Numbers suggest your narratives are wrong on the offense.

[Sharky7337]

11 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

 

The numbers were taken from the first six weeks, where the Bills certainly DIDN'T have an issue with offense, the heat game in Miami aside.

This is the issue. I knew it was only a matter of time until the "numbers" start crawling out.

 

Their results, oponents, and situations were not the same. Its like comparing apples to oranges. This year and last year.

 

Lets just make it simple. Do you think our offense has looked good in better then 50 percent of our games this year?

Edited October 16, 2023 by Sharky7337

[DrDawkinstein]

22 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

I think you misunderstand, I think the run game has become a strength where last year it's a weakness

 

 

I get what you were saying. We're all happy to see the Bills have a real run game.

 

But the correlation has been made between our new found success in a "traditional" running game, and this weird, disjointed, no identity offense.

[ngbills]

A few comments:

 

1. Last years team was rolling with 400+ yards in every game but 1. They had ~500+ in 2. This year they only have 400 yds in 2 of the six and never snifffed 500. 

2. These stats ignore that Knox, McK, and Davis all missed a game. So your comparing guys with 6 games with guys with 5 games. 

3. Yards - Despite all the targets/receptions yards matter. All had a lot more yards last year - 300+ more yards. You can throw know 100 1 yd passes and say how he is having an amazing year with 100 receptions, but if its for 125 yards who cares. 

 

[BuffaloBill]

47 minutes ago, pocoboy said:

So let's get to the heart of the matter...

 

The stat that's missing is...Josh ground game. If you discard that from your playbook, the rest must come up and fill in the gaps. And everything is pretty much the same, nothing has truly picked up that lack of dynamism.

 

 

Yep, it’s very clear Josh is not going off script so much which includes him running.  It seems Josh is trying to take less of a pounding and looking to cut down on int’s.

 

 

[Freddie's Dead]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

On the whole season last year McKenzie had 42 catches. 27 of those were for 1st downs. Not sure that qualifies as a first down machine.

Add in rushing FDs and he averaged close to two a game. We're not getting that production elsewhere right now. He coulda been back here for a fraction of what we're paying Sharty, who isn't producing anywhere near $10M. 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Came across the following tweet. Pulled the numbers out so they are front and center.  Credit to "Rico" for doing the leg work. But I have seen a LOT of common themes parroted today and the numbers show that for the most part the opinions of some (including some opinions I've had) may not be fully true.

 

 

First off...the new narrative that Josh is suddenly force feeding Diggs and only Diggs the ball to keep him happy. Through 6 games Diggs has only 1 more target than last year. My theory is that the perception that Allen is forcing Diggs the ball more has to do with the lack of targets for Stef at the end of the year.

 

After 6 weeks 
5-1 record.              4-2 Record 
#Diggs  22'             Diggs  23'
65 targets               66 targets 
49 recs                    49 Rec 
6tds                           5tds

Add in 2022: 555 yds 2023 752 yds

 

Just a little note that one of the concerns expressed LAST year was that the offense was too focused on Diggs, and struggled (especially in the RZ) because of it.

 

So it might be useful to look also at 2020 and 2021, when most people seem to feel we had a more efficient, consistent offense that was better in the RZ:

2020                     2021

59 targets             59 targets

42 receptions       37 receptions

3 TD                       2 TD

555 yds                 463 yds

 

It appears that Diggs is generating more of the offensive yards and TDs last year and this year.  And that was a critique offered by knowledgeable pundits like Greg Cosell when the Bills offense spluttered - that the offense was basically Allen and one "very good" WR in Diggs.

 

 

[Beck Water]

38 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

 

Yep, it’s very clear Josh is not going off script so much which includes him running.  It seems Josh is trying to take less of a pounding and looking to cut down on int’s.

 

 

 

This is the play Rapport brought up where Allen went into the medical tent.

 

Pass play, Allen extended the play.  Looked like a totally clean hit, possibly #58 arm clubbed into Josh's right shoulder.

 

[pocoboy]

14 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

This is the play Rapport brought up where Allen went into the medical tent.

 

Pass play, Allen extended the play.  Looked like a totally clean hit, possibly #58 arm clubbed into Josh's right shoulder.

 

 

QB Runs are somewhat in your control - the QB can give himself up at any time, can go out of bounds.

Pocket QB hits are not. The QB is often in the midst of a very vulnerable motion with little ability to protect himself. A bunch of 300 lb guys diving, rolling, swatting, and smashing at you.

 

Almost every injury we've seen Allen take has been behind the LOS. Not saying I endorse him getting 30 rushes a game, but I think the decreased threat of him running has given opposing DC's a much easier time.

[Beck Water]

29 minutes ago, pocoboy said:

 

QB Runs are somewhat in your control - the QB can give himself up at any time, can go out of bounds.

Pocket QB hits are not. The QB is often in the midst of a very vulnerable motion with little ability to protect himself. A bunch of 300 lb guys diving, rolling, swatting, and smashing at you.

 

Almost every injury we've seen Allen take has been behind the LOS. Not saying I endorse him getting 30 rushes a game, but I think the decreased threat of him running has given opposing DC's a much easier time.

 

I think one needs to differentiate between pocket QB hits, and hits behind the LOS.

 

This was not a pocket QB hit.

 

Allen is frankly fairly lucky that throw wasn't picked.  He heaved it into an area of the field with 2 defenders and 2 Bills and the player with by far the best chance was a Giant.

 

The problem is, Josh Allen does NOT give himself up or throw the ball out of bounds on those behind the LOS, extend the play moments - and while they account for many of his "wow!" throws, they also account for a disproportionate number of strip sacks and interceptions.

 

 

Edited October 16, 2023 by Beck Water

[freddyjj]

6 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

McKittrick was a first down machine.  I'd like to see the FD stats between McKittrick and the slot committee. That's what the Bills are really missing right now, the ability to move the chains. 

Lil Dirty was good as 66% of his catches were 1D or TD.  He was eclipsed by Emmanuel Sanders and John Brown as they averaged a 1st down or TD on >80% of their catches as Bills.  Point of reference, Beasley had a 1d or TD on 58% of his catches in his time in BUF.

 

On WGR, Jeremey White maintains it is the Sanders/Brown role where the Bills are sorely lacking - the 2nd outside WR.  Weird as Gabe Davis , Bills 2nd Outside WR s a unicorn as 94% of his catches have been for 1st downs or TDs.  This is tempered by the fact he only has a 56% catch rate.

4 hours ago, Beck Water said:

Looked like a totally clean hit, possibly #58 arm clubbed into Josh's right shoulder.

Might be why 17 took a run at 58 in end zone during the soiree with the Linemen!

6 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

The INT Josh threw last night looked like one of those routes, however.

Pass was to Knox but it was a quick slant off an RPO

 

edit as I had wrong pass here.  Thinking of the one to Diggs that was deflected by okekre the LB

Edited October 16, 2023 by freddyjj

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

you disagree the run game is improved?

 

it is the reason we won that game last night, the passing game was neutered.

 

 

The LOL was referring to the naked eye comment after another poster was shot down with data.   

 

IDK, I hadn't considered it, so let's look at the comps this season to last, as I write here, through six games.  

 

Should we consider only the RBs then?  Let's run RBs and total, since so many runs last season were seemingly designed to run Allen.  

 

Here's the raw data.  It appears that the RBs in general are carrying the laod more, but overall, the total rushing yards is not significantly better.  The Yards-per-Carry is also down by a Yard-per-Carry by the RBs and by .3 YPC in total if we include Allen.  

 

So I suppose the answer depends upon what the criteria is.  More rushing TDs by the RBs, then yes.  More yards by the RBs, yes.  Yards-per-Carry, either, no.  More total rushing yards by the team, no, particularly given the diminished 1.0 YPC.  

 

But in a direct answer to your question, I would say no, and here's why.  Last season our running game through the first six games was notably more consistent.  

 

Last season we had rushing totals in games 1-6 as 121, 101, 115, 125, 120, 125.  Best to worst was 24 rushing yards.  

 

This season we've had rushing totals in games 1-6:  97, 183, 168, 104, 29, 128.  Best to worst is 154.  

 

As for me, I'd rather have the consistency as it makes it easier to plan.  The standard deviation of that second set is 6 times what it is for the first.  

 

But concerning me more about our offense is that last season our lowest scoring games were 10, 17, 19, and 20.  After that we scored 23+ in every game.  This season, only six games in, we've already all but matched our low scores:  14, 16, 20.  

 

Your thoughts?  

 

 

2022

 

 

[ToGoGo]

3 hours ago, SinatraSinger said:

Are you saying that you don't think that Josh force fed Diggs last night.  Josh had 30 attempts and 16 of them went to Diggs, you don't consider that force feeding, over 50% of the attempts to one individual.  Only 3 to the supposed #2 WR.  No attempts to RB's.

 

You don't need numbers to see what was obvious last night. It was all Allen and Diggs. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

8 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

The LOL was referring to the naked eye comment after another poster was shot down with data.   

 

IDK, I hadn't considered it, so let's look at the comps this season to last, as I write here, through six games.  

 

Should we consider only the RBs then?  Let's run RBs and total, since so many runs last season were seemingly designed to run Allen.  

 

Here's the raw data.  It appears that the RBs in general are carrying the laod more, but overall, the total rushing yards is not significantly better.  The Yards-per-Carry is also down by a Yard-per-Carry by the RBs and by .3 YPC in total if we include Allen.  

 

So I suppose the answer depends upon what the criteria is.  More rushing TDs by the RBs, then yes.  More yards by the RBs, yes.  Yards-per-Carry, either, no.  More total rushing yards by the team, no, particularly given the diminished 1.0 YPC.  

 

But in a direct answer to your question, I would say no, and here's why.  Last season our running game through the first six games was notably more consistent.  

 

Last season we had rushing totals in games 1-6 as 121, 101, 115, 125, 120, 125.  Best to worst was 24 rushing yards.  

 

This season we've had rushing totals in games 1-6:  97, 183, 168, 104, 29, 128.  Best to worst is 154.  

 

As for me, I'd rather have the consistency as it makes it easier to plan.  The standard deviation of that second set is 6 times what it is for the first.  

 

But concerning me more about our offense is that last season our lowest scoring games were 10, 17, 19, and 20.  After that we scored 23+ in every game.  This season, only six games in, we've already all but matched our low scores:  14, 16, 20.  

 

Your thoughts?  

 

 

2022

 

 

 

I'm honestly surprised by those numbers. There's been more RB production, but that's all but negated by less allen production.

 

Good stuff. I want Allen running more, I guess that's my thought. Not designed, mind you, but more freedom to scramble. That's a defense killer.

 

 

 

[PBF81]

Six weeks into the season, here's my concern du jour; 

 

Regarding our offense is that last season our lowest scoring games were 10, 17, 19, and 20.  After that we scored 23+ in every game.  This season, only six games in, we've already all but matched our low scores:  14, 16, 20.  

 

The fact that our offense has sputtered like that up front is concerning as was 0 points through 3 Quarters yesterday.  

 

This week @ New England will provide more info.  There isn't a gimme game on the schedule at this point given our play of the past two weeks.  

 

 

7 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

I'm honestly surprised by those numbers. There's been more RB production, but that's all but negated by less allen production.

 

Good stuff. I want Allen running more, I guess that's my thought. Not designed, mind you, but more freedom to scramble. That's a defense killer.

 

Agreed.  Not sure what's going on.  

 

I also just looked at our aggregate numbers this season to last, with my belief that there's no reason for us to be wore in any offensive category from last season. 

 

Last season we had more passing TDs, 17 to 13, fewer INTs, 4 v. 6, more passing yards, more 1st-Downs, fewer rushing yards but a noticeably better YPC avg. per above, and more points by 3.  

 

Not quite sure what that means at this point other than that the coaches are underachieving with this crew.