Week 9 thread - We’re on to Cincinnati

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, newcam2012 said:

Incorrect. Home field advantage is usually 2.5 to 3 points advantage. 

 

I think the line should be Bengals -4. 

 

Not anymore it isn't.  Usually a 1 to 1.5 point advantage or sometimes less than that.

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, LyndonvilleBill said:

I think there is more negativity than objective thoughts around here. More so lately.

 

I've had to step away a few times lately and bite my tongue. Not that it's a real resemblance of many great posters around here, but, the GDT almost makes me want to shoot myself (kidding of course) just look at the Douglas threads from yesterday,  half the comments were ridiculous,  let alone from people that had NO IDEA what they were talking about. I don't block people because I like to see everyone's thoughts and opinions,  but some OMG!! It hurts to think about...🤣

I concur 100%. I suspect you are talking about all the negativity. However, it cuts both ways here. For example, look at when the Bills acquired Beasley and ZBrien last year. Many and I mean many were taunting how they would be difference makers. Just look at every draft pick made. Many and I mean many think the picks are fantastic. 

 

Yes, the negativity is bad here but the homerism is equally out of control. 

 

That's the beauty of this forum. However, too many people take exception to others opinions because it doesn't fit their narrative. I mean I get the troll accusations often for my negativity. It is what it is...

[Low Positive]

1 minute ago, newcam2012 said:

I concur 100%. I suspect you are talking about all the negativity. However, it cuts both ways here. For example, look at when the Bills acquired Beasley and ZBrien last year. Many and I mean many were taunting how they would be difference makers. Just look at every draft pick made. Many and I mean many think the picks are fantastic. 

 

Yes, the negativity is bad here but the homerism is equally out of control. 

 

That's the beauty of this forum. However, too many people take exception to others opinions because it doesn't fit their narrative. I mean I get the troll accusations often for my negativity. It is what it is...

I hear ya. I'm usually positive on this forum because I don't see the value in preparing myself for letdowns, but if you came into my office right now I could unleash a 30-minute rant on that inexcusable loss to the Pats two weeks ago. I'm still pissed, and if the Bills don't make the playoffs we'll point back to that game. 

 

But to assume that the Bills will lose this Sunday is a bit too much. Let's look back at that game in SF. It was really close until it wasn't. It was 17-10 in the 4th when Brock Purdy threw an interception at his own 20 to gift the Bengals a free TD. Then the Niners marched down the field to score a TD of their own to make it 24-17. Right back in it. The next Bengals TD drive was a killer, I'll give you that. And the week before that, the Bengals scored TDs on their first two drives and then managed 3 points over the next three quarters. I'm not saying that the Bengals are not a good team. They are a very good team. But you and others here are treating them like they're the Greatest Show on Turf on offense and the 85 Bears on defense. Let's let the game play out. If they get destroyed, I'll be right alongside you and everyone calling for everyone to be fired.   

[ShakAttack]

It’s all about matchups. We can’t really compare the Seahawks-Bengals game to our situation because their defense matched up better vs. the Bengals offense than ours does currently.  Either we need to generate pressure from our interior DL and/or tighten up coverage against their quick and efficient passing game which is much easier said than done. So it seems to me pressure from DTs is the key to slowing down Burrow and the offense, but nothing we’ve seen post-Daquan Jones gives me any reason for optimism there.

 

idk… hopefully we found something somewhere in that extra time we had to prepare for this game. 

[newcam2012]

31 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

I hear ya. I'm usually positive on this forum because I don't see the value in preparing myself for letdowns, but if you came into my office right now I could unleash a 30-minute rant on that inexcusable loss to the Pats two weeks ago. I'm still pissed, and if the Bills don't make the playoffs we'll point back to that game. 

 

But to assume that the Bills will lose this Sunday is a bit too much. Let's look back at that game in SF. It was really close until it wasn't. It was 17-10 in the 4th when Brock Purdy threw an interception at his own 20 to gift the Bengals a free TD. Then the Niners marched down the field to score a TD of their own to make it 24-17. Right back in it. The next Bengals TD drive was a killer, I'll give you that. And the week before that, the Bengals scored TDs on their first two drives and then managed 3 points over the next three quarters. I'm not saying that the Bengals are not a good team. They are a very good team. But you and others here are treating them like they're the Greatest Show on Turf on offense and the 85 Bears on defense. Let's let the game play out. If they get destroyed, I'll be right alongside you and everyone calling for everyone to be fired.   

That's fair very good post. For the record, the Bills can absolutely win the game. I'm not day ng they can't. I'm saying I don't think they will. 

[Big Turk]

19 minutes ago, BobBelcher said:

It’s all about matchups. We can’t really compare the Seahawks-Bengals game to our situation because their defense matched up better vs. the Bengals offense than ours does currently.  Either we need to generate pressure from our interior DL and/or tighten up coverage against their quick and efficient passing game which is much easier said than done. So it seems to me pressure from DTs is the key to slowing down Burrow and the offense, but nothing we’ve seen post-Daquan Jones gives me any reason for optimism there.

 

idk… hopefully we found something somewhere in that extra time we had to prepare for this game. 

 

Seattle's secondary is pretty good...2 really good CB's, one of them with crazy sub 4.3 speed in Wooten(who they got in the 5th round in the same draft as Elam)

Edited November 1, 2023 by Big Turk

[CincyBillsFan]

17 minutes ago, BobBelcher said:

It’s all about matchups. We can’t really compare the Seahawks-Bengals game to our situation because their defense matched up better vs. the Bengals offense than ours does currently.  Either we need to generate pressure from our interior DL and/or tighten up coverage against their quick and efficient passing game which is much easier said than done. So it seems to me pressure from DTs is the key to slowing down Burrow and the offense, but nothing we’ve seen post-Daquan Jones gives me any reason for optimism there.

 

idk… hopefully we found something somewhere in that extra time we had to prepare for this game. 

Yes it is all about "matchups" and IMO our offense represents a much more dangerous foe then the Sea Hawks O did.  In fact if the Bengal's D plays the Bills in the same way they played Seattle I like our chances.

 

[newcam2012]

16 minutes ago, BobBelcher said:

It’s all about matchups. We can’t really compare the Seahawks-Bengals game to our situation because their defense matched up better vs. the Bengals offense than ours does currently.  Either we need to generate pressure from our interior DL and/or tighten up coverage against their quick and efficient passing game which is much easier said than done. So it seems to me pressure from DTs is the key to slowing down Burrow and the offense, but nothing we’ve seen post-Daquan Jones gives me any reason for optimism there.

 

idk… hopefully we found something somewhere in that extra time we had to prepare for this game. 

I agree. The Bengals are a very bad match up for the Bills. I mean last year their oline was missing 3 starters  and the Bills pass rush was still ineffective. They couldn't stop the run or pass. I'm not convinced this defense is any better now. Maybe it's worse? They almost got beat by Tyrod and Mac Jones did what he did. Burrow isn't Baker or Tua. 

[PaattMaann]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Would like to see them stay up-tempo to reduce the number of exotic blitz looks Cincy can dial up and make things easier on the offense in terms of reads and forcing them to stay in personnel groupings they like.

 

tougher to use tempo on the road due to crowd noise...but the Bills have always been pretty good at using hand signals/silent communcation so it could still be utilized throughout different parts of the game (get a first down and then go up tempo because first downs kill crowd noise, etc.)

[balln]

1 hour ago, first_and_ten said:

 

I agree with what you said, but the Bills have looked out of sorts ever since that London trip. 

As dan O said. Lou A handled / deciphered Kyle shananhans offense. And dismantled it. 
 

I don’t have faith that Ken D can win v Lou A. And the cincy o vs our d is just a huge mismatch any way you slice it.

 

32 minutes ago, BobBelcher said:

It’s all about matchups. We can’t really compare the Seahawks-Bengals game to our situation because their defense matched up better vs. the Bengals offense than ours does currently.  Either we need to generate pressure from our interior DL and/or tighten up coverage against their quick and efficient passing game which is much easier said than done. So it seems to me pressure from DTs is the key to slowing down Burrow and the offense, but nothing we’ve seen post-Daquan Jones gives me any reason for optimism there.

 

idk… hopefully we found something somewhere in that extra time we had to prepare for this game. 

Agreed. Gonna have to be a radical change on d. Like groot and shaq at DT to rush / get hands up to squash short passing game.

 

or rush 2-3 DL and just flood the field.

 

but McD doesn’t do anything like that. It’s the same. Putting poyer at OLB and rapp at safety is concerning. Cincy will abuse that in a second 

[Boatdrinks]

3 minutes ago, balln said:

As dan O said. Lou A handled / deciphered Kyle shananhans offense. And dismantled it. 
 

I don’t have faith that Ken D can win v Lou A. And the cincy o vs our d is just a huge mismatch any way you slice it.

 

Lol that’s a bit strong on the CIN defense. SF got plenty of yards and moved the ball well, even without Deebo and their All world OT. Their QB puked on his shoes and gave the game away late. We get it though; you’re a Bengals fan and that’s fine. 

[balln]

17 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I agree. The Bengals are a very bad match up for the Bills. I mean last year their oline was missing 3 starters  and the Bills pass rush was still ineffective. They couldn't stop the run or pass. I'm not convinced this defense is any better now. Maybe it's worse? They almost got beat by Tyrod and Mac Jones did what he did. Burrow isn't Baker or Tua. 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401438007
 

wasn’t about the pass rush. They kicked the BILLs in the mouth running the ball. 

Just now, Boatdrinks said:

Lol that’s a bit strong on the CIN defense. SF got plenty of yards and moved the ball well, even without Deebo and their All world OT. Their QB puked on his shoes and gave the game away late. We get it though; you’re a Bengals fan and that’s fine. 

I trust Dan Os take over your homer one. Go listen to yesterdays one bills live segment. 

[Boatdrinks]

2 minutes ago, balln said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401438007
 

wasn’t about the pass rush. They kicked the BILLs in the mouth running the ball. 

I trust Dan Os take over your homer one. Go listen to yesterdays one bills live segment. 

Okay, no homer take here - I’ve not said the Bills will definitely win the game. The Bengals are not exactly the ‘80s Niners and ‘85 Bears rolled into one though. 
The playoff game was a lackluster performance as you’ll see. It was also a classic case of getting outsmarted. The Bengals did exactly what you should do in the cold and snow that day. Run, get short throws in the hands of the WRs and let the skill guys run for the easy first downs the Bills scheme was ridiculously handing them. The Bills looked like they had zero idea how to play in snow - on both sides of the ball. They deserved the lumps they took that day. I don’t think it’s necessarily any indication of what to expect on Sunday night. Again, there’s not a lot of history between these teams / QBs to go on. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, proudDAD said:

I think Buffalo wins this game. Cincinnati played a mentally depleted team in the playoffs. We had already lost that game even b4 kickoff. Not this time! 

Mentally and physically depleted lol we had pretty much no one in the trenches on defense in that one…it more than offset them losing a few offensive linemen.  I think the only reason we were picked by a majority of the experts was those offensive line injuries for cincy. 

[balln]

2 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Okay, no homer take here - I’ve not said the Bills will definitely win the game. The Bengals are not exactly the ‘80s Niners and ‘85 Bears rolled into one though. 
The playoff game was a lackluster performance as you’ll see. It was also a classic case of getting outsmarted. The Bengals did exactly what you should do in the cold and snow that day. Run, get short throws in the hands of the WRs and let the skill guys run for the easy first downs the Bills scheme was ridiculously handing them. The Bills looked like they had zero idea how to play in snow - on both sides of the ball. They deserved the lumps they took that day. I don’t think it’s necessarily any indication of what to expect on Sunday night. Again, there’s not a lot of history between these teams / QBs to go on. 

I agree w you. Except- I saw them play mnf before Hamlin injury. They were gonna get boat raced that game too. It’s just a bad matchup for us.

 

it’s especially bad w no DQ and Milano. But I think Douglas is better than tre right now. Of course sounds like beane and the coaches won’t play him.

[zow2]

I still like McDermott in revenge games.  Granted, the Bills have not had too many in recent seasons, since many teams look for revenge against Buffalo.   But I've kept a mental rolodex on this and McD has always had the team prepared well for games like this.

[The Wiz]

 

[Boatdrinks]

1 minute ago, balln said:

I agree w you. Except- I saw them play mnf before Hamlin injury. They were gonna get boat raced that game too. It’s just a bad matchup for us.

 

it’s especially bad w no DQ and Milano. But I think Douglas is better than tre right now. Of course sounds like beane and the coaches won’t play him.

Not so sure on the MNF either. It was 7-3 pretty quick- Bills could probably have gone for it too. Even if you spot CIN 14-3 for a bit, it could very quickly have been 14-10. Not quite a drubbing after say a quarter or so of football. This matchup thing is a bit overblown yet it’s accepted as gospel after basically a single meeting between two teams. 

[TheWei44]

To me, a lot comes down to seeing the same up-tempo/spread the ball around offense like we saw most of TB game.  If our O is clicking like it was last game, we'll be in good shape regardless of the other side of the ball.  Mix in some well-timed JA runs and maybe a trick play or two (haven't seen one in awhile).  My prediction is a close game, over 55 points scored, and it'll come down to the end.  Not necessarily a shootout but a fair amount of scoring.

Edited November 1, 2023 by TheWei44

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

42 minutes ago, balln said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401438007
 

wasn’t about the pass rush. They kicked the BILLs in the mouth running the ball. 

I trust Dan Os take over your homer one. Go listen to yesterdays one bills live segment. 

Idk how saying SF piled up a bunch of yards missing two huge pieces of their offense is a homer take.  That’s literally factual information.  If we’re hyping up their offense strictly from the SF game shouldn’t it also be fair to nitpick the defense from that game as well? 
Cincy is also down both safeties from last season one of which is fantastic so I think assuming their defense is gonna be peak 2022 form due to one win is mostly illogical anyway. 
 

id be shocked if SF didn’t go over 550 yards with Deebo/Trent Williams playing.  Our offensive line is inconsistent but that SF oline is flat out bad when you take Williams out of the equation 

 

guaranteed if we had beaten sf last week the ‘we have no chance against cincy’ crew would be falling all over themselves to be the first to post about the guys SF was missing and how the win shouldn’t count 

 

the ‘cincy is gonna destroy us the oddsmakers got the spread so wrong’ crew is letting me down man…I thought y’all would push the spread up to 4.5 and I could swoop in and take the bills 😂. Spread has actually gone a half point in buffalos favor recently…I’ve been following closely

 

24 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Not so sure on the MNF either. It was 7-3 pretty quick- Bills could probably have gone for it too. Even if you spot CIN 14-3 for a bit, it could very quickly have been 14-10. Not quite a drubbing after say a quarter or so of football. This matchup thing is a bit overblown yet it’s accepted as gospel after basically a single meeting between two teams. 

That’s what surprised me so much about the playoff game…we were mauling their dline on that first drive in the regular season matchup so I expected more of the same.  Looked like our guys were on roller skates in the playoff game like they all made horrible footwear decisions or something lol

Edited November 1, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan