Playoff Chances Across The NFL 7 Weeks In

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As I have been doing every few weeks I take a step back to see realistically where everything looks to shake out. As always criticize, laugh, tell me to drink hot sauce because you disagree, do what you must:

 

SB or Bust It Feels

KC - The offense is good but this is their best defense in the Mahomes era and that is terrifying

PHI - Defense is good and Byard is a great addition. Offense still a little off but it feels like a collision course between them and SF for the NFC

SF - Back to back losses as the injuries mount and Purdy looks a little mortal. Still their ceiling is incredibly high and their goal is plain and obvious for this year.

 

See You In January... But How Real Are You

BAL - Ravens on offense look revitalized with their new OC, but they do have a bad loss in PIT. Feels like this might be Lamar's year to show what he has in the post-season and prove his point.

DET - They clearly are a really good team... but they got taken to task by Baltimore and when its crunch time how much do you really trust Goff?

JAX - They have won the games they should and the BUF win is nice as they look to be rounding to form. SF/CIN/BAL are coming with a real chance to show where they stack against some more quality teams.

MIA - Certainly an explosive offense and a true threat in the AFC... BUT the book is out on Tua and this offense as both losses when he had to move around due to pressure the offense couldn't go at the same rate. Not many teams have PHI/BUF's level of d-line play but even NE made life uncomfortable for Tua. They need to prove it against a bigger foe before they are at KC/PHI level

SEA - 4-2 and the defense looks like it is finding its way while the offense is a little shaky compared to last year. I would expect them in the post season but can Geno make more plays to really go toe to toe with SF or PHI? They play both this year so we will find out.

 

Causing Their Fanbases to Reevaluate Existence. Seriously Can Any of Them Get It Together Because They Have Contender Abilities. Playoffs 70/30

BUF - Allen is having his best passing year across most statistics... yet he seems leashed and not the same guy. The defense has injuries the limit the potential of what they can do, but realistically if the offense plays at the high levels at has from 2020-22 they potentially can hang with anyone thanks to 17. How you feel about that is up to you.

CIN - A lot has been made about their comeback to .500, but right now the defense is driving this team and Burrow still doesn't look himself. He has just one 300 yard game and they have struggled to move the ball consistently. Like Buffalo the potential is their for the offense to get it going and their fine and the defense is good.. but they also have put themselves far back in division.

DAL - One week they look like gods the next they look like goons. The schedule is incredibly hard after the break with PHI 2x, at BUF, MIA, DET, and SEA all to go and WSH who plays tough at times. Like the other two above they could go on a run and be 12-5 at seasons end, be 10-7 and make it in, or even be 8-9 and leave you wondering why.

 

Can Play Themselves In or Out of a Playoff Spot

LAR - Crappy outcome as the refs gave the game to PIT, but the offense looks better and the defense is growing. They have games later vs NYG/NOLA/ARZ/WSH so the potential is there is they can win all of those that a 9-8 record could get them in.

MIN - They have played themselves back into the race at 3-4 and have at GB at ATL NOLA at DEN CHI and at LV

NYJ - Zach Wilson has maybe evolved from trash to at least competent game manager which gives them a shot as long as the defense plays well and they can run the ball. Still they have a bunch of road games coming so pressure falls squarely on the defense to keep them alive.

PIT - Honestly I think this is the worst 4-2 team in football, but they have two nice wins so far over CLE/BAL. The schedule gets much tougher starting this week as they have JAX/CLE/CIN/CIN/SEA/BAL all to go and three of their last four are on the road. Can the defense keep playing at a high level to limit that limited offense?

 

 

Truthfully Probably Too Flawed for the Playoffs But...

 

CLE - The defense while not so great against IND is stout and they are still running the ball well. The QB question and schedule feels like it will cap them to 9-8 at best.

HOU - This is probably the true darkhorse playoff team of the AFC. Stroud looks quite good despite the roster not fully being built yet and they finish the year at TEN, CLE, TEN, at IND while having a three game home stretch in November of ARZ/JAX/DEN. If they can be 7-6 entering the final four this might be your 7th seed in the AFC.

LAC - After hosting CHI on SNF (blah) their schedule offers no relief and if you believed Herbert eats stats but isn't as good as the numbers say this year is proving it. To get to even 10-7 they need to go 8-3 the rest of way which seems really hard to buy at this point after years of evidence saying otherwise.

LV (Raiders) - They probably just lost their playoff hopes Sunday against CHI, but their a really weird team that still feels Dick Jauron in the hunt style come December (aka 5-7 but in the hunt)

WSH - The NFC is bad enough and WSH has enough talent still to hang around. Their schedule does them no favors and Howell doesn't look the part.

 

I Hate This Division.. They Are Taking Up A Playoff Spot

ATL - Desmond Ridder, you really had to go that direction when you literally could've had Lamar or Rodgers or traded up etc.. Seeing talented teams waste a year because of hubris is maddening.

NOLA - Raiders 2.0 down South. What a surprise as this looks like Carr we saw before and Dennis Allen is a crappy coach. Maybe they get a little hot and win enough to go 9-8 before they get beat.

TB - I still think TB wins the division as when Baker is good that offense can come alive and the defense is feisty. After Buffalo they only have SF/JAX which pose real issue with Carolina twice still and NOLA at home week 17 with some other weaker opponents. Do you job and you get another crown TB.

 

Drafting Away

ARZ - They play hard and Murray is coming back so maybe they can steal a few more games. More importantly the coaching staff is seeing who is and isn't part of the future as they sit happily with two 1st round picks in 24'.

CHI - Fields has at least shown some flashes to maybe make you think build more over the offseason but with his injury it limits anymore learning. If Atlanta would give a 2nd or 3rd for Fields it almost feels worth so you can grab a young QB with a fresh rookie contract to build worth vs paying Fields 30 mil plus and still not know.

DEN - They are in a really awkward and tough spot. Payton has not been anything special as a coach, Russ is being paid to cook 19 pts a game, and they look more ready for a reset then a build forward.. but Payton can't be fired and Russ has to play out on his contract through at least 24 before cap relief. Yikes.

GB - After starting decent the first three weeks Love has comeback to earth these last three. This wasn't going to be a playoff year, but how he goes the rest of the way will determine a lot on what GB does this offseason.

IND - This team was so much fun with Richardson and plays really hard. They will finish 5-12 and then draft a top WR which should scare the AFC at the talent that may go there.

NE - Nice win Sunday to show some signs of life, but 5 losses caps their ability to really make any run as the schedule still is daunting throughout. Biggest question is if Mac Jones can show more good like he did Sunday.

NYG - Tyrod Taylor could win them enough games that instead of being able to draft a QB in the top 5 they have to add skill guys instead. Not the worst problem, but really what are they playing for long term.

TEN - Feels like they accepted reality 6 months to late, but regardless the rebuild looks to be getting started. Big question is when Hopkins goes (quietly on pace for over 1000 yards) and if a player like Simmons would be available for anyone.

 

We Made A Very Bad Decision

CAR - Just to recap they traded a top WR, last years 1st and this years 1st for Bryce Young who has been decidedly the worst of this years rookie class as Richardson showed great flashes and Stroud looks quite good. Plenty of time for Young to turn it around and year 1 for any rookie does not determine the future either way, but they could've had DJ Moore AND a 1st this year with Richardson or potentially Stroud which would've felt a lot better.