Simms: Gabe Davis is a good player, but he's not a number two

[LyndonvilleBill]

3 hours ago, Beast said:

If he’s not a #2 then he’s a #4. Your 3 wr needs to be a shifty, underneath guy with sure hands that finds the sticks.

 

 

Not so sure I agree with this. If we had Say a guy like Beasley in the slot, he would be your shifty, chain mover and could be #2, while Davis could be #3. No? I think it all goes back to "What's a #2 or #3". Targets? Position? Does your #2 have to play outside? 

[Beast]

22 minutes ago, LyndonvilleBill said:

Not so sure I agree with this. If we had Say a guy like Beasley in the slot, he would be your shifty, chain mover and could be #2, while Davis could be #3. No? I think it all goes back to "What's a #2 or #3". Targets? Position? Does your #2 have to play outside? 

Whoever is on the field more.

[colin]

12 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

*sigh* this begs the question "what is a real difference maker"?  It sounds like the kissing cousin to the question "what do you mean by #2 WR?"

 

Previously we were at "if him doing better doesn't make our team results better, then I gotta think he's not making the team better".  Well, he is, clearly, making the Bills team better and has made the Bills team better since he was drafted in the 4th round.

 

But if we're now talking "real difference maker" as in "guy who can totally take over the game if you manage to shut down the #1", we're now into "I'll take teams with two number one receivers, Alex" and the answer "What are Miami, Cincy, Philly, and San Francisco?"

 

If we want to say Gabe Davis isn't Jaylen Waddle, Tee Higgins,  Devonta Smith, or Deebo Samuel - well, No.  No, on  the evidence to date, he's not.  Fair enough. 

 

He wasn't drafted in the 1st or 2nd round, either.

 

The Bills are trying to get WR Champagne on a Beer Budget, is part of the issue.

 

 

That, is a very good question.

 

 

no, the point is he succeeds almost only in situations where other players on the roster, and many players in the nfl, would also succeed.  he doesn't offer enough (or not enough above replacement level) to be an impact player.

 

bease and brown, for the first two years they were here at least, were much more impactful players, and they weren't exactly expensive.

[Einstein's Dog]

10 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I’d just like to make the point, that both Davis and especially Diggs, could have their targets reduced a bit without reducing their offensive contributions (catches and yards) diminished at all - the reason being that at times Allen is making extremely low percentage throws or even throwing balls away in their direction, when he should be getting the throw out in rhythm and on time to Cook or Kincaid.  

 

Knox, needs to clean up whatever has caused his catch % to drop and his drop % to climb towards his rookie and 2nd year.

I think Knox has good hands and should be included in regularly receiving targets.  This catch and drop % stuff is highly subjective and subject to large movements based on the small sample size. 

 

For instance, do you call the incompletion at the end of the Giants game a drop?  For a player with about 25 targets and 14 receptions these subjective calls make a big difference.

[TH3]

On 10/18/2023 at 9:06 PM, BigDingus said:

What does "not a number 2" even mean anymore?

 

Do you really mean he's not a number 1 playing the number 2 role like Jalen Waddle, Tee Higgins, Tyler Lockett or Devonta Smith?

 

What kind of production do you want out of your WR2? The vast majority of NFL teams would be thrilled to have a WR2 that puts up 800+ yards, 7 TD's & extends the field like Gabe does.

 

Even right now, he's ranked #27 in receiving yards (automatically putting him ahead of multiple #1's), tied for 4th place in TD's with 5 others (ahead of others like Jamar Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Travis Kelce, Mike Evans, and many other WR1's, TE's, and RB's), and is only 61st in receptions. 

 

I'd say he's more than adequate as a WR2, with the only issue being he's not as big a threat in the short-intermediate game as we'd like.

This board wants to hate this team. It’s where this country is now….just wanna hate everything.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

5 hours ago, LyndonvilleBill said:

Not so sure I agree with this. If we had Say a guy like Beasley in the slot, he would be your shifty, chain mover and could be #2, while Davis could be #3. No? I think it all goes back to "What's a #2 or #3". Targets? Position? Does your #2 have to play outside? 

BADOLBILZ nailed it by reminding everyone that the closest the Bills got to the Super Bowl was a lopsided defeat in the 2020 AFCCG.

 

That was peak Beasley, peak Diggs, a declining but still starting John Brown, Knox, Singletary and Moss and probably our best offensive line until 2023, with Daboll.

So I understand why people have positive memories of Beasley, but when we talk evolution of the offense, Allen has said this is Daboll’s offense to a large degree, so it’s been two years of Gabe as the #2 target in this offense, and it’s hard for me to envision right now that without more playmaking this team is going to run the AFC gauntlet in January. 

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 hour ago, TH3 said:

This board wants to hate this team. It’s where this country is now….just wanna hate everything.

We want to win.

 

 

[MJS]

He is obviously a #2 receiver. He just isn't a great #2.

 

He could go to a struggling team like the Pats and be a big upgrade for them. He is a solid player.

[BADOLBILZ]

17 minutes ago, MJS said:

He is obviously a #2 receiver. He just isn't a great #2.

 

He could go to a struggling team like the Pats and be a big upgrade for them. He is a solid player.

 

You have it quite backwards.

 

The Pats have one of the most punchless WR corps for sure but Gabe would probably have to split time on the boundary with DeVante Parker if Davis was with the Pats.   Gabe is more of a deep threat but Parker is much better at catching contested throws so they would probably rotate depending on down/distance/circumstance as the 3rd/4th option behind Juju and Kendrick Bourne in terms of target share.

 

Gabe couldn't even make the rosters in Miami or SF.    Just doesn't get open quick, run routes well enough or catch contested passes well enough to fit in those offenses and since he doesn't contribute on ST's he isn't roster-able if he's not in the top 3.

 

He is in the best possible situation for him to produce.........a team with a big armed QB who can buy 4-5 seconds for Gabe to actually get open and then make the throws in places where CB's usually don't have to cover.   He is just too high up the target list in Buffalo and that leads to way to many mistakes and inefficiencies.   

 

 

Edited October 20, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[SoCal Deek]

2 hours ago, TH3 said:

This board wants to hate this team. It’s where this country is now….just wanna hate everything.

I don’t hate you. 😁

[dave mcbride]

13 hours ago, FireChans said:

Offensively, the Bills went to sleep in that 13 seconds game at moments. I know we like to fondly remember it as a near perfect game from Josh (and it was), but we had 4 punts to the Chiefs 2, we were 6-14 on third down (Chiefs were 8-13) and the Chiefs had 10 more offensive plays and over 130 yards more of offense.

 

Josh Allen made some miracle plays to keep the game alive. the Bills were 4/4 on 4th down, in large part due to Allen putting basically the rest of the offense on his back. 
 

I would say the 13 seconds game was probably the best performance of Josh’s career considering the stakes, the moment, and the gigantic plays he made. But I wouldn’t say the rest of the offense was the same.

Just to be clear, the Chiefs ran 11 plays for 114 yards AFTER the Bills scored with 13 seconds left. It was pretty even through the first 59:47.

Edited October 20, 2023 by dave mcbride

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Just to be clear, the Chiefs ran 11 plays for 114 yards AFTER the Bills scored with 13 seconds left. It was pretty even through the first 59:47.

 

 

Not sure that changes @FireChans point.    It was pretty even......they had the ball the same amount of times at that point.    KC had missed a makable FG in their final possession of the first half.    So overall it was really even but offensively it wasn't a broadly impressive offensive performance by the Bills.........Allen just played out of his head and Davis was running wide open against blown/poor coverage in a disheveled KC secondary that was instead determined to keep Diggs from doing anything at all.

[FireChans]

4 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Not sure that changes @FireChans point.    It was pretty even......they had the ball the same amount of times at that point.    KC had missed a makable FG in their final possession of the first half.    So overall it was really even but offensively it wasn't a broadly impressive offensive performance by the Bills.........Allen just played out of his head and Davis was running wide open against blown/poor coverage in a disheveled KC secondary that was instead determined to keep Diggs from doing anything at all.

Ultimately, if the contention is, could the offense have done more to won the 13 seconds game, the answer is undoubtedly YES.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

I would try and make a move for D Adam’s. Allen would be guaranteed to be MVP after this trade. 

[JaCrispy]

On 10/20/2023 at 12:52 PM, MJS said:

He is obviously a #2 receiver. He just isn't a great #2.

 

He could go to a struggling team like the Pats and be a big upgrade for them. He is a solid player.

He is only a #2 by default- because everyone else, other than Diggs, just flat out sucks…

[Codycolo12]

A #2 is a guy that can get open when your 1 is doubled. Gabe  doesn’t do this frequently enough. On third down when they double diggs. Your two should be able to get open at least a few times a game. a lot of games he doesn’t. Just pull up his game logs where he goes three games in a row of 2 catches for 24 yard. A two should not disappear as much as Davis does. 

[Ya Digg?]

On 10/20/2023 at 1:09 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Gabe couldn't even make the rosters in Miami or SF.    Just doesn't get open quick, run routes well enough or catch contested passes well enough to fit in those offenses and since he doesn't contribute on ST's he isn't roster-able if he's not in the top 3.

 

 

 

 

Do you honestly think he wouldn’t make those rosters, or are you speaking fanatically? Miami had Hill and Waddle and nobody else, 49ers have Samuel and Aiyuk and nobody else

[GoBills808]

11 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

Do you honestly think he wouldn’t make those rosters, or are you speaking fanatically? Miami had Hill and Waddle and nobody else, 49ers have Samuel and Aiyuk and nobody else

He's speaking more in terms of usage I think

 

Dolphins ground game is prolific and Niners have McCaffrey and Kittle to feed, Davis probably wouldn't get target share to justify a deal either place

[Demongyz]

Eh, Simms wasn't a good player and he wasn't a #3.

[Beck Water]

On 10/20/2023 at 5:51 AM, Beast said:

Whoever is on the field more.

 

Eh.  From his rookie year, Gabe Davis was on the field 2nd most to Diggs and more than Beasley. But no way was Gabe Davis the #2 WR in 2020.  Beasley was the #2 in targets, receptions, and yards, and it wasn't close.  Gabe was out there to block downfield, and it wasn't close.

 

In 2021, Manny Sands had 2nd most snaps to Diggs and slightly edged Beasley out in yards per game (though Beasley had more targets and more receptions per game)

 

I don't think it's anything like so simple as "whoever is on the field more is the #2"