Week 7 Bills @ Patriots - on to Foxborough!

[TheyCallMeAndy]

1 hour ago, Beast said:

If the Bills are in trouble against the Patriots because Ed Oliver is out we might as well pack it in for the year.

 

However, I just don’t see the Bills being in trouble. Ed Oliver or no Ed Oliver.

I think, without Oliver, you see a dip in the overall performance of the defense. Ford, Settle, and Phillips do not demand double teams, which will have a negative impact on the DEs on passing downs and LBers on rushing downs. If the DEs are being hemmed up, that creates problems with our secondary which isn’t all that athletic.

 

That is the trouble I was talking about, there is a path that the Empire could take advantage of our DT depth.

 

Not saying we lose, we just won’t have the defensive performance we are all expecting potentially.

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, RunTheBall said:

I expected Dorsey/Josh to dink and dunk more and run better just as an expansion of our offense and to get teams out of that 2 high shell which limits deep/intermediate passing. 

 

I figured when teams did that, we'd go back to our bread and butter with the deep crosses and overs plus seam shots to Kincaid 

 

Boy was I wrong. We don't have the consistent playmakers for a precision offense to be successful for 60 minutes. 

 

My solution:

Easy throws to several players early to get everyone in the game 

Test out run game under center early 

More pre snap motion 

A commitment to play action 

More Josh runs or the green light to scramble when it's there 

 

Force teams out of that 2 high then hit them intermediate/deep as soon as they do. Get the big plays back in this offense. 

 

Starts with letting Josh run more (not get hit more). It can done Mahomes does it to near perfection. Uses his legs when he needs to and at key moments. 

 

 

You know, this reminds me of when I was starting to fly all over the country as a private pilot, and I was a bit intimidated by the idea of a 1200, 1400, 2000 mile flight.  I asked an experienced mentor how to do it, and he kind of looked at me as though I had beets for brains: "you just plan it as a series of 500 mile flights"  There's more to it, of course - you're liable to cross more weather systems, and encounter more varied density altitudes.

 

But fundamentally, he was right.

 

What's my point? 

 

I dunno about a "precision offense", but the Bills absolutely do have enough offense to sustain scoring drives of 9-11 plays that go 75 yds or more.   And in fact, that's pretty much what they've done when they've scored successfully, so it's what they need to make up their mind to do right now.  Just take it one set of downs at a time.  The only way we're going to force teams to give us the intermediate and deep throws is if we commit to that and show patience. 

 

And in fact - most of the time when we've scored, that's exactly what we've done.  The Bills have scored 20 TD so far this season, and 9 of them have been long, methodical drives of 9-17 plays driving 75 yds or more.  One was 75 yard in 8 plays, one was 64 yds in 9 plays.  Of the others, only 2 have been quick strike length of the field in 4-5 plays drives; the others were off turnovers and some of those drives took a lot of plays to move the ball from from near midfield.

 

Just plan it as a series of 10 yard chunks.

 

As far as Josh "running more and not getting hit more", Josh isn't Mahomes.  When he runs, he gets lathered up and craves contact.  I think the Bills coaches got tired of saying to him "run but don't get hit, use your legs when you need to then slide or go OOB" .  They've been saying that to him for 5 years now and Josh has been hearing "run blahblahJosh use your legs blahblahJosh".  This season, he would maybe run out of bounds and slide a couple times, then start barreling into guys. 

 

So I think they finally said "listen, if you can't run nicely for a QB, don't run."  Of course, then we see him body-checking LB in the endzone after the play so...

Edited October 19, 2023 by Beck Water

[Mr Info]

34 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

Found this article in my MSN feed...

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/patriots-preparing-shocking-quarterback-move-ahead-of-week-7/ar-AA1irSiC?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=910f735ccac947f3854e153d8505d746&ei=7

Got this from the article you posted:

 

“Up to this point, there's no truth to the rumor that they're going to officially change their name to the New England "Patrits" because there's no "o" to speak of right now.”

[PatsFanNH]

28 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

I think, without Oliver, you see a dip in the overall performance of the defense. Ford, Settle, and Phillips do not demand double teams, which will have a negative impact on the DEs on passing downs and LBers on rushing downs. If the DEs are being hemmed up, that creates problems with our secondary which isn’t all that athletic.

 

That is the trouble I was talking about, there is a path that the Empire could take advantage of our DT depth.

 

Not saying we lose, we just won’t have the defensive performance we are all expecting potentially.

Ok first the Empire is in ruin and in. Need of a rebuild.. lol second the Pats O line if it isn’t the worst o line in the league it is definitely in the bottom 3 so your D will probably easily get pressure fast.

[Deadstroke]

12 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

You know, this reminds me of when I was starting to fly all over the country as a private pilot, and I was a bit intimidated by the idea of a 1200, 1400, 2000 mile flight.  I asked an experienced mentor how to do it, and he kind of looked at me as though I had beets for brains: "you just plan it as a series of 500 mile flights"  There's more to it, of course - you're liable to cross more weather systems, and encounter more varied density altitudes.

 

But fundamentally, he was right.

 

What's my point? 

 

I dunno about a "precision offense", but the Bills absolutely do have enough offense to sustain scoring drives of 9-11 plays that go 75 yds or more.   And in fact, that's pretty much what they've done when they've scored successfully, so it's what they need to make up their mind to do right now.  Just take it one set of downs at a time.  The only way we're going to force teams to give us the intermediate and deep throws is if we commit to that and show patience. 

 

And in fact - most of the time when we've scored, that's exactly what we've done.  The Bills have scored 20 TD so far this season, and 9 of them have been long, methodical drives of 9-17 plays driving 75 yds or more.  One was 75 yard in 8 plays, one was 64 yds in 9 plays.  Of the others, only 2 have been quick strike length of the field in 4-5 plays drives; the others were off turnovers and some of those drives took a lot of plays to move the ball from from near midfield.

 

Just plan it as a series of 10 yard chunks.

 

As far as Josh "running more and not getting hit more", Josh isn't Mahomes.  When he runs, he gets lathered up and craves contact.  I think the Bills coaches got tired of saying to him "run but don't get hit, use your legs when you need to then slide or go OOB" .  They've been saying that to him for 5 years now and Josh has been hearing "run blahblahJosh use your legs blahblahJosh".  This season, he would maybe run out of bounds and slide a couple times, then start barreling into guys. 

 

So I think they finally said "listen, if you can't run nicely for a QB, don't run."  Of course, then we see him body-checking LB in the endzone after the play so...

It's been said before, but Josh typically gets hurt from the pocket rather than on running plays.

[Beast]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Two.

 

Patriots have been spanked in 2 games - Cowboys and Saints.  And yes, as you might expect, those games featured a lot of rush yards given up.

 

The Patriots other 4 games have been 1 TD games.  They gave up a lot of rush yards to the Dolphins though, as though they were saying "you're not gonna beat us slinging it".

 

 

This may not be what you mean, but it sounds as though you're saying the Bills absolutely shouldn't lose to the Pats

 

Again, 3 of the Pats losses have been one-score games, including Miami.

 

The Bills better have a sound DL in the middle, and with Da'Quan Jones out they're already thin.  They coped last week by playing Ed at 1TDT.

Again, the Bills should have no trouble at all with the Patriots…Ed Oliver or no Ed Oliver. The Bills will still have Settle, Phillips and Ford, plus whoever else they may activate. They will slide Rousseau inside on passing downs.

 

The Patriots have become a severely banged up team since those 1 score games you are referring to. 

The Bills will win this by at least 2 TD’s regardless of Oliver’s status.

Edited October 19, 2023 by Beast

[Beck Water]

38 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

True but that is 1/3 of their games.  I don't expect to destroy the Pats the way we have been playing but we do have a significantly better team.  We should beat them but any given Sunday thing.

 

Found this article in my MSN feed...

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/patriots-preparing-shocking-quarterback-move-ahead-of-week-7/ar-AA1irSiC?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=910f735ccac947f3854e153d8505d746&ei=7

 

Yeah, I don't buy it.

 

First of all, if Belicheck were seriously going to switch QB to Malik Cunningham or give him a significant role, why would he advertise it in the press?  Keep it quiet and show it on the field.  "Surprise is the essence of attack"

 

Second, Cunningham had what, 2 snaps in the Raiders game?  On one of them he took a 5 yd sack. 

 

The Cover1 Disguised Coverage show has Patriots guy Taylor Kyles talking about this, starting at 12:27 if the link doesn't take you there.  Taylor (Pats guy) says "he's been primarily trained as a receiver, and getting packaged as a QB.  He showed promising flashes in preseason, but literally just end of game flashes.  If you think it's bad with Mac, imagine how it's going to look with Malik Cunningham who has no chemistry with the people on the field and is still learning the offense, out there for an entire game against NFL defenses.  He got two opportunities at QB last week, a zone read and an RPO...maybe he was not processing things quickly enough, there was a well timed blitz...Malik is very talented, but to expect him to play any significant snaps at QB no matter who the emergency QB is, it's just not going to happen because Mac is just far and away the best QB on this roster."

I think it's distraction, designed to send Bills defensive assistants scurrying for the Louisville tape and wasting their time there.

[stevewin]

37 minutes ago, Mr Info said:

Got this from the article you posted:

 

“Up to this point, there's no truth to the rumor that they're going to officially change their name to the New England "Patrits" because there's no "o" to speak of right now.”

New England Putrids has a nice ring to it too

[Beck Water]

9 minutes ago, Beast said:

Again, the Bills should have no trouble at all with the Patriots…Ed Oliver or no Ed Oliver. The Bills will still have Settle, Phillips and Ford, plus whoever else they may activate. They will slide Rousseau inside on passing downs.

 

The Patriots have become a severely banged up team since those 1 score games you are referring to. 

The Bills will win this by at least 2 TD’s regardless of Oliver’s status.

 

The Patriots have become a severely banged up time since those 1 score games...you mean like, last week's game against the Raiders which they lost by 4 points?  And one could say the same about the Bills ...they've become a severely banged up team since they had those strong wins earlier in the season.

 

The Bills should have had no trouble at all with the Giants, and yet.

 

Settle and Ford played 25% of the snaps each at 1T last week.  Why is that, if they can get'er done against a team that is literally last in the league in scoring, 28th in passing, and 19th for rush yards?

 

The Bills can and should beat the Patriots, but make no mistake...it's going to be a much harder slog if there isn't strong pressure and run defense up the middle.  Bill Belicheck is aware that we have two inexperienced linebackers, and he will be doing his best to fool them.

 

[WideNine]

I think we have to accept that we are going to face an AFC East opponent desperate to get out of the basement.

 

I can remember when that was our Bills and even those crappy Bills teams often made it a game vs the Pats.

 

Normally found ways to lose those, but the lesson is that you never take any opponent lightly.

 

I expect us to win, but I am not expecting a cake walk.

 

 

[buffblue]

6 minutes ago, WideNine said:

I think we have to accept that we are going to face an AFC East opponent desperate to get out of the basement.

 

I can remember when that was our Bills and even those crappy Bills teams often made it a game vs the Pats.

 

Normally found ways to lose those, but the lesson is that you never take any opponent lightly.

 

I expect us to win, but I am not expecting a cake walk.

 

 

Agreed. Can see a 24-17 type of game. Hopefully it's not that close

[Beck Water]

32 minutes ago, Deadstroke said:

It's been said before, but Josh typically gets hurt from the pocket rather than on running plays.

 

It's been said before, but it's actually incorrect that Josh "typically gets hurt from the pocket".  He's had two injuries in the pocket that I can think of.

 

Outside the pocket, it's a split between injuries on running plays and trying to extend the play (and to be fair that can be a distinction without a difference, since he'll be looking to pass until he decides to take off) but he's had 3 or 4 injuries outside the pocket.

 

First of all, going back to college, Josh shattered his shoulder, requiring surgery and a lost season, on a running play.  He also broke his clavicle in HS on a run play.  I say that not to dredge up old history, but when a guy has multiple injuries in the same area it does become a concern.

 

2018 Josh missed 4 games with a UCL injury to his right elbow, sustained in the pocket.

2019 Josh sustained a concussion on a running play vs. the Pats. Way outside the pocket.

2020 Josh sustained a shoulder injury to his L shoulder Week 4, extending the play outside the pocket to the L.  He played 2 or 3 games in a linebacker brace before switching to tape for another couple of games.  By the 5th week, he was fine.

[2020 There was also concern when Josh was corkscrewed to the ground by Bosa vs. SF outside the pocket to the R while trying to break a tackle and run; looked like a knee injury, but "Josh Allen is Gumby", he escaped.]
2021 Josh sustained a turf toe injury while running out of bounds, way outside the pocket.  Injury report, but "Josh Allen is Gumby" saved him again.

2022 UCL tear again vs the Jets, in the pocket as I recall.  No time lost but Josh admitted after the season that it did affect his throwing motion.

 

Those are the ones we know about, of course there are bumps and bruises and contusions and strains and sprains that go unreported.

But I make that 2 injuries in the pocket, and 3 [or 4] outside.

 

[MasterStrategist]

https://x.com/agetzenberg/status/1715036293829160991?s=20

 

No Ed, Morris or Harris on Thursday.

 

@HappyDaysany inside info on Eds toe injury/severity?

 

Likely Vickers gets called up, if Ed can't go.  

 

 

 

[dock581]

1 hour ago, Mr Info said:

Got this from the article you posted:

 

“Up to this point, there's no truth to the rumor that they're going to officially change their name to the New England "Patrits" because there's no "o" to speak of right now.”

 

Any chance they try a wildcat with Cunningham?

[Beck Water]

26 minutes ago, WideNine said:

I think we have to accept that we are going to face an AFC East opponent desperate to get out of the basement.

 

I can remember when that was our Bills and even those crappy Bills teams often made it a game vs the Pats.

 

Normally found ways to lose those, but the lesson is that you never take any opponent lightly.

 

I expect us to win, but I am not expecting a cake walk.

 

This.  Furthermore, Bill B hasn't entirely had a brain transplant.  He understands that we're depleted on defense and depending upon a rookie and a 1st year starter at LB, as well as relatively inexperienced CBs and lesser DTs.

 

He will be scheming to deceive and take advantage of these players.

 

4 minutes ago, dock581 said:

Any chance they try a wildcat with Cunningham?

 

There's a chance of anything, but I would expect it to be a few plays.  2 last week, one of which didn't go so well.  Maybe 4 or 6?

 

12 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

https://x.com/agetzenberg/status/1715036293829160991?s=20

 

No Ed, Morris or Harris on Thursday.

 

@HappyDaysany inside info on Eds toe injury/severity?

 

Likely Vickers gets called up, if Ed can't go. 

 

I wish we hadn't lost Ankou to the Falcons

Edited October 19, 2023 by Beck Water

[Warriorspikes51]

Oliver DNP today again 

[Mr Info]

 

Four Bills players will wear international flag decals on their helmets in Weeks 7-8 as part of the NFL Heritage program:

Kingsley Johnathan, Nigeria 
Taylor Rapp, China
Germain Ifedi, Nigeria
Dalton Kincaid, Canada

 

 

https://x.com/agetzenberg/status/1715009333329621145?s=46&t=3TlF70PqNjknWD3Sou9ZnA

[Beck Water]

14 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Oliver DNP today again 

 

McDermott hopes Ed will practice tomorrow and play on Sunday

 

Says similar about Josh:

 

I don't remember what they said about Josh's non-throwing shoulder injury which hampered him for 5 games in 2020.

[Beck Water]

14 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

I've been saying that all season.  People that want this dink and dunk/take what the defense gives you for 2 yards and 15 play drives are literally asking for this offense to play perfect ball. 

 

As opposed to the games where Josh ignores "what the defense gives him" in favor of an overthrown moon shot (because he's extending the play and off platform) resulting in a 3 and out, or tries to force a ball into Stef or Davis resulting in a turnover? 

 

The thing is, the Bills have done those long drives on essentially half of our TDs to date.  And they've cut drives short on those impatient "must get chunk plays!" interceptions or off-target deep shots, more often than not.

 

Dink and dunk.  Make them stop us, don't stop ourselves.

 

14 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Sounds like a game Dorsey will go run heavy game plan then.

 

I hope we go run heavy game plan, not because of some Sar Chasm but because we should take the load off Allen's shoulder and give it a chance to heal.

Edited October 19, 2023 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]