Simms: Gabe Davis is a good player, but he's not a number two

[Mango]

10 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

The superbowl contenders do.

 

There is certainly a cost effective formula that comes into play when talking about QB and WR cost for SB teams. I posted it a while back, but no teams pay 2 hefty WR contracts, and have their QB on a big money deal and win the SB. 

Last years Chiefs with Mahomes at $35M and Kelce at $9M are among the highest combined cap % to win a SB. 

 

I am not arguing not to upgrade anybody. Go do it. Get better. Draft somebody. Draft them high! Then go get me somebody who can play the slot at a high level for $4M per year. But the idea that all these SB teams are paying their QB and paying multiple WR big money as 1a/1b options isn't true. 

 

At some point we have to do better with what we have until the offseason comes. Gabe Davis isn't ruining our offensive production. 

Edited October 19, 2023 by Mango

[dollars 2 donuts]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

What WR do you care about on KC? Do they even have 1? Are you claiming they aren't a SB contender?

 

Yeah on this, too.

 

Here's the thing, as well, if someone came to me if I were the GM and said, "Would you trade Allen for Mahomes, straight up?" I would honestly say "No" and that would be for various reasons.

 

However, I would immediately follow it up with (and I love, Josh) "Give me Mahomes and Andy Reid and I will sign the paperwork right now."

 

 

 

 

[Andrew Son]

1 minute ago, Mango said:

 

There is certainly a cost effective formula that comes into play when talking about QB and WR cost for SB teams. I posted it a while back, but no teams pay 2 hefty WR contracts, and have their QB on a big money deal and win the SB. 

Last years Chiefs with Mahomes at $35M and Kelce at $9M are among the highest combined cap % to win a SB. 

 

Yep.  The thinking is that you have an elite QB to elevate the O without having to make massive investments.

 

the only other recent example I can think of are the bucs with Evans and Godwin.

[PBF81]

17 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

You're just comfortable with explaining it away as not being feasible.

 

Me...I'd like to be in the 10%.  I don't want my team to be the standard.  I want them to be the exception, or at least see what the air is like over there to judge and not potentially waste a generational talent at QB.  

 

Oh, it's feasible.  So then what should be the obvious question is why hasn't it happened?  

 

Your last sentence is key.  

 

But we don't seem to be willing to point the fingers at the core causes for the problems and issues.  

 

 

[Mango]

1 minute ago, SWATeam said:

Yep.  The thinking is that you have an elite QB to elevate the O without having to make massive investments.

 

the only other recent example I can think of are the bucs with Evans and Godwin.

 

Those guys are a talented group, but take a gander, they were cheap in their SB year. Evans, Godwin, and Brown had a cap hit of about $12M that year....total. Not each. But all together. 

Go draft somebody better. Go get a Juju at $3M or whatever they got him for in KC. But the constant "we need to sign an established 1a/1b vet. It is only the way for us to succeed" drives me bonkers. 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tampa-bay-buccaneers/cap/2020/

[Thurman#1]

28 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

Thanks, BT, because essentially you're agreeing with me.  

 

You're just comfortable with explaining it away as not being feasible.

 

Me...I'd like to be in the 10%.  I don't want my team to be the standard.  I want them to be the exception, or at least see what the air is like over there to judge and not potentially waste a generational talent at QB.  

 

You see I lived through a time that was pretty successful with this team when there were two future Hall of Famers at WR. Those Bills apologize to you, wholeheartedly, for not being standard.

 

 

 

No, James Lofton was still a really good player, but he was not a true #1 by that time, he just wasn't. The Bills got him when he was 33 years old.

 

He did have one really good year when it is arguable he played like a #1 with us. The other three it just is not.

 

His four years here he put up 166, 712, 1072 and 786 yards. Even at the time, except for that one year, those were good solid #2 numbers.

 

Generally speaking if you want to get two #1s, the way to do it is to suck and get a nice high draft pick when you've already got one #1 on your team. There are certainly exceptions, but overall that's the way to go about it. Most true #1s are high draft picks.

 

Now, name a team with two #1s who have won a Super Bowl in the last few years.

 

The 2022 Chiefs? Nope.

The 2021 Rams? Nope.

The 2020 Bucs? Nope.

The 2019 Chiefs? Nope. Hill missed a lot of games and racked up 860 and was still far better than their #2 WR, Sammy W.

 

The 2006 Colts, definitely. Where is another team since then?

 

What you more often see is a really excellent QB making up for not having two #1s by spreading it around, and including TEs and RBs and #2s and #3s.

 

 

 

 

He is not agreeing with you at all. 

 

 

14 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

There is certainly a cost effective formula that comes into play when talking about QB and WR cost for SB teams. I posted it a while back, but no teams pay 2 hefty WR contracts, and have their QB on a big money deal and win the SB. 

Last years Chiefs with Mahomes at $35M and Kelce at $9M are among the highest combined cap % to win a SB. 

 

I am not arguing not to upgrade anybody. Go do it. Get better. Draft somebody. Draft them high! Then go get me somebody who can play the slot at a high level for $4M per year. But the idea that all these SB teams are paying their QB and paying multiple WR big money as 1a/1b options isn't true. 

 

At some point we have to do better with what we have until the offseason comes. Gabe Davis isn't ruining our offensive production. 

 

 

Ah, thank you, Mango. You put it far better and more succinctly than I did.

 

 

Edited October 19, 2023 by Thurman#1

[dollars 2 donuts]

9 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Oh, it's feasible.  So then what should be the obvious question is why hasn't it happened?  

 

Your last sentence is key.  

 

But we don't seem to be willing to point the fingers at the core causes for the problems and issues.  

 

 

 

 

PB, come on brother.  You know...YOU KNOW that would be  just a whole other thread!  😂

 

I absolutely agree, my friend.

 

In a perfect world should DK Metcalf be on this team, taking the draft spot of Cody Ford in that draft, and retaining Wyatt Teller?

 

Yeah, but the world is not perfect.

 

 

Edited October 19, 2023 by dollars 2 donuts

[PBF81]

18 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

The superbowl contenders do.

 

San Francisco's the leading Super Bowl contender right now.  Deebo Samuel is their #2 WR.  He's had one notable season, otherwise borderline #2/#3 seasons. 

 

He's currently on pace for 800 yards, 3 TDs, and 30 1st-Downs.  

 

Davis is on pace for almost 1,000 yards, 11 TDs, and more than 30 1st-Downs.  

 

Samuel has averaged about 1 TD for every 4 starts and 3 1st-Downs per start. 

 

Davis has averaged about 1 TD for every 1.5 starts (nearly three times the rate) and 3 1st-Downs per start.  

 

Would we rather have Samuel, ... for example?  Would he perform better here than he has in San Fran?  If so, why?  

 

He's currently on a 3-year $72M contact as a former high 2nd-round draft pick.  

 

Thoughts?  

 

 

[Scott7975]

12 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

Yes, please tell him about the reigning champs full arsenal!   

You mean the Chiefs whose #2 had 78 catches for 933 yards? The team that has a bunch of guys that can run a myriad of routes, move chains, and has one of the greatest TE's of all time? The team that actually had a run game with a shifty runner that between the air and ground got 1000 yards for them? The same team that for a few years had Kelce and Hill? They always had guys on par or better than Davis.  Better than him because they can run routes and move chains. They weren't stars but they weren't one trick 2 route ponys either.

 

Maybe you mean the Bengals who had Chase, Higgins, Boyd, Mixon.

Maybe you mean the Rams who had Kupp, Woods, and ODB.

Maybe you mean Philly who had Smith, Brown, and Goedert.

Maybe you mean the 49ers who had McCaffrey, Kittle, and Samuel.

 

Sorry bro but SuperBowl contenders have better receivers than Gabe Davis.  The last time we contended we had Diggs, prime Beasley, and Brown

[dollars 2 donuts]

6 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

No, James Lofton was still a really good player, but he was not a true #1 by that time, he just wasn't. The Bills got him when he was 33 years old.

 

He did have one really good year when it is arguable he played like a #1 with us. The other three it just is not.

 

His four years here he put up 166, 712, 1072 and 786 yards. Even at the time, except for that one year, those were good solid #2 numbers.

 

Generally speaking if you want to get two #1s, the way to do it is to suck and get a nice high draft pick when you've already got one #1 on your team. There are certainly exceptions, but overall that's the way to go about it. Most true #1s are high draft picks.

 

Now, name a team with two #1s who have won a Super Bowl in the last few years.

 

The 2022 Chiefs? Nope.

The 2021 Rams? Nope.

The 2020 Bucs? Nope.

The 2019 Chiefs? Nope. Hill missed a lot of games and racked up 860 and was still far better than their #2 WR, Sammy W.

 

The 2006 Colts, definitely. Where is another team since then?

 

What you more often see is a really excellent QB making up for not having two #1s by spreading it around, and including TEs and RBs and #2s and #3s.

 

 

 

 

He is not agreeing with you at all. 

 

 

 

 

Ah, thank you, Mango. You put it far better and more succinctly than I did.

 

 

 

 

I didn't say Lofton was a number 1 anywhere or at anytime in my post.

 

I said he was a future Hall of Famer.

 

More specifically, even as you stated, he was a #2.  Yes. And that is what we are looking for.

 

 

Edited October 19, 2023 by dollars 2 donuts

[mjt328]

One of the following is true:

 

A)  The Bills have good weapons on offense, but Ken Dorsey is unable to properly utilize anyone except for Stefon Diggs.

 

B)  The Bills have good weapons on offense, but Josh Allen doesn't trust throwing to anyone except for Stefon Diggs.

 

C)  The Bills don't have good enough weapons on offense.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

16 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Oh, it's feasible.  So then what should be the obvious question is why hasn't it happened?  

 

Your last sentence is key.  

 

But we don't seem to be willing to point the fingers at the core causes for the problems and issues.  

 

 

 

For teams with later draft picks I'd argue it's less feasible than theoretically possible. You generally have to get very lucky with a draft pick that far overperforms his draft spot. 

 

And even then the teams with two #1s don't see a ton of high level success. Some. But it's not that common and the list of SB champs, as you know, tells a story about how well getting two #1s generally turns out.

 

 

Edited October 19, 2023 by Thurman#1

[dpberr]

I think Ken Dorsey gets a generous pass on responsibility regarding Gabe Davis's play from Simms.  There appears to be few plays designed specifically for Davis in this offense other than the Gabe Davis go route.  Davis's production relies solely on being open on in the millisecond of the 2nd or 3rd read.  

 

That's the catch with thoughts of upgrading WR2 with another player from another team - there's no assurance he'll throw to that player either.

 

I felt that in the Daboll years, Beasley, McKenzie and Knox had plays specific to them where they are the target, and the Bills would ride the hot hand on occasion - evidenced by those one off games where any one of those guys would have a superb game where they'd have 100+ yards. (McKenzie  12/21 vs New England, Knox 10/21 vs KC, Beasley had a bunch of 100+ yard games, but just 1 in 2021).

[Mango]

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

You mean the Chiefs whose #2 had 78 catches for 933 yards? The team that has a bunch of guys that can run a myriad of routes, move chains, and has one of the greatest TE's of all time? The team that actually had a run game with a shifty runner that between the air and ground got 1000 yards for them? The same team that for a few years had Kelce and Hill? They always had guys on par or better than Davis.  Better than him because they can run routes and move chains. They weren't stars but they weren't one trick 2 route ponys either.

 

Maybe you mean the Bengals who had Chase, Higgins, Boyd, Mixon.

Maybe you mean the Rams who had Kupp, Woods, and ODB.

Maybe you mean Philly who had Smith, Brown, and Goedert.

Maybe you mean the 49ers who had McCaffrey, Kittle, and Samuel.

 

Sorry bro but SuperBowl contenders have better receivers than Gabe Davis.  The last time we contended we had Diggs, prime Beasley, and Brown

 

Bengals - All of those players on a rookie contracts - Nobody is saying the Bills shouldn't draft a WR

Rams - if we can sign OBJ to a $850k deal we should do it. Also Kupp cost them $2M that year. Woods wasn't on the roster. 

Philly - QB on a rookie contract. You can choose their win or their loss. But both had next to zero cost at the QB position. 

San Fran - Sure, go ahead, get rid of the QB contract, go get me a 7th rounder to play the position, then use that money to sign all the skill positions. 

[Scott7975]

29 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

What WR do you care about on KC? Do they even have 1? Are you claiming they aren't a SB contender?

 

This year is not great for them receiver wise.  But who cares?  How many SB's and AFCCG have they been to now because they keep investing? Thats why they are looking to improve it. They still have guys that can run routes and move chains though.  Are you saying they didn't have weapons in the past?  Their guys are running the tree.  Davis is running sprints.  I'd rather have a guy that can run the routes in the offensive system and can move chains and keep us short of the sticks on third down consistently than a guy that is going to catch 2-3 balls for a chunk of yards per game.

Edited October 19, 2023 by Scott7975

[PBF81]

3 minutes ago, dpberr said:

I think Ken Dorsey gets a generous pass on responsibility regarding Gabe Davis's play from Simms.  There appears to be few plays designed specifically for Davis in this offense other than the Gabe Davis go route.  Davis's production relies solely on being open on in the millisecond of the 2nd or 3rd read.  

 

That's the catch with thoughts of upgrading WR2 with another player from another team - there's no assurance he'll throw to that player either.

 

Agree with that generally speaking, but not with the bolded part.  

 

Here's evidence in support of that.  I posted it elsewhere already.  

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axzo6SP7hSE

 

 

[Scott7975]

2 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Bengals - All of those players on a rookie contracts - Nobody is saying the Bills shouldn't draft a WR

Rams - if we can sign OBJ to a $850k deal we should do it. Also Kupp cost them $2M that year. Woods wasn't on the roster. 

Philly - QB on a rookie contract. You can choose their win or their loss. But both had next to zero cost at the QB position. 

San Fran - Sure, go ahead, get rid of the QB contract, go get me a 7th rounder to play the position, then use that money to sign all the skill positions. 

 

It doesn't matter.  They invested in those players and they became superbowl contenders. It doesn't matter if they can keep those players down the road.  It got them to the show.  We don't invest.  Gabe Davis is not getting us to the show running sprints.  

[JohnBonhamRocks]

1 hour ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

That's literally the only comp where that's true imho, because Andy's probably the best in the league at scheming open "easy" passes for his QB--put that same situation in say, New England for example with Mac n Cheese's offense, and see how that's been going? 

Fair point. I think the other side of that coin is that if you have a Mahomes (or an Allen) then you should be able to make due without having top end pass catching talent past one alpha and a bunch of serviceable guys. Then again, I think it’s also fair to say Moore and Toney have somewhat held Mahomes back this year. Dallas might be a comp - not sure there’s a pass catcher close to Lamb’s talent there. 

[Mango]

5 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

One of the following is true:

 

A)  The Bills have good weapons on offense, but Ken Dorsey is unable to properly utilize anyone except for Stefon Diggs.

 

B)  The Bills have good weapons on offense, but Josh Allen doesn't trust throwing to anyone except for Stefon Diggs.

 

C)  The Bills don't have good enough weapons on offense.

 

 

 

I think this is overly simplified. More than one thing can be true at one time. 

1.  Dorsey needs to get better. 
2. The Bills can and should identify WR in the draft

3.  I don't think Allen has trust issues, I think he has decision making issues where sometimes he just wants the big play/to throw to Diggs. Sometimes he thinks he can complete every throw even when it isn't the right throw. And sometimes he doesn't see other open pass catchers.

Holistically those are the issues with the offense. Sometimes they all become a problem at one time. Sometimes just one or two pop themselves up. 

 

We can address 2 of those 3 things mid season. And I think if we alleviate those issues most people will have less of an issue with out personnel. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

6 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

One of the following is true:

 

A)  The Bills have good weapons on offense, but Ken Dorsey is unable to properly utilize anyone except for Stefon Diggs.

 

B)  The Bills have good weapons on offense, but Josh Allen doesn't trust throwing to anyone except for Stefon Diggs.

 

C)  The Bills don't have good enough weapons on offense.

 

 

 

D) A and C  ( I had to add that because you only allowed for 1 of the following to be true.  😁)

 

Sometimes Josh trusts throwing to others almost to a fault.  On top of that if he only trusted DIggs then Diggs honestly would have 10 or so grabs every game.

A) isn't all Dorsey, because Josh probably (maybe?) needs to see things a little better, but  some of that is up to Dorsey to help him and his receivers.