12 Personnel

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

11 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

Its hardly 12 personnel.    Most of the time Kincaid is lining up off the line anyways.   The issue isn't the formation.  Arguably you have your 4 best pass receivers on the field anyways.   What would help is if Dawson Knox remembered how to catch a football.

Kincaid was the only silver lining on this one…offense is gonna have to go nuclear to turn this season around 

[balln]

6 minutes ago, boyst said:

100% agree

 

Josh took a few plays to find comfort and make a good read to place the ball well. He's getting too much pressure and not being given much. It happened on the play to Morris for the TD. Josh just placed it perfectly. 

 

He is not getting and maybe not giving himself enough time. Especially when we have Davis who needs to run the route deep and Diggs when on the outside needs his route to be crisp to lose a defender in 3 second. 

The advanced stats showed he had the most time to throw per pass this season 

[Mikie2times]

I was going to start a thread with this post, but it overlaps with several. I will just post it in this thread. 

 

 

If Josh has 3 plays to wheel and deal, he will likely convert one of them into a first down. This level of freedom has led to an elite offense the last few years but also a great deal of inconsistency. Beane was vocal about needing those short and intermediate threats to provide rhythm to our 3 point offense. We beefed up the line and drafted Kinkaid. We saw in several games to start the year Buffalo was going all in with the 12 personnel. From a Madden perspective such an approach should offer more consistency in short yardage but the reality is teams aren't modifying outside of Nickle when we go to this look so it's really just a heavier 3 WR set. One we have had some success running out of but not at the level you would expect if it was true 12 man personnel vs nickel or dime.    

 

We are several weeks into the season now so any inkling as to a surprise with our two TE sets is no longer present. We sort of hit rock bottom mid way or so last year after a really hot start. Perhaps we struggle to adjust after defenses first adjust to us. Like last year, after a hot start, we seem to be struggling a good deal. We really seem stuck right now on who we want to be. We went in with a focus on 12 personnel and running the ball, but we are still a soft team largely built on broken plays. If anything the attempts at running more conventional approach are limiting the amount of plays Josh has to be Josh.  Allen not running with the ball is just the cherry on top of this crisis. It was an option Josh took consistently and would provide almost 3 first downs per game. It would convert 0 yardage and negative plays into positive yardage allowing us to rack up a few critical first downs while we figured out what we wanted to do. 

 

I wish an easy fix existed here. I highly doubt the Bills will go to the Josh Allen show. Meanwhile, as an offense, Buffalo and Allen have never really showed the ability to be a consistent on schedule, drive the field offense. We seem stuck trying to fit that mold without any options to consistently keep us ahead of the chains and our offense in some sort of rhythm. I'm hoping we see more no huddle next week as the no huddle does seem to give us a little bit of timing. 

[MasterStrategist]

1 minute ago, Mikie2times said:

Team play our two TE's with Nickel or Dime. They have no respect for it being a bulked up package. They treat it as a 3 WR set and rightfully so. 

Exactly.  And our running game isn't good

enough to take advantage.

 

Then in conjunction, we've taken more speed off the field and basically have Knox/Gabe who aren't scaring anyone 1-1. 

 

I just think it's a "domino effect", of keeping Knox/Kincaid/Davis out there together.

 

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

Just now, Mikie2times said:

I was going to start a thread with this post, but it overlaps with several. I will just post it in this thread. 

 

 

If Josh has 3 plays to wheel and deal, he will likely convert one of them into a first down. This level of freedom has led to an elite offense the last few years but also a great deal of inconsistency. Beane was vocal about needing those short and intermediate threats to provide rhythm to our 3 point offense. We beefed up the line and drafted Kinkaid. We saw in several games to start the year Buffalo was going all in with the 12 personnel. From a Madden perspective such an approach should offer more consistency in short yardage but the reality is teams aren't modifying outside of Nickle when we go to this look so it's really just a heavier 3 WR set. One we have had some success running out of but not at the level you would expect if it was true 12 man personnel vs nickel or dime.    

 

We are several weeks into the season now so any inkling as to a surprise with our two TE sets is no longer present. We sort of hit rock bottom mid way or so last year after a really hot start. Perhaps we struggle to adjust after defenses first adjust to us. Like last year, after a hot start, we seem to be struggling a good deal. We really seem stuck right now on who we want to be. We went in with a focus on 12 personnel and running the ball, but we are still a soft team largely built on broken plays. If anything the attempts at running more conventional approach are limiting the amount of plays Josh has to be Josh.  Allen not running with the ball is just the cherry on top of this crisis. It was an option Josh took consistently and would provide almost 3 first downs per game. It would convert 0 yardage and negative plays into positive yardage allowing us to rack up a few critical first downs while we figured out what we wanted to do. 

 

I wish an easy fix existed here. I highly doubt the Bills will go to the Josh Allen show. Meanwhile, as an offense, Buffalo and Allen have never really showed the ability to be a consistent on schedule, drive the field offense. We seem stuck trying to fit that mold without any options to consistently keep us ahead of the chains and our offense in some sort of rhythm. I'm hoping we see more no huddle next week as the no huddle does seem to give us a little bit of timing. 

I can see why they tried what they have been trying but it ain’t workin and I’m all for just lettin josh go balls to the wall. 
 

they just don’t execute consistently enough to sustain drives which is likely why we have seen josh pressing to hit big plays in the past few years 

[vincec]

3 minutes ago, balln said:

The advanced stats showed he had the most time to throw per pass this season 

I think this is deceptive. They are keeping TEs and RBs in to help block or at least chip on their way out so the protection is better but there are fewer receiving options. The other team double teams Diggs so they need other options to go to if they’re going to be consistent.

[Dr.Sack]

Dawson Knox is a non-threat at this point and we should only use this formation when running or max protect play action. Knox has been a bust in 2023. 

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, MasterStrategist said:

Exactly.  And our running game isn't good

enough to take advantage.

 

Then in conjunction, we've taken more speed off the field and basically have Knox/Gabe who aren't scaring anyone 1-1. 

 

I just think it's a "domino effect", of keeping Knox/Kincaid/Davis out there together.

 

 

I agree. It's like we said, "see" two TE's, respect the laws of two TE's and play with 7 in the box! Then the NFL was like, no, those are two WR's. We will treat them like that until you show us we don't have to. 

 

1 minute ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I can see why they tried what they have been trying but it ain’t workin and I’m all for just lettin josh go balls to the wall. 
 

they just don’t execute consistently enough to sustain drives which is likely why we have seen josh pressing to hit big plays in the past few years 

This dates back to Beasley. As much as I hate saying it. That little slant he used to run where Josh would almost side arm it. It was 7-11 for 5-10 yards. We have no plays in our entire playbook that can replicate what that play did for us.  

[MasterStrategist]

1 minute ago, Mikie2times said:

I was going to start a thread with this post, but it overlaps with several. I will just post it in this thread. 

 

 

If Josh has 3 plays to wheel and deal, he will likely convert one of them into a first down. This level of freedom has led to an elite offense the last few years but also a great deal of inconsistency. Beane was vocal about needing those short and intermediate threats to provide rhythm to our 3 point offense. We beefed up the line and drafted Kinkaid. We saw in several games to start the year Buffalo was going all in with the 12 personnel. From a Madden perspective such an approach should offer more consistency in short yardage but the reality is teams aren't modifying outside of Nickle when we go to this look so it's really just a heavier 3 WR set. One we have had some success running out of but not at the level you would expect if it was true 12 man personnel vs nickel or dime.    

 

We are several weeks into the season now so any inkling as to a surprise with our two TE sets is no longer present. We sort of hit rock bottom mid way or so last year after a really hot start. Perhaps we struggle to adjust after defenses first adjust to us. Like last year, after a hot start, we seem to be struggling a good deal. We really seem stuck right now on who we want to be. We went in with a focus on 12 personnel and running the ball, but we are still a soft team largely built on broken plays. If anything the attempts at running more conventional approach are limiting the amount of plays Josh has to be Josh.  Allen not running with the ball is just the cherry on top of this crisis. It was an option Josh took consistently and would provide almost 3 first downs per game. It would convert 0 yardage and negative plays into positive yardage allowing us to rack up a few critical first downs while we figured out what we wanted to do. 

 

I wish an easy fix existed here. I highly doubt the Bills will go to the Josh Allen show. Meanwhile, as an offense, Buffalo and Allen have never really showed the ability to be a consistent on schedule, drive the field offense. We seem stuck trying to fit that mold without any options to consistently keep us ahead of the chains and our offense in some sort of rhythm. I'm hoping we see more no huddle next week as the no huddle does seem to give us a little bit of timing. 

Thank you, great post! 

 

Agree with all of this, well said and what I was trying to convey.

 

I feel like we've forced this "12 personnel"/short passing and efficient style.  When we don't have the offensive line and WR2 to make it work.  It's not just 1 thing, and coupled with Kincaid being a rookie.  

 

But your point about give Josh 3x to get a first, and we'll get one, is very valid.  And was Dabs MO.

 

We also used to have the mindset that we shouldn't need to get into 3rd down, in order to move the chains. It seems like our identity (or lack thereof) now is to get into 3rd and short.  But it's backfiring and actually we've been statistically worse in getting into 3rd and long situations. 

 

I know others saying it's not as easy as changing formation/personnel groupings. I agree, and what I said in OP, but it's a start.  Our offense LY had it's struggles too, but not to this level of agonizing execution. 

 

We've got improved IOL, Cook is better/better grinder in Murray, better with Kincaid than what we had LY. Somehow we've become worse, and to me it stems back to wanting to change our identity into something that's not working (personell groupings/route tree)

[The Frankish Reich]

24 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Teams are playing cover 2 and then beating our tackles with wide rushes.  I don’t think seven step drops are going to work.

A RB who stays in to block and can actually block would have helped today. 

[vincec]

1 minute ago, The Frankish Reich said:

A RB who stays in to block and can actually block would have helped today. 

I know, right? It’s bad enough that they have to keep them in but then they miss their blocks anyway, 😂. Better off just sending them out.

[Norcalbillsfan]

22 minutes ago, vincec said:

Honestly, there are so many things wrong that formation seems like the least of it. I would probably start with: 

- lack of big plays

- pre snap penalties

- OL getting steamrolled

I think recievers not getting seperation at the line, and everyone but diggs having disappearing acts could be added to your list.

[vincec]

1 minute ago, Norcalbillsfan said:

I think recievers not getting seperation at the line, and everyone but diggs having disappearing acts could be added to your list.

QB missing open receivers, drops, … the list can go on. It’s amazing how far the offense has fallen in two years.

Edited October 23, 2023 by vincec

[Coach Tuesday]

9 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Thank you, great post! 

 

Agree with all of this, well said and what I was trying to convey.

 

I feel like we've forced this "12 personnel"/short passing and efficient style.  When we don't have the offensive line and WR2 to make it work.  It's not just 1 thing, and coupled with Kincaid being a rookie.  

 

But your point about give Josh 3x to get a first, and we'll get one, is very valid.  And was Dabs MO.

 

We also used to have the mindset that we shouldn't need to get into 3rd down, in order to move the chains. It seems like our identity (or lack thereof) now is to get into 3rd and short.  But it's backfiring and actually we've been statistically worse in getting into 3rd and long situations. 

 

I know others saying it's not as easy as changing formation/personnel groupings. I agree, and what I said in OP, but it's a start.  Our offense LY had it's struggles too, but not to this level of agonizing execution. 

 

We've got improved IOL, Cook is better/better grinder in Murray, better with Kincaid than what we had LY. Somehow we've become worse, and to me it stems back to wanting to change our identity into something that's not working (personell groupings/route tree)

And you are describing a self-scouting issue.  They do not seem to understand how other teams view their offensive personnel.  They overrate their own players. This is a serious process problem.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

15 minutes ago, vincec said:

I think this is deceptive. They are keeping TEs and RBs in to help block or at least chip on their way out so the protection is better but there are fewer receiving options. The other team double teams Diggs so they need other options to go to if they’re going to be consistent.

It’s extremely deceptive…he is buying a ton of that time himself too.  There were some well blocked plays up front but a lot of times it’s a straight up jailbreak.  
 

no shot we turn this around unless the offensive line improves.  Josh ain’t blameless but he’s fighting an uphill battle 

Edited October 23, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[MasterStrategist]

10 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

And you are describing a self-scouting issue.  They do not seem to understand how other teams view their offensive personnel.  They overrate their own players. This is a serious process problem.

Yes, this + a purposeful intent to change into a different identity on offense.  

 

That identify on offense, isn't a bad thing, but we do not have a WR2 or OL to be consistently good at it.  Which is exactly what we've seen...inconsistent. 

 

I'd rather see our LY offense, with thr occasional big play/intermediate attack hit on occasion.  VS this much more conservative/safe offense also be inconsistent.

 

In theory, I see what Dorsey is trying to do and agree it would work with some different personnel. 

 

But we have such a weird identity issue right now/mismatch of players for what they're trying to do: OL (mix of grinders/finesse even at IOL), WR (good to have different skillets) issue is nobody can win 1-1 except Diggs.  

 

Part of me wonders how much of this is pinned on Beane vs coaching staff philosophy not aligning

 

 

[boyst]

45 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

I dont disagree.   Just wish those werent the options we had to choose from.    Beane dropped the ball big time when it comes to receiving options.

I wish I had the time to figure out our search function to go back through the hype in a few threads we had bringing these two JAGs here.

40 minutes ago, balln said:

The advanced stats showed he had the most time to throw per pass this season 

I guess recency bias it just doesn't seem that way.  🤯

[julian]

Time to get back to Josh spreading it out in shotgun with RPOs and QB designed runs with Diggs Kincaid Hardy Davis Cook running routes 

[Luka]

Cook would have to be featured in the passing game more for 12 personnel to be truly effective. 

 

My big question is why no RPO? Josh is a big man and the threat of his legs needs to make a return. Run a QB power out of 12 personnel a couple times and teams might start thinking about who's out there depending on down and distance. 

 

We used to run that pop pass to McKenzie out of an RPO play action. Daboll was much better at threatening defenses with Josh's legs and it really created a ton of opportunities for Josh to make plays. 

 

Josh has to be Josh if this team wants to even sniff the playoffs. The defense is essentially a 2nd team defense with a couple notable names like Poyer and Floyd sprinkled in. Corner play has been awful. No matter who plays linebacker, if one of them isn't Matt Milano, that group is below average. 

 

It's time for it to be the Josh Allen show again.

[Bill51390]

The problem is McDermott and Dorsey are trying to make Allen be a game manager and control the clock and have these long sustaining drives all game. Which is great in theory if you’re scoring every drive and the defense is playing outstanding. But that’s not Allen or this offense. Allen thrives in a fast uptempo offense with big plays. They need to cut this ***** out. It’s no coincidence that the past three games the offense has looked abysmal until the fourth, when we are like all crap we’re losing, time to switch to the uptempo big play offense and suddenly the offense is phenomenal.
 

Our defense has suffered too many critical injuries to try and sustain this kind of offense. Dorsey either needs to figure out a good balance between the two or we just need to take the handcuffs off and let loose.