Gabe Davis vs. Expected #2 WR Capabilities

[Bangarang]

My ideal scenario was we ride out the last year of Gabe’s deal while Kincaid goes through the motions of being a rookie while still showing flashes and next year he slides in as #2.

Edited October 18, 2023 by Bangarang

[Alphadawg7]

On 10/16/2023 at 5:52 PM, PBF81 said:

I started a thread with this for the stats, so that they wouldn't get lost in the thread.  Given all of the discussion re: Davis and whether or not he's a #2 WR, his limitations, etc., while discussing this with another poster I mentioned that I'd put together a listing of all of the current #2 WRs in the league as it stood after 6 weeks.  

 

Granted, given injuries etc. there may be a few oddities, and in some cases I had to determine which was the #2 going by depth charts and data.  That's generally not a good thing for that team.  I tried not to count the Slot WRs, but if they were unmistakeably the #2 I may have used it.  If you want to find issues you will.  I also didn't do a ton of research besides simply looking at each team's stats.  I didn't count injured WRs.  Also, in I believe two cases, the TE was the #1 WR, so the #2 WR was really the best WR on the team.  KC and the Giants have question marks because none of their WRs stand out.  KC's leading WR for example, after Kelce, is on pace for 694 Yards and 6 TDs.  The Giants' leading WR is on pace for 669 Yards and 0 TDs.  So none of those are really germane to the discussion when their best isn't even as good as our second and in KC's case having nothing to do with the QB.  Feel free to include any of their WRs in the discussion however.  

 

The point of this is not to get everyone worked up on their position on Davis, rather to encourage discussion as to what the expectations for a #2 WR really are, which can vary with the team.  I know we'd all love to have the modern equivalent of Rice, Moss, and Gonzalez in our WR/TE ranks, and Sanders or Payton in our backfield, and the HOGS of the Skins as our OL, but we also need to be realistic.  

 

I also don't want to take a position out-of-the-gate here.  I do think that discussing coaching or Beane is fair game since it stands to reason that this is what they wanted, and they even stated that they like Gabe as a #2 during the offseason and strongly believed in him.  So there would seem to be a strong relationship between the situation and McBeane.  

 

Anyway, here's the data, look it over and ask yourself the tough questions.  I sorted it by the obvious Receiving Yards, and put Davis' rankings in each category at the top for purposes of comparison.  I had to reduce the size of the spreadsheet to get it on.  Hopefully it can be expanded.  

 

 

 

Here is why these stat things are so flawed...theres absolutely no context to the production.

 

The issue with Davis is not that he won't have solid year end totals, its the fact that he:

• Has a few big games and disappears for many of the games
• He has unreliable hands
• He has a limited route tree and provides little value anywhere but downfield
• A lot of his production comes from Allen extending plays and Davis breaking off his routes...which is because Davis doesn't win a lot of his initial routes
• Coming into this season he had 3 total 100 yard games over 3 seasons (1 per year literally).  But more than half his games he has under 50 yards.  

We have Josh Allen with a big arm and Davis is good deep ball player so his end year totals will look solid, but it's a real indicator of his week to week value and performance because he is a one dimensional who is also easily schemed out of games.  This results in a an unreliable and inconsistent player for Josh where his best value to our QB is on lower percentage throws deep down field rather than moving the chains and extending drives.  He had 2 drive killing drops in the Jax game (one got wiped out by a penalty and isn't on his stat sheet now) that were bad for example.  

[jethro_tull]

He's upped his catch percentage to a very respectable 70%.  I believe last season he was hovering around 56% which is unacceptable.  

Unfortunately Dawson Knox is currently 56% catch percentage.  

Hoping Dalton Kincaid gets through concussion protocol soon- he's leading the team with an 89.5% completion rate.  

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I'm on record as not being one of the "Davis is not a #2 WR" club.  Different offenses have different styles of #2 WR and he fits one style.

 

However, people who know more football than I do (and Davis record) point out that he is not a "safety valve" receiver. 

 

He is not the guy who is reliably always open against any coverage.  He does seem to have a limited route tree.

 

So I'm kind of curious, what leads you to say Davis needs more, not fewer, targets?

 

I would agree that the offense would benefit by having Diggs target load re-distributed.  But I think it needs to be re-distributed to guys who can reliably get open quickly and gain YAC.  I would nominate Kincaid and Cook as key beneficiaries of re-distribution attempts, with honorable mention to Shakir (provided he proves he can catch when targeted more, Sherfield or Harty if he doesn't).

 

If you feel he is a #2, you have to conclude that as such he needs more than 5 targets a game. Last year, with 48% more targets than the year before, he had 53% more yards.  

 

Davis and Diggs have identical YAC (3.2 yards)---with Gabe having a much higher YBC.  He gets the deeper look more often.  Diggs gets a lot of short stuff and goes down immediately.

 

It's unfair to include a RB who often catches a pass in the backfield or just beyond and has more blockers downfield.  Hence Cook's tiny YBC (2.6) and huge YAC (9.6) 

 

Kincaid has thus far proven he is not guy who can get YAC.  He catches 90% of his passes because he is barely across the line of scrimmage.  He has a tiny YBC (3.4) and quickly gets tackled 3.6 yards away.  He has only 118 yards after 5 games.  Only 4 of 19 targets resulted in 1st down.  You can't take away from your #2 to give targets to the checkdown guy.

Edited October 18, 2023 by Mr. WEO

[Beck Water]

12 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

If you feel he is a #2, you have to conclude that as such he needs more than 5 targets a game. Last year, with 48% more targets than the year before, he had 53% more yards.  

 

Davis and Diggs have identical YAC (3.2 yards)---with Gabe having a much higher YBC.  He gets the deeper look more often.  Diggs gets a lot of short stuff and goes down immediately.

 

It's unfair to include a RB who often catches a pass in the backfield or just beyond and has more blockers downfield.  Hence Cook's tiny YBC (2.6) and huge YAC (9.6) 

 

Kincaid has thus far proven he is not guy who can get YAC.  He catches 90% of his passes because he is barely across the line of scrimmage.  He has a tiny YBC (3.4) and quickly gets tackled 3.6 yards away.  He has only 118 yards after 8 games.  Only 4 of 19 targets resulted in 1st down.  You can't take away from your #2 to give targets to the checkdown guy.

 

I think you're conflating Kincaid's potential, with how the Bills have used him so far.  He was used downfield in college.

 

But yes, that's exactly what needs to happen - when the #2 WR is apparently best used on deep, slow developing routes, resulting in Josh fighting to extend plays, taking hits behind the LOS, and throwing interceptions - taking away targets from the double-covered deep guy and feeding the short, quick underneath option is EXACTLY what you need to do - except you don't use him as the "checkdown" after all other targets are exhausted.  The idea is to use him as a quick outlet when he has grass ahead of him and can make more yards.

 

Cook, too. 

 

In case the math hasn't struck you, short passes to the guy who can double his yardage with YAC and get 7 yds per attempt, or to the backs who can do the same or double it, moves the chains and either generates 1Ds, or puts us in 3rd and short.

 

42 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Here is why these stat things are so flawed...theres absolutely no context to the production.

 

The issue with Davis is not that he won't have solid year end totals, its the fact that he:

• Has a few big games and disappears for many of the games
• He has unreliable hands
• He has a limited route tree and provides little value anywhere but downfield
• A lot of his production comes from Allen extending plays and Davis breaking off his routes...which is because Davis doesn't win a lot of his initial routes
• Coming into this season he had 3 total 100 yard games over 3 seasons (1 per year literally).  But more than half his games he has under 50 yards.  

We have Josh Allen with a big arm and Davis is good deep ball player so his end year totals will look solid, but it's a real indicator of his week to week value and performance because he is a one dimensional who is also easily schemed out of games.  This results in a an unreliable and inconsistent player for Josh where his best value to our QB is on lower percentage throws deep down field rather than moving the chains and extending drives.  He had 2 drive killing drops in the Jax game (one got wiped out by a penalty and isn't on his stat sheet now) that were bad for example.  

 

Exactly.  Take the short throws, move the chains, and when the defense says "damn!  we're being nibbled to death, we got to change up our coverage and slow this down!", Gabe will be more open deep, take your shots.

Edited October 18, 2023 by Beck Water

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

I think you're conflating Kincaid's potential, with how the Bills have used him so far.  He was used downfield in college.

 

But yes, that's exactly what needs to happen - when the #2 WR is apparently best used on deep, slow developing routes, resulting in Josh fighting to extend plays, taking hits behind the LOS, and throwing interceptions - taking away targets from the double-covered deep guy and feeding the short, quick underneath option is EXACTLY what you need to do - except you don't use him as the "checkdown" after all other targets are exhausted.  The idea is to use him as a quick outlet when he has grass ahead of him and can make more yards.

 

Cook, too. 

 

In case the math hasn't struck you, short passes to the guy who can double his yardage with YAC and get 7 yds per attempt, or to the backs who can do the same or double it, moves the chains and either generates 1Ds, or puts us in 3rd and short.

 

 

Plenty of college stars have entered the NFL....

 

 

I'm not conflating--these are his stats.  You can't call him a YAC threat if he hasn't shown he is in this league so far.  It doesn't make sense to point to him as such based on what he did really for one big year in college 12.7 YPC). Likewise it certainly doesn't make sense to conclude that based on what he has actually accomplished in the NFL on this team.

 

The math that struck me most is that a catch by Davis is more than 3 times  as likely to result in a 1st down than a catch by Kincaid and a target is twice as likely. 

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Here is why these stat things are so flawed...theres absolutely no context to the production.

 

The issue with Davis is not that he won't have solid year end totals, its the fact that he:

• Has a few big games and disappears for many of the games
• He has unreliable hands
• He has a limited route tree and provides little value anywhere but downfield
• A lot of his production comes from Allen extending plays and Davis breaking off his routes...which is because Davis doesn't win a lot of his initial routes
• Coming into this season he had 3 total 100 yard games over 3 seasons (1 per year literally).  But more than half his games he has under 50 yards.  

We have Josh Allen with a big arm and Davis is good deep ball player so his end year totals will look solid, but it's a real indicator of his week to week value and performance because he is a one dimensional who is also easily schemed out of games.  This results in a an unreliable and inconsistent player for Josh where his best value to our QB is on lower percentage throws deep down field rather than moving the chains and extending drives.  He had 2 drive killing drops in the Jax game (one got wiped out by a penalty and isn't on his stat sheet now) that were bad for example.  

 

Interesting points.  

 

Again, I simply posted this for discussion, without adding any comment or context.  But there is some context built in.  I'll hit those points in a moment.  

 

But I would throw this back into your lap so to speak, for that added contrast, how about citing the WR2s above that meet the expectations that you set forth above, in that contrast to Davis?  

 

To your points on that, how many of those #2 WRs listed do not "disappear for many of the games?"  But also, how many games has Davis "disappeared from" in contrast/context.  If you're using that as an argument to support a point, presumably you've done at least a little research/analysis there, right?  Include it with your statement.  

 

How do your next two bullet points compare to the other #2s?  

 

I would argue your fourth point at least somewhat.  I mean here's every catch from the Jax game.  I don't see one where Davis "broke off his route."  Also, there is a little versatility there in routes run.  Again, contradicting the narrative.  But either way, who has a problem with those plays and catches.  Not me.  

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axzo6SP7hSE

 

Here's his Miami TD, also doesn't qualify that way;  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bs6LV_GzLgE

 

 

Here's the Washington TD, no broken route or extended play;  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bufyoTi6xzI 

 

Here's one, but it's a heckuva play by Davis;  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAn_Nk4Nps8

 

 

 

As to "moving the chains," to me that means 1st-Downs.  How do you define it?  Seriously asking here.  But he ranks 10th among those on the list in 1st-Downs.  Where does he need to be in order to be considered "moving the chains?"  10th is in the top-10.  What, 1st?  2nd?  

 

Here's the thing, I've noticed that some of the people that are hard on Davis, also defend both Beane and McD.  This is their "Process," whatever that is.  The situation is what they have produced.  So any dissatisfaction in it, without the accompanying criticism of them, is misplaced.  Is it not?