Why do the Bills always defer when they win the coin toss?

[Lost]

I'm sick of hearing crap about having the opportunity to double dip at half.  The Raiders game aside,  the Bills have shown to be pretty abysmal at playing from behind and if I remember from last year, the Bills had an extremely high scoring percentage on first possession drives.   Why not just always receive the Ball, get that early lead and make the other team play catch up.   Once the Bills get down, they seem to get in their own heads and lose all their juice.   This is just one of the many little annoyances I've had about this season so far.  

[Low Positive]

3 minutes ago, Lost said:

I'm sick of hearing crap about having the opportunity to double dip at half.  The Raiders game aside,  the Bills have shown to be pretty abysmal at playing from behind and if I remember from last year, the Bills had an extremely high scoring percentage on first possession drives.   Why not just always receive the Ball, get that early lead and make the other team play catch up.   Once the Bills get down, they seem to get in their own heads and lose all their juice.   This is just one of the many little annoyances I've had about this season so far.  

Belichick started  this. But some teams do take the ball. The Bengals always do. They want to impose their will from the opening kick. And because most teams defer, Cincinnati almost always starts with the ball.

[The Jokeman]

1 minute ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

It's a defensive coach thing, McDermott. They like the ball kicked deep in the opponents territory rather than if the O goes 3 and out the other team gets it nearer midfield.

I'm sure the thought of double dipping at the end of the first half and starting the second half with TDs is appealing too. 

[Lost]

1 minute ago, FrenchConnection said:

Belichick started  this. But some teams do take the ball. The Bengals always do. They want to impose their will from the opening kick. And because most teams defer, Cincinnati almost always starts with the ball.

 

Both the Bengals games from last season stick out to me for this reason.   The Bills gave the ball to them to start both games and they just shredded their way right down the field for opening TDs.  The Bills immediately looked deflated in both instances and never recovered.  

[BillsFan130]

I always prefer deferring personally.

 

Get a chance to double dip from end of the half/start of the 2nd half.

Its not just a MCD thing- I don’t know the exact stat, but I think it’s like 90-95 percent of the time coaches defer

[Franco_92]

I'm pretty sure you can prove mathematically deferring is better. But I don't have the proof. 

 

I like getting the ball at the half when both teams have run through their scripts and have a good idea what the other team is doing. 

[SoCal Deek]

With all of the analytics that dominate sports these days it seems like this would be an easy thing to study. How many times have the Bills actually double dipped after having kicked off to start the game, versus not? 

[zow2]

Just to point to another games, the Ravens won the toss vs Detroit and TOOK the ball.  They wanted to set a tone and rammed it in for a 7 play drive opening TD.

[Dancing Fool]

3 minutes ago, Franco_92 said:

I'm pretty sure you can prove mathematically deferring is better. But I don't have the proof. 

 

I like getting the ball at the half when both teams have run through their scripts and have a good idea what the other team is doing. 

I'm sure one may be able to prove that it has been more successful in a historical sense. This does not mathematically prove that it is better. 

 

Often in games of strategy choosing "weaker" moves can be advantageous, unless you are playing what is essentially a "solved" game with no opportunity for randomness. Football is not that game. 

[Simon]

The double dip opportunity is small potatoes compared to being able to potentially have an extra possession in the second half, and the field position angle is irrelevant.

Getting that extra offensive possession in the 3rd/4th qrtr when games are decided is why you do it.

[Franco_92]

1 minute ago, Dancing Fool said:

I'm sure one may be able to prove that it has been more successful in a historical sense. This does not mathematically prove that it is better. 

 

Often in games of strategy choosing "weaker" moves can be advantageous, unless you are playing what is essentially a "solved" game with no opportunity for randomness. Football is not that game. 

Prove might not be the best word but by using it I mean I think there is a stronger case to be made than "teams who choose X win Y% of the time "

 

I just don't remember how the argument goes. 

[Big Turk]

Almost every team does. Analytically it's the "correct" choice and helps to potentially maximize possessions.

[Boatdrinks]

They’ve done this for years now. Not a big deal and certainly not the source of their problems right now. You’ve only got two choices and they prefer one over the other. 

[zow2]

The absolute killer is when you defer, kickoff,  and the other team converts several 3rd downs and goes on a long drive.  I hate when that happens in home games especially.  By the time you get the ball back, there's 6:30 left in the first Qtr or something.  Being down 7-0 or 3-0 is less than ideal in those situations.  This Bills defense right now struggles on 3rd downs.

[Billsflyer12]

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/opening-kickoff-receive-or-defer/
 

A couple years old but gives the basics of the decision.  It’s advantageous but at the very slimiest of margins.

[Simon]

3 minutes ago, zow2 said:

The absolute killer is when you defer, kickoff,  and the other team converts several 3rd downs and goes on a long drive.  I hate when that happens in home games especially.  By the time you get the ball back, there's 6:30 left in the first Qtr or something.

 

I don't really think that's too much of a killer when there is still 55:00 of game left.

[nucci]

51 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

Belichick started  this. But some teams do take the ball. The Bengals always do. They want to impose their will from the opening kick. And because most teams defer, Cincinnati almost always starts with the ball.

impose their will? It's a football game

[NewEra]

[boater]

1 hour ago, Lost said:

I'm sick of hearing crap about having the opportunity to double dip at half.

Double-dipping is why. Most of the replies here show that.

 

By stating you're sick of it, you expected a different answer?

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Lost said:

I'm sick of hearing crap about having the opportunity to double dip at half.  The Raiders game aside,  the Bills have shown to be pretty abysmal at playing from behind and if I remember from last year, the Bills had an extremely high scoring percentage on first possession drives.   Why not just always receive the Ball, get that early lead and make the other team play catch up.   Once the Bills get down, they seem to get in their own heads and lose all their juice.   This is just one of the many little annoyances I've had about this season so far.  

 

It's irrelevant what you think, it still is the smart play analytically and why virtually every team in the NFL does it.

Edited October 25, 2023 by Big Turk