Do you think the offense was better yesterday?

[Einstein]

I made the argument last week that the offense played 'fine'. Points are points whether they are scored in the first half or final minutes. The offense scored 25 and left the field with the lead and under two minutes to play. So I figured lets compare the two.

Week 7 vs Patriots
Points: 25

Offensive EPA/a: .16
First downs: 24

Punts: 1

 

Week 8 vs Bucs

Points: 24

Offensive EPA/a: .09

First downs: 25

Punts: 4

This weeks offense did have 88 more yards, and also involved more receiving options, though this effort resulted in 1 less point, a lower EPA/a and more punts than last week. 

We did have a large lead this week, which can contribute to taking the foot off the pedal. However, I didn't get the sense we were doing that until the very last drive. We were running 11 personnel with Josh in shotgun up until the second to last drive.

PS, our no-huddle work was magnificent:
 

 

 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Yes they were more diverse and more energetic. Josh especially seemed alive as did the others who were more involved. McD stifled it with his fourth down decisions and allowed TB to stay in the game.

Edited October 27, 2023 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, Process said:

If the Bills needed to score 38 yesterday they would have. 

You feel like the offense was purposefully not scoring the last quarter and a half?

The staff wanted to practice punting? 

[Roundybout]

Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

 

The offense last night, at least through 3 quarters, finally looked like the offenses of 2020-2022

[BillsFan130]

Way better. Just took the gas off the Pedel too much the last 25 minutes.

 

I hope to see a lot of 11 personnel/up tempo going forward 

[jletha]

The offense played much better, it was obvious to anyone that watched. Im a big proponent of EPA/play but it doesnt encapsulate the EPA that was generated in-structure vs out of structure and how the offense looked overall. Everything against NE felt hard. The entire offense was Josh beating a rushing, rolling right and looking for someone downfield. Yesterday was executed much more in structure. Yes the second half wasnt great, drives stalled. But the offense played better than they had in the last three weeks.

 

Now... I do think the offense played better against NE than people want to admit. So while they played better it may not be *that* much better.

Edited October 27, 2023 by jletha

[The Wiz]

They also had a turn over on downs at the 1 yard line because of stupid play calling two plays in a row and 4 punts from mid field because Tampa did very little to worry about them on defense (and they would have gone for it on 2 of the 4 4th downs if they were behind).

 

EPA is meh.  Still how I feel about DVOA.  They looked in control last night when they wanted to be.  They looked like they struggled to move the ball on sunday regardless of how many points they scored.

Edited October 27, 2023 by The Wiz

[Big Turk]

I think the difference is when you are in control of the game, you have less need for trying to generate big plays later in the game so you are unlikely to try for them as much since the risk/reward ratio is far higher in favor of risk.  This obviously would lead to a lower EPA/play than when you are behind and constantly trying to throw and maybe taking some chances downfield.  I think the better metric would be comparing 1st half EPA/play versus 2nd half EPA/play over the past 3 games versus last night.  The Bills offense being on fire in the 2nd half of those games and taking more risks since they had no choice and needed points fast, helped boost that number a little bit artificially, IMO.

 

IMO, if the Bills wanted to score more points, they easily could have taken a riskier approach and done so. Based on the flow of the game, it was not needed.

Edited October 27, 2023 by Big Turk

[Franco_92]

3 minutes ago, Process said:

No better example of EPA being useless than right here. 

 

If the Bills needed to score 38 yesterday they would have. 

 

Yes it was better, significantly so. 

speaking in absolutes about any stat is as bad one way (the stat is perfect, which nobody says) as it is the other way (the stat is useless, which a lot of people say)

 

It's not a useless stat, but like any stat its predictive power becomes much stronger as you increase sample size 

[Logic]

Sometimes the feel of the game can be seen or sensed better with the eye than with stats or analytics.

Whereas last week, and in the weeks that preceded it, it felt like a struggle for the Bills to move the ball until deep into the third quarter, this week, it did not. Whereas the past few weeks, they lacked rhythm and identity, last night they did not.

Josh Allen also specifically looked better. More comfortable, more decisive, and had the quickest time-to-throw of his entire career. He was fully in command. I don't think many would say that about the past few weeks.

Because of the offense taking their foot off the pedal to some degree, switching to more of a ball control, bleed the clock mode, and taking a bit of air out of the football, the metrics wound up being what they wound up being. But the eye test and the gut feel watching last night's game both tell me that the offense was significantly better, more comfortable, more effective, in a better rhythm, and that I'd bet the players would all say the same thing.

[Process]

1 minute ago, Einstein said:

You feel like the offense was purposefully not scoring the last quarter and a half?

The staff wanted to practice punting? 

McDermott is one of the most aggressive coaches in the NFL on 4th down historically. We punted 4 times from midfield. We would have went for it if our defense wasn't completely shutting down the TB offense. 

 

It took an unbelievably unlucky series of events just for the Bucs to have a shot at a hail Mary. 

 

At any point yesterday did you feel like we were going to lose that game? We were in control.

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, Logic said:

Sometimes the feel of the game can be seen or sensed better with the eye than with stats or analytics.

Whereas last week, and in the weeks that preceded it, it felt like a struggle for the Bills to move the ball until deep into the third quarter, this week, it did not. Whereas the past few weeks, they lacked rhythm and identity, last night they did not.

Josh Allen also specifically looked better. More comfortable, more decisive, and had the quickest time-to-throw of his entire career. He was fully in command. I don't think many would say that about the past few weeks.

Because of the offense taking their foot off the pedal to some degree, switching to more of a ball control, bleed the clock mode, and taking a bit of air out of the football, the metrics wound up being what they wound up being. But the eye test and the gut feel watching last night's game both tell me that the offense was significantly better, more comfortable, more effective, in a better rhythm, and that I'd bet the players would all say the same thing.

 

We also saw how that helped the defense as well as they never trailed in the game and weren't chasing things the whole game.

[Gregg]

Yes, it was better. They got off to a fast start and the Bills were able to play the game with the lead except for the brief time it was 10-10. 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

The tempo really works for them. This will be the norm going forward.

[Einstein]

6 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

I think the difference is when you are in control of the game, you have less need for trying to generate big plays later in the game so you are unlikely to try for them as much since the risk/reward ratio is far higher in favor of risk. 

This was the first thing I thought of. But if you look at the tape, they were in attack mode until the very last drive. They were running 10 and 11-Personnel throughout. 

Aaron Quinn attacked the "foot off the gas" theory in a long Twitter thread today.
 

 

Edited October 27, 2023 by Einstein

[somnus00]

Hard to say for me. The first 35 minutes, the Bills looked like the team that played against the Dolphins. The last 25 minutes, they looked like the team that played Jags, Giants, and Pats.

 

Gabe was used in different ways. Shakir and Kincaid are finally getting more touches. Josh was quick and decisive (with strategic runs and slides thrown in). So there certainly were some improvements in the offense's play which leaves me optimistic, but cautiously so.

[RobbRiddick]

They didn't look like they were playing in mud this week. Much more fluid and looks like they were in rhythm. Liked the fact that Josh spread the ball around. Seeing Kincaid playing well again was great, and also great to see Shakir having a good game. Josh seemed to enjoy having that early designed run. It's almost like he doesn't feel quite himself unless he gets to unleash his legs early. I've never been a fan of the designed runs but I'm happy for him to scramble and scramble every time he sees a wide running lane develop, so long as he slides/goes out of bounds. Must be so demoralizing for the defense to see him continually picking up big chunks of 'easy' yards on them

[Process]

7 minutes ago, Franco_92 said:

speaking in absolutes about any stat is as bad one way (the stat is perfect, which nobody says) as it is the other way (the stat is useless, which a lot of people say)

 

It's not a useless stat, but like any stat its predictive power becomes much stronger as you increase sample size 

Useless is too strong of a word, I agree

[Franco_92]

4 minutes ago, Process said:

At any point yesterday did you feel like we were going to lose that game? We were in control.

I said this earlier, but there was not one single play during the course of the game that you could convince me to say "I wish the situation were reversed and we were in the Buccs' shoes." 

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

This was the first thing I thought of. But if you look at the tape, they were in attack mode until the very last drive. They were running 11-Personnel throughout. 

Aaron Quinn attacked the "foot off the gas" theory in a long Twitter thread today.
 

 

 

The defense also is likely to be playing them differently with a lead...perhaps they spend more time trying to make sure the Bills don't get it all back on one play and play softer coverage.  

 

There are a myriad of differences that go into it.  If I had to choose, I would take last night's offense over any of the last 3 weeks, IMO.