

Probably because over the last 3+ years they HAVE consistently far more than they haven't?  Like most in the NFL during that time by a wide margin?  Statistically they would have a pretty high chance of being right.

[Maine-iac]

13 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I agree the D has hurt them since the injuries...it seems like McD figured something out with using Poyer in a dime LB role with Rapp taking his spot at safety...they looked a lot better on D and Poyer had a few INTs he dropped, including a housecall.

 

With Joseph and Douglas shoring up their biggest opportunities I think they have the ability to get back to being closer to the beginning of the year...likely not top 3, but certainly can be top 10.

This .................... if we had just picked up a few of these guys a couple weeks earlier.

[Scott7975]

9 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Oh I see how it goes. You can analyze teams the Bills have played and the Bills opponents and competition. 

 

Yet, I should basically be quiet and watch the game. Got it! 

It cuts both ways Scott. More often than not people here consistently tell others how the Bills will win and win big. Let's get real. I don't hear you telling them "just watch the game."

 

 

I aint telling ya to be quiet.  Just saying... you are giving them no chance.  I aint gonna lie.  I'm not all that optimistic about this game either.  Mostly because of the D injuries but also because I dunno what offense shows up.  Has nothing to do with last year though.  Last year was last year.  What I do know is if this O turns it on, they can beat anyone.  I also know our D is going to make at least some stops.  Hopefully they make enough of them.

 

Honestly, I come to this thread to see practice week news and things about THIS WEEK, but it devolves into every other oh woe is me the Bills suck threads and I just get tired of reading it. I'm in this thread for news, not Dr. Phil.

Edited November 2, 2023 by Scott7975

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

I aint telling ya to be quiet.  Just saying... you are giving them no chance.  I aint gonna lie.  I'm not all that optimistic about this game either.  Mostly because of the D injuries but also because I dunno what offense shows up.  Has nothing to do with last year though.  Last year was last year.  What I do know is if this O turns it on, they can beat anyone.  I also know our D is going to make at least some stops.  Hopefully they make enough of them.

 

Honestly, I come to this thread to see practice week news and things about THIS WEEK, but it devolves into every other oh woe is me the Bills suck threads and I just get tired of reading it. I'm in this thread for news, not Dr. Phil.

 

If the Bills play their best, no team in the NFL, Bengals included can beat them.

[The Wiz]

Much better injury report today.

 

 

[Scott7975]

 

[newcam2012]

15 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

I aint telling ya to be quiet.  Just saying... you are giving them no chance.  I aint gonna lie.  I'm not all that optimistic about this game either.  Mostly because of the D injuries but also because I dunno what offense shows up.  Has nothing to do with last year though.  Last year was last year.  What I do know is if this O turns it on, they can beat anyone.  I also know our D is going to make at least some stops.  Hopefully they make enough of them.

 

Honestly, I come to this thread to see practice week news and things about THIS WEEK, but it devolves into every other oh woe is me the Bills suck threads and I just get tired of reading it. I'm in this thread for news, not Dr. Phil.

Scott you are incorrect in saying I give the Bills no chance of winning. 

 

In numerous post I've said the Bills can win. More specifically,  I gave the Bills about a 35% chance of winning. 

 

I also think past results do play a role in sports. How much is debatable. I don't think it's totally accurate to say last year is last year. The Bengals already have a winning formula vs the Bills. They know they can beat the Bills. I'm sure they are ultra confident going into this game. That doesn't equate to a win but it likely gives them a psychology advantage; perhaps subconsciously. 

 

The Bills on the other hand have to prove they are a better team. Perhaps that gives them extra motivation? Perhaps it creates more doubt? 

 

Hard to know the effects of previous games. But to dismiss them seems inaccurate. I'm pretty sure each coaching staff has analyzed the heck out of last year's game. Trying to learn from it, get an edge from it, etc ...

[BillsFan130]

24 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

If the Bills play their best, no team in the NFL, Bengals included can beat them.

A healthy bills team, I would agree as we saw that first hand against Miami.

 

We will see with the injuries/new players added to the team 

 

 

[mannc]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

If they get a two td lead at the beginning of the game then they are going to get that same two td lead whether you defer or not.  Deferring is not a small advantage. It almost always gives you a chance to score twice in a row.  

That’s simply not true

[NewEra]

I’ll just leave this here.

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

31 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Scott you are incorrect in saying I give the Bills no chance of winning. 

 

In numerous post I've said the Bills can win. More specifically,  I gave the Bills about a 35% chance of winning. 

 

I also think past results do play a role in sports. How much is debatable. I don't think it's totally accurate to say last year is last year. The Bengals already have a winning formula vs the Bills. They know they can beat the Bills. I'm sure they are ultra confident going into this game. That doesn't equate to a win but it likely gives them a psychology advantage; perhaps subconsciously. 

 

The Bills on the other hand have to prove they are a better team. Perhaps that gives them extra motivation? Perhaps it creates more doubt? 

 

Hard to know the effects of previous games. But to dismiss them seems inaccurate. I'm pretty sure each coaching staff has analyzed the heck out of last year's game. Trying to learn from it, get an edge from it, etc ...

 

The Bills beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead in 2021 and 2022 after losing to them in the playoffs.  I don't think the Bengals beating us last year is still on their minds, it wasn't against KC.

[Success]

5 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’ll just leave this here.

 

 

 

He gives this team such an attitude & edge.  We fortunately have a few "culture changers" on the team, but he's at the top of the list. 

 

It's very important to me that we not just win a SB - but win one while he is still playing here.  One of my favorite Bills of all time.

 

[mannc]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Really?  If by "a lot" you mean maybe 2% of the time or less, then sure...pretty much every game I watch(and I watch a lot of them), the team that wins the coin toss defers(except in OT of course).  It gives you a known quantity you can use to your advantage(ie, getting the ball out of the half, taking more time to run clock so you have 2 possessions in a row) versus an unknown quantity(not knowing when you'll get the ball in the second half).

 

Control of the ball ALWAYS beats chasing the ball, 100% of the time.

Why isn't control of the ball at the start of the game as valuable as control of the ball at the start of the second half?

 

Why is not knowing when you'll get the ball in the second half worse than not knowing when you'll get the ball in the first half?  Isn't knowing you'll get the ball to start the game a "known quantity" too? 

 

Why would it matter to your end of half strategy whether you were getting the ball to start the second half?  Aren't you always going to try to score with as little time left on the clock as possible to prevent the other team from having a chance to score before halftime?   

 

I don't actually know how often teams defer vs. taking the ball to start the game, but it doesn't matter.  NFL coaches are mostly followers who often do things a certain way for no very good reason.  As far as I can tell, this preference to defer is all based on a 2019 article by Warren Sharp, in which he concluded--based on games played from 2016-2019--that there was a very slight advantage to be gained by deferring.  That advantage is so minor that it can easily be offset by things like weather or the quality of a team's offense or defense.  I've never seen Sharp's research updated so it wouldn't be surprising if an analysis of more recent NFL games came to a different conclusion.  One thing that's clear is that there is no evidence to support gaining a clear advantage by deferring.            

Edited November 2, 2023 by mannc

[NewEra]

10 minutes ago, Success said:

 

He gives this team such an attitude & edge.  We fortunately have a few "culture changers" on the team, but he's at the top of the list. 

 

It's very important to me that we not just win a SB - but win one while he is still playing here.  One of my favorite Bills of all time.

 

💯 

 

Stefon Diggs really is HIM.

 

I believe that 

[Big Turk]

12 minutes ago, mannc said:

Why isn't control of the ball at the start of the game as valuable as control of the ball at the start of the second half?

 

Why is not knowing when you'll get the ball in the second half worse than not knowing when you'll get the ball in the first half?  Isn't knowing you'll get the ball to start the game a "known quantity" too? 

 

Why would it matter to your end of half strategy whether you were getting the ball to start the second half?  Aren't you always going to try to score with as little time left on the clock as possible to prevent the other team from having a chance to score before halftime?   

 

I don't actually know how often teams defer vs. taking the ball to start the game, but it doesn't matter.  NFL coaches are mostly followers who often do things a certain way for no very good reason.  As far as I can tell, this preference to defer is all based on a 2019 article by Warren Sharp, in which he concluded--based on games played from 2016-2019--that there was a very slight advantage to be gained by deferring.  That advantage is so minor that it can easily be offset by things like weather or the quality of a team's offense or defense.  I've never seen Sharp's research updated so it wouldn't be surprising if an analysis of more recent NFL games came to a different conclusion.  One thing that's clear is that there is no evidence to support gaining a clear advantage by deferring.            

 

Statistically it is backed up because teams will on average score an extra point when they defer kicks to the 2nd half and also have a 12% chance of stealing a possession. In all of the games I watched this year I think maybe once or twice did I see a team win the toss and take the ball first. It just almost never happens.

 

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/opening-kickoff-receive-or-defer/

Edited November 2, 2023 by Big Turk

[Herc11]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

LMAO! If he thinks this is bad just wait...

 

 

Gat dang that dude has some tree trunks for legs

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, Herc11 said:

Gat dang that dude has some tree trunks for legs

 

Yeah...dude has a future in bodybuilding if he wants post NFL career...that is just elite, elite genetics right there.