10 interesting stats I have been playing with this week | Allen, Diggs, Cook, Defense

[Einstein]

1) Allen goes to his first read only 55% of the time. That is 3rd lowest in the NFL. Mahomes throws to his first read 60% of the time. Tua? 74% of the time!

 

 

 

2) Diggs is 11th in the NFL in first read targets.

 

 

 

3) Allen is #9 in the NFL in checkdown %. He is definitely taking what the defense is giving him.

 

4) Knox has a very low catch rate of only 58%. Kincaid is over 90%.

 

 

5) Over the last three seasons, Josh Allen has ran an average of 43 times through Week 6. He has ran 22 times this season. 

 

6) Cook has a significantly higher YPC on man/gap runs than zone.

 

 

7) Epenesa was the highest rated defensive player on Sunday. Poyer was rated highly as well.

 

8 ) I'm consistently shocked at the number of posters who criticize Allen. This may be the best season of his career thus far.
 

 

9) Allen is #1 in the NFL in sacks avoided.

 
10) The defense is 4th in the NFL in percentage of dropbacks that we pressure the opposing teams QB.

 

 

Edited October 20, 2023 by Einstein

[HoofHearted]

4 minutes ago, Einstein said:

1) Allen goes to his first read only 55% of the time. That is 3rd lowest in the NFL. Mahomes throws to his first read 60% of the time. Tua? 74% of the time!

 

 

 

2) Diggs is 11th in the NFL in first read targets.

 

 

 

3) Allen is #9 in the NFL in checkdown %. He is definitely taking what the defense is giving him.

 

4) Knox has a very low catch rate of only 58%. Kincaid is over 90%.

 

 

5) Over the last three seasons, Josh Allen has ran an average of 43 times through Week 6. He has ran 22 times this season. 

 

6) Cook has a significantly higher YPC on man/gap runs than zone.

 

 

7) Epenesa was the highest rated defensive player on Sunday. Poyer was rated highly as well.

 

8 ) I'm consistently shocked at the number of posters who criticize Allen. This may be the best season of his career thus far.
 

 

9) Allen is #1 in the NFL in sacks avoided.

 
10) The defense is 4th in the NFL in percentage of dropbacks that we pressure the opposing teams QB.

 

 

These from PFF?

[Nephilim17]

Thanks for that.

 

This seems to blow up the narrative that the ball is forced to Diggs too much.

Interesting about Kincaid vs. Knox in terms of catch rate. That does support the narrative that Knox is not a consistent catcher. Just a hunch, but by the end of 2024 Kincaid will have displaced Knox as the number one TE.

[Einstein]

Just now, HoofHearted said:

These from PFF?

No this is the NFL Data Suite by Scott Barrett (creator of xFP metric that ESPN uses) and Brett Whitefield (former PFF).

It's in Beta right now.

5 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

This seems to blow up the narrative that the ball is forced to Diggs too much.

I think what it really does is show that the entire NFL designs plays to go to the first target.
 

We are not alone.

[Virgil]

How do they know what the first read is?

[HoofHearted]

5 minutes ago, Einstein said:

No this is the NFL Data Suite by Scott Barrett (creator of xFP metric that ESPN uses) and Brett Whitefield (former PFF).

It's in Beta right now.

Where does their data come from?

[Einstein]

Just now, Virgil said:

How do they know what the first read is?

I'm assuming the first WR the QB focuses on after the snap. That's a fairly clear indicator.

However, this is one of several questions I have asked them for clarification on.

[Big Turk]

 

 

Taron Johnson has been balling in coverage...among the best in the NFL this year. Same with Bernard, ranked 5th in the NFL. And look who has been 2nd worst in the NFL...our old friend...

 

 

Edited October 20, 2023 by Big Turk

[Einstein]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

 

Taron Johnson has been balling in coverage...among the best in the NFL this year. Same with Bernard, ranked 5th in the NFL.

 

 

Yes.

He has been very good against the run as well.

[Big Turk]

23 minutes ago, Einstein said:

1) Allen goes to his first read only 55% of the time. That is 3rd lowest in the NFL. Mahomes throws to his first read 60% of the time. Tua? 74% of the time!

 

 

 

2) Diggs is 11th in the NFL in first read targets.

 

 

 

3) Allen is #9 in the NFL in checkdown %. He is definitely taking what the defense is giving him.

 

4) Knox has a very low catch rate of only 58%. Kincaid is over 90%.

 

 

5) Over the last three seasons, Josh Allen has ran an average of 43 times through Week 6. He has ran 22 times this season. 

 

6) Cook has a significantly higher YPC on man/gap runs than zone.

 

 

7) Epenesa was the highest rated defensive player on Sunday. Poyer was rated highly as well.

 

8 ) I'm consistently shocked at the number of posters who criticize Allen. This may be the best season of his career thus far.
 

 

9) Allen is #1 in the NFL in sacks avoided.

 
10) The defense is 4th in the NFL in percentage of dropbacks that we pressure the opposing teams QB.

 

 

 

 

Don't think anyone should be surprised at Cook's higher YPC on gap runs...Bills have ONLY been consistently successful running with gap scheme for years. At least this year they didn't try to force zone down the OLine's throat and have been mostly gap, although perhaps some of the struggles the last few weeks running have been from attempting more zone runs?

[eball]

29 minutes ago, Einstein said:

8 ) I'm consistently shocked at the number of posters who criticize Allen. This may be the best season of his career thus far.

 

He had one bad game (half, really) -- and it was one of the worst of his career.  Since then he's been brilliant.  I just wish he'd run a bit more when it's wide open in front of him.

 

[jahnyc]

For 1), does this mean that the first read is not open (at least that is what Allen thinks)?  

[Einstein]

4 minutes ago, jahnyc said:

For 1), does this mean that the first read is not open (at least that is what Allen thinks)?  

It means the QB throws to his read that % of dropbacks.

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

It means the QB throws to his read that % of dropbacks.

 

And that is why the Bills plan of disrupting Tua's first read and the timing of the offense against Miami was so successful.

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

And that is why the Bills plan of disrupting Tua's first read and the timing of the offense against Miami was so successful.

 

Exactly!

[ngbills]

30 minutes ago, eball said:

 

He had one bad game (half, really) -- and it was one of the worst of his career.  Since then he's been brilliant.  I just wish he'd run a bit more when it's wide open in front of him.

 

He is playing smarter (not sure that is the best word) as he is taking much less risk this year. But...is that what we want? While his completion % is up and his efficiency looks better much of that is due to a much higher number of short passes and dump offs. His rushing numbers are down and so are his passing yards. So it begs the question do we want Allen to become more of a high efficiency / game manager QB? Is that what equals success and his best year ever? 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

What would be interesting is those first few stats for Burrow compared to Allen. 

 

Because seemingly their offense has been Burrow to Chase, and last week all the calf excuse was gone and they still only got to 17, with 3 in the second half.

 

So Allen is 30th in first read percentage, where is Burrow?

 

Also the stats on Burrow checking down, because again he tried to go deep last week and it was an underthrown interception.

 

Against Arizona it was all good. 

[Einstein's Dog]

21 minutes ago, ngbills said:

He is playing smarter (not sure that is the best word) as he is taking much less risk this year. But...is that what we want? While his completion % is up and his efficiency looks better much of that is due to a much higher number of short passes and dump offs. His rushing numbers are down and so are his passing yards. So it begs the question do we want Allen to become more of a high efficiency / game manager QB? Is that what equals success and his best year ever? 

Yes, we want Josh to learn to take the short pass, to take less of a beating.  We have better personnel this year with Cook/Kincaid.  It looks like a priority that Dorsey has emphasized (and doesn't seem to be getting much credit for).   There is a big benefit to the future of the team and Josh to learn this skill.  

 

In the playoffs you take off the restrictions.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

39 minutes ago, ngbills said:

He is playing smarter (not sure that is the best word) as he is taking much less risk this year. But...is that what we want? While his completion % is up and his efficiency looks better much of that is due to a much higher number of short passes and dump offs. His rushing numbers are down and so are his passing yards. So it begs the question do we want Allen to become more of a high efficiency / game manager QB? Is that what equals success and his best year ever? 

I say no.

 

I want him to play like he always has. This version is...vanilla and beige.

 

LOTS of people here disagree with me about that because they're afraid. Give me the mad bomber melon farmer

 

[Einstein]

24 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

So Allen is 30th in first read percentage, where is Burrow?

Burrow is 12th in 1st read %.
 

24 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Also the stats on Burrow checking down

And 12th in checkdown % too.