TSNBDSC Posted October 13, 2023 Posted October 13, 2023 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html 1 Quote
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted October 13, 2023 Posted October 13, 2023 Another excellent site: http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfl.html 1 Quote
stevestojan Posted October 14, 2023 Posted October 14, 2023 2 hours ago, TSNBDSC said: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html This is REALLY cool. Turns out if we lose the next 5 and then run the table, we’re in! 2 Quote
BearNorth Posted October 14, 2023 Posted October 14, 2023 Ran the sim a couple of times. Obviously last game of the season at Fish is HUGE, as that would give us a season sweep. @Chiefs will probably decide the AFC #1 seed as long as we sweep Miami. JAX playing in such a lousy division and with a W over us could be a problem. 1 Quote
78thealltimegreat Posted October 14, 2023 Posted October 14, 2023 17 minutes ago, stevestojan said: This is REALLY cool. Turns out if we lose the next 5 and then run the table, we’re in! If we lose the next 5 with the teams they have coming up. This will be the board. Quote
Saxum Posted October 14, 2023 Posted October 14, 2023 10 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said: If we lose the next 5 with the teams they have coming up. This will be the board. Well some say it is a good idea to tank. Quote
strive_for_five_guy Posted October 14, 2023 Posted October 14, 2023 After running multiple simulations, I’ve concluded that we still control our own destiny. 3 Quote
Reks Ryan Posted October 14, 2023 Posted October 14, 2023 5 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said: Another excellent site: http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfl.html Interesting that this one only gives the Bills a 54% chance to make the playoffs. And shows both the Colts & Steelers w higher probability to get in. Quote
Coldfronts Posted October 14, 2023 Posted October 14, 2023 (edited) Well we got what we wanted an underdog status not like last year Edited October 14, 2023 by Coldfronts Quote
Dan Darragh Posted October 14, 2023 Posted October 14, 2023 8 hours ago, Limeaid said: Well some say it is a good idea to tank. Good year to tank, we could finally get ourselves a decent QB Quote
BearNorth Posted October 14, 2023 Posted October 14, 2023 7 hours ago, Reks Ryan said: Interesting that this one only gives the Bills a 54% chance to make the playoffs. And shows both the Colts & Steelers w higher probability to get in. And ranks the fish ahead of us. A team we beat by 4 TD's and is also missing several key players due to injury/on injured reserve. Quote
Franco_92 Posted October 14, 2023 Posted October 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, BearNorth said: And ranks the fish ahead of us. A team we beat by 4 TD's and is also missing several key players due to injury/on injured reserve. The Fins thing is just a math thing, because they are a game ahead of us in the win column and likely have an easier schedule due to finishing lower than us last year That said I don't think it's a coin flip that the 2nd best qb in the NFL makes the playoffs sitting at 3-2 with 7 very winnable games in a row 1 Quote
TheWei44 Posted October 14, 2023 Posted October 14, 2023 8 hours ago, Reks Ryan said: Interesting that this one only gives the Bills a 54% chance to make the playoffs. And shows both the Colts & Steelers w higher probability to get in. I may be wrong about this but I think the 54% is the probability of winning the first round (every % in the table is the probability of winning in said round). So our chances of making the playoffs would be higher than that. Quote
Chaos Posted October 14, 2023 Posted October 14, 2023 13 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said: Another excellent site: http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfl.html These projections seem absurd. Chiefs at 85% is incredibly low. Quote
finn Posted October 14, 2023 Posted October 14, 2023 The real question isn't whether the Bills make the playoffs--Allen would have to be out for the season for that to happen--but whether they win the division. If they win the division and get a bye, their SB chances rise by a lot. One near-certainty: They won't have top seed. Between the Chief's soft schedule, the extreme bias of the refs in their favor (it's no longer debatable), and eyebrow-raising "coincidences" (e.g., the Broncos DB declining to tackle Mahomes), the Chief WILL be awarded the top seed, barring a season-ending injury to Mahomes. Not fair, but at least they have a chance to beat the Chiefs at that point. https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/10/13/broncos-damarri-mathis-patrick-mahomes-missed-tackle-video Quote
Chaos Posted October 14, 2023 Posted October 14, 2023 11 minutes ago, TheWei44 said: I may be wrong about this but I think the 54% is the probability of winning the first round (every % in the table is the probability of winning in said round). So our chances of making the playoffs would be higher than that. You are wrong. The last column that indicates the 54% is titled "No Playoffs". Quote
TheWei44 Posted October 14, 2023 Posted October 14, 2023 8 minutes ago, Chaos said: You are wrong. The last column that indicates the 54% is titled "No Playoffs". I stand corrected, thanks. I hadn't clicked on one of the key links. Quote
Chaos Posted October 14, 2023 Posted October 14, 2023 9 minutes ago, TheWei44 said: I stand corrected, thanks. I hadn't clicked on one of the key links. Its understandable. Because 54% is so stupid, it would seem there was something wrong. Quote
Billsatlastin2018 Posted October 14, 2023 Posted October 14, 2023 (edited) FFS… The goal is NOT to “make the Playoffs”! We’re YEARS down that road! Edited October 14, 2023 by Billsatlastin2018 Quote
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