JT O'Sullivan QB School Video Breakdown of Allen in Week 8 against TB - some very interesting points

[Big Turk]

 

O'Sullivan makes some very interesting observations and points on the Bills offense and in regards to play design:

 

1) Bills RPO game is exceptional in pretty much every way - scheme, nuances, variety and execution. Bills stretch teams both vertically and horizontally using these. Typically run an ARPO game which adds a "free access" element to the play as well the traditional RPO.  Free access usually comes in the form of a speed out, smoke screen or vertical pressing route(Davis sideline throw in beginning of game/"glance" route in a condensed formation up the seam). O'Sullivan extensively breaks down at least 5-6 plays and is almost salivating at how good it is from all standpoints.  Cannot stop stressing how great they are at it and how well designed it is from every aspect and more advanced than the majority of teams.

 

2) Allen was responsible for the INT due to coming out of the play fake flat instead of taking it "up the chute" or vertical.  Going vertical out of the fake is to enable him have more time to elude a defender or turf it into the ground to a receiver if an unblocked edge player is coming at him which is what happened. Ironically, he also showed how the Bills shifting from a 2x2 set they were in initially to a 3x1 set is what caused Winfield to drop down and pressure...if they stayed in the 2x2 set there would have been no unblocked edge player and likely no INT.

 

3)  Bills "mesh" concepts can sometimes be more like college where they turn it upfield and "run to green grass" versus just across the field.  Said he loved that about the play Shakir caught deep downfield is that both Davis and Diggs who were the shallow mesh crossers turned upfield at the end of the route and says you almost never see that in the NFL as part of the design of the play.  Said Shakir was not even in the route progression on the play most likely which is why Allen took so long to find him as that is normally just a clear out route.

 

3) Allen often times bypasses what "should" be the hot read/progression to create other plays that you are like "No, no, no! Yes!" on . Showed several examples of them.  The Shakir throw where he caught it in the flat and ran over the defender early in the game, the Kincaid throw up the sideline where he made an amazing catch and the Kincaid TD were all examples of Allen bypassing the hot read to choose a different option. I think what we are starting to see is that Allen plays by his own sets of rules on blitzes in terms of hot reads and sometimes they work out really well, and other times they don't(like the last 3 weeks).  Would be interesting to see what the differences were this week that allowed them to mostly work out where they did not the last few weeks.

 

4) Davis could have potentially had another TD on the play that Allen threw just a little too far out in front of him...Davis acted like he might be hot and started to try and settle down after clearing a defender where Allen threw the pass as if he was going to continue running...if Davis kept running Allen hits him in stride and he likely takes it to the house.

 

5) Allen is opening himself up to taking some unnecessary hits by not taking his hot reads at times because he extends plays and often times waits for something downfield to come clear. Example he showed was on the play to Diggs over the middle where Allen doesn't throw hot, rolls out a little and then throws a strike to Diggs which he catches for like 14-15 yards but he takes a pretty good shot.  Could have avoided any hit by just throwing to the hot player initially.

 

All in all, O'Sullivan basically says you have to take the good with the bad because Allen is such a unicorn and can do things that nobody else can do. Said the scramble TD by Allen was crazy because he had 5 defenders converging on him and not a single player even touched him before he waltzed into the endzone.

 

 

 

Edited October 27, 2023 by Big Turk

[Franco_92]

Hmmph. Sounds like JT needs to read the Fire Ken Dorsey Thread. Maybe he'll learn a thing or two about ball.

[Franco_92]

I haven't finished the video, but I like the analysis of the RPO to Davis in the flat that he took for a first down in the red zone. 

 

The run element of the play is the classic "muh shotgun draw" everyone hates - dart - which we run with high success. Enough success apparently that the conflict defender goes to shut it down, opening up the play to Davis. This stuff makes so many posters look like clowns 

[HoofHearted]

If you haven’t watched this you need to (especially if you’re a “Dorsey sucks at play design” guy). He breaks down the RPO game I’ve been referencing all year as well as the mesh concept that everyone is complaining about spacing on. One thing I’d like to clarify from the video. What JT is calling “Access” on the RPO game is really just your man coverage beater. You see this a ton at the college and high school level where you essentially have three options based on what you’re seeing - the run, the pass option off of the run, or abort the whole thing and throw the man beater.

[BillsUberAlles]

1 hour ago, HoofHearted said:

If you haven’t watched this you need to (especially if you’re a “Dorsey sucks at play design” guy). He breaks down the RPO game I’ve been referencing all year as well as the mesh concept that everyone is complaining about spacing on. One thing I’d like to clarify from the video. What JT is calling “Access” on the RPO game is really just your man coverage beater. You see this a ton at the college and high school level where you essentially have three options based on what you’re seeing - the run, the pass option off of the run, or abort the whole thing and throw the man beater.

 

I thought the breakdown of the RPO stuff was pretty fantastic and him showing the player being "read" or "put in conflict" so that he is always wrong because they just choose the other option based on what he does is kind of fascinating.

Edited October 28, 2023 by BillsUberAlles

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

17 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

 

 

All in all, O'Sullivan basically says you have to take the good with the bad because Allen is such a unicorn and can do things that nobody else can do. Said the scramble TD by Allen was crazy because he had 5 defenders converging on him and not a single player even touched him before he waltzed into the endzone.

 

 

I notice that as well. How does a QB as prolific as Allen is at running in TD's go untouched from 13 yards out? That's crazy. 

[HoofHearted]

2 hours ago, BillsUberAlles said:

 

I thought the breakdown of the RPO stuff was pretty fantastic and him showing the player being "read" or "put in conflict" so that he is always wrong because they just choose the other option based on what he does is kind of fascinating.

Yep. This is the whole premise behind the RPO and Option run game (which is almost every QB run scheme we have). It’s also why we have to run Gun.

[CincyBillsFan]

17 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

2) Allen was responsible for the INT due to coming out of the play fake flat instead of taking it "up the chute" or vertical.  Going vertical out of the fake is to enable him have more time to elude a defender or turf it into the ground to a receiver if an unblocked edge player is coming at him which is what happened. Ironically, he also showed how the Bills shifting from a 2x2 set they were in initially to a 3x1 set is what caused Winfield to drop down and pressure...if they stayed in the 2x2 set there would have been no unblocked edge player and likely no INT.

 

He also pointed out that the Bills offensive line needs to knock that ball away because once it was tipped anything goes in pass "coverage" which under the circumstances included the O line.  He basically blamed Morse for allowing the D lineman to catch the ball.  Bottom line is that pass should have been incomplete not INT.

 

[bigduke6]

stumbled upon JTs analysis vids quite awhile ago.  its really good stuff imo.   if you need to know why your teams QB/offense played so well,  or terrible on a given week,  he's the go to for breakdowns.  he's also kind of funny at times lol.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

19 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

 

2) Allen was responsible for the INT due to coming out of the play fake flat instead of taking it "up the chute" or vertical.  Going vertical out of the fake is to enable him have more time to elude a defender or turf it into the ground to a receiver if an unblocked edge player is coming at him which is what happened. Ironically, he also showed how the Bills shifting from a 2x2 set they were in initially to a 3x1 set is what caused Winfield to drop down and pressure...if they stayed in the 2x2 set there would have been no unblocked edge player and likely no INT.

 

 

 

 

 

On that pick, when Winfield came down to the LOS, Josh called out to stick with the bootleg. I think he thought winfield

was coming to crash the run, and so the bootleg was a perfect call.

 

Instead, Winfield 100% was there to go after Josh if that ended up as a bootleg.  So, basically great play by TB and Winfield.

 

That said, the fact that it ended in an interception was just bad luck. 
 

 

[WhoTom]

2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I notice that as well. How does a QB as prolific as Allen is at running in TD's go untouched from 13 yards out? That's crazy. 

 

On the long play to Shakir, he got open because a LB was spying on Josh instead of covering the WR. Josh burned them on that.

 

On the TD run, the D had everyone in coverage, leaving a ton of running space for Josh. Even though five defenders went after him, it was too late - he's just too fast, powerful, and shifty. Any QB not named Allen or Mahomes probably gets tackled around the five-yard line.

 

Essentially, his legs open up the passing game, and his arm creates running lanes.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, WhoTom said:

On the long play to Shakir, he got open because a LB was spying on Josh instead of covering the WR. Josh burned them on that.

 

Actually and not to take away from Shakir, one reason he was so wide open was that the safety fell down.

 

 

[WhoTom]

15 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

Actually and not to take away from Shakir, one reason he was so wide open was that the safety fell down.

 

I suppose that helped a little too. 😉

 

But who knows? He may not have fallen if the LB had been in coverage.

 

[Einstein]

22 hours ago, Big Turk said:

2) Allen was responsible for the INT due to coming out of the play fake flat instead of taking it "up the chute" or vertical.  

Not sure I agree here.

 

Allen was plenty vertical enough to turf it or eat it. He chose to make the throw and it was tipped. Being a yard or two more vertical would not have changed his options.

 

3 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

 the fact that it ended in an interception was just bad luck.

Agreed. 

Allen gets that throw off 9 out of 10 times.

[Scott7975]

22 hours ago, Big Turk said:

All in all, O'Sullivan basically says you have to take the good with the bad because Allen is such a unicorn and can do things that nobody else can do. Said the scramble TD by Allen was crazy because he had 5 defenders converging on him and not a single player even touched him before he waltzed into the endzone.

 

Been saying that.  You don't get the special plays if you want a guy that "just takes what the defense gives you."  You get a normal QB.

[Beck Water]

22 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Been saying that.  You don't get the special plays if you want a guy that "just takes what the defense gives you."  You get a normal QB.

 

Well, I disagree somewhat.

 

Mahomes makes plenty of special plays and is a threat to burn teams with his legs at all times.  But he's sensible about going down or going out of bounds, and he *will* discipline himself to take what the defense gives him.

 

There's a balance to be struck.  You need a QB who will go "be a mustang" sometimes and not just take what the defense gives him.  But there's also a time and place for moving the chains and taking the checkdown, and not becoming overly predictable in extending the play and forcing the ball into tight coverage deep, at the cost of leading the league in interceptions.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, WhoTom said:

 

I suppose that helped a little too. 😉

 

But who knows? He may not have fallen if the LB had been in coverage.

 

 

I think this is one of those plays where Allen was able to leverage the defense's  awareness of his tendencies.

 

Here's the routes in progress.  You're thinking one of the linebackers should pick up Shakir, who in this photo is almost to the 30 yd line on the far hashes.  Diggs is running the crosser, on the 45 yd line hashes. 

 

I don't know what to call the defense (where's @HoofHearted or @Buffalo716 to put me straight?), but it seems to me that the 4 defenders on or about the 30 yd line are some flavor of zone and 100% focused on Davis and Diggs, because 1) typically Shakir and Sherfield are just running clearing routes 2) Allen's tendencies are 100% to go to Diggs if he can, and Davis if he can't.  I think the design of the defense here is to leave Shakir to the single deep safety, but maybe I'm wrong and the safety expects one of the backers to pick him up.  This seems to me the sort of thing teams have been doing to choke off the middle of the field and take it away.  I think the safety expects Shakir to continue upfield and not head for the far sideline and has an "awshit!" moment when he sees Shakir cut.

 

I could be wrong of course.

 

But the safety falls down and goes "boom", and Shakir (on the hashmarks near the 20) is so open that Allen just can't pass him up.

What's actually pretty cool about this play design is when both Davis and Diggs extend their crossing routes vertically, Diggs has both his guys beat AND the guy who is supposed to be containing Cook takes off after Diggs.  So Allen has many targets, and just takes the deepest (and most open)

 

 

Edited October 28, 2023 by Beck Water

[vincec]

1 hour ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Been saying that.  You don't get the special plays if you want a guy that "just takes what the defense gives you."  You get a normal QB.

Or you get Tom Brady.

 

But I agree that Allen is very exciting to watch. He makes a lot of amazing plays that more that compensate for his screw ups.

Edited October 28, 2023 by vincec

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Well, I disagree somewhat.

 

Mahomes makes plenty of special plays and is a threat to burn teams with his legs at all times.  But he's sensible about going down or going out of bounds, and he *will* discipline himself to take what the defense gives him.

 

There's a balance to be struck.  You need a QB who will go "be a mustang" sometimes and not just take what the defense gives him.  But there's also a time and place for moving the chains and taking the checkdown, and not becoming overly predictable in extending the play and forcing the ball into tight coverage deep, at the cost of leading the league in interceptions.

 

Mahomes makes all the same mistakes as Josh and has bad games too.  Not as often but he does.  No QB is perfect.

52 minutes ago, vincec said:

Or you get Tom Brady.

 

But I agree that Allen is very exciting to watch. He makes a lot of amazing plays that more that compensate for his screw ups.

 

But Tom Brady was special because of the things Tom Brady was good at and did.  Josh is special because of the things Josh can do and does.  Josh isn't Tom Brady.  Trying to make him Tom Brady isn't going to work because that isn't what he is special at.

[HoofHearted]

3 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I think this is one of those plays where Allen was able to leverage the defense's  awareness of his tendencies.

 

Here's the routes in progress.  You're thinking one of the linebackers should pick up Shakir, who in this photo is almost to the 30 yd line on the far hashes.  Diggs is running the crosser, on the 45 yd line hashes. 

 

I don't know what to call the defense (where's @HoofHearted or @Buffalo716 to put me straight?), but it seems to me that the 4 defenders on or about the 30 yd line are some flavor of zone and 100% focused on Davis and Diggs, because 1) typically Shakir and Sherfield are just running clearing routes 2) Allen's tendencies are 100% to go to Diggs if he can, and Davis if he can't.  I think the design of the defense here is to leave Shakir to the single deep safety, but maybe I'm wrong and the safety expects one of the backers to pick him up.  This seems to me the sort of thing teams have been doing to choke off the middle of the field and take it away.  I think the safety expects Shakir to continue upfield and not head for the far sideline and has an "awshit!" moment when he sees Shakir cut.

 

I could be wrong of course.

 

But the safety falls down and goes "boom", and Shakir (on the hashmarks near the 20) is so open that Allen just can't pass him up.

What's actually pretty cool about this play design is when both Davis and Diggs extend their crossing routes vertically, Diggs has both his guys beat AND the guy who is supposed to be containing Cook takes off after Diggs.  So Allen has many targets, and just takes the deepest (and most open)

 

 

TB just blew the coverage on this.