Gabe Davis vs. Expected #2 WR Capabilities

[PBF81]

I started a thread with this for the stats, so that they wouldn't get lost in the thread.  Given all of the discussion re: Davis and whether or not he's a #2 WR, his limitations, etc., while discussing this with another poster I mentioned that I'd put together a listing of all of the current #2 WRs in the league as it stood after 6 weeks.  

 

Granted, given injuries etc. there may be a few oddities, and in some cases I had to determine which was the #2 going by depth charts and data.  That's generally not a good thing for that team.  I tried not to count the Slot WRs, but if they were unmistakeably the #2 I may have used it.  If you want to find issues you will.  I also didn't do a ton of research besides simply looking at each team's stats.  I didn't count injured WRs.  Also, in I believe two cases, the TE was the #1 WR, so the #2 WR was really the best WR on the team.  KC and the Giants have question marks because none of their WRs stand out.  KC's leading WR for example, after Kelce, is on pace for 694 Yards and 6 TDs.  The Giants' leading WR is on pace for 669 Yards and 0 TDs.  So none of those are really germane to the discussion when their best isn't even as good as our second and in KC's case having nothing to do with the QB.  Feel free to include any of their WRs in the discussion however.  

 

The point of this is not to get everyone worked up on their position on Davis, rather to encourage discussion as to what the expectations for a #2 WR really are, which can vary with the team.  I know we'd all love to have the modern equivalent of Rice, Moss, and Gonzalez in our WR/TE ranks, and Sanders or Payton in our backfield, and the HOGS of the Skins as our OL, but we also need to be realistic.  

 

I also don't want to take a position out-of-the-gate here.  I do think that discussing coaching or Beane is fair game since it stands to reason that this is what they wanted, and they even stated that they like Gabe as a #2 during the offseason and strongly believed in him.  So there would seem to be a strong relationship between the situation and McBeane.  

 

Anyway, here's the data, look it over and ask yourself the tough questions.  I sorted it by the obvious Receiving Yards, and put Davis' rankings in each category at the top for purposes of comparison.  I had to reduce the size of the spreadsheet to get it on.  Hopefully it can be expanded.  

 

 

[Billl]

Davis has one thing going for him that Bills fans are going to miss next year, and that’s his contract.  He might not be a great #2, but he’s decent at worst.  He’s probably a $12 million a year player, and he’s earning peanuts.  There’s value in filling a position on the cheap and freeing up cap space to be allocated elsewhere.

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

I started a thread with this for the stats, so that they wouldn't get lost in the thread.  Given all of the discussion re: Davis and whether or not he's a #2 WR, his limitations, etc., while discussing this with another poster I mentioned that I'd put together a listing of all of the current #2 WRs in the league as it stood after 6 weeks.  

 

Granted, given injuries etc. there may be a few oddities, and in some cases I had to determine which was the #2 going by depth charts and data.  That's generally not a good thing for that team.  I tried not to count the Slot WRs, but if they were unmistakeably the #2 I may have used it.  If you want to find issues you will.  I also didn't do a ton of research besides simply looking at each team's stats.  I didn't count injured WRs.  Also, in I believe two cases, the TE was the #1 WR, so the #2 WR was really the best WR on the team.  KC and the Giants have question marks because none of their WRs stand out.  KC's leading WR for example, after Kelce, is on pace for 694 Yards and 6 TDs.  The Giants' leading WR is on pace for 669 Yards and 0 TDs.  So none of those are really germane to the discussion when their best isn't even as good as our second and in KC's case having nothing to do with the QB.  Feel free to include any of their WRs in the discussion however.  

 

The point of this is not to get everyone worked up on their position on Davis, rather to encourage discussion as to what the expectations for a #2 WR really are, which can vary with the team.  I know we'd all love to have the modern equivalent of Rice, Moss, and Gonzalez in our WR/TE ranks, and Sanders or Payton in our backfield, and the HOGS of the Skins as our OL, but we also need to be realistic.  

 

I also don't want to take a position out-of-the-gate here.  I do think that discussing coaching or Beane is fair game since it stands to reason that this is what they wanted, and they even stated that they like Gabe as a #2 during the offseason and strongly believed in him.  So there would seem to be a strong relationship between the situation and McBeane.  

 

Anyway, here's the data, look it over and ask yourself the tough questions.  I sorted it by the obvious Receiving Yards, and put Davis' rankings in each category at the top for purposes of comparison.  I had to reduce the size of the spreadsheet to get it on.  Hopefully it can be expanded.  

 

 

Gabe Davis being that high in yards and TD/1D and middle of the road in targets goes to show his relatively high end deep threat ability.

 

I will continue to say that most folks want to surround Allen with a safer option from an "always open" perspective.

 

I think the ideal Bills offense is Diggs moving around, Davis deep threat on the boundary, and a slot WR chain mover so we get 3rd and 2 instead of 3rd and 9 on a completion if the first two aren't open.

 

Really, Davis is WR2 AND 3 in this offense, because there is no WR3, and that's where a lot of his critics hit him.

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Gabe Davis being that high in yards and TD/1D and middle of the road in targets goes to show his relatively high end deep threat ability.

 

I will continue to say that most folks want to surround Allen with a safer option from an "always open" perspective.

 

I think the ideal Bills offense is Diggs moving around, Davis deep threat on the boundary, and a slot WR chain mover so we get 3rd and 2 instead of 3rd and 9 on a completion if the first two aren't open.

 

Really, Davis is WR2 AND 3 in this offense, because there is no WR3, and that's where a lot of his critics hit him.

 

Isn't that the reasoning behind trading up to draft Kincaid?  

 

 

[FireChans]

Just now, PBF81 said:

 

Isn't that the reasoning behind trading up to draft Kincaid?  

 

 

Yes, but he ain't the WR3 in this offense yet. Hopefully he will be eventually.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

The best way to have a great #2 WR is to have two #1 WRs….

 

Really the only way to do this in the modern era is to pay for one and draft another on a cost controlled, rookie deal. There are some exceptions (Jax, Bucs, etc) but those teams don’t pay a franchise QB.

 

When you have money tied up like us, you can’t afford more than a #1 WR, so you have to get one on the cheap. 
 

That being said, Gabe is a nice player for us. He won’t be here next year. Can’t afford paying a #2, even if he’s earned it. If he isn’t WR1 caliber, you have to let him go and replace with a cheaper, higher ceiling option.

 

They should have already started this process, but they have went a different route. I fully expect it this draft 

[SCBills]

8 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

Really, Davis is WR2 AND 3 in this offense, because there is no WR3, and that's where a lot of his critics hit him.

As a Davis critic, this is honestly a good point. 
 

For the criticism we have for Davis (and Dorsey) much of it comes in 1.25 years where the WR room has looked to be poorly constructed. 
 

Edited October 17, 2023 by SCBills

[Einstein's Dog]

14 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

I also don't want to take a position out-of-the-gate here.  I do think that discussing coaching or Beane is fair game since it stands to reason that this is what they wanted, and they even stated that they like Gabe as a #2 during the offseason and strongly believed in him.  So there would seem to be a strong relationship between the situation and McBeane.  

 

It looks to me that you are interpreting this to mean this is what they wanted.  I believe they investigated getting OBJ and DHop as possible upgrades. 

 

And you can have all the stats in the world but playing the WR2 in the Bills offense is a golden opportunity.  Kind of like the opportunity Singletary had as RB, average-ish players can put up good stats because of the usage.  Excellent players would excel with this opportunity.

[PBF81]

55 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

It looks to me that you are interpreting this to mean this is what they wanted.  I believe they investigated getting OBJ and DHop as possible upgrades. 

 

And you can have all the stats in the world but playing the WR2 in the Bills offense is a golden opportunity.  Kind of like the opportunity Singletary had as RB, average-ish players can put up good stats because of the usage.  Excellent players would excel with this opportunity.

 

Are you hedging on their behalf?  To start, all I did was put up some factual info.  I haven't opined in this thread and will try not to.  I haven't interpreted anything in it.  

 

But to your point, they really haven't done much to bring in the type of talent that would be better than Davis, apart from sign Diggs, right?  Or do you view the two 5th, three 6ths, and 7th picks that they used on WRs apart from Davis to be indicative that they were not satisfied with the situation?  

 

Whom they discussed bringing in here isn't really material.  What is material is the situation that they have created, no?  

 

We talk about it here, but not one person here had anything to do with that, right.  

 

Are you saying that they haven't been satisfied?  If not, why not do you think?  What would the problem have been then in that case?  

 

Let's not forget, Beane's six seasons in and McD is seven seasons in, we're well past the "getting his own guys in here" thing.  That ship sailed several seasons ago.  What's here in port is their cargo.  Right?  Or do you view it differently?  

 

More relevantly I would probably ask which of the receivers on that list would you prefer here?  How much do you think a WR like that would cost to bring in?  And what difference would it make?  

 

 

[FireChans]

38 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

But to your point, they really haven't done much to bring in the type of talent that would be better than Davis, apart from sign Diggs, right?  Or do you view the two 5th, three 6ths, and 7th picks that they used on WRs apart from Davis to be indicative that they were not satisfied with the situation?  

 

Whom they discussed bringing in here isn't really material.  What is material is the situation that they have created, no?  

 

We talk about it here, but not one person here had anything to do with that, right.  

 

Are you saying that they haven't been satisfied?  If not, why not do you think?  What would the problem have been then in that case?  

 

Let's not forget, Beane's six seasons in and McD is seven seasons in, we're well past the "getting his own guys in here" thing.  That ship sailed several seasons ago.  What's here in port is their cargo.  Right?  Or do you view it differently?  

 

More relevantly I would probably ask which of the receivers on that list would you prefer here?  How much do you think a WR like that would cost to bring in?  And what difference would it make?  

Incredible post. We spend so much time playing armchair GM on here, but most folks talk themselves into Harty and Sherfield and the upgraded receiving core, then switch to "we need more weapons" by week 6 like it's a big surprise the JAGs are still JAGs.

 

I personally think Beane has failed to make reasonable upgrades to the WR group (he would probably agree, seeing as he had to call Cole and Smoke Brown off their couch last year in one of the saddest reunions in Bills history), and I believe the coaches have failed to squeeze any production out of the other bums in the room.

 

Which, to your point, would adding a Michael Thomas help if the coaches couldn't, or wouldn't use him?

 

1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:

It looks to me that you are interpreting this to mean this is what they wanted.  I believe they investigated getting OBJ and DHop as possible upgrades. 

 

And you can have all the stats in the world but playing the WR2 in the Bills offense is a golden opportunity.  Kind of like the opportunity Singletary had as RB, average-ish players can put up good stats because of the usage.  Excellent players would excel with this opportunity.

Oh, they investigated! Well then, I guess that's all we can ask.

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

As a Davis critic, this is honestly a good point. 
 

For the criticism we have for Davis (and Dorsey) much of it comes in 1.25 years where the WR room has looked to be poorly constructed. 
 

We went from Gabe being asked to be a boundary WR and third option (which he excelled at) to asking Gabe to be the boundary WR, second option, and sprinkle in some Cole Beasley magic too, and it's not a surprise he can't do it all.

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Incredible post. We spend so much time playing armchair GM on here, but most folks talk themselves into Harty and Sherfield and the upgraded receiving core, then switch to "we need more weapons" by week 6 like it's a big surprise the JAGs are still JAGs.

 

I personally think Beane has failed to make reasonable upgrades to the WR group (he would probably agree, seeing as he had to call Cole and Smoke Brown off their couch last year in one of the saddest reunions in Bills history), and I believe the coaches have failed to squeeze any production out of the other bums in the room.

 

Which, to your point, would adding a Michael Thomas help if the coaches couldn't, or wouldn't use him?

 

Oh, they investigated! Well then, I guess that's all we can ask.

I don't think anyone was all that excited for Harty and Sherfield

 

The lack of weapons thing is a running theme the last 3 or so years

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I don't think anyone was all that excited for Harty and Sherfield

 

The lack of weapons thing is a running theme the last 3 or so years

Meh, I read a lot about how Sherfield and Harty were upgrades in the WR room.  Hope always springs eternal in Bills land when the JAG deck chairs are rearranged.

[GoBills808]

Just now, FireChans said:

Meh, I read a lot about how Sherfield and Harty were upgrades in the WR room.  Hope always springs eternal in Bills land when the JAG deck chairs are rearranged.

I don't see how folks can't get this 

 

They turned Isaiah McKenzie into a viable option at wideout ffs

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I don't see how folks can't get this 

 

They turned Isaiah McKenzie into a viable option at wideout ffs

?

[GoBills808]

9 minutes ago, FireChans said:

?

😂😂 Wrong thread

[Scott7975]

So basically, Gabe is a deep ball specialist one trick pony in an offense that wants to now play dink and dunk.

[Thrivefourfive]

So we could have Robert Toods for all that less money for all these years instead of this Buffalo Bills phenomenon Gabe Davis and his new deal..?

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

I don't think anyone was all that excited for Harty and Sherfield

 

Firechans is right.  I got into many an argument suggesting that Sherfield anyway wouldn't do much.  He's on pace for 14 catches for a little over 100 yards and 0 TDs.  

 

There was more excitement for Harty, but again, he's right when he says that everyone considered it an upgrade.  

 

FWIW  

 

 

42 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

So basically, Gabe is a deep ball specialist one trick pony in an offense that wants to now play dink and dunk.

 

From where I sit, if you can clearly explain to everyone that's reading what the offense is trying to do with the talent that they have, I think everyone would be grateful if you'd share that.   

 

 

[HalftimeAdjustment]

I'm on board with the idea that what we're lacking is a stronger WR3.

[Scott7975]

7 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

From where I sit, if you can clearly explain to everyone that's reading what the offense is trying to do with the talent that they have, I think everyone would be grateful if you'd share that.   

 

 

I don't even think Dorsey knows what this offense is trying to do.  He needs to go.  He is not a good OC. What I do know is they are emphasising taking Josh out of Josh.  He no longer just takes off with the ball when he sees he can clearly grab 10-20 yards with his own legs.  Coaching staff is too afraid of Cam Newton.  They also are actively taking away Josh risk throws that yes... sometimes hurt us but more often than not is a superstar play and what made this pathetic offensive system work.  Those are the two things that Josh is special at that makes him elite.  The same two things the coaching staff took out of him to try and turn him into Tom Brady which is not what he is special at.  Nor do we have the players or play design to make that offense work.

 

One other thing I know is that this offense, even in Daboll years, has a tendency to shoot itself in the foot and end up in 3rd and 15+.  I use to say to myself "no problem, Josh got this."  Now I don't.

Edited October 17, 2023 by Scott7975