Scripted play analysis Daboll v. Dorsey (The Court Case of the Millenium)

[boyst]

i've read this and been on this page for a while.

 

however, i will point out as i did after week 2 when i was fussing about how poorly our defensive playcalling was against the Raiders.

 

their scripted plays came out and wrecked McDermotts defense. and there wasn't 1 excuse due to injury at that time. the raiders exposed our defense in that game and if you watch those first two series it was clear they knew our weakneses.

 

they didn't sustain good playcalling and completely choked the rest of the game, though.

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, boyst said:

i've read this and been on this page for a while.

 

however, i will point out as i did after week 2 when i was fussing about how poorly our defensive playcalling was against the Raiders.

 

their scripted plays came out and wrecked McDermotts defense. and there wasn't 1 excuse due to injury at that time. the raiders exposed our defense in that game and if you watch those first two series it was clear they knew our weakneses.

 

they didn't sustain good playcalling and completely choked the rest of the game, though.

 

This is patently false.  The Bills are notoriously not great on D on first drives but then improve as the game goes on by leaps and bounds.  Go back to last year and see how many teams scored on first drives against us and then see what they did for the rest of the game. Usually it was not much. Bills adjust on D exceptionally well as the game goes on. especially after seeing what the other team is trying to do.

Edited October 18, 2023 by Big Turk

[boyst]

5 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

This is patently false.  The Bills are notoriously not great on D on first drives but then improve as the game goes on by leaps and bounds.  Go back to last year and see how many teams scored on first drives against us and then see what they did for the rest of the game. Usually it was not much. Bills adjust on D exceptionally well as the game goes on. especially after seeing what the other team is trying to do.

ok, if this is true it is just as concerning that we cannot scheme and plan accordingly.

 

which may make sense that when teams come out and beat us hard and physical with a good gameplan we struggle.

 

so far i don't see much different with McD than with Frazier

[Big Turk]

6 minutes ago, boyst said:

ok, if this is true it is just as concerning that we cannot scheme and plan accordingly.

 

which may make sense that when teams come out and beat us hard and physical with a good gameplan we struggle.

 

so far i don't see much different with McD than with Frazier

 

How often has that happened that we got "beat"?  You realize the Bills have the best record in the NFL since 2020 right?  They also lead the NFL in point differential during that time by something like 170 points over 2nd place Kansas City.  They also lead the NFL in allowing the fewest points in the NFL with an average of 18.9 points against. Like literally, WTF are you talking about?

 

Next time have some actually real basis for the points you are trying to bring up, because the only basis for this is in fantasyland.

 

Talk about having no perspective of the rest of the NFL.

 

 

Edited October 18, 2023 by Big Turk

[Westside]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

How often has that happened that we got "beat"?  You realize the Bills have the best record in the NFL since 2020 right?  They also lead the NFL in point differential during that time by something like 170 points over 2nd place Kansas City.  

 

Talk about having no perspective of the rest of the NFL.

Talk about choking in the playoffs then! If we are so great in the regular season, why do we suck in the playoffs? I think, IMHO it has to be the coaching.

[Big Turk]

Just now, Westside said:

Talk about choking in the playoffs then! If we are so great in the regular season, why do we suck in the playoffs? I think, IMHO it has to be the coaching.

 

I think that's what we have to wait for.  McD seems to be far more aggressive in getting after the QB and turning guys loose than Frazier was, which is where those issues seemed to lie...playing soft as butter coverages and not getting pressure is a recipe for disaster

[FireChans]

On 10/17/2023 at 9:03 AM, Buffalo_Stampede said:

People understand a lot of these run calls are checks by Josh Allen right? He gets a look he likes and makes a decision.

 

 

Every run doesn’t get 10. I’m aware sometimes these are checks, and even a run for minimal positive yardage doesn’t necessitate a bad call.

[Don Otreply]

On 10/17/2023 at 8:56 AM, Big Turk said:

There are a lot of times that watching Cover1 all-22 clips that the spacing looks very poor...as in there are 4 Bill receivers within 10 yards of each other and huge open spaces with nobody.  It makes the windows much tighter than they should be since all those defenders are being drawn to the same area.  

 

Seems to happen a lot when they go to those condensed formations.  Think Dorsey needs to really examine these in more detail and work on better utilizing the open space available to him instead of having players bunching up all in one area.  I know this was mentioned at times last year also, but it's even more noticeable this year since we have been using a lot of the condensed formations with 12 personnel.

The compressing of receivers into the same area of the field has been happening for a while now, last season as well, Utilization of personnel and play design has not been up to par, Dorsey seems to have “regressed” in the creativity category. 
 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited October 18, 2023 by Don Otreply

[boyst]

16 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

How often has that happened that we got "beat"?  You realize the Bills have the best record in the NFL since 2020 right?  They also lead the NFL in point differential during that time by something like 170 points over 2nd place Kansas City.  They also lead the NFL in allowing the fewest points in the NFL with an average of 18.9 points against. Like literally, WTF are you talking about?

 

Next time have some actually real basis for the points you are trying to bring up, because the only basis for this is in fantasyland.

 

Talk about having no perspective of the rest of the NFL.

 

 

we are great in the regular season. paper tigers with all the pretty stripes. when it coems to the playoffs we have the best, world exclusive excuses.

 

mcdermott is going to run out of them. unfortunately, it won't be this year. the one i have on my bingo card that hasn't been used is that we lost Edmunds.

 

regardless, we have been beaten by lesser teams too often. we have been whooped by bigger teams. we show up unprepared when it counts.

 

as @Kirby Jackson has said, it is perfect here. does the coach coach above the talent the team offers? mcdermott certainly does not.

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, boyst said:

we are great in the regular season. paper tigers with all the pretty stripes. when it coems to the playoffs we have the best, world exclusive excuses.

 

mcdermott is going to run out of them. unfortunately, it won't be this year. the one i have on my bingo card that hasn't been used is that we lost Edmunds.

 

regardless, we have been beaten by lesser teams too often. we have been whooped by bigger teams. we show up unprepared when it counts.

 

as @Kirby Jackson has said, it is perfect here. does the coach coach above the talent the team offers? mcdermott certainly does not.

 

You realize that we beat bad teams far more often than any other team in the NFL does and far worse also right?

 

Guess we will see. Defense doesn't seem to really do much in the playoffs much anymore for anyone. At least not when it's a very good offense. It's all about scoring points.  Did you watch the Super Bowl?

Edited October 18, 2023 by Big Turk

[boyst]

4 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

You realize that we beat bad teams far more often than any other team in the NFL does and far worse also right?

 

Guess we will see. Defense doesn't seem to really do much in the playoffs much anymore for anyone. At least not when it's a very good offense. It's all about scoring points.  Did you watch the Super Bowl?

i do.

 

i don't think we are disagreeing at all fwiw

 

 i think we are seeing things from a different perspective with little variance in the conclusion.

 

yes, i watched the super bowl. the defense finally caught up this year. i think we are back in a spell where good defenses will matter more than the last few seasons. new defensive concepts are out there and just being grasped. we will see if mcdermott can grasp it.

[Alphadawg7]

On 10/16/2023 at 5:40 PM, FireChans said:

Common knowledge among the NFL is that the first 12-15 plays from scrimmage is "scripted," partly based on what the team thinks the opposing team is going to do on defense and partly based on what was worked on throughout the week.

 

I remember the Bills had a great run of having a solid script.  I think we had a streak scoring on the opening possession going at one point.

 

So I decided to do the analysis from the "Josh Allen is elite" era.  The script is probably the biggest thing the OC does from a gameplan perspective and is much easier to measure than "adjustments."

 

Let's look at the numbers!

 

2020: 7/16 games had a TD or FG on opening drive

 

2021: 11/17 games had a TD or FG on opening drive

 

2022: 3 straight to open the year, and 4 of our first 6 but ultimately 6/16 on the year.

 

2023:  2/6 so far

 

So what does this tell us?  To me, this is a clear indication that our scripted "easy plays" in film study and gameplan preparation are anything but easy lately.

 

Even more troubling is the steep decline from the first 6 weeks of 2022.  I'm sure there's something to be said for tendencies that teams look for and gather info on, so I'm not sure if that is significant or not and may have been partially buoyed by no one knowing what Dorsey liked.

 

This definitely lends credence to how laborous the offense looked through the second half of 2022 into our current season this year. Now, 4/6 was probably unsustainable, but we have really only scored on 4 opening possessions of our last 16 regular season games?  With Josh Allen at QB?

 

I'm sure I could have done some better datamining, but I think this is a good start.  Daboll's 2021 offense was clearly elite from a script perspective. Dorsey's was even better for the first 6 weeks in 2022 and has fallen off a cliff since.  What is the reason?

 

 

How can that be?  Ive been told that because the offense is still top 5 ranked that proves Dorsey isn't the problem.

 

 

 

[HoofHearted]

45 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

This is of much more concern...basically Dorsey is making it simple for defenses to defend them out of certain formations because they run the same patterns/route combinations and do not give any window dressing to make it look like something different at all.  Makes it easy to know what's coming.  This is virtually inexcusable.  Motions/shifts/varied look/formation...SOMETHING to make it look different and give them something to think about, but nope, same thing every time in certain formations. He did a LOT of window dressing against Miami and virtually none in the games since.

 

 

This isn't anything crazy or specific to us. This is every team ever in football. There's a finite number of route concepts that can be run out of different sets due to alignment, spacing, etc. Tendencies are going to form. I can assure you this isn't the only concept we're running out of any of our 2x2 sets. This narrative he's pushing that Okereke played outside his scheme to make a play is laughable. The Giants were in Cover 6. Okereke is the 3 Quick player in that coverage scheme. When the back releases out Knox becomes the 3Q player and so that's why Okereke is pushing towards him. Josh is trying to throw the anticipation ball and hit it right off of Okereke's back, but the issue is Okereke is squared up. He's not man turning with Knox. Josh probably didn't recognize it was Cover 6 because it was a half field read, but if he lofts that ball the backside Safety has to drive the Dig in Cover 4 and Knox would have walked in for a touchdown.

[boyst]

2 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

This isn't anything crazy or specific to us. This is every team ever in football. There's a finite number of route concepts that can be run out of different sets due to alignment, spacing, etc. Tendencies are going to form. I can assure you this isn't the only concept we're running out of any of our 2x2 sets. This narrative he's pushing that Okereke played outside his scheme to make a play is laughable. The Giants were in Cover 6. Okereke is the 3 Quick player in that coverage scheme. When the back releases out Knox becomes the 3Q player and so that's why Okereke is pushing towards him. Josh is trying to throw the anticipation ball and hit it right off of Okereke's back, but the issue is Okereke is squared up. He's not man turning with Knox. Josh probably didn't recognize it was Cover 6 because it was a half field read, but if he lofts that ball the backside Safety has to drive the Dig in Cover 4 and Knox would have walked in for a touchdown.

The defenses have caught up with the offenses. It's fun to see. Cover 4 and cover 6 are making great leaps.

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

This isn't anything crazy or specific to us. This is every team ever in football. There's a finite number of route concepts that can be run out of different sets due to alignment, spacing, etc. Tendencies are going to form. I can assure you this isn't the only concept we're running out of any of our 2x2 sets. This narrative he's pushing that Okereke played outside his scheme to make a play is laughable. The Giants were in Cover 6. Okereke is the 3 Quick player in that coverage scheme. When the back releases out Knox becomes the 3Q player and so that's why Okereke is pushing towards him. Josh is trying to throw the anticipation ball and hit it right off of Okereke's back, but the issue is Okereke is squared up. He's not man turning with Knox. Josh probably didn't recognize it was Cover 6 because it was a half field read, but if he lofts that ball the backside Safety has to drive the Dig in Cover 4 and Knox would have walked in for a touchdown.

 

To be fair he did mention in a post below that this isn't dissimilar to other teams, just that other teams do a better job dressing it up better at times.  

 

Also, since you brought up spacing...do you feel the Bills have a spacing problem too often on routes?  Have seen this brought up before many times going back to last year where receivers are often times very close to each other downfield on plays when it would seem to make more sense to have them further apart to create better windows and less defenders in the area.  I get that in some concepts like rubs and stacks, etc the receivers will be close together at the line, but usually those players all end up in different places on the field and not close together like seems to be the case on some plays where Bills players are covered well.

 

[HoofHearted]

3 minutes ago, boyst said:

The defenses have caught up with the offenses. It's fun to see. Cover 4 and cover 6 are making great leaps.

What do you mean by this?

[boyst]

2 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

What do you mean by this?

They're having more success than the last several years of play. Partially due to better athletes and development of DB's with the adaption of the game, at least in my opinion.

 

This could also be due to lack of quality offensive positions. OL athleticism is down to near lows, and RBs are not the best athletes any longer. 

[Big Turk]

26 minutes ago, boyst said:

i do.

 

i don't think we are disagreeing at all fwiw

 

 i think we are seeing things from a different perspective with little variance in the conclusion.

 

yes, i watched the super bowl. the defense finally caught up this year. i think we are back in a spell where good defenses will matter more than the last few seasons. new defensive concepts are out there and just being grasped. we will see if mcdermott can grasp it.

 

Fair points...I guess we will see.  Jets and Browns seem to be leading the charge for D this year. Both have been playing lights out.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

Fair points...I guess we will see.  Jets and Browns seem to be leading the charge for D this year. Both have been playing lights out.

Jim Schwartz helleve DC. Coaching matters lots.

[HoofHearted]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

To be fair he did mention in a post below that this isn't dissimilar to other teams, just that other teams do a better job dressing it up better at times.  

 

Also, since you brought up spacing...do you feel the Bills have a spacing problem too often on routes?  Have seen this brought up before many times going back to last year where receivers are often times very close to each other downfield on plays when it would seem to make more sense to have them further apart to create better windows and less defenders in the area.  I get that in some concepts like rubs and stacks, etc the receivers will be close together at the line, but usually those players all end up in different places on the field and not close together like seems to be the case on some plays where Bills players are covered well.

 

Every instance of a spacing issue that I've seen posted on here or by people on social media is a still shot of us running mesh. That's the whole design of the concept. Traditionally it's a rub concept vs man, and if it's zone those two players will sit in the empty spaces created in the underneath zones. We run a slightly varied version that makes things even easier for our receivers running the mesh concept. Essentially they're running their mesh crossers regardless of coverage, which eliminates the post-snap read. We then sit a player in that low hole area directly behind the backers so that we have an option vs zone coverage. Essentially Josh waits for the crossers to pull the zone defenders back out with them and then hits the Spot sitting in the middle of the formation. Saw this thrown to Diggs this week, and is one of Dorsey's favorite concepts on 3rd and short to medium because it's an all coverage beater. Outside of that I haven't seen anything else that has guys running close together.