Simms: Gabe Davis is a good player, but he's not a number two

[Scott7975]

18 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I'm having trouble parsing this sentence.  Could you try to break it up into smaller pieces and say it differently?

 

What he is trying to say is Davis is route limited because Dorsey wants him to be route limited by design. Huge stretch IMO.

[Big Turk]

20 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Yeah, I am so sure that the Dorsey developed an offense that one WR has two routes that he runs almost all the time.  Come on man.

 

You don't really seem to know much of anything to tell the truth based on this conversation and are making giant leaps to conclusions that you have no basis for defending other than "it must be this".  OK, based on WHAT exactly that is factual and not some random opinion of yours?

Just now, Scott7975 said:

 

What he is trying to say is Davis is route limited because Dorsey wants him to be route limited by design. Huge stretch IMO.

 

Players have roles on teams, how is it a stretch?  

[Julio Hopkins]

This offense is the most talented is has been throughout Micky D's tenure.  Without a doubt the best running back, offensive line, and tight end group.  The Diggs, Mckenzie, Davis, and Beasley receiver group might be the only one that's better.  

 

Dorsey is failing.  Miserably.  

 

 

[Scott7975]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

You don't really seem to know much of anything to tell the truth based on this conversation and are making giant leaps to conclusions that you have no basis for defending other than "it must be this".  OK, based on WHAT exactly that is factual and not some random opinion of yours?

 

It's a bigger leap on your part to try and say that Davis is route limited by design.  If that's the case then Dorsey is a problem. And to tell the truth you tried to compare Davis to Samuel lol.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

16 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

ps I wish Simms would grow some eyebrows.

Is he angry, happy? It’s impossible to know 

[EasternOHBillsFan]

4 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

It's a bigger leap on your part to try and say that Davis is route limited by design.  If that's the case then Dorsey is a problem. And to tell the truth you tried to compare Davis to Samuel lol.

 

That wasn't him comparing him to Samuel... that was PBF81.

Edited October 19, 2023 by EasternOHBillsFan

[Big Turk]

8 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

It's a bigger leap on your part to try and say that Davis is route limited by design.  If that's the case then Dorsey is a problem. And to tell the truth you tried to compare Davis to Samuel lol.

 

Uhh...in no place did I ever compare Davis to Samuel. 

 

Davis seems to be running the same routes that John Brown ran in this offense before he got here...deep overs/crossers, go routes and comebacks.

 

Same way Kincaid is running mostly the same routes that Beasley was running...choice routes and being the dump off guy for Allen in the slot.

 

And Harty is running most of the same type of routes that McKenzie is running and is the "gadget" guy. 

 

Seems like there are pre-defined roles for each receiver in this offense and what is being asked of them.

 

Not sure why this would not be the case in other offenses too...the route concepts being ran are the route concepts being ran.

Edited October 19, 2023 by Big Turk

[Beck Water]

33 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I mean is it really that much more idiotic than suggesting Davis is a comparable player to Samuel?

 

Well...No

 

Although they're different. 

 

At least one is a football take, albeit a wrong-headed one to anyone who has watched both guys play

 

The other just seems ugly - venomous and spiteful as well as not matching this season's performance so far for Gabe

Edited October 19, 2023 by Beck Water

[Straight Hucklebuck]

16 hours ago, Warcodered said:

Simms has basically been saying Josh needs more help all offseason.

There is a reason the Bills are never at the top of skill talent rankings.

 

Diggs keeps the Bills tethered in the top half of the league, but why is it so outlandish to say that Gabe is alright, and beyond him there isn’t one young player with high upside. 
 

Kincaid is the wild card here because we don’t know his ceiling yet. But even if he’s Dallas Goedert (Top 8, but not Top 1-2), is that good enough to be your second option? 

 

But Gabe is up after this year. Put up the poll on who would re-sign him to $20M/year to stay locked in as the #2.

 

Also, Diggs is now 30 and his cap hit will continue to increase. Even the most ardent Gabe supporters would admit he is not a #1, so what is your plan on that front? Run Diggs until the wheels fall off, have a first round WR to start phasing in? So far there has been 0 Diggs decline, so maybe you’re in good shape for 3 more years, and you can keep the current Diggs-Davis 1-2 for 3 more years. 

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

There is a reason the Bills are never at the top of skill talent rankings.

 

Diggs keeps the Bills tethered in the top half of the league, but why is it so outlandish to say that Gabe is alright, and beyond him there isn’t one young player with high upside. 
 

Kincaid is the wild card here because we don’t know his ceiling yet. But even if he’s Dallas Goedert (Top 8, but not Top 1-2), is that good enough to be your second option? 

 

But Gabe is up after this year. Put up the poll on who would re-sign him to $20M/year to stay locked in as the #2.

 

Also, Diggs is now 30 and his cap hit will continue to increase. Even the most ardent Gabe supporters would admit he is not a #1, so what is your plan on that front? Run Diggs until the wheels fall off, have a first round WR to start phasing in? So far there has been 0 Diggs decline, so maybe you’re in good shape for 3 more years, and you can keep the current Diggs-Davis 1-2 for 3 more years. 

Kincaid turning into Goedert would be a great outcome 

[Mr. WEO]

Two words: Taysom Hill

[Scott7975]

40 minutes ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

That wasn't him comparing him to Samuel... that was PBF81.

 

Woops my bad

[GoBills808]

33 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Well...No

 

Although they're different. 

 

At least one is a football take, albeit a wrong-headed one to anyone who has watched both guys play

 

The other just seems ugly - venomous and spiteful as well as not matching this season's performance so far for Gabe

I agree 👍

We can be critical w out being nasty

[Scott7975]

40 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Uhh...in no place did I ever compare Davis to Samuel. 

 

Davis seems to be running the same routes that John Brown ran in this offense before he got here...deep overs/crossers, go routes and comebacks.

 

Same way Kincaid is running mostly the same routes that Beasley was running...choice routes and being the dump off guy for Allen in the slot.

 

And Harty is running most of the same type of routes that McKenzie is running and is the "gadget" guy. 

 

Seems like there are pre-defined roles for each receiver in this offense and what is being asked of them.

 

Not sure why this would not be the case in other offenses too...the route concepts being ran are the route concepts being ran.

 

Im tired and been up since yesterday morning so I am not going to respond to this yet but I did want to take the time to apologize that I got you mixed up with another poster on that Samuel bit.  Sorry about that.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

22 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Kincaid turning into Goedert would be a great outcome 

Agree and that’s why I set the bar there. That’s a darn good Tight End, but you’re not banking on peak Gronk/Kelce because it’s unrealistic. 

 

600-800 yards a year, is that good enough to be the #2 option? 
 

I think we just keep coming back to the same question, Gabe going to 170 yards in one game, to 20 yards the next game, the averages look good, but is it enough? 

 

Most likely we’ll have another round of Playoffs in 2023 to go with his 2022 performance as the sole #2, 2021

Sanders was out of gas by mid-season so that’s in the evaluation as well. 

Edited October 19, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[folz]

16 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

But if we just look at “stats “, we also have to look deeper into the full picture 

 

How many targets he gets? And from that what’s his catch percentage? Drops? Contested catch rate? QB rating when targeting him?

 

Those numbers ^ were horrible for Gabe last year, and I’m guessing they aren’t great this year. (Maybe QB rating is ok as of this point)

 

2023

 

Gabe is currently 27th in receiving yards for all WRs with 341 and he has 4 TDs (good for a 3rd place tie)

 

And yet, he is only 53rd in targets. 52 wide receivers have been targeted more than Gabe (yet only 26 of those have more yards than him).

 

Only 3 players have more TDs than Gabe (Tyreek, Stefon, and D.J. Moore)

 

He has 21 receptions on 30 targets, good for a catch percentage of 70%.

 

He has 2 drops (tied with 27 other receivers). Nine players have more than 2 drops. So, 35 other receivers have the same number or more drops than Gabe.

 

The deeper, full picture still looks pretty damn good. Still low-end #1 stats, as opposed to #2 or #3 (as some suggest).

 

 

 

14 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

It's like how a lot of Bills fans thought we made a mistake letting Isaiah Hodgins go last year because he had decent production for the Giants. How's that looking now? Targets and catches have to go somewhere. The #2 passing target in one of the most high volume passing offenses in the league with an elite QB is ALWAYS going to get 800-900 yards. Pointing to Davis's pure volume numbers is a crutch for people who want to avoid talking about his actual capabilities as a player.

 

I hear this over and over when it comes to Gabe, the "high volume passing offense" and "Josh" excuse. First of all, yes, any WR that has an elite QB is going to be better than he would be with an average QB...you can't hold that against the WR. But how true is this "high volume passing game" theory?

 

Well, to this point in the 2023 season, 12 teams have thrown the ball more than the Bills and 6 teams have more passing yards than the Bills. So, we definitely are not far outpacing everyone in someway in pass attempts or passing yards.

 

Of those 14 total teams with either more pass attempts, more passing yards, or both, how many of their #2 wide receivers have better stats than Gabe?

 

None, really...I would say two ties (see below), but those three are better than all of the rest currently:

 

Calvin Ridley 363 yards and 2 TDs (but on 44 targets) [I have Ridley as a #2 because Kirk has more targets/yards than he does]

Gabe Davis 341 yards and 4 TDs (on 30 targets)

Josh Reynolds 341 yards and 3 TDs (on 27 targets)

 

And before you say the #2s on those 14 teams maybe aren't that good, here are some of the names of the number twos on higher passing teams that Gabe is still currently outperforming stat-wise (Tee Higgins, Jaylen Waddle, Devontae Smith, Michael Thomas, Tank Dell/Robert Woods, Josh Downs, Jahan Dotson/Curtis Samuel, Bourne/Smith-Shuster/Parker, Toney/Moore/Valdez-Scantling, D.J. Chark, Addison).

 

And as far as QBs, they aren't all elite, but they aren't bottom of the barrel either. QBs for the 14 (current) higher-volume passing teams:

Mahomes, Burrow, Stafford, Lawrence, Hurts, Tua, Goff, Cousins, Carr, Stroud, Howell, Richardson/Minschew, Young, Jones.

 

So, can't say that I buy the "High-volume passing offense" excuse when the Bills aren't even in the top 10 for pass attempts and Gabe is only the 53rd most-targeted WR, yet he's 27th in yards, tied for 3rd in TDs, and is outperforming most other #2s on fewer targets.

 

 

 

 

 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Agree and that’s why I set the bar there. That’s a darn good Tight End, but you’re not banking on peak Gronk/Kelce because it’s unrealistic. 

 

600-800 yards a year, is that good enough to be the #2 option? 
 

I think we just keep coming back to the same question, Gabe going to 170 yards in one game, to 20 yards the next game, the averages look good, but is it enough? 

 

Most likely we’ll have another round of Playoffs in 2023 to go with his 2022 performance as the sole #2, 2021

Sanders was out of gas by mid-season so that’s in the evaluation as well. 

Agree on the Goedert standard

 

I don't really have an issue w Davis going up and down from game to game because that's kind of how the NFL works week to week

 

My thing w Davis has been his skillset is always going to be a limiting factor for this offense in his current capacity

[newcam2012]

4 hours ago, SWATeam said:

bUt iTs nOt aBOUt tHE nUMBers!!!

 

We need someone to run the whole route tree!  (then we'd be bitching about not having a deep threat)

The numbers are good because of Allen not Davis. You can literally plug in any JAG WR that will put up those numbers. 

[Beck Water]

29 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

What he is trying to say is Davis is route limited because Dorsey wants him to be route limited by design. Huge stretch IMO.

 

29 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Players have roles on teams, how is it a stretch?  

 

The best WR can run all the routes and are flexible in roles, at least to some extent.  Jefferson had a monster season last year because the Vikes were using him all over the field.  Diggs is getting a large target share this season in part because the Bills are using him all over the field - in the slot, on short option routes, deep, on screens (i would have to say perhaps, following his blockers is not Diggs best skill) etc.

 

So when McDermott stands up and says in a presser, something to the effect that we have to know what players do best and put them in that position, on the one hand, he's right.  If following blockers isn't Diggs thing but Sherfield can do it, maybe don't use Diggs on screens.  Design for a player's strengths.  On the other hand, he's being a scootch disingenuous.  As a DC, McDermott knows well that if you've got a player who has a limited route vocabulary and is only likely to be targeted on, say, 2 of those routes, it's called "making my job easier".

 

I wish all-22 was fixed in the US so I could go through it play by play or that I could get my hands on the Euro version (if anyone knows how, hit me), because when I try to go off my impression from memory of TV broadcasts, I can be flat out wrong.  But my impression is that Dorsey does have (or at least started out the season) having Davis trying to run some shorter routes, curls and comebacks and slants and digs - and Davis just does not get open reliably on those.  He lacks that sudden quickness and deception that Diggs has.  And it's my impression that Allen and Davis have become a bit too predictable, there's too much film of certain route combinations and game situations where Allen will throw to Davis regardless - and guys in coverage know it and are prepared to jump those routes, resulting in picks or deflections.

 

Anyway, there's some truth to saying that players have roles on teams, but there's also some truth that professional NFL receivers need to be able to do more than one or two things or they will get "solved".  McKenzie's gadget reverses and jet sweeps became less effective as 2019 went on because DCs would see him and say "we know what's coming".   So the Bills started using him on slants and shallow crossers and flats, and that helped make the gadget plays more effective again.

[billsfan89]

Davis could be your WR2 if you have a really good slot presence like 2019-2020 Cole Beasley. The issue is the Bills do not have that short to mid range consistent threat.