Bills vs Tampa Bay. On to Week 8

[Low Positive]

7 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

 

From memory, the 2021 game felt like it was "all or nothing" as well. A miserable first half performance and the season felt over. Even though the game ended in defeat, the second half performance seemed to kickstart something which carried the Bills through to 13 seconds.

 

It's a week to week league, and I wouldn't be surprised by any result.

They had a beautifully soft schedule to close out the year. Now, they don't.

[schoolhouserock]

Looking forward to watching the Bills on the Prime Vision feed.

[UKBillFan]

3 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

They had a beautifully soft schedule to close out the year. Now, they don't.

 

Think they have to win three of the next four to take them to 7-4. The Bengals can be as bad as the Bills at their worst so might get lucky at Paycor, but have that as a defeat.

Accept defeats at the Eagles and Chiefs (7-6), win the next three then lose at Miami takes the Bills to 10-7. May be enough for a wilcard spot.

But if the Jets can beat the Eagles and the Pats can beat the Bills, then maybe one or more surpise result will go in the Bills favour.

 

[The Wiz]

52 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

2nd ranked offense in what and according to whom?

It's because of the curb stomping they gave out weeks 2-4 averaging 41 PPG.

[Low Positive]

6 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

It's because of the curb stomping they gave out weeks 2-4 averaging 41 PPG.

What gets me is that it's still the same dudes. What happened?

[The Wiz]

1 minute ago, FrenchConnection said:

What gets me is that it's still the same dudes. What happened?

They talked about it this morning on WGR and attributed it to net neutral pass/run plays.

 

Basically, every time the team is in 2nd and less than 5, they run the ball.  And I'm being figurative with every time but it was something like 90% of the time they ran the ball on 2nd and less than 5.

 

This is the type of thing that I feel like has been hurting Allen because he doesn't get another chance because now it's 3rd down and he's potentially throwing the ball for the first time in that set of downs. 

 

I remember back in 2020 or 2021 where there was an article about the bills offense that basically said "the best way to not get stopped on 3rd down is don't go to 3rd down" because the offense was throwing so much that they were getting a new set of downs on either 1st or 2nd down and not even getting to 3rd.  

 

The analytics of the pats games, they ran the ball on every 2nd and less than 5 (i believe it was 7/7 or 8/8 times) so they knew it was coming every time.

 

 

 

I'm not big into the different analytics stuff that's involved in sports but that's something that I did notice over the past few games was the tendency to run on 2nd and short yardage plays.  Those stats kind of confirm that.

[QCity]

22 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

It's because of the curb stomping they gave out weeks 2-4 averaging 41 PPG.

 

The meme says 2nd ranked offense weeks 5-7 which is hysterically delusional even by homer standards.

[Big Turk]

Git 'Er Done Beane!

 

 

 

[Low Positive]

7 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

They talked about it this morning on WGR and attributed it to net neutral pass/run plays.

 

Basically, every time the team is in 2nd and less than 5, they run the ball.  And I'm being figurative with every time but it was something like 90% of the time they ran the ball on 2nd and less than 5.

 

This is the type of thing that I feel like has been hurting Allen because he doesn't get another chance because now it's 3rd down and he's potentially throwing the ball for the first time in that set of downs. 

 

I remember back in 2020 or 2021 where there was an article about the bills offense that basically said "the best way to not get stopped on 3rd down is don't go to 3rd down" because the offense was throwing so much that they were getting a new set of downs on either 1st or 2nd down and not even getting to 3rd.  

 

The analytics of the pats games, they ran the ball on every 2nd and less than 5 (i believe it was 7/7 or 8/8 times) so they knew it was coming every time.

 

 

 

I'm not big into the different analytics stuff that's involved in sports but that's something that I did notice over the past few games was the tendency to run on 2nd and short yardage plays.  Those stats kind of confirm that.

This has to be coming from McDermott. Complementary football and balance. Last year, Dorsey was all deep shots, all the time. Now all he talks about is balance.

[fergie's ire]

4 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

 

 

I remember back in 2020 or 2021 where there was an article about the bills offense that basically said "the best way to not get stopped on 3rd down is don't go to 3rd down" because the offense was throwing so much that they were getting a new set of downs on either 1st or 2nd down and not even getting to 3rd.  

 

It may have been the same article but I also remember reading that it was a premise of the Daboll offense that you try to get over ten yards in two plays so that you get three chances to make two.  In other words, you run routes to get six yards (or more) so if you hit on two of them you get the first down even if you miss on one play you still get the first down.  So, you may go to third down if, say, second down is an incompletion.  It's a different mindset than the old "three yards and a cloud of dust" which is the idea that you can get three and a half yards on each and every play and move down the field.

[Big Turk]

11 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

They talked about it this morning on WGR and attributed it to net neutral pass/run plays.

 

Basically, every time the team is in 2nd and less than 5, they run the ball.  And I'm being figurative with every time but it was something like 90% of the time they ran the ball on 2nd and less than 5.

 

This is the type of thing that I feel like has been hurting Allen because he doesn't get another chance because now it's 3rd down and he's potentially throwing the ball for the first time in that set of downs. 

 

I remember back in 2020 or 2021 where there was an article about the bills offense that basically said "the best way to not get stopped on 3rd down is don't go to 3rd down" because the offense was throwing so much that they were getting a new set of downs on either 1st or 2nd down and not even getting to 3rd.  

 

The analytics of the pats games, they ran the ball on every 2nd and less than 5 (i believe it was 7/7 or 8/8 times) so they knew it was coming every time.

 

 

 

I'm not big into the different analytics stuff that's involved in sports but that's something that I did notice over the past few games was the tendency to run on 2nd and short yardage plays.  Those stats kind of confirm that.

 

That has to be McD influence trying to be "ball control".  

[The Wiz]

3 minutes ago, fergie's ire said:

It may have been the same article but I also remember reading that it was a premise of the Daboll offense that you try to get over ten yards in two plays so that you get three chances to make two.  In other words, you run routes to get six yards (or more) so if you hit on two of them you get the first down even if you miss on one play you still get the first down.  So, you may go to third down if, say, second down is an incompletion.  It's a different mindset than the old "three yards and a cloud of dust" which is the idea that you can get three and a half yards on each and every play and move down the field.

That was from the same article.  Now I need to go find it but I remember that now that you said it.

 

And the theory is sound other than the fact that Josh doesn't run anymore.

 

I'd rather give him 3 chances to get 10 yards than give him 2 chances and tell him he can't take off.  Makes no sense.

Edited October 24, 2023 by The Wiz

[The Wiz]

5 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

This has to be coming from McDermott. Complementary football and balance. Last year, Dorsey was all deep shots, all the time. Now all he talks about is balance.

 

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

That has to be McD influence trying to be "ball control".  

If McD is telling Dorsey that he needs to run the ball X amount of times per game then he's definitely overstepping and needs to let the offense play their game.

 

What I keep thinking about is the commitment to the 12 personnel and how Dorsey ran it as a QB in college.  We didn't have the horses in past to run it but now that we have Knox and Kincaid (had Knox) it became more of a reason to run the ball as well since they had more players inline.

 

I think the best case with Knox being out is less 12 personnel and more 11 with Kincaid in a true flex role but don't know what they will do with the slot (I'm guessing Sherfield since he is a better blocker than Harty and Shakir doesn't have the speed to match the other two).

[Boatdrinks]

13 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Git 'Er Done Beane!

 

 

 

This would be a good move for the D. 

[Low Positive]

1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said:

This would be a good move for the D. 

Eli has been on like every team in the league.

[Boatdrinks]

18 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

This has to be coming from McDermott. Complementary football and balance. Last year, Dorsey was all deep shots, all the time. Now all he talks about is balance.

It probably is. I also feel it’s an outdated concept. I much prefer the Daboll philosophy: it just seemed like he didn’t care much if they ever ran the ball. He probably just mixed in some runs to keep McD happy. 

[Breakout Squad]

1 hour ago, UKBillFan said:

 

Think they have to win three of the next four to take them to 7-4. The Bengals can be as bad as the Bills at their worst so might get lucky at Paycor, but have that as a defeat.

Accept defeats at the Eagles and Chiefs (7-6), win the next three then lose at Miami takes the Bills to 10-7. May be enough for a wilcard spot.

But if the Jets can beat the Eagles and the Pats can beat the Bills, then maybe one or more surpise result will go in the Bills favour.

 

I’m still having a hard time thinking we’ll miss the playoffs. It will get real for me if we lose Thursday. 

[RobbRiddick]

1 hour ago, UKBillFan said:

 

Think they have to win three of the next four to take them to 7-4. The Bengals can be as bad as the Bills at their worst so might get lucky at Paycor, but have that as a defeat.

Accept defeats at the Eagles and Chiefs (7-6), win the next three then lose at Miami takes the Bills to 10-7. May be enough for a wilcard spot.

But if the Jets can beat the Eagles and the Pats can beat the Bills, then maybe one or more surpise result will go in the Bills favour.

 

I had us at 9-8 before the season and missing the playoffs, with the schedule as tough as it is I think that's very likely, but the Bills often play well against good/great teams so who knows, they may surprise us. If they lose to the Bucs then it will take the mother of all team meetings to get them back on track

[Breakout Squad]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

2nd ranked offense in what and according to whom?

Science!!!!

[transplantbillsfan]

35 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Git 'Er Done Beane!

 

 

 

 

Bring him back!!!