NYT Playoff Simulator

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

29 minutes ago, Chaos said:

These projections seem absurd.  Chiefs at 85% is incredibly low. 

I believe their projections are based upon probabilities and W-L records of the season so far.  As the season progresses, you'll see stronger teams' percentages increase as they garner wins.

Edited October 14, 2023 by Ridgewaycynic2013

[BearNorth]

43 minutes ago, arcane said:

The Fins thing is just a math thing, because they are a game ahead of us in the win column and likely have an easier schedule due to finishing lower than us last year 

 

That said I don't think it's a coin flip that the 2nd best qb in the NFL makes the playoffs sitting at 3-2 with 7 very winnable games in a row 

Interestingly the schedules are remarkably even the rest of the way.  Miami's future opponents are w30-l31, Bills are w30-l30.  [bye weeks cause the difference].

[Drew21PA]

12 hours ago, BearNorth said:

Ran the sim a couple of times. 

 

Obviously last game of the season at Fish is HUGE, as that would give us a season sweep.

 

@Chiefs will probably decide the AFC #1 seed as long as we sweep Miami.

 

JAX playing in such a lousy division and with a W over us could be a problem.

My opinion is anyone but the chiefs as number 1 seed in cool with

[RiotAct]

15 hours ago, BearNorth said:

Ran the sim a couple of times. 

 

Obviously last game of the season at Fish is HUGE, as that would give us a season sweep.

 

@Chiefs will probably decide the AFC #1 seed as long as we sweep Miami.

 

JAX playing in such a lousy division and with a W over us could be a problem.

I dunno… I can easily see us beating KC but then dropping a couple we “should” win, while KC continues their dominance over the dregs of the NFL.

[Reks Ryan]

3 hours ago, TheWei44 said:

I may be wrong about this but I think the 54% is the probability of winning the first round (every % in the table is the probability of winning in said round).  So our chances of making the playoffs would be higher than that.

It's not showing any % about performance in the playoffs, only the seeding entering the playoffs.

 

Each place is the probabiltiy for each seed.  Ex. it shows the Bills with 6% chance to get the 1 seed, and 10% chance to get the 5 seed.   It has the Dolphins 57% chance to wind the divison and the Bills only a 29% chance.     

[Buffalo03]

The Chiefs in the west right now is nearly identical to the Patriots in the East 15-20 Yeats ago. Every team in the division sucks, though the Chargers aren't horrible like us, the Jets and Dolphins were and they basically get 6 free wins every year. Literally like the exact same thing