Gabe Davis vs. Expected #2 WR Capabilities

[RyanC883]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Where are all the teams with the highly productive #3 WRs you folks are talking about?

 

Beckham with the Ravens with 113 yards?

Miami with Berrios with 179 yards?

The Jets with Cobb at 20 yards?

The Pats with DaVante Parker with 136 yards?

The Browns with People's-Jones at 75 yards?

The Steelers with Allen Robinson with 137?

The Bengals with Tee Higgins with 149? I was actually pretty surprised there, expected that to be higher.

The Jags with Zay Jones at 78?

The Colts with Alec Pierce at 149?

The Texans with Robert Woods at 227?

The Titans with Chris Moore with 140?

The Raiders with Hunter Renfrow at 59 yards?

The Chiefs with Skyy Moore with 145?

The Raiders with Hunter Renfrow with 59?

The Broncos with Jerry Jeudy with 222?

 

That's all of the high-powered AFC, folks!! Who stands out there beyond Bobby Trees with 227  and Jerry Jeudy with 222? Wanna throw in Berrios at 179?

 

You're living in a fantasy universe where all the #3 receivers are these wildly productive creatures. When you add in the TEs and RBs beyond each team's top two receivers, there just aren't that many balls to go around.

 

Particularly for a team making a move towards running two TEs so much.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

how many of these guys have been hurt?  Zay would be a huge upgrade here and balled out in the 1 game he played for Jax this year, and had a good season last year.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

13 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Are you hedging on their behalf?  To start, all I did was put up some factual info.  I haven't opined in this thread and will try not to.  I haven't interpreted anything in it.  

 

But to your point, they really haven't done much to bring in the type of talent that would be better than Davis, apart from sign Diggs, right?  Or do you view the two 5th, three 6ths, and 7th picks that they used on WRs apart from Davis to be indicative that they were not satisfied with the situation?  

 

Whom they discussed bringing in here isn't really material.  What is material is the situation that they have created, no?  

 

We talk about it here, but not one person here had anything to do with that, right.  

 

Are you saying that they haven't been satisfied?  If not, why not do you think?  What would the problem have been then in that case?  

 

Let's not forget, Beane's six seasons in and McD is seven seasons in, we're well past the "getting his own guys in here" thing.  That ship sailed several seasons ago.  What's here in port is their cargo.  Right?  Or do you view it differently?  

 

More relevantly I would probably ask which of the receivers on that list would you prefer here?  How much do you think a WR like that would cost to bring in?  And what difference would it make?  

 

 

 

I have beef with some on this list, like Deebo Samuel. He's clearly a #1. I get the machinations regarding TE, but a fair comparison keeps them out of the conversation.

 

 

 

[Beck Water]

15 hours ago, PBF81 said:

I started a thread with this for the stats, so that they wouldn't get lost in the thread.  Given all of the discussion re: Davis and whether or not he's a #2 WR, his limitations, etc., while discussing this with another poster I mentioned that I'd put together a listing of all of the current #2 WRs in the league as it stood after 6 weeks.  

 

Granted, given injuries etc. there may be a few oddities, and in some cases I had to determine which was the #2 going by depth charts and data.  That's generally not a good thing for that team.  I tried not to count the Slot WRs, but if they were unmistakeably the #2 I may have used it.  If you want to find issues you will.  I also didn't do a ton of research besides simply looking at each team's stats.  I didn't count injured WRs.  Also, in I believe two cases, the TE was the #1 WR, so the #2 WR was really the best WR on the team.  KC and the Giants have question marks because none of their WRs stand out.  KC's leading WR for example, after Kelce, is on pace for 694 Yards and 6 TDs.  The Giants' leading WR is on pace for 669 Yards and 0 TDs.  So none of those are really germane to the discussion when their best isn't even as good as our second and in KC's case having nothing to do with the QB.  Feel free to include any of their WRs in the discussion however.  

 

The point of this is not to get everyone worked up on their position on Davis, rather to encourage discussion as to what the expectations for a #2 WR really are, which can vary with the team.  I know we'd all love to have the modern equivalent of Rice, Moss, and Gonzalez in our WR/TE ranks, and Sanders or Payton in our backfield, and the HOGS of the Skins as our OL, but we also need to be realistic.  

 

I also don't want to take a position out-of-the-gate here.  I do think that discussing coaching or Beane is fair game since it stands to reason that this is what they wanted, and they even stated that they like Gabe as a #2 during the offseason and strongly believed in him.  So there would seem to be a strong relationship between the situation and McBeane.  

 

Anyway, here's the data, look it over and ask yourself the tough questions.  I sorted it by the obvious Receiving Yards, and put Davis' rankings in each category at the top for purposes of comparison.  I had to reduce the size of the spreadsheet to get it on.  Hopefully it can be expanded.  

 

 

 

If people click on the table, it will enlarge (at least, on a computer, it will).  You might put "click to enlarge" in your post.

 

What are the 16th 13th T2 3rd etc above the column headings?

 

Thanks!

24 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

I have beef with some on this list, like Deebo Samuel. He's clearly a #1. I get the machinations regarding TE, but a fair comparison keeps them out of the conversation.

 

Kelce is clearly and has been the #1 receiver on the Chiefs for several years.  So I disagree that it's "fair" to keep TE out of the conversation when they're clearly functioning as WR and leading the team.

[BillsVet]

The statistical analysis leaves out some variables, namely, that not all WR2's are playing with a QB of Allen's caliber.  Setting that aside, Gabe's 2023 season isn't much different than 2022.  

 

Last year, he was targeted 93 times in 16 games or less than 6 per.  Through 6 games this season, it's 5 targets a game.  His yards per game are similar (57 this year versus 52 last). 

 

If a guy giving you, on average 3-4 catches per and 55 yards is your low expectation, then great.  It shouldn't be for fans who would like to see Josh have a player who isn't pedestrian in the passing game.  Nor, is the short sample catch rate increase enough to overcome that lack of production. 

 

Because for some reason, he's not getting much attention in this offense despite no one threatening his apparent role as their 2nd option in the passing game. That's a question to consider in this debate, which is pretty much settled by now. 

[Einstein's Dog]

13 hours ago, FireChans said:

 

Oh, they investigated! Well then, I guess that's all we can ask.

 

Why the snide comment?  Who said that's all we can ask? 

 

The OP said "it stands to reason this is what they wanted".  I don't believe that is true.  I believe the FO investigated WR upgrades but they didn't work out budget wise.  They then went with the hope that Gabe would improve, that maybe he was hampered by injury last year.

[Einstein's Dog]

6 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

cool.  why don't they just go out and get some excellent players?

They should!  I'm hoping they are looking into it. 

 

This may have been the plan after failing on OBJ and DHop.  That they would give Gabe a 5 week trial run and if there wasn't significant improvement go out and get a veteran for an in-season trade.

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

They should!  I'm hoping they are looking into it. 

 

This may have been the plan after failing on OBJ and DHop.  That they would give Gabe a 5 week trial run and if there wasn't significant improvement go out and get a veteran for an in-season trade.

 

 

 

 

oh wow, you were serious...

 

 

and OBJ sucks.

[Einstein's Dog]

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

oh wow, you were serious...

 

 

and OBJ sucks.

I've been hoping because I've never felt Gabe was the guy.  I don't think the records of the teams have gone our way though.  Not many teams are out of it and would be willing to trade away a good veteran WR.

 

My new hope is Dorsey resets the offense to include more Kincaid/Cook/Knox and lessen the load on Gabe.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I've been hoping because I've never felt Gabe was the guy.  I don't think the records of the teams have gone our way though.  Not many teams are out of it and would be willing to trade away a good veteran WR.

 

My new hope is Dorsey resets the offense to include more Kincaid/Cook/Knox and lessen the load on Gabe.

Davis needs more, not fewer targets.  Diggs needs his target load redistributed 

[Teddy KGB]

19 hours ago, FireChans said:

Meh, I read a lot about how Sherfield and Harty were upgrades in the WR room.  Hope always springs eternal in Bills land when the JAG deck chairs are rearranged.

Sherfeld seems pretty decent whenever they go to him. 
 

 

[FireChans]

5 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Why the snide comment?  Who said that's all we can ask? 

 

The OP said "it stands to reason this is what they wanted".  I don't believe that is true.  I believe the FO investigated WR upgrades but they didn't work out budget wise.  They then went with the hope that Gabe would improve, that maybe he was hampered by injury last year.

Because you don’t get to play that game. It’s a results oriented business.

 

Beane and McD made choices. They chose to let Edmunds walk and start Bernard. It was clearly the right move, and they deserve a lot of credit for that call. It does not matter if they were trying to resign Edmunds and he got priced out. 

 

They chose to address the WR room with Deonte Harty and Sherfield. It was clearly the WRONG move and they deserve blame for that decision. It does not matter that they looked into other options that they didn’t execute on.

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

Davis needs more, not fewer targets.  Diggs needs his target load redistributed 

 

Davis wont get more targets because he is a deep ball guy.  Thats all he is good at. Those opportunities won't come all that often.  When he does get opportunity he drops the ball.

[Einstein's Dog]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

Davis needs more, not fewer targets.  Diggs needs his target load redistributed 

I think they can reduce Diggs target load by giving more looks to Kincaid/Cook/Knox and even Harty/Sherfield.  Kind of like what they did in the Miami game.

[Mr. WEO]

12 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Davis wont get more targets because he is a deep ball guy.  Thats all he is good at. Those opportunities won't come all that often.  When he does get opportunity he drops the ball.

 

Caught 70% of his targets.  2 drops. Maybe you were thinking of Knox?

 

11 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I think they can reduce Diggs target load by giving more looks to Kincaid/Cook/Knox and even Harty/Sherfield.  Kind of like what they did in the Miami game.

 

Kincaid/Knox/Harty/Sherfield had a total of 9 catches for 67 yards.  Davis had 3 for 61 and a TD.

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

On 10/16/2023 at 11:14 PM, GoBills808 said:

I don't see how folks can't get this 

 

They turned Isaiah McKenzie into a viable option at wideout ffs

He was never much of a viable option IMO. HE WAS A GADGET/jet sweep guy who had one memorable game as a true receiver. He was a JAG just like his current replacements are. 

[PBF81]

21 hours ago, Beck Water said:

What are the 16th 13th T2 3rd etc above the column headings?

 

Davis' rankings in the cats.  

 

 

[Beck Water]

20 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

The OP said "it stands to reason this is what they wanted".  I don't believe that is true.  I believe the FO investigated WR upgrades but they didn't work out budget wise.  They then went with the hope that Gabe would improve, that maybe he was hampered by injury last year.

 

The PR sell has certainly been "maybe he was hampered by injury last year".

[Beck Water]

15 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

Davis needs more, not fewer targets.  Diggs needs his target load redistributed 

 

I'm on record as not being one of the "Davis is not a #2 WR" club.  Different offenses have different styles of #2 WR and he fits one style.

 

However, people who know more football than I do (and Davis record) point out that he is not a "safety valve" receiver. 

 

He is not the guy who is reliably always open against any coverage.  He does seem to have a limited route tree.

 

So I'm kind of curious, what leads you to say Davis needs more, not fewer, targets?

 

I would agree that the offense would benefit by having Diggs target load re-distributed.  But I think it needs to be re-distributed to guys who can reliably get open quickly and gain YAC.  I would nominate Kincaid and Cook as key beneficiaries of re-distribution attempts, with honorable mention to Shakir (provided he proves he can catch when targeted more, Sherfield or Harty if he doesn't).

[BigDingus]

Thank you!

 

People keep saying we need a "real" WR2, when in reality they actually want a 1A + 1B situation.

 

Most WR2s aren't even as productive as Gabe, but we look at those rare spoiled teams like the Dolphins & want similar production. And that's fine, I want that too, but I don't expect it from your average WR2.

[Einstein's Dog]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

I'm on record as not being one of the "Davis is not a #2 WR" club.  Different offenses have different styles of #2 WR and he fits one style.

 

However, people who know more football than I do (and Davis record) point out that he is not a "safety valve" receiver. 

 

He is not the guy who is reliably always open against any coverage.  He does seem to have a limited route tree.

 

So I'm kind of curious, what leads you to say Davis needs more, not fewer, targets?

 

I would agree that the offense would benefit by having Diggs target load re-distributed.  But I think it needs to be re-distributed to guys who can reliably get open quickly and gain YAC.  I would nominate Kincaid and Cook as key beneficiaries of re-distribution attempts, with honorable mention to Shakir (provided he proves he can catch when targeted more, Sherfield or Harty if he doesn't).

I agree with you.  One good way to reduce Diggs workload is to increase the Kincaid/Cook/Knox target share.  IMO Kincaid/Cook are much better than last years McK/Singletary combo.  Kincaid and Cook look to have excellent hands and could do some damage w YAC.  IMO this slight offensive change should result in a year over year improvement.

 

I had hoped for an upgrade at WR2 over Gabe.  I realize this would be called by many a 1b.  Giving a 6'4" 240 hard to bring down, laser throwing QB a 1a +1b makes for an exciting, difficult to defend offense.  The OL gives Josh 3 seconds and then Josh creates 2 more on his own before unleashing a 25-30 yard rope.