Week 7 Bills @ Patriots - on to Foxborough!

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, billsfan89 said:

Bills are banged up for sure. Dane and Knox will likely be managing those injuries all season. Could really use a bye week sooner rather than later but hopefully the Bills can just manage things for now and maybe add a piece or two at the trade deadline 

 

This week will be tough with 2 games in 4 days with the Pats and Bucs. But after Tampa the Bills don't play again for 10 days until SNF vs the Bengals

[Mango]

3 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

Bills are banged up for sure. Dane and Knox will likely be managing those injuries all season. Could really use a bye week sooner rather than later but hopefully the Bills can just manage things for now and maybe add a piece or two at the trade deadline 

 

Tre and Milano aside, I think the Bills have had a knack for getting banged up down the stretch. There might be some positive to the Bills getting a little banged up in weeks 4, 5, 6. Resting. Then getting healthy and hot in the winter before playoff time. 

[Beck Water]

15 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I think it's part of Dorsey's job to extract more out of the players we have. But I also think we've done the Diggs-Davis-scrub WR routine in 2022 and now into 2023 and we're seeing largely the same results. A Diggs centric passing game, with occasional spikes from Davis, and everyone else is sporadic (although I do still like Shakir). 

 

Baring a trade, the only potential to be different is how good Kincaid can be, and be utilized. 

But can Dorsey extract 30-33 ppg from this offense? Is 28 ppg "enough"? Or is the main goal to shrink the outlier games? 

 

FWIW, Shakir has seen steadily increasing snaps through this season.  From 10% game 1, up to 32% vs Jags and 39% vs. Giants.

That could just mean Kincaid is out, or it could mean the coaches are seeing positive developments for him in practice.  But, his targets are not changing (1 per game)

 

Kincaid, after 80% game one, has been holding steady at 50%.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:

This is an excellent point and very true. 

 

This is why I push back on Erik Turner on Cover 1 when he says Dorsey needs to spread the ball out more, that other people need specific schemes for them. 

 

It’s easy to say, just throw it to Harty more. But his size and playing time (determined by the coaches) will limit how consistent that can be. Do I want Dorsey racking his brain on how to get Harty more involved, how to maximize a 6-yard crossing route at the expense of targets to Diggs?

 

Shakir is getting 15-20 snaps a game, I think he’s underutilized, but that means Gabe or Diggs, Knox/Kincaid (when he takes a breather) needs to come off the field more. 

 

Should be pushing Knox to be like he used to be (Patriots game years ago) with long throws?

 

I guess I come away from these games concluding Allen to Diggs just works. He takes Dorsey’s scheme and regardless if multiple Bills players are standing in the same spot) or teams double him he produces.

 

The problem of course is the Playoffs, and we know Diggs alone can’t carry the passing offense, just as Rodgers-Adams couldn’t.

 

So focus on Kincaid and Gabe Davis. How can those two be utilized better? 
 

Those two need more production if the offense is going to balance, but it’s not going to be as effective as regular season Diggs. 

[Mango]

2 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

This week will be tough with 2 games in 4 days with the Pats and Bucs. But after Tampa the Bills don't play again for 10 days until SNF vs the Bengals

 

Would not be shocked if the Bills taped some guys up to ensure a conference/divisional win for any seeding/tie breaker advantages. But then sat those guys against TB. 

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

Just now, Mango said:

 

They are currently number 3 in the league, so at scale 28.8 points is enough to be one of the best scoring offenses in the league. They will struggle some more, they will boom some more and likely finish around 30 points and in the top 5. 

The current frustration feels like the same frustrations others have had for 3, 4, 5 years coming home to roost. That is that this offense never ever seems to make it look easy and are/have been inconsistent. We never get our TE's involved, we rarely throw to our receiving backs, we are better than everybody at 3rd and long, but we keep getting ourselves in 3rd and long because we take too many low percentage chances. Even the Diggs targets have been high since he got here, he has gone 166, 164, and 154 targets since he got here. 

This has been the gist of our offense for years. it is time for it to take the next step. Part of that is the OC. But part is also player execution. 

To be fair the problem is consistency not that we seldom make it look easy.  Go back through the last three and a half seasons and there are plenty of games where the Bills offense went up and down the field.

 

Also, we end up in 3rd and long not so much because of taking to many "low percentage chances" on 1st & 2nd down.  My observations are that we lose yards on way to many 1st & 2nd down run plays and that penalties also put us into 3rd and long a lot. It seems like among the playoff contending teams the Bills have a lot of run plays that lose yardage.

 

[PatsFanNH]

1 hour ago, Patrick Duffy said:

 

Obviously never know how these things eventually turn out, but he is an interesting one to me and I just get the feeling he could be a good HC, especially if he can be in a situation to have something to work with or build upon

 

It LOOKS like he would have a top 5 pick to work with along with like a 100 million in cap space.  So he have the ability to do a lot of changes in year 1. 

[Gregg]

Just now, Mango said:

 

Would not be shocked if the Bills taped some guys up to ensure a conference/divisional win for any seeding/tie breaker advantages. But then sat those guys against TB. 

 

 

 

I can't see them sitting anyone vs Tampa. The Bills need to stack as many wins as possible. The schedule will get a lot harder pretty soon. 

[CincyBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

This is why I push back on Erik Turner on Cover 1 when he says Dorsey needs to spread the ball out more, that other people need specific schemes for them. 

 

It’s easy to say, just throw it to Harty more. But his size and playing time (determined by the coaches) will limit how consistent that can be. Do I want Dorsey racking his brain on how to get Harty more involved, how to maximize a 6-yard crossing route at the expense of targets to Diggs?

 

Shakir is getting 15-20 snaps a game, I think he’s underutilized, but that means Gabe or Diggs, Knox/Kincaid (when he takes a breather) needs to come off the field more. 

 

Should be pushing Knox to be like he used to be (Patriots game years ago) with long throws?

 

I guess I come away from these games concluding Allen to Diggs just works. He takes Dorsey’s scheme and regardless if multiple Bills players are standing in the same spot) or teams double him he produces.

 

The problem of course is the Playoffs, and we know Diggs alone can’t carry the passing offense, just as Rodgers-Adams couldn’t.

 

So focus on Kincaid and Gabe Davis. How can those two be utilized better? 
 

Those two need more production if the offense is going to balance, but it’s not going to be as effective as regular season Diggs. 

Agree.  Down here in Cincinnati they had Burrow target Chase even more to the exclusion of the other receivers and the Bengal's offense has finally shown some life.  And remember the Rams 2021 Super Bowl champs and how they targeted Cooper Kupp.

 

The issue I'm seeing with Harty is that he was given plenty of targets through the first couple of weeks and I never saw him break a tackle or juke a guy out. He went down easily on first contact.  It wasn't until the Miami game that he made that catch and eluded the tackler for the 1st down.

 

As for Shakir, he's dropped a couple of passes that leave me and I;m sure Allen/Dorsey frustrated.  One was that incredible pass at the end of the 1st half against Miami and another was against Washington when Allen could have ran for 15 yards and a 1st down but instead threw it to Shakir who flat out dropped it.

 

So our best hope remains Kincaid & Shakir.  They need to involve Kincaid more down field and if Shakir can stop the drops he could really boost the Bills downfield passing game.

 

BTW, Davis is fine in that he is making big catches downfield and he is catching TD passes. We're just going to have to live with the occasional drop and the fact that he doesn't execute certain patterns well.

 

 

 

 

 

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, FrenchConnection said:

When Uncle Rico is your starting QB, you’re going to hand the ball off a LOT.

When "Uncle Rico" is your QB, you're going to pass the ball 40 to 50 times a game? 

[Big Turk]

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

23 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

They are currently number 3 in the league, so at scale 28.8 points is enough to be one of the best scoring offenses in the league. They will struggle some more, they will boom some more and likely finish around 30 points and in the top 5. 

The current frustration feels like the same frustrations others have had for 3, 4, 5 years coming home to roost. That is that this offense never ever seems to make it look easy and are/have been inconsistent. We never get our TE's involved, we rarely throw to our receiving backs, we are better than everybody at 3rd and long, but we keep getting ourselves in 3rd and long because we take too many low percentage chances. Even the Diggs targets have been high since he got here, he has gone 166, 164, and 154 targets since he got here. 

This has been the gist of our offense for years. it is time for it to take the next step. Part of that is the OC. But part is also player execution. 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/buf/table/receiving/sort/receivingTargets/dir/desc

 

In your mind do the Diggs targets need to change (either direction), stay the same? 

 

And who, needs more? Less?

 

I guess you could pair this with snap counts. 

 

A variable here is also the run game. I do think the 2023 Bills offensive line is better than the 2022 offensive line, and I do think the combination of Cook-Murray is better than Singletary-Cook, so a lof has been made of the getting under Center more and running less Shotgun draw plays. 

 

Is the run game the Bills second best pitch? And is that a development path/curveball to throw at teams? 

 

I guess my goal would be to have a solid #2 offensive option come Playoff time, because in 2020 we saw that our weapons weren't as dynamic as prime Mahomes-Kelce-Hill, 2021 we thought Gabe was ready for his breakout, 2022 we learned the line was bad and we had to call John Brown and Cole Beasley back, and in 2023 maybe it's if you have to live with Gabe going up and down, then who keeps games afloat outside of Diggs? 

[Patrick Duffy]

6 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

It LOOKS like he would have a top 5 pick to work with along with like a 100 million in cap space.  So he have the ability to do a lot of changes in year 1. 

 

 (If you're using Pats as the example here) ...Well the amount of changes would depend on any changes Kraft decides are needed, the GM for example and final say on certain decisions.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

7 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Happy to see Spencer Brown not seriously injured. 

 

Felt bad for him getting shoved from behind and pushed down on a cheap shot. 

 

His cleat looked like it stuck in the ground and caused the twisted knee. 

[Beck Water]

39 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

This is why I push back on Erik Turner on Cover 1 when he says Dorsey needs to spread the ball out more, that other people need specific schemes for them. 

 

I thought @HoofHearted made a persuasive case for, in the first half, there were guys besides Diggs who were open.  There were a handful of execution errors (and/or uncalled penalties), but there were a significant number of plays - almost as many as there were completions - where Josh had a different choice available to him and didn't take it.

 

I do think, and I may be wrong, that other than Diggs our current receivers struggle to get open vs. man., and also that Dorsey likes plays that incorporate routes that work against different coverages - which is great, except when the guy who should be available isn't.  Now traditionally teams haven't manned us up too much, but that was partly because if they tried, Josh killed them.  If that's changed with the loss of Brown, Beasley, Sanders etc - We Better Have a Plan, and that Plan is Scheme.

 

39 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

It’s easy to say, just throw it to Harty more. But his size and playing time (determined by the coaches) will limit how consistent that can be. Do I want Dorsey racking his brain on how to get Harty more involved, how to maximize a 6-yard crossing route at the expense of targets to Diggs?

 

Shakir is getting 15-20 snaps a game, I think he’s underutilized, but that means Gabe or Diggs, Knox/Kincaid (when he takes a breather) needs to come off the field more.

 

It's not so much the snap counts that need to change, it's the utilization. 

Kincaid has only been on the field 50% of the snaps of recent games.  Knox, 60-76%.  If Knox is going to drop 16% of his damned targets, then he needs to be targeted less. 

 

Shakir had 16, 19, and 24 snaps the last 3 games.  He had 1 target per game each game and 2 receptions/3 targets overall.  The question is why?  Is he consistently running the right route?  Is he getting open at the right time in the progressions?  If the answers are yes (and I think, if they were no, his playing time would drop instead of increase) then why isn't he getting targeted vs. a doubled or tripled Diggs?  If the answer is "Josh doesn't trust him" as Wood implied, then Josh needs to Get Over It or if there's a reason for mistrust, it needs to be addressed.  If the answer to the "getting open" is "no", then either he needs plays that scheme him open, or he needs to sit down and give some of his snaps to someone else. 

 

Similar thing with Sherfield and Harty.  It's not that the usage has to change that dramatically, but Harty is getting 10-15 snaps per game and being targeted once or twice.

 

As far as "do we want Dorsey racking his brain on how to get them more involved?" the answer IMO is "yes",because we need answers in the quick outlet passing game.  If they're good at what they're being asked to do and they're getting open, why aren't they being targeted?   If they're not good at what they're being asked to do, then either plays need to be changed, or they need to sit down and give way to someone who can get it done, and whom Josh will trust to get it done.

 

And if that someone isn't in the roster, but he's available for trade somewhere in the league, Beane needs to get 'er done.

Edited October 18, 2023 by Beck Water

[K-9]

43 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

This week will be tough with 2 games in 4 days with the Pats and Bucs. But after Tampa the Bills don't play again for 10 days until SNF vs the Bengals

Thursday night football is an abomination that shows contempt for the players.

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, Simon said:

 

They've really got to be careful of leaning on him too much with DQ Jones out.

He was on the field Sunday more than I have ever seen him and if he starts getting nicked up, his play is going to suffer.

Totally. He didn't register a tackle or an assist vs the Giants, and I have to wonder if that's a product of extreme overuse. He played close to 90 percent of the snaps, which is too much for a DT.

Edited October 18, 2023 by dave mcbride

[Warcodered]

 

Happy Birthday you're now head injury free.

[Beck Water]

21 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/buf/table/receiving/sort/receivingTargets/dir/desc

 

In your mind do the Diggs targets need to change (either direction), stay the same? 

 

And who, needs more? Less?

 

Fair question, though it's kind of meaningless to answer in the abstract.

 

I would say Knox targets need to decrease by 1-2 per game until/unless his wrist heals and he fixes the dropsies.

Kincaid needs more looks.

 

Other than that, what I think we're seeing is Josh extending plays waiting for Gabe or Diggs to uncover, and sometimes forcing the ball  into them and missing resulting in 2nd and 10, 3rd and 10.  I think it would help a lot if he would take the open option be that Shakir, Kincaid, Cook.

 

I think that means 1-2 less targets a game for Diggs and Davis (lets say 2 for Diggs, and 1-2 for Davis), going to Cook, Kincaid and Shakir.

 

I don't think that would change the receptions Diggs and Davis have very much because while those balls are counted as targets to them, these are often the balls that Josh is overthrowing or dirting.

 

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Totally. He didn't register a tackle or an assist vs the Giants, and I have to wonder if that's a product of extreme overuse. He played close to 90 percent of the snaps, which is too much for a DT.

 

They had Oliver playing 1TDT a lot - something like 50%.  As the 1TDT, he's not gonna be registering a lot of tackles.

Edited October 18, 2023 by Beck Water

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Fair question, though it's kind of meaningless to answer in the abstract.

 

I would say Knox targets need to decrease by 1-2 per game until/unless his wrist heals and he fixes the dropsies.

Kincaid needs more looks.

 

Other than that, what I think we're seeing is Josh extending plays waiting for Gabe or Diggs to uncover, and sometimes forcing the ball  into them and missing resulting in 2nd and 10, 3rd and 10.  I think it would help a lot if he would take the open option be that Shakir, Kincaid, Cook.

 

I think that means 1-2 less targets a game for Diggs and Davis (lets say 2 for Diggs, and 1-2 for Davis), going to Cook, Kincaid and Shakir.

 

I don't think that would change the receptions Diggs and Davis have very much because while those balls are counted as targets to them, these are often the balls that Josh is overthrowing or dirting.

 

 

They had Oliver playing 1TDT a lot - something like 50%.  As the 1TDT, he's not gonna be registering a lot of tackles.

Yeah, but none--and not even an assist--with that many snaps?