Week 9 thread - We’re on to Cincinnati

[Maine-iac]

Just now, newcam2012 said:

How is Shorter playing? 

About as well as Elam ................ hopefully they are learning something and show up next year.

[PaattMaann]

2 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Nice breakdown. I think that's best case scenario here for the Bills. The Bills have been pretty poor at stopping the run and at defending screen passes. A successful run game will open up things for Burrow. Burrow will beat the Bills or at least take advantage of one on one situations. He's proven this in the past. I don't think the Bills can afford to give up big plays. I suspect we see a lot of bend but don't break defense from McD. He simply doesn't have the players to stop the Bengals offense. The Bills defense is not good. At best, they have to be really good in the red zone and hope for a couple of turnovers. 

 

On offensive, the Bills should be able to score. However, Lou A knows how to defend and confuse Allen. He will continually mix up his defenses and bring timely blitzes. I believe Allen will be under lots of duress. Brown will likely be exploited. Nevertheless, Allen should be able to make plays. Need a big game from Cook and another player besides Diggs. 

 

There is a path for the Bills to win. I think it's slim and not a 50 50 game. I give the Bills about a 35% to win. 

 

I think McD saw how bend but dont break worked, or rather DIDN'T work the last time we played the Bengals and wont go that route...even if we don't have the horses to play the aggressive route perfectly. He has still been aggressive the past few weeks even after the injuries (the results have largely sucked but he hasn't given that up). 

 

Lou A did defend and confuse Allen and Dorsey last year, but its a new year with new pieces and hopefully answers from the Bills offense. And the Bengals D isn't the same either. A large piece of their coverage discipline and disguise was their safeties, both of whom now play elsewhere. The new guys can play, but their D has taken time to gel and they looked pretty good last week but they still aren't at the level of the playoffs last year. I don't think its a given that we struggle the same way. I think Kincaid has himself a DAY and will be that big game from another play besides Diggs you are seeking. I also see Cook continuing his string of solid performances. 

 

This is why they play the games! 

[Maine-iac]

8 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

I think McD saw how bend but dont break worked, or rather DIDN'T work the last time we played the Bengals and wont go that route...even if we don't have the horses to play the aggressive route perfectly. He has still been aggressive the past few weeks even after the injuries (the results have largely sucked but he hasn't given that up). 

 

Lou A did defend and confuse Allen and Dorsey last year, but its a new year with new pieces and hopefully answers from the Bills offense. And the Bengals D isn't the same either. A large piece of their coverage discipline and disguise was their safeties, both of whom now play elsewhere. The new guys can play, but their D has taken time to gel and they looked pretty good last week but they still aren't at the level of the playoffs last year. I don't think its a given that we struggle the same way. I think Kincaid has himself a DAY and will be that big game from another play besides Diggs you are seeking. I also see Cook continuing his string of solid performances. 

 

This is why they play the games! 

McD has definitely been blitzing a lot more.  Would have never seen that from Frazier.  The problem is he's mostly been run blitzing because we've had problems stopping the run.  The good thing is that we've been doing this for a monthi now so I think McDermott has a better feel for what works and what doesn't and mixing it up better.

[Royale with Cheese]

Beane is leaving the door open on Rasul for him playing Sunday.  They're going to see how he picks up the defense mentally through Saturday's walk through.

[PaattMaann]

1 minute ago, Maine-iac said:

McD has definitely been blitzing a lot more.  Would have never seen that from Frazier.  The problem is he's mostly been run blitzing because we've had problems stopping the run.  The good thing is that we've been doing this for a monthi now so I think McDermott has a better feel for what works and what doesn't and mixing it up better.

 

Absolutely, And even when he's not run blitzing on passing downs he has been muddying up the pressure looks. It seems like people forget this is a way different looking defense than Fraziers. The results have sucked since the injuries but that doesn't change the fact of what they are TRYING to do. Also, the defense looked good for much of the Buc's game with the largely new look dime package (I realize they ran it a little the week before) being utilized. I trust McD history as a defensive coordinator that given time he will put together a solid defense even with all the injuries. He, and they, are figuring it out. 

[DuckyBoys]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

Agree 100%. I've yet to hear how the Bills D will be successful in containing the Bengals offense. What's the McD game plan? 

I don't think anyone is saying the Bills have "no shot." That's pretty ridiculous. No shot is much different than saying people think they will lose.

What's your opinion on the game? Who do you think will win and why? 

I think the Bills win because they play closer to their ceiling instead of showing up lackluster   I bet they have been stewing on that Bengals playoff loss and come out to prove a point  I'll be very disappointed if the Bills show up flat again.  Will also be angry if McDermott coaches scared this week  Just play to win and dont be afraid to take shots on both sides of the ball

[Warriorspikes51]

*Drops Linval Joseph onto the field with a parachute from a Military Transport Aircraft*

Get em boys!! 

[newcam2012]

32 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

I think McD saw how bend but dont break worked, or rather DIDN'T work the last time we played the Bengals and wont go that route...even if we don't have the horses to play the aggressive route perfectly. He has still been aggressive the past few weeks even after the injuries (the results have largely sucked but he hasn't given that up). 

 

Lou A did defend and confuse Allen and Dorsey last year, but its a new year with new pieces and hopefully answers from the Bills offense. And the Bengals D isn't the same either. A large piece of their coverage discipline and disguise was their safeties, both of whom now play elsewhere. The new guys can play, but their D has taken time to gel and they looked pretty good last week but they still aren't at the level of the playoffs last year. I don't think its a given that we struggle the same way. I think Kincaid has himself a DAY and will be that big game from another play besides Diggs you are seeking. I also see Cook continuing his string of solid performances. 

 

This is why they play the games! 

I think if McD blitzes Burrow he will burn the Bills secondary. Burrow has a very nice track record of beating blitzes. He's been aggressive against terrible or sub par QBs. Tyrod, Baker, Jimmy G, and Howell. Lawrence was able to be effective especially in big third downs. Tua is the glaring example of success. Burrow looks to be healthy and hitting his stride. He has to be confident playing the Bills. Truthfully, I don't see a solid path for McD to stop Cinci. I think a bend but don't break is the best way to win. Hope for red zone success and a few turnovers. This depleted D isn't very good. An aggressive D will likely get tourched by Burrow. I'm not sure they can stop Mixon running and in the screen game. 

 

I think Cook is the key to the offense. His running and passing catching has to be excellent. This will open up things for Allen. I think Shakir will have a nice game. Kincaid might be slowed down as teams begin to game plan for him. Diggs is Diggs. Dorsey has to get creative and have a solid game plan for the Bengals pressure. I think Lou will be very aggressive early in and then makes adjustments as need be. Dorsey has to be able to make similar effective adjustments. He just can't keep doing what's not working. He really sucked in last years game. A bit concerned that he's overmatched. Lastly, Allen has to use his legs. RPOs, scrambles, etc ...

 

 

[PaattMaann]

Just now, newcam2012 said:

I think if McD blitzes Burrow he will burn the Bills secondary. Burrow has a very nice track record of beating blitzes. He's been aggressive against terrible or sub par QBs. Tyrod, Baker, Jimmy G, and Howell. Lawrence was able to be effective especially in big third downs. Tua is the glaring example of success. Burrow looks to be healthy and hitting his stride. He has to be confident playing the Bills. Truthfully, I don't see a solid path for McD to stop Cinci. I think a bend but don't break is the best way to win. Hope for red zone success and a few turnovers. This depleted D isn't very good. An aggressive D will likely get tourched by Burrow. I'm not sure they can stop Mixon running and in the screen game. 

 

I think Cook is the key to the offense. His running and passing catching has to be excellent. This will open up things for Allen. I think Shakir will have a nice game. Kincaid might be slowed down as teams begin to game plan for him. Diggs is Diggs. Dorsey has to get creative and have a solid game plan for the Bengals pressure. I think Lou will be very aggressive early in and then makes adjustments as need be. Dorsey has to be able to make similar effective adjustments. He just can't keep doing what's not working. He really sucked in last years game. A bit concerned that he's overmatched. Lastly, Allen has to use his legs. RPOs, scrambles, etc ...

 

 

 

Simulated pressure is different than a blitz, and is what we have been doing pass rush wise and what I expect and am referring to. Frazier D last year rushed four, you knew what 4 were coming ,and the wrinkle was disguised coverage on the backend. Burrow ate that up. I expect sim pressure, married with disguised coverage and DBs closer to the line to slow their offense down. I did not mean we would be blitzing burrow often. 

[newcam2012]

6 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

I think the Bills win because they play closer to their ceiling instead of showing up lackluster   I bet they have been stewing on that Bengals playoff loss and come out to prove a point  I'll be very disappointed if the Bills show up flat again.  Will also be angry if McDermott coaches scared this week  Just play to win and dont be afraid to take shots on both sides of the ball

I have no concerns about the team being flat. That's a non issue. I di believe McD will be aggressive and assertive. In big games he's shown the ability to go for it in 4th downs. I believe he will play to win. I don't believe the Bills lose because of lack of desire, effort, or playing scared. I believe they lose because Cinci has too many offensive weapons, an elite QB, are a bad match up for Buffalo, are at home, and have proven recipe to beat the Bills. 

[Royale with Cheese]

I really, really hope Douglas can actually play.  I currently do not trust our corners right now.  They're not bad, they're okay and okay isn't usually strong enough to stop a trio like Cincy's. 

 

You can't just take away Burrow's first read like you can with Tua....Burrow will find that secondary or third option quickly.  

This is what scares me about the game.  Douglas will alleviate some of that concern.

[Logic]

I think that the Bills will be really "up" for this one, the way they were against Miami.

This Bills team sometimes plays up or down to its opponents. There are times when they demolish the bad teams, sure, but also times when they make it way harder than it needs to be (as we have seen a few times this year already). Likewise, when they have a big matchup against a quality opponent, they often come out firing.

After the confidence boost against Tampa and with the defensive reinforcements added -- who I think will be active and play at least a rotation of snaps -- I think the Bills play a good game on Sunday night.

I expect the team to be fired up to avenge the playoff loss and to show that they belong in the conversation for best team in the league. I think they're eager to wash the bad taste of a mid-season slump out of their mouths, and I think they know that 6-3 is worlds apart from 5-4, particularly with how tough the upcoming schedule will get.

The Bengals are firing on all cylinders, too, and they're the home team, so I can't say with certainty that the Bills will win. But I think they'll be focused, effective, and play good football. 

[Maine-iac]

1 minute ago, newcam2012 said:

I have no concerns about the team being flat. That's a non issue. I di believe McD will be aggressive and assertive. In big games he's shown the ability to go for it in 4th downs. I believe he will play to win. I don't believe the Bills lose because of lack of desire, effort, or playing scared. I believe they lose because Cinci has too many offensive weapons, an elite QB, are a bad match up for Buffalo, are at home, and have proven recipe to beat the Bills. 

I have to believe a large part of the Miami win component was our offense putting pressure on Miami to keep up.  Bengals will largely be the same (or could be the same).  Our defense has a punchers chance if our offense can keep the Bengals passing.  I get it that Burrow is great and the WR's are great but our best chance for getting turnovers is playing coverage and bringing pressure.  If the Bengals are up and running the ball I'm not saying we can't punch it out but generally if we are creating turnovers it's in pass defense.  We still have our pass rushers and our secondary outside of White.  We should be in a better position than last year which in the 3rd qtr was a 17-10 game at one point.  I think the first first possessions on offense well say a lot about how the day might go.

[newcam2012]

2 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

Simulated pressure is different than a blitz, and is what we have been doing pass rush wise and what I expect and am referring to. Frazier D last year rushed four, you knew what 4 were coming ,and the wrinkle was disguised coverage on the backend. Burrow ate that up. I expect sim pressure, married with disguised coverage and DBs closer to the line to slow their offense down. I did not mean we would be blitzing burrow often. 

The Bills are a zone defense. Do you think they have the CBs for press coverage? Chase and Higgins will likely run right past the Bills slower CBs. Burrow will recognize the mismatch and take full advantage. Also, don't discount the ability of Burrow to extend plays and make big runs with his legs. I see the Bengals making first down after first down with the Bills defense having a difficult time getting off the field. Feels like the Bills won't be able to string together 3 consecutive stops. Maybe that's just my negativity. Hope im wrong. 

 

Meanwhile, the Bills offense is very good but still a work in progress. Josh has a injuries should and not fully practicing. Not ideal at all. The offensive consistency is a bit worrisome. Last week was encouraging but they still only scored 25 points. Can and will the

"others" step up in a big road game in a hostile environment? Always easier for younger guys in a home environment. 

[MikePJ76]

The bengals are 3-2 with Alex Kemp as the Referee....he is the ref sunday night.

 

https://x.com/ByJayMorrison/status/1719787830166122504?s=20

[PaattMaann]

5 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

The Bills are a zone defense. Do you think they have the CBs for press coverage? Chase and Higgins will likely run right past the Bills slower CBs. Burrow will recognize the mismatch and take full advantage. Also, don't discount the ability of Burrow to extend plays and make big runs with his legs. I see the Bengals making first down after first down with the Bills defense having a difficult time getting off the field. Feels like the Bills won't be able to string together 3 consecutive stops. Maybe that's just my negativity. Hope im wrong. 

 

Meanwhile, the Bills offense is very good but still a work in progress. Josh has a injuries should and not fully practicing. Not ideal at all. The offensive consistency is a bit worrisome. Last week was encouraging but they still only scored 25 points. Can and will the

"others" step up in a big road game in a hostile environment? Always easier for younger guys in a home environment. 

 

I said nothing about press coverage...it is possible for DBs to play closer to the line of scrimmage (not give 10 yard cushions ala last year) and not play press coverage 

[newcam2012]

2 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

I have to believe a large part of the Miami win component was our offense putting pressure on Miami to keep up.  Bengals will largely be the same (or could be the same).  Our defense has a punchers chance if our offense can keep the Bengals passing.  I get it that Burrow is great and the WR's are great but our best chance for getting turnovers is playing coverage and bringing pressure.  If the Bengals are up and running the ball I'm not saying we can't punch it out but generally if we are creating turnovers it's in pass defense.  We still have our pass rushers and our secondary outside of White.  We should be in a better position than last year which in the 3rd qtr was a 17-10 game at one point.  I think the first first possessions on offense well say a lot about how the day might go.

I think it's worth pointing out the Bengals run a west coast offense. That means Burrow gets rid of the ball quickly. Takes deep strikes when he sees obvious one on one advantages. The Bills were successful vs Tua despite his quick releases. However, it's quite different because Tua is mostly a first read QB. Burrow is able to go through his progressions and use his legs in big situations. Burrow is by far the best QB the Bills have faced. I don't see this defense stopping the Bengals O. Sorry.

[Big Turk]

Linval to Mixon:  "C'mon in here Joe...c'mon...you can come running up in here, but you gonna be limping back, I promise you that."

[newcam2012]

Just now, PaattMaann said:

 

I said nothing about press coverage...it is possible for DBs to play closer to the line of scrimmage (not give 10 yard cushions ala last year) and not play press coverage 

Oh ok. You think giving a 5 yard cushion is the answer!  Not being sarcastic but I don't understand this strategy. Do you really think the Bills secondary can be successful vs the Bengals pass catchers? I say it's unlikely. Heck, Mac Jones looked like an all pro a few of weeks ago. Tyrod marched down for the winning score. Thank you refs for the gift win. 

 

I get being optimistic but we also have to be realistic too. The fact remains the Bills D is very vulnerable vs a dangerous offense. 

 

The best path to victory is Josh Allen playing Superman with several Batmans contributing. 

[Billsfan1972]

2 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

Me too. But people in here are pre-losing games in their minds to avoid impending disappointment. I hope the team doesn't do that. We have Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. We can beat anyone.

The one's pre-losing are generally the McD apologists.  Prove me wrong....  Any team with Josh Allen as QB, should be winning 12+ games a year.  Yes sometimes things go wrong, but too often losses of late can be hung on the coaching.