Simms: Gabe Davis is a good player, but he's not a number two

[oldmanfan]

37 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Agree and that’s why I set the bar there. That’s a darn good Tight End, but you’re not banking on peak Gronk/Kelce because it’s unrealistic. 

 

600-800 yards a year, is that good enough to be the #2 option? 
 

I think we just keep coming back to the same question, Gabe going to 170 yards in one game, to 20 yards the next game, the averages look good, but is it enough? 

 

Most likely we’ll have another round of Playoffs in 2023 to go with his 2022 performance as the sole #2, 2021

Sanders was out of gas by mid-season so that’s in the evaluation as well. 

True.  Those thinking a Kincaid might be as good as two first ballot HOF TEs set themselves up for disappointment 

[Beck Water]

23 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Agree and that’s why I set the bar there. That’s a darn good Tight End, but you’re not banking on peak Gronk/Kelce because it’s unrealistic. 

 

600-800 yards a year, is that good enough to be the #2 option? 
 

I think we just keep coming back to the same question, Gabe going to 170 yards in one game, to 20 yards the next game, the averages look good, but is it enough? 

 

Most likely we’ll have another round of Playoffs in 2023 to go with his 2022 performance as the sole #2, 2021

Sanders was out of gas by mid-season so that’s in the evaluation as well. 

 

This is a really good question.

 

For some context, in 2019, the Bills #2 in yards and targets was Cole Beasley, with 106 targets for 778 yards 8.4 Y/R, 34 1D

2020, Beasley again, 107 targets for 967 yards 11.8 Y/R, 58 1D

2021, Beasley 112 receptions, 693 yds, but less Y/R 7.8, and fewer 1D 34

 

I take some flak for this, but I feel (and Chris Simms seems to agree) that what the Bills offense needs is a reliable outlet on short and intermediate routes, who is almost always open and can get those 1Ds and keep the chains moving.  So on that question, is 600-800 yds a year enough? it depends on the yards.  If it's 6-8 yds consistently on 2nd and 10 to put us in 3rd and short, or 5 yards on 3rd and 4 to get the 1D - it's probably enough. 

 

If we have that AND the 900-ish yards Davis is on pace to generate, that will probably be enough.

 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

This is a really good question.

 

For some context, in 2019, the Bills #2 in yards and targets was Cole Beasley, with 106 targets for 778 yards 8.4 Y/R, 34 1D

2020, Beasley again, 107 targets for 967 yards 11.8 Y/R, 58 1D

2021, Beasley 112 receptions, 693 yds, but less Y/R 7.8, and fewer 1D 34

 

I take some flak for this, but I feel (and Chris Simms seems to agree) that what the Bills offense needs is a reliable outlet on short and intermediate routes, who is almost always open and can get those 1Ds and keep the chains moving.  So on that question, is 600-800 yds a year enough? it depends on the yards.  If it's 6-8 yds consistently on 2nd and 10 to put us in 3rd and short, or 5 yards on 3rd and 4 to get the 1D - it's probably enough. 

 

If we have that AND the 900-ish yards Davis is on pace to generate, that will probably be enough.

 

We need that person, Kincaid could certainly be that person, but will Josh consistently make the throw to that person?

[colin]

14 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

You'd have to ask Simms exactly what he means by that "too reliant on Diggs" thing.

 

Right now, Tyreek Hill has 59 targets and 814 yds for the Fins.  Waddle is trailing him with 35 targets and 296 yds.  Does that mean the Fins are "too reliant on Hill"?  I think it means Hill is their best receiver and is very difficult to shut down in the way they're using him.

 

While I stand by it that "#2 WR" has become the new "Franchise QB" around here, I do understand Simm's point.  Gabe racks up yards because he's used deep on lower percentage throws.  He doesn't seem to have the route-running chops and full route tree of a receiver like Waddle, who has been a #1 receiver in his time and who can happily take over the game and put up yards, if a team sets out to throttle down Hill.  I don't think any of us see Gabe as able to do that. ***

 

 

I think that last is correct, as is the "consistently" part.

 

Different teams fill needs in different ways, but again, it's a fact that the consistent chain mover as well as the #2 guy for targets and yards was Beasley, from 2019-2021.

 

***Edit: Davis has certainly taken over a handful of games - notably 1 playoff game per season (2020 Colts, 2021 KC, 2022 MIA).  He's also had a couple of 100 yd games, most recently 8 targets, 6 receptions against Jacksonville; 6 receptions for 93 yds against Minnesota in 2020; couple of 5 reception games against Tampa and Carolina in 2021.  Just to give the man his propers.  But those are like 4 games in 3 years.

 

 you bring up some good points, but i feel like we lose, or barely win, the games where davis breaks out.  if him doing better doesn't make our team results better, then i gotta think he's not making the team better.

[Einstein's Dog]

14 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

True.  Those thinking a Kincaid might be as good as two first ballot HOF TEs set themselves up for disappointment 

And those thinking that Kincaid has hit his ceiling are mistaken. 

So IMO, you use and develop Kincaid and Cook in the short passing game - this is better than last years McKenzie/Singletary duo.  You don't get a slot guy like Renfro, that would block the development of talented young players.  Kincaid and Cook are a big part of the foundation for our future.

 

You instead upgrade the WR2 if possible, where it looks like Gabe is what he is at this point.  If the FO can get a D Adams or Meyers or DHop or Thielen, this would be most beneficial this year and not block the development of our future.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

11 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

This is a really good question.

 

For some context, in 2019, the Bills #2 in yards and targets was Cole Beasley, with 106 targets for 778 yards 8.4 Y/R, 34 1D

2020, Beasley again, 107 targets for 967 yards 11.8 Y/R, 58 1D

2021, Beasley 112 receptions, 693 yds, but less Y/R 7.8, and fewer 1D 34

 

I take some flak for this, but I feel (and Chris Simms seems to agree) that what the Bills offense needs is a reliable outlet on short and intermediate routes, who is almost always open and can get those 1Ds and keep the chains moving.  So on that question, is 600-800 yds a year enough? it depends on the yards.  If it's 6-8 yds consistently on 2nd and 10 to put us in 3rd and short, or 5 yards on 3rd and 4 to get the 1D - it's probably enough. 

 

If we have that AND the 900-ish yards Davis is on pace to generate, that will probably be enough.

 

Thanks for this.

 

Allen is still a playmaker, so Diggs and Kincaid as the #1-#2 with no Gabe Davis, and the same Harty, Sherfield (I know he’s only on a one year deal) and Shakir leaves the team with next to no deep speed beyond Diggs, who has just enough to threaten the entire defense. 
 

Gabe also brings the only WR with size on the team. 
 

So good points all around. A steady, consistent 50-55 yards per game to work sustaining routes, seems achievable for Kincaid, but the Bills would be short an outside WR with deep capability without Gabe.

 

And I’m guessing we don’t want all our rocket armed QB to work nothing but underneath routes because all he has is Diggs. 

[oldmanfan]

9 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

And those thinking that Kincaid has hit his ceiling are mistaken. 

So IMO, you use and develop Kincaid and Cook in the short passing game - this is better than last years McKenzie/Singletary duo.  You don't get a slot guy like Renfro, that would block the development of talented young players.  Kincaid and Cook are a big part of the foundation for our future.

 

You instead upgrade the WR2 if possible, where it looks like Gabe is what he is at this point.  If the FO can get a D Adams or Meyers or DHop or Thielen, this would be most beneficial this year and not block the development of our future.

I think both Kincaid and Knox will have very good careers.  It really comes down to Josh spreading the ball around and Dorsey setting good route combos.  We saw how well it can work in the three blowout games this season.

[Einstein's Dog]

4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I think both Kincaid and Knox will have very good careers.  It really comes down to Josh spreading the ball around and Dorsey setting good route combos.  We saw how well it can work in the three blowout games this season.

I agree.  With our current personnel I would like to see more short, high percentage, passing to Cook/Kincaid and Knox.  You still have Diggs targeted a lot, and slightly reduce the number of targets to Gabe.   We've seen flashes that this could be potent.  I think McDemott was talking to this.

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I agree.  With our current personnel I would like to see more short, high percentage, passing to Cook/Kincaid and Knox.  You still have Diggs targeted a lot, and slightly reduce the number of targets to Gabe.   We've seen flashes that this could be potent.  I think McDemott was talking to this.

Yep.  Shorter route success would also open up the deeper routes for Gabe.  And Diggs will get his no matter what- he’s that good.

[Big Turk]

35 minutes ago, colin said:

 

 you bring up some good points, but i feel like we lose, or barely win, the games where davis breaks out.  if him doing better doesn't make our team results better, then i gotta think he's not making the team better.

 

The Steelers game from last year?

[Beck Water]

44 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Thanks for this.

 

Allen is still a playmaker, so Diggs and Kincaid as the #1-#2 with no Gabe Davis, and the same Harty, Sherfield (I know he’s only on a one year deal) and Shakir leaves the team with next to no deep speed beyond Diggs, who has just enough to threaten the entire defense. 
 

Gabe also brings the only WR with size on the team. 
 

So good points all around. A steady, consistent 50-55 yards per game to work sustaining routes, seems achievable for Kincaid, but the Bills would be short an outside WR with deep capability without Gabe.

 

And I’m guessing we don’t want all our rocket armed QB to work nothing but underneath routes because all he has is Diggs. 

 

Shakir did lay down a 4.43 40 time, which is pretty much the same as Diggs 4.46.  The difference for deep routes, IMHO, is that Shakir has those little 29"  Tyrannasaurus Rex arms vs. Diggs 31" arms and 10" hands.  The better to hold you off with, my dear. 

 

2" makes a difference when you're going deep (That's What She Said).

 

Beane's "sell" when we signed Harty was that he can track the ball on deep routes (McKenzie just couldn't track it very well) and has a complete route tree.  He's in the same speed range as Shakir and Diggs, but has even shorter arms than Shakir.  Maybe because he's only 5'6", the DB will struggle to reach down that far?  I keep asking whether Harty is getting open on his 10-15 snaps per game?  I hear he's our new "gadget guy" but I haven't seen him running those jet sweeps and reverses, and he looks slow when he's running routes - possibly because he's getting mugged by the DBs.

 

Anyway, they have "enough speed to threaten the entire defense", what they don't have is the superior deceptive and smooth route running that Diggs has, and the upper body arm length and strength to hold off hand-fighting DBs.

 

As far as size, keep in mind the Bills drafted Shorter in the 5th because of his 6'4" height and 33 3/4" arms (combined with a 35+" vertical and then doubled down by picking up Tyrell Shavers (another 6'4" guy) as an UDFA.  The hope is that one of them develops into that "big guy" for us

 

I do expect us to make 2 moves at WR next season - trying to sign a better FA, and trying to draft higher.  I was kind of grumpy about the Bills drafting Dorian Williams in the 3rd instead of a WR - Michael Wilson was there? but as it's turned out, might be just as well.

Edited October 19, 2023 by Beck Water

[Mango]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Agree on the Goedert standard

 

I don't really have an issue w Davis going up and down from game to game because that's kind of how the NFL works week to week

 

My thing w Davis has been his skillset is always going to be a limiting factor for this offense in his current capacity

To this I don’t think Davis is a problem here as much as the depth to our pass catchers. 
 

Davis is the whipping boy for a larger issue. He’ll have a long career. His family will be set for life. But he’ll never be the blue ribbon receiver for any team and that’s totally OK. 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, colin said:

 

 you bring up some good points, but i feel like we lose, or barely win, the games where davis breaks out.  if him doing better doesn't make our team results better, then i gotta think he's not making the team better.

 

Well, first off, I don't understand the "barely win".  What's a "barely win"?  I know that "barely lose" doesn't count.

 

Davis has helped us win playoff games - Indy in 2020, Miami in 2022, and while we lost 13 seconds in KC, that's really not on Davis, he did all he could possibly do.

He's been a significant part of a good handful of other regular season wins even if they weren't OMG 6 receptions for 113! contributions.  He did have a 6 reception for 93 yds game vs. Minn, and it wasn't his fault Josh threw 2 picks to Peterson, or started thinking about diving out of the EZ before he got both hands on the ball thus fumbled the snap, or that Cam Lewis didn't knock the ball away from Justin Jefferson on 4th and 18.

 

So I  don't think you can really make an argument for "him doing better doesn't make our team results better".  I mean, seriously?  It's a team game.

[colin]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

The Steelers game from last year?

 

true, but that was a walk away blow out.  im just saying, i think his production is from him being a JAG on a great O, and he doesn't make the guys around him better.

55 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Well, first off, I don't understand the "barely win".  What's a "barely win"?  I know that "barely lose" doesn't count.

 

Davis has helped us win playoff games - Indy in 2020, Miami in 2022, and while we lost 13 seconds in KC, that's really not on Davis, he did all he could possibly do.

He's been a significant part of a good handful of other regular season wins even if they weren't OMG 6 receptions for 113! contributions.  He did have a 6 reception for 93 yds game vs. Minn, and it wasn't his fault Josh threw 2 picks to Peterson, or started thinking about diving out of the EZ before he got both hands on the ball thus fumbled the snap, or that Cam Lewis didn't knock the ball away from Justin Jefferson on 4th and 18.

 

So I  don't think you can really make an argument for "him doing better doesn't make our team results better".  I mean, seriously?  It's a team game.

 

 

said another way: he's not a real difference maker, he's just better than what else we have at that position behind him.

[Beck Water]

24 minutes ago, colin said:

 

true, but that was a walk away blow out.  im just saying, i think his production is from him being a JAG on a great O, and he doesn't make the guys around him better.

 

 

said another way: he's not a real difference maker, he's just better than what else we have at that position behind him.

 

*sigh* this begs the question "what is a real difference maker"?  It sounds like the kissing cousin to the question "what do you mean by #2 WR?"

 

Previously we were at "if him doing better doesn't make our team results better, then I gotta think he's not making the team better".  Well, he is, clearly, making the Bills team better and has made the Bills team better since he was drafted in the 4th round.

 

But if we're now talking "real difference maker" as in "guy who can totally take over the game if you manage to shut down the #1", we're now into "I'll take teams with two number one receivers, Alex" and the answer "What are Miami, Cincy, Philly, and San Francisco?"

 

If we want to say Gabe Davis isn't Jaylen Waddle, Tee Higgins,  Devonta Smith, or Deebo Samuel - well, No.  No, on  the evidence to date, he's not.  Fair enough. 

 

He wasn't drafted in the 1st or 2nd round, either.

 

The Bills are trying to get WR Champagne on a Beer Budget, is part of the issue.

 

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

We need that person, Kincaid could certainly be that person, but will Josh consistently make the throw to that person?

 

That, is a very good question.

Edited October 19, 2023 by Beck Water

[PBF81]

6 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Are you saying Gabe Davis is as good as Deebo Samuel?

 

No.  Does it read that way?   Is this an either/or thing?  Or do you think that there's more to the analysis?

 

But Samuel's more like the WR2 that some are crying for.  

 

Do you think that it's irrelevant that Davis has nearly twice the TDs in fewer games played?  

 

 

[3rdand12]

22 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

*sigh* this begs the question "what is a real difference maker"?  It sounds like the kissing cousin to the question "what do you mean by #2 WR?"

 

Previously we were at "if him doing better doesn't make our team results better, then I gotta think he's not making the team better".  Well, he is, clearly, making the Bills team better and has made the Bills team better since he was drafted in the 4th round.

 

But if we're now talking "real difference maker" as in "guy who can totally take over the game if you manage to shut down the #1", we're now into "I'll take teams with two number one receivers, Alex" and the answer "What are Miami, Cincy, Philly, and San Francisco?"

 

If we want to say Gabe Davis isn't Jaylen Waddle, Tee Higgins,  Devonta Smith, or Deebo Samuel - well, No.  No, on  the evidence to date, he's not.  Fair enough. 

 

He wasn't drafted in the 1st or 2nd round, either.

 

The Bills are trying to get WR Champagne on a Beer Budget, is part of the issue.

On a slightly different perspective.

 I think McBeanes and Dorsey need to better plan how to use the types of talent and skill sets they brought in.

 Seems to be a slight disconnect there.

 the rotation at RB seemed to be a real asset for a game or two in the run game. Lets get the pass catcher doing what they do best. Davis has a skill set that might be better served, if we involve the others. Allowing the offense to dictate a bit more.

 I feel a good few passes are forced plays , by Allen and Ken , when they may need to look at the third or fourth check to find the soft spots.

 Keep poking around till they find it.

 

Since they have a run game available now, defenses should have to play a tad more honestly in the pass game. And we have seen that with some nice one on ones running routes.

Davis has a role. We just need to get everyone more involved to create the proper match ups,

and then see them Post Snap.

 

Edited October 19, 2023 by 3rdand12

[GoBills808]

18 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

No.  Does it read that way?   Is this an either/or thing?  Or do you think that there's more to the analysis?

 

But Samuel's more like the WR2 that some are crying for.  

 

Do you think that it's irrelevant that Davis has nearly twice the TDs in fewer games played?  

 

 

Here is my take on the further analysis

 

I do not think it's particularly relevant Davis has a bunch of TDs just like I didn't find it a compelling argument that Knox was a guy to pay because he had a year or so of catching a lot of touchdowns. The reason being that this offense under Allen is a touchdown machine and somebody has to catch them...guys are going to score catching passes here, it's inevitable and it doesn't speak to their ability so much as opportunity.

 

What I find striking is the amount of people wringing their hands over the Dorsey and the offense's 'inconsistency' who can't make the connection between that and having guys like Davis and Knox as 2nd and 3rd target shares. I already made this point but if you look at Miami's offense, they deal w a similar amount of variance in their scoring output because their QB is inherently limited. Imo a top3 scoring offense featuring Davis and Knox in their current roles is about as close to maximizing our personnel as can possibly be asked for.

[PBF81]

5 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

My thoughts are I would take Samuel over Davis in a heartbeat.

 

Yes, I understand that's what a lot of peoples' thoughts are.  

 

Mine are to consider a number of other factors before rushing into a decision like that, and file under be careful what you wish for, you may get it. 

 

That's not to say that Samuel might not be better.  It is to say that IMO it's a bit more complicated than that for reasons that I've already hinted at or outright mentioned.  

 

 

5 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

His per game stats are roughly similar to Davis. Samuel missed more than 3/4 of the last game as he left with a shoulder injury in the first quarter.  So your overall stats you are showing are skewed.

 

"My stats", really simply the stats, were on a per-game basis over the course of a career.  5th season for Samuel, 4th for Davis.  So not quite sure why you say that.  

 

Gabe makes more big plays, that much should be obvious.  

 

I have a hunch that if we did get a "WR2" here that did run more routes, etc., but didn't put up those big plays, everyone would be all over him too for not making enough big plays.  

 

 

5 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

As good as Purdy has been, he isn't Allen. 49ers also have more weapons, spread the ball around more, and have a good running game to boot.  So its not an apples to apples comparison you are making here. Furthermore, (a) Samuel runs a full route tree and not just sprints, (b) he has way more YAC, and (c) he is better at contested catches. You can't show everything with stats. 

 

I would argue the "more weapons" for SF although that's not particularly relevant.  What is relevant is how would Samuel be in our offense?   The short answer is that we don't know.  
 

Keep in mind, we can't use Kincaid effectively.  What makes you think that this staff is going to use a WR like Samuel to his capabilities?  (which are different than Gabe's, which shouldn't get lost in the discussion)  

 

I'm far from convinced that we would reap the full benefits of a WR like Samuel opposite Diggs.  Consider Hines last season.  He was among the best receiving RBs in the league when he was in Indy.  Here, ... nada.  They talked about it as they traded for him, but never got it done.  It's hardly that we didn't need it or couldn't have used it.  

 

And how would Samuel do on a team that doesn't typically rely on a pocket, like SF does, and with the lesser running game that you mention?  

 

A lot of people put blame on Gabe's shoulders, but it really should be on the coaching staff, but they cannot bring themselves to see that.  

 

Again, there's some cart/horse stuff involved here.  
 

 

[PBF81]

27 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Here is my take on the further analysis

 

I do not think it's particularly relevant Davis has a bunch of TDs just like I didn't find it a compelling argument that Knox was a guy to pay because he had a year or so of catching a lot of touchdowns. The reason being that this offense under Allen is a touchdown machine and somebody has to catch them...guys are going to score catching passes here, it's inevitable and it doesn't speak to their ability so much as opportunity.

 

What I find striking is the amount of people wringing their hands over the Dorsey and the offense's 'inconsistency' who can't make the connection between that and having guys like Davis and Knox as 2nd and 3rd target shares. I already made this point but if you look at Miami's offense, they deal w a similar amount of variance in their scoring output because their QB is inherently limited. Imo a top3 scoring offense featuring Davis and Knox in their current roles is about as close to maximizing our personnel as can possibly be asked for.

 

No doubt.  We obviously disagree as to the extent that coaching is implicated.  

 

As sunshynman just said, there are far too many times where multiple receivers are in the same exact spot or other such issues, that have nothing to do with the WR-ing talent.  Among other issues that are not directly related to the talent.  

 

Also, If they cannot take a proven good-hands and excellent route-running talent like Kincaid, and get a little bit more than what's presently pacing for 334 yards, 0 TDs, a dozen 1st-Downs, all on fewer than 7 Yards-per-Catch, it's a tough battle claiming that coaching isn't the biggest reason for that ridiculous output.  I think most people here will be stunned if Kincaid doesn't put up at least what Knox did last season.  

 

And at the very minimum then, start holding Beane accountable for drafts that force us to go the free-agency route.