Week 9 thread - We’re on to Cincinnati

[balln]

2 minutes ago, Buddy Hix said:

Cinci is only a 1.5 point favourite...lock that in while you can, it's like free money.

Lock what 

[Low Positive]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167487002002118

 

Quote

The strategy of lowering expectations is consistent with the assumed link between expectations and satisfaction. Feather, 1967, Feather, 1969 suggested that people perceive unexpected positive outcomes as more attractive than expected positive outcomes and unexpected negative outcomes as more repulsive than expected negative outcomes. Thus, irrespective of whether an outcome is favorable or unfavorable, the lower one’s initial expectations, the greater one’s satisfaction or the less intense one’s disappointment with the actual outcome. Hence, when people are faced with uncertainty regarding the occurrence of a desirable outcome, they may attempt to protect themselves from the experience of disappointment by underestimating their chances of obtaining the outcome in question.1

 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

12 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

What is the plan against Chase? 
 

 

I think they’ll likely play a ton of zone, trying to mix in some man coverages with pressures at times. I don’t see McD being overly agressive. I imagine it’ll be extremely frustrating to watch, but likely the right thing to do. 
 

4 hours ago, stlbills13 said:

The Bengals match up well against the Bills. Burrow is fine with a 15 play 75 yard drive for a touchdown. He won't force that hero pass. Mixon is a violent runner (person) who can hurt our poor tackling. It's a prime time road game.

 

But the game is more than winnable if the right Bills show up all week.

 

We have the mini bye. We needed it to get healthier and game plan.

 

McD needs to get creative defensively even with a depleted defense. Throw a lot of looks at burrow

 

Von needs to get to burrow. His speed can disrupt that timing. It might not be fair to him to expect that but he has to do it 

 

Floyd AJ GR also have to pressure Burrow. If you can pressure for 4 (or even 3) you will get it done

 

The safeties have to be all over the place

 

Let's see hero Josh. You don't win this one playing conservative offensively 

So Burrow can play conservatively but Allen shouldn’t? Josh needs to do what he did last week. Keep taking the easy money when it’s there, and create when it’s not. No need to unnecessarily do one or the other. I’m fine making Burrow do that, because I do believe our offense can keep stride. 
 

25 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

I'd imagine a very similar game plan as we had against Miami. Cloud him wherever he goes.

Do you think it’s possible to do this and still bring unique pressures? From what I’ve seen and read, that Bengals OL has struggled not only in picking up pressures in pass pro, but has had difficult times blocking up front in the run game. Maybe we could see more simulated pressure looks that I initially thought? I would also be curious to see how we’d fair with some run stunts/blitzes to try and shake them up. I feel like it could play well for 91 and 97 if we get agressive at the DT position. 

Edited October 30, 2023 by EmotionallyUnstable

[Success]

Burrow was great yesterday - but it's also true that SF handed them the game.  They turned it over too much to have a chance.

 

This is a good, even match-up for the Bills.  Cincy is not measurably better than we are overall, or really, in any position unit.

 

I think we win, but it will likely be a close game and could be one of those "whoever has the ball last" kinds of games.

 

 

[balln]

1 minute ago, Success said:

Burrow was great yesterday - but it's also true that SF handed them the game.  They turned it over too much to have a chance.

 

This is a good, even match-up for the Bills.  Cincy is not measurably better than we are overall, or really, in any position unit.

 

I think we win, but it will likely be a close game and could be one of those "whoever has the ball last" kinds of games.

 

 

Their coaches Are measurably better 

[Casey D]

3 hours ago, Bob Jones said:

I mean, it sounds like people are just being realistic. You did see their last 3 games, right?

Perhaps, but it is still depressing.  The Bills are 2 point underdogs and the sentiments here seem to suggest we do not have a prayer and should be 14 point underdogs.

[Big Turk]

15 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

I think they’ll likely play a ton of zone, trying to mix in some man coverages with pressures at times. I don’t see McD being overly agressive. I imagine it’ll be extremely frustrating to watch, but likely the right thing to do. 
 

So Burrow can play conservatively but Allen shouldn’t? Josh needs to do what he did last week. Keep taking the easy money when it’s there, and create when it’s not. No need to unnecessarily do one or the other. I’m fine making Burrow do that, because I do believe our offense can keep stride. 
 

Do you think it’s possible to do this and still bring unique pressures? From what I’ve seen and read, that Bengals OL has struggled not only in picking up pressures in pass pro, but has had difficult times blocking up front in the run game. Maybe we could see more simulated pressure looks that I initially thought? I would also be curious to see how we’d fair with some run stunts/blitzes to try and shake them up. I feel like it could play well for 91 and 97 if we get agressive at the DT position. 

 

 

Sometimes what looks like Josh "taking the easy money" actually is Josh playing off script and NOT taking the easy money.  Like when he ignores the hot read on a blitz and goes to other side of the field after a half rollout away from the blitzer(think throw to Shakir in the flat against TB where he turns it up and runs over the defender on the sideline).  Honestly, think he is allowed to have his own set of rules he plays by because he is able to do things nobody else can is where I end up with.  Sometimes that gets him in trouble when his answer isn't there, but the easy one was right away.

 

We can't have it both ways tho...when you LOVE the play Allen makes off script by not taking the "easy throw" but then hate when he "doesn't throw hot" when it's there on a play where it didn't work, it doesn't make a lot of sense, because both start from the same place. At the end of the day, we are just going to have to live with it, because it works a lot more than not.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Big Turk

[stlbills13]

8 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 

So Burrow can play conservatively but Allen shouldn’t? Josh needs to do what he did last week. Keep taking the easy money when it’s there, and create when it’s not. No need to unnecessarily do one or the other. I’m fine making Burrow do that, because I do believe our offense can keep stride. 

 

 

That's just more Burrow's style than Allen's. That's also more the Bills defense style than the Bengals. 

[Franco_92]

Cinci was great yesterday but still only had 17 points pretty deep into Q4 IIRC. 

[HoofHearted]

6 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Do you think it’s possible to do this and still bring unique pressures? From what I’ve seen and read, that Bengals OL has struggled not only in picking up pressures in pass pro, but has had difficult times blocking up front in the run game. Maybe we could see more simulated pressure looks that I initially thought? I would also be curious to see how we’d fair with some run stunts/blitzes to try and shake them up. I feel like it could play well for 91 and 97 if we get agressive at the DT position. 

You can still run 5 man pressures and do it. Anything more you'd have to change coverages. As far as run stunts the goal is always to be able to just handle the run out of base to allow your backers to not be tied to gaps and flow. What'll change that philosophy for us is if we allow their OL to start working up to our second level - that's when you'll see us start to incorporate some run stunts.

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, Franco_92 said:

Cinci was great yesterday but still only had 17 points pretty deep into Q4 IIRC. 

 

For all of their skill positions and weapons, you would think they would score a lot more points than they actually do.

Just now, HoofHearted said:

You can still run 5 man pressures and do it. Anything more you'd have to change coverages. As far as run stunts the goal is always to be able to just handle the run out of base to allow your backers to not be tied to gaps and flow. What'll change that philosophy for us is if we allow their OL to start working up to our second level - that's when you'll see us start to incorporate some run stunts.

 

It looks like McD runs a lot of simulated pressures where you don't always know which 4 guys are coming and sometimes it's overloaded to one side and guys drop out from the other, or some combination of twists/stunts to confuse the OLine.  You see a lot of guys at the line, but most times guys drop and only 4 actually rush.

[balln]

Other thing that wasn’t mentioned. Burrow scrambled very well yesterday. Looked fast. Usually got first downs 

 

why this is important- we are horrific w scrambling. We make baker , mac , tua, Sam Howell , Zach look like Fran tarkenton 

 

 

[Ga boy]

Cowherd just said that Burrow is the second best QB on the planet.  I’m fuming and hope JA17 is too.  Go Bills 🦬

[finn]

20 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

I'd imagine a very similar game plan as we had against Miami. Cloud him wherever he goes.

I'm thinking that the Bills need to surprise the Bengals on both sides of the ball to avoid a blowout. The hurry-up pace Dorsey tried last week is encouraging. I hope they add more wrinkles. It's time to play loose, take some risks. Fake punts, QB runs, going on fourth down, power running, end arounds... This offense is thinking too much. They need to have fun--and stay one step ahead of the Bengals' excellent DC.

 

On defense, maybe replace Dodson with Rapp or Hamlin. Put Rousseau at tackle. Activate the physically talented Elam to erase Chase. Something to flumox an increasingly confident team with momentum.

 

But it's more likely that McDermott will want to stay conservative, kick field goals, play bend-don't-break ball, and hope for a close win. If he does, I predict a Bengals blowout. 

[Boatdrinks]

11 minutes ago, Casey D said:

Perhaps, but it is still depressing.  The Bills are 2 point underdogs and the sentiments here seem to suggest we do not have a prayer and should be 14 point underdogs.

The sentiment here is not a reflection of how unbiased NFL observers are thinking about the game. 

[HoofHearted]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

It looks like McD runs a lot of simulated pressures where you don't always know which 4 guys are coming and sometimes it's overloaded to one side and guys drop out from the other, or some combination of twists/stunts to confuse the OLine.  You see a lot of guys at the line, but most times guys drop and only 4 actually rush.

Yeah, and it's stupid simple to get to. You can do this out of essentially any call by just making a "show" call. You want to be calculated in who shows though in order to take advantage of it (i.e. show overload pressure to one side - have the offense slide to it - then bring pressure from the opposite). Easier to do out of zones than man.

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

20 minutes ago, balln said:

Their coaches Are measurably better 

Zac Taylor has a lifetime winning percentage of .451. McDermott has a lifetime winning percentage of .638.  Zac Taylor only has one lone season where his winning percentage was higher than McDermott's career average.  How is Taylor "measurably better" than McDermott?

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

Zac Taylor has a lifetime winning percentage of .451. McDermott has a lifetime winning percentage of .638.  Zac Taylor only has one lone season where his winning percentage was higher than McDermott's career average.  How is Taylor "measurably better" than McDermott?

 

Only cause his DC is a genius and knows how to make quality playoff level adjustments to slow teams down. Their defense and special teams has won them far more games in the playoffs than their offense has if we are being honest.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Big Turk

[balln]

Just now, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

Zac Taylor has a lifetime winning percentage of .451. McDermott has a lifetime winning percentage of .638.  Zac Taylor only has one lone season where his winning percentage was higher than McDermott's career average.  How is Taylor "measurably better" than McDermott?

Zac Taylor took over a worse roster. Joe was out all year w a knee- so career winning % isn’t doing it for me 

 

He’s beaten kc in arrowhead a LOt. And in the playoffs . He’s beaten McD badly at home in buf. I don’t see dumb TOs or challenges w cin. He’s gone to a Super Bowl 

 

 

 

[Low Positive]

3 minutes ago, balln said:

Zac Taylor took over a worse roster. Joe was out all year w a knee- so career winning % isn’t doing it for me 

 

He’s beaten kc in arrowhead a LOt. And in the playoffs . He’s beaten McD badly at home in buf. I don’t see dumb TOs or challenges w cin. He’s gone to a Super Bowl 

 

 

 

I hear ya, but just for accuracy's sake, Joe Burrow's knee injury in 2020 was in week 11.