Do you think the offense was better yesterday?

[John from Riverside]

Absolutely was
 

They took the foot off the gas

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

Way better. Just took the gas off the Pedel too much the last 25 minutes.

 

I hope to see a lot of 11 personnel/up tempo going forward 

 

So Greg Cosell had a bunch of interesting stuff to say about the impact of going up tempo on the opponent's defense and also about Kincaid and Shakir.

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/one-bills-live

[billsfan89]

The offense was much better. They scored 17 in the first half and then scored a TD to go up 14 in the first drive of the second half. The offense also got a critical first down late in the game to Diggs which effectively forced the Bucs into a hail mary situation. The issue was they stalled after the TD drive. Three straight punts when all they needed was a field goal to take a three-possession lead. The Bills did a great job of getting Davis, Shakir and Kincaid involved while still getting Diggs his spots. They also got Cook decent yardage on the ground with 4.8 ypc. They just needed one more good drive but that blunder to close the 3rd really killed them. 

 

I think this game the offense looked more confident and attacking they just made a blunder at the end of the third that cost them the chance to go up 3 possessions with less time left. Both sides of the ball looked better, not great but significantly improved. 

[Einstein]

55 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Its a bad analogy to cite the primacy effect in this context for obvious reasons, but lets entertain this stupidity: were the primacy effect at play in this comparison, wouldn't our bias be to imprint on the earlier game in New England and discount the new information of last nights performance as less relevant?

 

No. And i'll ignore the insult. Primacy effect is a short-term effect (it is sequential of one event). A prior game would not be relevant.

 

Psychology of Sport and Exercise 8 (2007) 477–489 Study

"Primacy effects were observed regardless of the soccer experience of the participants and the judgement mode (end-of-sequence versus step-by-step).... This finding has a number of implications. First, it suggests that the way in which athletes’ abilities are judged may be biased by the order in which their performances are judged. The results indicate that it may be more beneficial for an athlete to attempt to start strongly than to start poorly, as this will produce a more favourable impression in perceivers."

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19437187/

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

It seems many fans are under the impression that points scored in the first quarter count more than points scored in the fourth quarter.   Over the course of 60 minutes, the offense was not meaningfully better than against the Patriots over the course of 60 minutes. Hence, 25 points vs 24 points.   

But clearly the offense came out much better in this game than last week.  In any case the offense is not the problem for the Bills. The problem is defense and critical situtional coaching.  

Just looking at total points is very flawed also as any team will get more conservative up two scores against a bad offense…the offense was objectively better against the bucs who are coincidentally a better defense than the pats as well.  

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

No. And i'll ignore the insult. Primacy effect is a short-term effect (it is sequential of one event). A prior game would not be relevant.

 

Psychology of Sport and Exercise 8 (2007) 477–489 Study

"Primacy effects were observed regardless of the soccer experience of the participants and the judgement mode (end-of-sequence versus step-by-step).... This finding has a number of implications. First, it suggests that the way in which athletes’ abilities are judged may be biased by the order in which their performances are judged. The results indicate that it may be more beneficial for an athlete to attempt to start strongly than to start poorly, as this will produce a more favourable impression in perceivers."

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19437187/

The primacy effect would apply to the players as well right?

 

Like the defense and the Pats two weeks ago would be like “man these guys ***** suck.”

 

Meanwhile, the defense and the Bucs would be like “man, these guys are killing it.”

 

Right? 

[Einstein]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The primacy effect would apply to the players as well right?

To the observer - yes.

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

To the observer - yes.

They are observing the game too

[Repulsif]

3 hours ago, Process said:

At any point yesterday did you feel like we were going to lose that game? We were in control.

honestly, after the Bucs 2 point conversion, I felt the "here we go again last second TD ala Murray"

didn't you ?

the Bills were in control a major part of the game, until the moment they "wanted" to be in control, slowing drives, punting in a not so bad situation, and that's exactly what they failed and why it was so close at the end

= don't force yourself to try to keep in control things you can't, it's a recipe for a failure, and it was close

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, Repulsif said:

honestly, after the Bucs 2 point conversion, I felt the "here we go again last second TD ala Murray"

didn't you ?

the Bills were in control a major part of the game, until the moment they "wanted" to be in control, slowing drives, punting in a not so bad situation, and that's exactly what they failed and why it was so close at the end

= don't force yourself to try to keep in control things you can't, it's a recipe for a failure, and it was close

That's good life advice. And trying to be in control resulted in overly cautious, conservative choices.

[716to540]

Yes. Yes I do

 

[90sBills]

It was a lot better than it has been since the Miami game. They need to beat Cincy next week to show they can compete with the big boys this season. 

[nedboy7]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

It’s difficult to do, because he is a bad pass blocker. When the opponent brings more rushers, the RB has to stay in and protect. He struggles.

is that more of an issue of instinct, knowledge or desire? 

[Jauronimo]

19 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

No. And i'll ignore the insult. Primacy effect is a short-term effect (it is sequential of one event). A prior game would not be relevant.

 

Psychology of Sport and Exercise 8 (2007) 477–489 Study

"Primacy effects were observed regardless of the soccer experience of the participants and the judgement mode (end-of-sequence versus step-by-step).... This finding has a number of implications. First, it suggests that the way in which athletes’ abilities are judged may be biased by the order in which their performances are judged. The results indicate that it may be more beneficial for an athlete to attempt to start strongly than to start poorly, as this will produce a more favourable impression in perceivers."

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19437187/

So in other words, the primacy effect has no impact on assessing the offense in week 7 vs. week 8 by your own admission.  Which was my point.

 

Digging deep into the ultimate frisbee studies again I see. 

 

Quote

Abstract

We examined the influence of order effects on assessments of sporting ability. Club-standard ultimate frisbee players (n = 240) viewed footage of a target player performing a series of ultimate frisbee skills. Participants viewed either a declining (successful to unsuccessful) pattern of performance or an ascending (unsuccessful to successful) pattern. Ratings were made on three descriptors of ultimate frisbee ability. One group of participants made ratings at the end of the sequence of clips, one group updated their ratings after each clip in a step-by-step manner, and one group used an extended step-by-step processing strategy. Finally, a fourth group made end-of-sequence ratings, but a delay condition was used to control for the time taken to make step-by-step ratings. Analyses of covariance (order vs. judgement condition) were conducted on the ratings. Results revealed primacy effects for the ratings of the target player in the end-of-sequence and delay conditions, and in the first step-by-step condition, but no order effects in the second step-by-step condition. Findings indicate order effects can be reduced by using a more thorough step-by-step processing strategy.

 

 

[Mikie2times]

I mean, we likely lose that game against an average team. Our offense is largely healthy and not dominating enough to make up for our depleted defense which is looking more bottom of the league. I would hope they would have been dominating enough to do so against that poor of a team. I feel like this win is fools gold. It's says a lot when you think you played really well and very well could have lost. 

Edited October 28, 2023 by Mikie2times

[HappyDays]

The offense we ran last night is probably our best shot at winning games given the current personnel, but it is still way too reliant on perfect execution on long drives and at least a couple Superman plays from Allen. We have completely lost our deep passing offense. Diggs and Davis are not YAC specialists so quick passes to them is good for getting into manageable down distances, but as we saw last night any little miscue or failure in execution leads to a stalled drive.

 

Then again other than Miami and maybe Philadelphia every offense is struggling with deep passing right now, so this might just be the new world in the NFL. And if that's the case they have to make getting a true elite YAC specialist a priority. A lot of those RPO quick passes to Davis could have gone to the house if thrown to an explosive player.

[Einstein]

12 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

is that more of an issue of instinct, knowledge or desire? 

 

Gosh, I honestly don’t know.

[Chaos]

48 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Just looking at total points is very flawed also as any team will get more conservative up two scores against a bad offense…the offense was objectively better against the bucs who are coincidentally a better defense than the pats as well.  

I don't think you know what objectively means. 

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

It wasn’t meaningfully better except for the career days for like 3 receivers, way more yards per play, way more yards per pass, way better on third down, more first downs. 
 

Got it.

It was not that bad against the Pats =25 points. (even with Murray and Bass leaving points on the field)  Q4 against the Pats was 10x better than Q4 against the Bucs.  I did not say the offense wasn't good in either game. They ended up with similar results, because the combined combination of coaching and execution over the course of 60 minutes totalled the same basic outcome.  It is clear you don't 'got it'

 

Edited October 28, 2023 by Chaos

[HappyDays]

You could make an argument that the only difference between last week and this week is that when we punted the ball in a TD to win situation, we did it with 30 seconds on the clock instead of 2 minutes on the clock. Because I have zero faith our defense would have stopped the Bucs on that drive if they had more time to go down the field.

 

Honestly the game script was pretty similar to last week, just inverted. Our offense still stalled out for multiple drives in a row. Allen magic was the primary reason for our TD drives. The defense choked repeatedly at the end. In this game the clock saved us more than anything.

 

If only Knox had been put on IR one week sooner. Kincaid would have made that 4th down catch and we likely would have won. So far as actual offensive improvements that is a big one, and I will also throw in Shakir's strong performance with the caveat that I'd like to see it more than once before declaring it a real trend.

[sven233]

Anyone watching and even halfway knows what they are seeing will know that the offense was better yesterday than it has been the last few weeks.  It was efficient and, for the most part, had Tampa on their heels all night until the 4th quarter where, for some reason, we decided we had enough points and a big enough lead to finish. 

 

That said, for as improved as it was, we probably should have put up close to 40.  Dorsey getting stupid at the goal line.  Allen just missing Davis on a deep post that may have gone for a TD.  Add that to the lack of aggressiveness we showed later in the game and it's easy to see where, as good as we were, we should have been even better. 

 

I think they finally realize, though, that using an up tempi pace, 11 personnel and featuring guys like Kincaid and Shakir, all while throwing in some well timed Allen runs is the blueprint they need to use going forward.  I am a firm believer in dictating to the defense what you want to do and not trying seeing what the defense is going to do an adjusting.  Of course there is some of that, but pushing the issue with tempo and letting Allen loose opens the field up so much and makes things so much easier for everyone on offense.  My biggest thing is that I do not trust the coaching staff to keep building on it.  I mean, last week, we all thought that Dorsey learned his lesson about going to shotgun with inches to go.....but nope, there it was again with inches to go for a TD and Dorsey actively decided to make sure we didn't score.  So, how can we trust this staff even with the most obvious of things?  Guess we'll see.