Where Did All The Young Men... Offenses Go?

[corta765]

Bills mafia is currently finishing burning down after another lack luster performance by the offense that thankfully this time did result in a win. Overall the Bills are fine, odds are like the last few years they are in their mid season shakes and I would expect that they will have more good days then bad even with the schedule coming up. Allen is having the best season of his career passing and 17 always gives hope even if the coaching staff has some dreadful days/decisions at times.

 

But this post is not fully dedicated to just the Bills right now. If it feels like this NFL season offenses are sluggish, games you expected as shootout's aren't, and that even the most consistent offenses are not what they have been your 100% correct. Points scored per team each game is at 21.7 which would be the lowest since 2017 which was also 21.7 ppg and before that 2009 when it was 21.5 ppg. Of the top 5 offenses in ppg in 2022 only DET/BUF are actually averaging more PPG with DET up 1.4 ppg and Buffalo .4 ppg while KC/PHI/DAL down anywhere from .7 ppg DAL to  4.7 ppg KC. We are 6 games in so we are no longer at a small sample size and while I would expect teams like KC/CIN to probably find a higher gear this season, overall offenses across the NFL have had their fair share of struggles to some truly dreadful performances across the board.

 

Is season an anomaly? Probably to some extent, since the change in rules on QB hits post 2008 when Brady got his knee tore up, the average in ppg has went from 20-21 ppg pre 2009 to 22-23 ppg with NFL offenses peaking at 24.8 ppg in the 2020 season. 2020 it was said offenses had the edge as stadiums were quieter, with no pre season defenses actually had to figure themselves out as the season went whereas smart offense minds could throw out some pretty exotic plans without a match, and you saw mesh of young elite QBs rising at once with Mahomes/Allen/Lamar/Burrow/Hurts/Herbert and older vets like Brady/Rodgers have career years. But besides 2020 from 2018 through 2021 teams were averaging over 23 ppg across the board, so 2020 while maybe inflated a little also was just the genesis of some truly wonderful offensive play.

 

So what the heck has happened? A few major changes in the game have altered landscapes and the ease of offense:

• D coordinators this year all have not only embraced the cover 2 shell to stop being beat over the top with ease, but the bend not break model on defense is your best friend against an elite QB. They are going to make their plays, but if you force them to have to earn it and add a few more plays per drive you giving yourself an opportunity for a turnover, penalty, or sack also. The cover 2 shell change in 2021 that forced the elite QBs to adjust a bit no longer is just a band aid for defenses, it has been weaponized now.
• The young QBs who took the offense explosion by force in 2018 are now paid and talent now is spread across more lineups. Tyreek Hill is probably the gold example of a player leaving because of the $ because they couldn't afford him. Hurts still has some time left, but the rest of the new guard has sizable contracts that force you to pick who you pay and how you draft. 
• Best way forever to beat a great QB is a pass rush. The talent at pass rusher whether DE/LB that has entered the league the past few years is absolutely wild. Teams are finding ways to pressure QBs better then ever while not sending the house and leaving a quality amount of players in the secondary.
• Defenses have adjusted to the mobile nature that todays QBs have brought to the table. Aaron Rodgers was the alpha for many years compared to Manning/Brady/Big Ben of a guy who could make water into wine. Russell Wilson was probably the other good example of this, but Mahomes/Allen/Lamar all entered with 2 years of each other followed by Hurts recently and Burrow/Herbert are no slouches either. Offenses had the advantage for quite a while as new fun and exciting schemes took precedent and defenses had to catch up. While now defenses have caught up as far more tape exists at this point on the best ways to stop these guys. Additionally while its great to see Lamar or Josh run 50 yards, longevity wise you'd rather them pass until it gets to a point it really matters.
• Teams have become very hesitant to play guys in preseason out of risk of injury but as more star offensive players don't play it also is taking offenses longer to get up to speed. There is no perfect answer to this, 2020 showed with no preseason it is a far more even playing field out of the get go but I truthfully would take a slow month so I have a full season vs losing my starter.
• Finally teams have embraced running the ball a bit again as the caliber of talent coming out yearly is allowing for groups of backfields that can move the ball cheaply and conversely allow lesser teams to run the clock more against higher powered opponents. I strongly doubt we ever see the halcyon days of running the ball 60-40 to pass, but it does seem to be more of a point of emphasis for the first time in a long while. 

 

While last night was slog at points I would encourage you to look more broadly at the league in general outside of Miami (as wonderkid McDaniel is doing some pretty cool stuff and still has cap run right now) because the teams that have been your standard for the last bunch of years all across the board are having issues at different points. Normally offenses have the edge in Sept/Oct before it flips Nov on, but that just has not been the way this year. On the flipside it is very possible teams like KC/BUF/CIN all hit their stride in the back half of the year on offenses and the fireworks are quite steady as the potential is there with each QB. But this is probably going to end up as one of those weird years that everyone looks back at as either a demarcation point in how defenses started attacking offenses and they got the edge for once, or the culmination of many years of of great offense play having a clunker instead.

[Utah John]

3 hours ago, corta765 said:

Bills mafia is currently finishing burning down after another lack luster performance by the offense that thankfully this time did result in a win. Overall the Bills are fine, odds are like the last few years they are in their mid season shakes and I would expect that they will have more good days then bad even with the schedule coming up. Allen is having the best season of his career passing and 17 always gives hope even if the coaching staff has some dreadful days/decisions at times.

 

But this post is not fully dedicated to just the Bills right now. If it feels like this NFL season offenses are sluggish, games you expected as shootout's aren't, and that even the most consistent offenses are not what they have been your 100% correct. Points scored per team each game is at 21.7 which would be the lowest since 2017 which was also 21.7 ppg and before that 2009 when it was 21.5 ppg. Of the top 5 offenses in ppg in 2022 only DET/BUF are actually averaging more PPG with DET up 1.4 ppg and Buffalo .4 ppg while KC/PHI/DAL down anywhere from .7 ppg DAL to  4.7 ppg KC. We are 6 games in so we are no longer at a small sample size and while I would expect teams like KC/CIN to probably find a higher gear this season, overall offenses across the NFL have had their fair share of struggles to some truly dreadful performances across the board.

 

Is season an anomaly? Probably to some extent, since the change in rules on QB hits post 2008 when Brady got his knee tore up, the average in ppg has went from 20-21 ppg pre 2009 to 22-23 ppg with NFL offenses peaking at 24.8 ppg in the 2020 season. 2020 it was said offenses had the edge as stadiums were quieter, with no pre season defenses actually had to figure themselves out as the season went whereas smart offense minds could throw out some pretty exotic plans without a match, and you saw mesh of young elite QBs rising at once with Mahomes/Allen/Lamar/Burrow/Hurts/Herbert and older vets like Brady/Rodgers have career years. But besides 2020 from 2018 through 2021 teams were averaging over 23 ppg across the board, so 2020 while maybe inflated a little also was just the genesis of some truly wonderful offensive play.

 

So what the heck has happened? A few major changes in the game have altered landscapes and the ease of offense:

• D coordinators this year all have not only embraced the cover 2 shell to stop being beat over the top with ease, but the bend not break model on defense is your best friend against an elite QB. They are going to make their plays, but if you force them to have to earn it and add a few more plays per drive you giving yourself an opportunity for a turnover, penalty, or sack also. The cover 2 shell change in 2021 that forced the elite QBs to adjust a bit no longer is just a band aid for defenses, it has been weaponized now.
• The young QBs who took the offense explosion by force in 2018 are now paid and talent now is spread across more lineups. Tyreek Hill is probably the gold example of a player leaving because of the $ because they couldn't afford him. Hurts still has some time left, but the rest of the new guard has sizable contracts that force you to pick who you pay and how you draft. 
• Best way forever to beat a great QB is a pass rush. The talent at pass rusher whether DE/LB that has entered the league the past few years is absolutely wild. Teams are finding ways to pressure QBs better then ever while not sending the house and leaving a quality amount of players in the secondary.
• Defenses have adjusted to the mobile nature that todays QBs have brought to the table. Aaron Rodgers was the alpha for many years compared to Manning/Brady/Big Ben of a guy who could make water into wine. Russell Wilson was probably the other good example of this, but Mahomes/Allen/Lamar all entered with 2 years of each other followed by Hurts recently and Burrow/Herbert are no slouches either. Offenses had the advantage for quite a while as new fun and exciting schemes took precedent and defenses had to catch up. While now defenses have caught up as far more tape exists at this point on the best ways to stop these guys. Additionally while its great to see Lamar or Josh run 50 yards, longevity wise you'd rather them pass until it gets to a point it really matters.
• Teams have become very hesitant to play guys in preseason out of risk of injury but as more star offensive players don't play it also is taking offenses longer to get up to speed. There is no perfect answer to this, 2020 showed with no preseason it is a far more even playing field out of the get go but I truthfully would take a slow month so I have a full season vs losing my starter.
• Finally teams have embraced running the ball a bit again as the caliber of talent coming out yearly is allowing for groups of backfields that can move the ball cheaply and conversely allow lesser teams to run the clock more against higher powered opponents. I strongly doubt we ever see the halcyon days of running the ball 60-40 to pass, but it does seem to be more of a point of emphasis for the first time in a long while. 

 

While last night was slog at points I would encourage you to look more broadly at the league in general outside of Miami (as wonderkid McDaniel is doing some pretty cool stuff and still has cap run right now) because the teams that have been your standard for the last bunch of years all across the board are having issues at different points. Normally offenses have the edge in Sept/Oct before it flips Nov on, but that just has not been the way this year. On the flipside it is very possible teams like KC/BUF/CIN all hit their stride in the back half of the year on offenses and the fireworks are quite steady as the potential is there with each QB. But this is probably going to end up as one of those weird years that everyone looks back at as either a demarcation point in how defenses started attacking offenses and they got the edge for once, or the culmination of many years of of great offense play having a clunker instead.

Defenses are having more success getting QBs down.  

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/sacks-per-game

 

Compare 2022 with 2023.  Almost every team is getting more sacks per game this year than they did last year.

[Charles Romes]

It’s become impossible to grow offensive linemen, especially tackles, maybe due to better PED testing or kids moving to soccer instead. You really need an incubator program. I knew pass rushers were in for a big year when traffic cone quessenberry was signed to an active roster within hours of getting cut. 

[corta765]

1 hour ago, Charles Romes said:

It’s become impossible to grow offensive linemen, especially tackles, maybe due to better PED testing or kids moving to soccer instead. You really need an incubator program. I knew pass rushers were in for a big year when traffic cone quessenberry was signed to an active roster within hours of getting cut. 

def feels like getting a good lineman is luck so much anymore. I get why Beane  ow is skittish to let Brown go after Teller ended up becoming great.

[Coach Tuesday]

Threads like these = why I come here.

[Saxum]

1 hour ago, Charles Romes said:

It’s become impossible to grow offensive linemen, especially tackles, maybe due to better PED testing or kids moving to soccer instead. You really need an incubator program. I knew pass rushers were in for a big year when traffic cone quessenberry was signed to an active roster within hours of getting cut. 

 

The issue is defense linemen come in waves but few offense lines have adequate substitutions.  The best teams have are decent swing tackles who cannot perform well enough when pressed to play full time or players like Bates who are good substitutes but not excel in any one position.  I was hoping Kramer would improve offense line stock.  

[Charles Romes]

1 minute ago, Limeaid said:

 

The issue is defense linemen come in waves but few offense lines have adequate substitutions.  The best teams have are decent swing tackles who cannot perform well enough when pressed to play full time or players like Bates who are good substitutes but not excel in any one position.  I was hoping Kramer would improve offense line stock.  

  
 

I think Kroger has improved the line stock in tough building times. Quessenberry was clearly outplayed by incubator types, and signed to an active roster immediately. 

[corta765]

29 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

  
 

I think Kroger has improved the line stock in tough building times. Quessenberry was clearly outplayed by incubator types, and signed to an active roster immediately. 

Agreed. I am very curious how they do against CIN because both games last year the O line looked over matched for a multitude of reasons. This year they are clearly better and they also seem to have a bit more of edge

[Olliemets]

Great thesis 

Thank you

[Dr.Sack]

Good analysis. 

[AlfaBill]

That last Palmer catch was very similar to Josh last pass which Knox dropped. To those who say it was a bad throw…..

[Marcus Aurelius]

7 hours ago, corta765 said:

Bills mafia is currently finishing burning down after another lack luster performance by the offense that thankfully this time did result in a win. Overall the Bills are fine, odds are like the last few years they are in their mid season shakes and I would expect that they will have more good days then bad even with the schedule coming up. Allen is having the best season of his career passing and 17 always gives hope even if the coaching staff has some dreadful days/decisions at times.

 

But this post is not fully dedicated to just the Bills right now. If it feels like this NFL season offenses are sluggish, games you expected as shootout's aren't, and that even the most consistent offenses are not what they have been your 100% correct. Points scored per team each game is at 21.7 which would be the lowest since 2017 which was also 21.7 ppg and before that 2009 when it was 21.5 ppg. Of the top 5 offenses in ppg in 2022 only DET/BUF are actually averaging more PPG with DET up 1.4 ppg and Buffalo .4 ppg while KC/PHI/DAL down anywhere from .7 ppg DAL to  4.7 ppg KC. We are 6 games in so we are no longer at a small sample size and while I would expect teams like KC/CIN to probably find a higher gear this season, overall offenses across the NFL have had their fair share of struggles to some truly dreadful performances across the board.

 

Is season an anomaly? Probably to some extent, since the change in rules on QB hits post 2008 when Brady got his knee tore up, the average in ppg has went from 20-21 ppg pre 2009 to 22-23 ppg with NFL offenses peaking at 24.8 ppg in the 2020 season. 2020 it was said offenses had the edge as stadiums were quieter, with no pre season defenses actually had to figure themselves out as the season went whereas smart offense minds could throw out some pretty exotic plans without a match, and you saw mesh of young elite QBs rising at once with Mahomes/Allen/Lamar/Burrow/Hurts/Herbert and older vets like Brady/Rodgers have career years. But besides 2020 from 2018 through 2021 teams were averaging over 23 ppg across the board, so 2020 while maybe inflated a little also was just the genesis of some truly wonderful offensive play.

 

So what the heck has happened? A few major changes in the game have altered landscapes and the ease of offense:

• D coordinators this year all have not only embraced the cover 2 shell to stop being beat over the top with ease, but the bend not break model on defense is your best friend against an elite QB. They are going to make their plays, but if you force them to have to earn it and add a few more plays per drive you giving yourself an opportunity for a turnover, penalty, or sack also. The cover 2 shell change in 2021 that forced the elite QBs to adjust a bit no longer is just a band aid for defenses, it has been weaponized now.
• The young QBs who took the offense explosion by force in 2018 are now paid and talent now is spread across more lineups. Tyreek Hill is probably the gold example of a player leaving because of the $ because they couldn't afford him. Hurts still has some time left, but the rest of the new guard has sizable contracts that force you to pick who you pay and how you draft. 
• Best way forever to beat a great QB is a pass rush. The talent at pass rusher whether DE/LB that has entered the league the past few years is absolutely wild. Teams are finding ways to pressure QBs better then ever while not sending the house and leaving a quality amount of players in the secondary.
• Defenses have adjusted to the mobile nature that todays QBs have brought to the table. Aaron Rodgers was the alpha for many years compared to Manning/Brady/Big Ben of a guy who could make water into wine. Russell Wilson was probably the other good example of this, but Mahomes/Allen/Lamar all entered with 2 years of each other followed by Hurts recently and Burrow/Herbert are no slouches either. Offenses had the advantage for quite a while as new fun and exciting schemes took precedent and defenses had to catch up. While now defenses have caught up as far more tape exists at this point on the best ways to stop these guys. Additionally while its great to see Lamar or Josh run 50 yards, longevity wise you'd rather them pass until it gets to a point it really matters.
• Teams have become very hesitant to play guys in preseason out of risk of injury but as more star offensive players don't play it also is taking offenses longer to get up to speed. There is no perfect answer to this, 2020 showed with no preseason it is a far more even playing field out of the get go but I truthfully would take a slow month so I have a full season vs losing my starter.
• Finally teams have embraced running the ball a bit again as the caliber of talent coming out yearly is allowing for groups of backfields that can move the ball cheaply and conversely allow lesser teams to run the clock more against higher powered opponents. I strongly doubt we ever see the halcyon days of running the ball 60-40 to pass, but it does seem to be more of a point of emphasis for the first time in a long while. 

 

While last night was slog at points I would encourage you to look more broadly at the league in general outside of Miami (as wonderkid McDaniel is doing some pretty cool stuff and still has cap run right now) because the teams that have been your standard for the last bunch of years all across the board are having issues at different points. Normally offenses have the edge in Sept/Oct before it flips Nov on, but that just has not been the way this year. On the flipside it is very possible teams like KC/BUF/CIN all hit their stride in the back half of the year on offenses and the fireworks are quite steady as the potential is there with each QB. But this is probably going to end up as one of those weird years that everyone looks back at as either a demarcation point in how defenses started attacking offenses and they got the edge for once, or the culmination of many years of of great offense play having a clunker instead.

 

You wouldn't happen to have a Cliffs Notes version of this write up, would ya?

[Thurman#1]

 

6 hours ago, Utah John said:

Defenses are having more success getting QBs down.  

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/sacks-per-game

 

Compare 2022 with 2023.  Almost every team is getting more sacks per game this year than they did last year.

 

 

Not the Bills. This O-line is looking good, and our sacks allowed are way down.

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

The issue is defense linemen come in waves but few offense lines have adequate substitutions.  The best teams have are decent swing tackles who cannot perform well enough when pressed to play full time or players like Bates who are good substitutes but not excel in any one position.  I was hoping Kramer would improve offense line stock.  

 

 

It may have a small part, but IMO this isn't the issue, as it's not something new. Teams have been platooning on defense and playing as one unit on offense for years. Offensive lines have never had a lot of depth, particularly since the rules on practice have limited time on the field together.

 

These absolutely are issues but I don't see anything new this year, really.

[MJS]

Defenses around the league always adjust, and then it is up to offenses to innovate, which they will. The pendulum swings back and forth.

[strive_for_five_guy]

17 hours ago, corta765 said:

Bills mafia is currently finishing burning down after another lack luster performance by the offense that thankfully this time did result in a win. Overall the Bills are fine, odds are like the last few years they are in their mid season shakes and I would expect that they will have more good days then bad even with the schedule coming up. Allen is having the best season of his career passing and 17 always gives hope even if the coaching staff has some dreadful days/decisions at times.

 

But this post is not fully dedicated to just the Bills right now. If it feels like this NFL season offenses are sluggish, games you expected as shootout's aren't, and that even the most consistent offenses are not what they have been your 100% correct. Points scored per team each game is at 21.7 which would be the lowest since 2017 which was also 21.7 ppg and before that 2009 when it was 21.5 ppg. Of the top 5 offenses in ppg in 2022 only DET/BUF are actually averaging more PPG with DET up 1.4 ppg and Buffalo .4 ppg while KC/PHI/DAL down anywhere from .7 ppg DAL to  4.7 ppg KC. We are 6 games in so we are no longer at a small sample size and while I would expect teams like KC/CIN to probably find a higher gear this season, overall offenses across the NFL have had their fair share of struggles to some truly dreadful performances across the board.

 

Is season an anomaly? Probably to some extent, since the change in rules on QB hits post 2008 when Brady got his knee tore up, the average in ppg has went from 20-21 ppg pre 2009 to 22-23 ppg with NFL offenses peaking at 24.8 ppg in the 2020 season. 2020 it was said offenses had the edge as stadiums were quieter, with no pre season defenses actually had to figure themselves out as the season went whereas smart offense minds could throw out some pretty exotic plans without a match, and you saw mesh of young elite QBs rising at once with Mahomes/Allen/Lamar/Burrow/Hurts/Herbert and older vets like Brady/Rodgers have career years. But besides 2020 from 2018 through 2021 teams were averaging over 23 ppg across the board, so 2020 while maybe inflated a little also was just the genesis of some truly wonderful offensive play.

 

So what the heck has happened? A few major changes in the game have altered landscapes and the ease of offense:

• D coordinators this year all have not only embraced the cover 2 shell to stop being beat over the top with ease, but the bend not break model on defense is your best friend against an elite QB. They are going to make their plays, but if you force them to have to earn it and add a few more plays per drive you giving yourself an opportunity for a turnover, penalty, or sack also. The cover 2 shell change in 2021 that forced the elite QBs to adjust a bit no longer is just a band aid for defenses, it has been weaponized now.
• The young QBs who took the offense explosion by force in 2018 are now paid and talent now is spread across more lineups. Tyreek Hill is probably the gold example of a player leaving because of the $ because they couldn't afford him. Hurts still has some time left, but the rest of the new guard has sizable contracts that force you to pick who you pay and how you draft. 
• Best way forever to beat a great QB is a pass rush. The talent at pass rusher whether DE/LB that has entered the league the past few years is absolutely wild. Teams are finding ways to pressure QBs better then ever while not sending the house and leaving a quality amount of players in the secondary.
• Defenses have adjusted to the mobile nature that todays QBs have brought to the table. Aaron Rodgers was the alpha for many years compared to Manning/Brady/Big Ben of a guy who could make water into wine. Russell Wilson was probably the other good example of this, but Mahomes/Allen/Lamar all entered with 2 years of each other followed by Hurts recently and Burrow/Herbert are no slouches either. Offenses had the advantage for quite a while as new fun and exciting schemes took precedent and defenses had to catch up. While now defenses have caught up as far more tape exists at this point on the best ways to stop these guys. Additionally while its great to see Lamar or Josh run 50 yards, longevity wise you'd rather them pass until it gets to a point it really matters.
• Teams have become very hesitant to play guys in preseason out of risk of injury but as more star offensive players don't play it also is taking offenses longer to get up to speed. There is no perfect answer to this, 2020 showed with no preseason it is a far more even playing field out of the get go but I truthfully would take a slow month so I have a full season vs losing my starter.
• Finally teams have embraced running the ball a bit again as the caliber of talent coming out yearly is allowing for groups of backfields that can move the ball cheaply and conversely allow lesser teams to run the clock more against higher powered opponents. I strongly doubt we ever see the halcyon days of running the ball 60-40 to pass, but it does seem to be more of a point of emphasis for the first time in a long while. 

 

While last night was slog at points I would encourage you to look more broadly at the league in general outside of Miami (as wonderkid McDaniel is doing some pretty cool stuff and still has cap run right now) because the teams that have been your standard for the last bunch of years all across the board are having issues at different points. Normally offenses have the edge in Sept/Oct before it flips Nov on, but that just has not been the way this year. On the flipside it is very possible teams like KC/BUF/CIN all hit their stride in the back half of the year on offenses and the fireworks are quite steady as the potential is there with each QB. But this is probably going to end up as one of those weird years that everyone looks back at as either a demarcation point in how defenses started attacking offenses and they got the edge for once, or the culmination of many years of of great offense play having a clunker instead.

Appreciate the different perspectives.  One thing that is confusing me - The thread title, what is a “young men…offense”?

[Utah John]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Not the Bills. This O-line is looking good, and our sacks allowed are way down.

True.  The article I posted a link to only talked about how many sacks each team's defense was getting, not how many its offenses were giving up.  

 

For three out of six games, our offense was tremendous.  For the other three, it was terrible.  We had the same O line for all six.  I think it comes down to defensive personnel and defensive schemes on the part of the opponent, and whether our OC is putting our guys into positions to succed.

[Big Turk]

Maybe the same place All the Cowboys have gone?

 

Paula Cole might know...maybe you should ask her.

 

 

[corta765]

33 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Appreciate the different perspectives.  One thing that is confusing me - The thread title, what is a “young men…offense”?

lol it actually is a play on joke on a song by Pete Seeger "Where Have All The Flowers Gone". Long story short it is an anti war song, but in this context it fit for the title.

[SoTier]

5 minutes ago, corta765 said:

lol it actually is a play on joke on a song by Pete Seeger "Where Have All The Flowers Gone". Long story short it is an anti war song, but in this context it fit for the title.

 

You must be almost as old as me!  I think that most of the posters here aren't old enough to have any idea of the folk music movement that swept popular music in the late 1950s and early 1960s.