The biggest blunder of the game IMO

[HappyDays]

14 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

For me personally the coaches had a strong feeling that the throw to knox was a high percentage play

 

Well that's crazy if they believed that. Before last night Knox had an abysmal 15.6% drop rate. His drop on that play was not officially credited as a drop, but that was a predictable outcome. When you combine his drop rate with all the other little things that can go wrong on a pass play, plus you know Knox has a wrist/hand injury, that was inherently a low percentage play. Really just an awful play call in that situation, choosing to rely on a low percentage player in a critical moment.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Well that's crazy if they believed that. Before last night Knox had an abysmal 15.6% drop rate. His drop on that play was not officially credited as a drop, but that was a predictable outcome. When you combine his drop rate with all the other little things that can go wrong on a pass play, plus you know Knox has a wrist/hand injury, that was inherently a low percentage play. Really just an awful play call in that situation, choosing to rely on a low percentage player in a critical moment.

I feel like you and I both know that is a massively exaggerated way to sum up how that play went wrong.  I certainly respect the run and punt side of the argument but come on now lol it was a laughably wide open pitch and catch under 0 pressure.  You could’ve called two random fans down there to play qb and TE and they probably complete that half the time 😂 a qb throwing lasers with instant pressure in his face all second half turning that wide open throw into a 50/50 ball was wildly unlikely but I def respect everyone’s right to criticize 

 

It’s just as likely elam gives up a big play and the giants end up punching it in on the run and punt situation to win the game and we’d all be sitting here criticizing that decision too..  they moved the ball down the sideline in chunks quite a few times 

Edited October 17, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I feel like you and I both know that is a massively exaggerated way to sum up how that play went wrong.  I certainly respect the run and punt side of the argument but come on now lol it was a laughably wide open pitch and catch under 0 pressure.  You could’ve called two random fans down there to play qb and TE and they probably complete that half the time 😂

 

Allen is not a precise thrower while on the move. He can launch the ball but throwing 100% accurate passes while moving is not his strength. Usually when he completes those passes it's because the pass catcher stops in a good position and properly adjusts to the ball. But of course Knox is awful at adjusting to throws and has bad hands to begin with.

 

So you're asking an imprecise thrower to complete a pass to a clumsy pass catcher. The outcome is not a surprise at all. If you had Kincaid on that route I would have been fine with it I guess, but honestly against the Giants I play field position and the clock either way.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

On 10/16/2023 at 1:30 AM, buffalo2218 said:

Agreed. If Mahomes had thrown the last pass of the game, the officials would have ripped their pants off throwing a flag

It also would have been completed… 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

Allen is not a precise thrower while on the move. He can launch the ball but throwing 100% accurate passes while moving is not his strength. Usually when he completes those passes it's because the pass catcher stops in a good position and properly adjusts to the ball. But of course Knox is awful at adjusting to throws and has bad hands to begin with.

 

So you're asking an imprecise thrower to complete a pass to a clumsy pass catcher. The outcome is not a surprise at all. If you had Kincaid on that route I would have been fine with it I guess, but honestly against the Giants I play field position and the clock either way.

It just feels like the hindsight game to me personally but I respect the opinion for sure.  Unless we could visit the alternate timeline where we punted there I guess we’ll truly never know 😂.  
 

the way I see it it was the odds of those two guys not connecting on a probably wide open pass and bass missing the fg vs running and punting and holding them but I can see people not interpreting it that way 

[CSBill]

To sum up this thread:

 

You are damned if you do, and damned if you don't.

 

But. it all worked out in the end.

 

And then there's this cliche: It's hard to win in the NFL.

 

Or . . .

 

       You've got to know when to hold 'em
       Know when to fold 'em
       Know when to walk away
      And know when to run

 

Or . . .

 

       Should I stay, or should I go now?
       Should I stay, or should I go now?
       If I go, there will be trouble
       And if I stay, it will be double
      So come on and let me know

      Should I stay, or should I go now?

 

[wagon127]

Getting the punt to land by the 10 yard line or inside it, seems to be as difficult as bass making a 53 yard field goal. I would suggest, the bills attempt to convert the 4th down play, over going for the punt. But yes, Bass missed from 53 earlier, but Bass has been great all year aside from last night, so no reason not to trust him still.

[gobills1212]

13 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Why is aggressive inherently good? What ever happened to context? We're facing the worst offense in football. They've scored 1 offensive TD in the previous 11 quarters of game time. They have a backup QB, a gimpy RB, and missing several OL including their stud LT. We can pin them back inside the 20 with zero timeouts and 1 minute to drive for a TD, or we can risk giving them the ball at midfield with 1 timeout. Why in that scenario is aggressive the right mindset?

 

While what you say makes complete sense and I often agree with your posts, in this instance I was speaking in generalities and specifics.  That is to say, often a criticism of McD is he should have gone for it, or as they were saying on the radio this am (whether you like the am show isnt the point- its Bills football talk) how McD had been on the right side of being agressive as it pertains to what analytics say when compared to the best decision towards win %, but they have been waning. So often we will see people come on here and whine about they should be more agressive. The same as when they dont run people complain they should have a run game and when they do - they should be passing more.  Now, as that pertains to this situation, if you want them to be aggressive (which I do because Id much rather he coach with that style more than less), the chances are very high that your elite QB will hit an easy throw on an excellent designed play OR your kicker who entered the game 9/9 on the year will hit a FG in his range are excellent. The first didnt happen and then the odds were defied as neither did the 2nd. Id much rather take those swings and end the game on our terms than leave stuff up to chance. A little more food for thought... there is a high probability that the Giants go fishing for a DPI penalty. The 20ish yard difference then becomes a moot point bc itll just be lost in the penalty. Thats actually what happened anyway and Im not sure how much 20 yrds wlda helped. We went right into the 'keep the ball infront of you' as we would have done had they been further back and there was plenty of time. You take a chance the refs decide it, your D blows it etc. We had that game in front of us to win on our terms and statistically, both of those shots we took were high % shots. We just happened to come up empty each time. I feel like most of the time in the league there is a 50/50 chance for someone to win a game, its the O that comes out over the D. Just in the same way Id want the ball down 2 pts with 60 sec left than up 2 and have to go on D. 

[Nihilarian]

The Bassman had missed 5 of 6 from that distance in warmups. Probably should have punted. 

 

The Bills won...who cares?

[gobills1212]

4 minutes ago, gobills1212 said:

 

 

13 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Why is aggressive inherently good? What ever happened to context? We're facing the worst offense in football. They've scored 1 offensive TD in the previous 11 quarters of game time. They have a backup QB, a gimpy RB, and missing several OL including their stud LT. We can pin them back inside the 20 with zero timeouts and 1 minute to drive for a TD, or we can risk giving them the ball at midfield with 1 timeout. Why in that scenario is aggressive the right mindset?

 

While what you say makes complete sense and I often agree with your posts, in this instance I was speaking in generalities and specifics.  That is to say, often a criticism of McD is he should have gone for it, or as they were saying on the radio this am (whether you like the am show isnt the point- its Bills football talk) how McD had been on the right side of being agressive as it pertains to what analytics say when compared to the best decision towards win %, but they have been waning. So often we will see people come on here and whine about they should be more agressive. The same as when they dont run people complain they should have a run game and when they do - they should be passing more.  Now, as that pertains to this situation, if you want them to be aggressive (which I do because Id much rather he coach with that style more than less), the chances are very high that your elite QB will hit an easy throw on an excellent designed play OR your kicker who entered the game 9/9 on the year will hit a FG in his range are excellent. The first didnt happen and then the odds were defied as neither did the 2nd. Id much rather take those swings and end the game on our terms than leave stuff up to chance. A little more food for thought... there is a high probability that the Giants go fishing for a DPI penalty. The 20ish yard difference then becomes a moot point bc itll just be lost in the penalty. Thats actually what happened anyway and Im not sure how much 20 yrds wlda helped. We went right into the 'keep the ball infront of you' as we would have done had they been further back and there was plenty of time. You take a chance the refs decide it, your D blows it etc. We had that game in front of us to win on our terms and statistically, both of those shots we took were high % shots. We just happened to come up empty each time. I feel like most of the time in the league there is a 50/50 chance for someone to win a game, its the O that comes out over the D. Just in the same way Id want the ball down 2 pts with 60 sec left than up 2 and have to go on D. As to your Allen isnt accurate on the run... I disagree. Watch him throw that ball. He 110% pussyfooted it. He just kinda laid it in to ensure it wasnt incomplete and in doing so got away from how he usually throws and let up too much. Knox still had it, did the tought part, and then somehow lost it on the way back up. In the end I suspect you will disagree because you prefer them not being agressive. Thats totally cool as I know you wont flip flip as in my aforementioned example. Its ok to disagree in this sense bc i think its based in fundamentals 

Edited October 17, 2023 by gobills1212

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

1 hour ago, CSBill said:

To sum up this thread:

 

You are damned if you do, and damned if you don't.

 

But. it all worked out in the end.

 

And then there's this cliche: It's hard to win in the NFL.

 

Or . . .

 

       You've got to know when to hold 'em
       Know when to fold 'em
       Know when to walk away
      And know when to run

 

Or . . .

 

       Should I stay, or should I go now?
       Should I stay, or should I go now?
       If I go, there will be trouble
       And if I stay, it will be double
      So come on and let me know

      Should I stay, or should I go now?

 

I was angry before Bass even kicked the FG lol actually I got upset when they called that stupid pass play to Knox. Should’ve been 3 runs and a punt. Plenty of posters here break it down nicer than I ever could so go read thru previous pages. You put someone at damn near the 50 w/ a timeout and 1:30+ on the clock then you are asking for trouble and it nearly happened (the refs probably saved us.) Some people aren’t grasping how lucky the Bills are to have pulled off a win. 

[HappyDays]

8 minutes ago, gobills1212 said:

That is to say, often a criticism of McD is he should have gone for it, or as they were saying on the radio this am (whether you like the am show isnt the point- its Bills football talk) how McD had been on the right side of being agressive as it pertains to what analytics say when compared to the best decision towards win %, but they have been waning. So often we will see people come on here and whine about they should be more agressive. The same as when they dont run people complain they should have a run game and when they do - they should be passing more.

 

There are definitely some people that will just complain about the outcome no matter what and aren't consistent in their complaints. Not me. I have been leaning more conservative on issues like this for years now. I swear I have seen many more cases of a coach losing a game being overly aggressive in recent years than I have seeing the opposite. We almost lost this game because we were needlessly aggressive. Frankly we got lucky to pull out a win at the end.

 

Edited October 17, 2023 by HappyDays

[In Summary]

The biggest blunder was NBC leading with a clip of Norwood's missed SB 25 FG attempt.  Antagonistic and served no purpose.  I hope somebody threw eggs at the NBC trucks.

[NoSaint]

On 10/16/2023 at 12:28 AM, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

The decision to kick a 53 FG when already up 4+ points knowing your kicker has been shaky and shanked another 53 yarder earlier in the game.

Missing the kick would put the Giants in good field position w/ a time out to work with and ample time to dink & dunk their way down to the red zone.

 

If McDermott would’ve punted, it would’ve placed the Giants around the 10 (who haven’t scored a TD in multiple games) and made them drive 90 yards! This decision would’ve eliminated all those Trent Edwards check downs and forced Tyrod to make multiple big plays. I’m sure the analytics would back this up all day. 
 

I know it’s irrelevant now, but the Bills are darn lucky to have escaped this game w/ a win. 

I’m really on the fence.
 

Defense is beat up but the giants are terrible. 
 

bass is not shaky, with just the one missed kick.

 

I think you have to try to take losing off the table fully with the fg there but get the numbers are closer than we’d think. 
 

honestly just going for it on 4th probably isn’t even much of an outlier in the decision tree 

[Orlando Buffalo]

On 10/16/2023 at 1:28 AM, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

The decision to kick a 53 FG when already up 4+ points knowing your kicker has been shaky and shanked another 53 yarder earlier in the game.

Missing the kick would put the Giants in good field position w/ a time out to work with and ample time to dink & dunk their way down to the red zone.

 

If McDermott would’ve punted, it would’ve placed the Giants around the 10 (who haven’t scored a TD in multiple games) and made them drive 90 yards! This decision would’ve eliminated all those Trent Edwards check downs and forced Tyrod to make multiple big plays. I’m sure the analytics would back this up all day. 
 

I know it’s irrelevant now, but the Bills are darn lucky to have escaped this game w/ a win. 

I disagree slightly, the worst play was the third down call, if you knew you were gonna kick a FG you make sure that they have to use their timeouts and try to bang a few more yards forward. I like the call for the first if we will punt because we either ice it or make them travel whole field 

[billsfan_34]

On 10/16/2023 at 1:28 AM, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

The decision to kick a 53 FG when already up 4+ points knowing your kicker has been shaky and shanked another 53 yarder earlier in the game.

Missing the kick would put the Giants in good field position w/ a time out to work with and ample time to dink & dunk their way down to the red zone.

 

If McDermott would’ve punted, it would’ve placed the Giants around the 10 (who haven’t scored a TD in multiple games) and made them drive 90 yards! This decision would’ve eliminated all those Trent Edwards check downs and forced Tyrod to make multiple big plays. I’m sure the analytics would back this up all day. 
 

I know it’s irrelevant now, but the Bills are darn lucky to have escaped this game w/ a win. 

Absolutely! Pin em deep dont give the Giants good field position.

[John from Riverside]

On 10/15/2023 at 10:28 PM, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

The decision to kick a 53 FG when already up 4+ points knowing your kicker has been shaky and shanked another 53 yarder earlier in the game.

Missing the kick would put the Giants in good field position w/ a time out to work with and ample time to dink & dunk their way down to the red zone.

 

If McDermott would’ve punted, it would’ve placed the Giants around the 10 (who haven’t scored a TD in multiple games) and made them drive 90 yards! This decision would’ve eliminated all those Trent Edwards check downs and forced Tyrod to make multiple big plays. I’m sure the analytics would back this up all day. 
 

I know it’s irrelevant now, but the Bills are darn lucky to have escaped this game w/ a win. 

I completely trust bass and if we were in that situation, I would trust him again

[juno999]

I think the biggest blunder was Davis fumbling.  Had the ball in the wrong hand and only one hand on the ball.  An early score by the Bills in that game probably would have been a much different outcome.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 10/17/2023 at 12:48 PM, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

It also would have been completed… 

Oh yeah? Like when he threw a duck to Taron Johnson last year to end the game ? 

9 hours ago, juno999 said:

I think the biggest blunder was Davis fumbling.  Had the ball in the wrong hand and only one hand on the ball.  An early score by the Bills in that game probably would have been a much different outcome.

These earlier plays often get overlooked because it’s not as dramatic, but they all have an equal impact whether it’s the last play of the game or the 3rd play of the 2nd quarter. 

[gobills1212]

On 10/17/2023 at 2:36 PM, HappyDays said:

 

There are definitely some people that will just complain about the outcome no matter what and aren't consistent in their complaints. Not me. I have been leaning more conservative on issues like this for years now. I swear I have seen many more cases of a coach losing a game being overly aggressive in recent years than I have seeing the opposite. We almost lost this game because we were needlessly aggressive. Frankly we got lucky to pull out a win at the end.

 

And I get it - I do.

I guess I just look at it more in the sense of punting gives the refs an oppertunity to control your fate.

Conversley, the boot and kick offered 2 chances for us to control our own fate - both of which the odds were better than not it was successful.

The fact S hit the fan and neither things were successful were longer odds than the Giants actually winning.

I guess my biggest argument is whether warranted or not, that extra 20 yrds you gain on a punt could be negated in 3 sec with a DPI.

Thats what put them at the 1 and it could have happened from anywhere. that 20 yrds cld also be eaten up in 1 of these 'prevent' D plays we run.

We had QUALITY chances to ice it ourselves and didnt. If it wasnt quality, I'm with you. but even if each oppertunity had a 51% chance- I'd wanna take it. Bc if you stack both those, odds are we get it done ourselves. As with many other things that evening, it didnt go our way and now we are having this conversation