Tight End Stats Through 5 games

[Dubie54]

1 hour ago, ngbills said:

It is a very odd approach. I want to see one of the analytics folks chart out all the routes Kincaid and Knox are running in games. I can only recall a very few that they are going up the seam or running a corner route etc. A big part of the value is supposed to be pulling the safety to open things up for other guys. Not so much when they are just running quick outs or swings. 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-te.php

 

YAC:   Knox is 29th; 2022- 9th; and 2021 - 6th.

 

I don't think his ability to run has changed in 2 years, but he's not getting the kind of separation he has the past 2 years. There has to be an aspect here related to play calling.    

Edited October 12, 2023 by Dubie54

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, ngbills said:

It is a very odd approach. I want to see one of the analytics folks chart out all the routes Kincaid and Knox are running in games. I can only recall a very few that they are going up the seam or running a corner route etc. A big part of the value is supposed to be pulling the safety to open things up for other guys. Not so much when they are just running quick outs or swings. 

 

They run them... they just aren't always thrown.  

 

 

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Knox is conservatively dropping over 15% of passes thrown his way and has a sub 85 passer rating when thrown at, he doesn't need more targets

 

 

 

On 19 targets... that's a bit of a small sample size.  

[Simon]

3 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Very likely why the average target depth for knox and kincaid are so incredibly low.  Chipping affects your route depth. 

 

Bingo.

That is absolutely a significant factor in this, imo.

1 hour ago, ngbills said:

I can only recall a very few that they are going up the seam or running a corner route etc. A big part of the value is supposed to be pulling the safety to open things up for other guys. Not so much when they are just running quick outs or swings. 

 

The problem with that is that you sort of have to leave Spencer Brown on an island during a play that has a long-developing route combo.

It seems that the Bills coaches have become very averse to doing this, probably for good reason.

[C.Biscuit97]

This should be a top tandem in the league. They should be creating mismatch’s and using 2 tight end sets to run over nickel/ dime defenses. Pretty frustrating given what I thought they could be.

[Simon]

1 hour ago, SWATeam said:

There seems to be a major disconnect between player acquisition and player usage-especially on offense.  You would think that Dorsey would be communicating with Beane on the groceries to buy.

 

I think when they were building in the offseason they may have counted on Spencer Brown being able to do more than he is capable of.

Then when the bullets started flying, they found themselves with little choice but to play things they way that they are now.

[Dubie54]

2 hours ago, Numark3 said:

Is it a goal to have TE production?  For the most part, the offense is humming and the TEs are a part of it.  What is the issue or your point?

 

Hey Dorsey, we want more TE production:

 

dorsey: Why?

 

idk

Just threw out some stats and asked the board for what people's thoughts were.

 

There are definitely differences in our TE production this year which I think is puzzling given the investment we made in Kincaid and the supposed fearsome TE duo we would have.

 

Of course we want TE production, and sure our offense is rated 4th right now, (last year it was 2nd), but the TEs have been less a part of our success than in year's past and yet we now have one more TE weapon to utilize.     

[JJGauna]

Really hard to compare LaPorta and Kincaid. LaPorta has had 2 great games, one with Montgomery out, one with St. Brown out, their top two playmakers.

 

Kincaid on the other hand has been buried behind Diggs and Davis, and rightfully so.

 

Kincaid is an investment in the future for when Diggs and Davis are gone.

[GoBills808]

19 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

They run them... they just aren't always thrown.  

 

 

 

On 19 targets... that's a bit of a small sample size.  

He's a career 64% catch guy on receptions/target tho

 

That's on the low end of where you'd like your TE to be

[HappyDays]

Knox has been a huge disappointment this year. In five games he has made one excellent play. He's only catching 57.9% of his targets which is disgustingly bad for a TE with an elite QB. His drop rate is 15.9%. I would like most of his targets to go to Kincaid. That 3rd down drop he had against the Jags, I guarantee Kincaid brings that in. We need to stop funneling the ball to inefficient targets.

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, Simon said:

 

If they weren't spending half the game covering the RT, they would be a much more dynamic part of the offense.

As it is, the Bills are spending a significant percentage of their passing downs playing 10 vs 11.

 

Knox I understand, he is a better blocker than pass catcher. Kincaid though should not be chipping. That makes no sense. They drafted him to be our slot WR. Dorsey for some reason can't figure out how to get him involved.

[Gunsgoodtime]

25 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Knox has been a huge disappointment this year. In five games he has made one excellent play. He's only catching 57.9% of his targets which is disgustingly bad for a TE with an elite QB. His drop rate is 15.9%. I would like most of his targets to go to Kincaid. That 3rd down drop he had against the Jags, I guarantee Kincaid brings that in. We need to stop funneling the ball to inefficient targets.

I would like to see them transition over to Kincaid as well, and get out of the Knox contract asap.  There was no reason to give that man that huge contract.  

[Simon]

12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Knox I understand, he is a better blocker than pass catcher. Kincaid though should not be chipping. That makes no sense. They drafted him to be our slot WR. Dorsey for some reason can't figure out how to get him involved.

 

I think he wants their roles to be interchangeable so defenses can't key on particular sets.

[JohnNord]

3 hours ago, Dubie54 said:

A couple of things stand out for me in looking at our TE production so far this year.

 

* Knox's production is down, which makes sense now that we have Kincaid. Knox has 11 receptions to Kincaid's 17. Their total of 28

* Avg. yds/catch. Knox is averaging 6.8 (Kincaid 6.9) when in is rookie season he averaged 13.8, and the last 3 seasons he's avgd. 11-12.

* While their catch total of 27 is right behind the league leader Hockenson (30), their combined yds. of 193 ranks 14th.

* Sam LaPorta on the other hand has 25 receptions, 289 yds, and is avg. 11.6. His production is more than double that of Kincaid in almost every category.

 

So for whatever reason, we are not getting the same level of production in terms of yds/catch as we did during Knox's years, and the production Detroit is getting out of LaPorta is pretty impressive. There were a lot more play calls in years past when we threw to the TE down the field and now it seems we are limited to these dump off passes with limited YAC. I remember the days when Knox rumbled 10-15 yds. after a catch because he was out in the flat with space. It seems to me that with the two headed monster in Knox and Kincaid we could create match up problems galore and I just don't see Dorsey taking advantage of that. Thoughts?

 

Here's a link to YTD TE stats:

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/tight-end-reception-leaders-2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The need to find a way to get the TE’s the ball in the middle of the field.  That’s been missing this season.  I have faith that it will happen for Kincaid this season

[HappyDays]

22 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

I think he wants their roles to be interchangeable so defenses can't key on particular sets.

 

That could certainly be his logic, but it doesn't make sense. Beane came right out and said we drafted Kincaid to fill in Beasley's old role. Are he and Dorsey not on the same page? Knox and Kincaid have totally different skill sets so they should not be interchangeable.

[BarleyNY]

20 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

That could certainly be his logic, but it doesn't make sense. Beane came right out and said we drafted Kincaid to fill in Beasley's old role. Are he and Dorsey not on the same page? Knox and Kincaid have totally different skill sets so they should not be interchangeable.

Totally agree. There is so much talk of the Bills changing to a high level of 21 personnel usage - and it all so wrong. The Bills did just what you state - made Kincaid our slot WR. It is no different than us running 11 except Kincaid is a TE in name. And it is in name only since he is a terrible blocker. I'm not sure where the issue lies, but I hope it gets worked out soon. We need production from his spot. I know people will point to the Bills offensive rankings and say that there isn't a problem. But those stats lack important context. We have a top QB in this league so we should have a top offense. If you think that an offense with Derek Carr or Jimmy G should ever be on par with one led by Josh Allen, then you need some remedial football lessons. Where we rank among the top offenses in the league and how our offense performs against top competition should be the yardstick. To do otherwise is nothing more than complacency with what we've been the last few seasons.

[Milanos Milano]

4 hours ago, starrymessenger said:

If anyone thinks Kincaid would be unable to do what LaPorta has done in Detroit they are mistaken. 

So then why don’t we do that here? Is Dorsey incapable of actually using players correctly? 

[finn]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

This should be a top tandem in the league. They should be creating mismatch’s and using 2 tight end sets to run over nickel/ dime defenses. Pretty frustrating given what I thought they could be.

Knox having to help Brown on so many plays is part of the problem, as many posters have pointed out. But it's not clear why Dorsey isn't running Kincaid deeper. 

 

Beane has to be frustrated. He gives Dorsey Hines (who isn't cheap), and Dorsey doesn't use him. Then he drafts Kincaid in the first round, and Dorsey doesn't use him, either, at least not well. 

[Comebackkid]

So a lot of offensive issues starting to attribute to DaD syndrome.  Both now and when Daboll was here.    

Before it was Dumb ass Daboll and now it's Dumb ass Dorsey.

 

[Teddy KGB]

8 hours ago, starrymessenger said:

If anyone thinks Kincaid would be unable to do what LaPorta has done in Detroit they are mistaken. 

he hasn’t done it but sure 🤦🏼‍♂️

[freddyjj]

16 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

don't like the 2 TE looks. Think we're more successful with 3 WRs. That's where we specalize

Only info I could find shows we use 11 personnel on 40% of first downs and 12 personnel on 41% of first downs.  
 

Curious how effective we are as Run 36% of downs and pass on 64% of downs.  
 

Will look for run stats and pass stats from those 2 personnel groupings.  

Edited October 13, 2023 by freddyjj