All-22 analysis of Bills/Jags

[Buffalo716]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

There is a professional defensive coach in this thread saying that Joe was wrong and that our failures in the run game had nothing to do with numbers disadvantages. I'm inclined to believe the guy that schemes defenses for a living versus the professional content creator, as much as I respect what Joe does.

We hardly tried running the ball

 

I wouldn't say it was a atrocious but I wouldn't say there was plays to be made ALL day in the run game .. we barely tried...the defensive and offensive coordinators are having a chess match 

 

And some of the calls are JV esque.. right off rip... 2nd and 1 shotgun toss into a blitz... that's a jv call... You don't run someone laterally when you need one yard.. run an iso or a power O ... spider 2 y banana... shotgun toss is out thinking yourself ... The blitzing defender is setting the edge... 2nd and short has a high probability of someone coming off the edge 

 

That's literally just a terrible play call in a chess match... The bills could come out of four other formations and they have much better calls in their bag... but they get cute 

 

Our whole offense runs much better out of 12 personnel or 21..  get Josh under center for 2nd and one

 

In a game of inches... That's why formations and timing of play calls are the difference...

 

As a defensive guy myself hoof certainly has a better grasp of what we are doing than cover 1

Edited October 10, 2023 by Buffalo716

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Not using Sherfield more is aggravating. The guy is a monster with the ball in his hands. That’s the YAC we are missing we just don’t use personnel correctly 

[Franco_92]

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

There is a professional defensive coach in this thread saying that Joe was wrong and that our failures in the run game had nothing to do with numbers disadvantages. I'm inclined to believe the guy that schemes defenses for a living versus the professional content creator, as much as I respect what Joe does.

Sorry to double-ask, there is an extensive argument clogging the thread though - what level does this guy coach at? Pretty cool to have him here.

 

@HoofHearted, how would you rank some of these guys in terms of how trustworthy their content is? Guys like Erik Turner, Joe Marino, and then league-wide; Brett Kollmann, JT O'Sullivan, if you've seen them (Obviously JT should be pretty good since he spent a decade in NFL QB rooms) 

 

I just ask because I'm dedicating a fairly significant amount of time to learning this game better and want to make sure I am getting good info when I watch stuff. It's surprisingly hard to piece together stuff you need to be able to eventually break down film like this well. I would pay a pretty large sum of money for a targeted course in this sort of thing, and daydream about how it might work often - one could set up video lessons with NFL film to show any level/type of content, and assign film as homework to break down etc. Given the popularity of these youtube channels it seems like there could be general interest/hunger for that sort of thing

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, arcane said:

Sorry to double-ask, there is an extensive argument clogging the thread though - what level does this guy coach at? Pretty cool to have him here.

 

@HoofHearted, how would you rank some of these guys in terms of how trustworthy their content is? Guys like Erik Turner, Joe Marino, and then league-wide; Brett Kollmann, JT O'Sullivan, if you've seen them (Obviously JT should be pretty good since he spent a decade in NFL QB rooms) 

 

I just ask because I'm dedicating a fairly significant amount of time to learning this game better and want to make sure I am getting good info when I watch stuff. It's surprisingly hard to piece together stuff you need to be able to eventually break down film like this well. I would pay a pretty large sum of money for a targeted course in this sort of thing, and daydream about how it might work often - one could set up video lessons with NFL film to show any level/type of content, and assign film as homework to break down etc. Given the popularity of these youtube channels it seems like there could be general interest/hunger for that sort of thing

Most of the people you see are just content creators

 

People have a passion for football and they want to share their opinion... Even guys like JT who know what he's looking at..  and he does 

 

Is still giving you his opinion

 

Because nobody knows the actual play call and duties that entail on the play... You can look at it and formalize an opinion

 

But nobody knows the call... Sean McDermott calling a type of cover 3.. can literally have 5-10 variations.. based on the look the offense gives you... The personnel... The route combination... But nobody knows really besides him 

 

One side could be pattern matching and one not... One side could play the sticks and the other not... Are you playing tighter to the boundary or seam

 

Sean runs palms out of a quarters look which turns into man... based on principles... 2 to 1 principle... Put cover 4 palms into the search engine.. I was the first one to mention it years ago ... But it's really not picked up by other pundits or even content creators

 

Because most people don't understand a zone concept turning into man on a two to one principle inside to outside... And what they're looking at

 

They're just giving an opinion of what they look at... guys like baldinger and JT have more advanced levels obviously 

 

And there's a good amount of people on this site that have played and coached football for a long time and know what they're looking at better than a lot of pundits on the web 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Buffalo716

[HoofHearted]

7 hours ago, WideNine said:

 

When you consistently get more yards on average when executing under center both passing and in your running game why would you not lean into that with more reps?

 

Most anyone knows play action is specifically intended to free up passes downfield. So I am not following your logic that because plays were made downfield there was "no impact by the fact we were under center showing some type of action" - huh?

 

Not sure why folks get so wrapped around the axle with the fact that Allen is more effective operating under center like somehow that cripples him.

 

Maybe not every QB, but the numbers for Allen and this offense jump when he does operate under center. They should do it more no drooling needed.

 

 

 

 

Here’s the disconnect - play action opens up the middle of the field by pulling defenders into the box. Because of this they are now responsible for an immediate gap in the run game and thus have to play run first. This is why play action is successful because it can pull backers and box safeties toward the LoS. It has zero effect on corners eyes or, in the case of what we saw from Jacksonville, MOF Closed Safeties. They’re working their pass keys regardless of the action. Because they were in MOF Closed coverage the majority of the day there wasn’t anything to take advantage of in the middle of the field by using play action which is why every time we ran it except one the pass went outside where, like I said, the corners are just playing coverage as normal based on their key read.

 

Hope that clears it up for you.

[GunnerBill]

The Cook play that lost yards was ABSOLUTELY a play that needed to be audibled. I was screaming at the top of my lungs before we snapped that ball. It was fudging obvious. I said it straight away in the shoutbox. Who knows what their audible rules are there but it was obvious the Jags had an overload to that side. A quick pass to the left would have had the potential to go for big yards. 

 

 

EDIT: I still don't agree that the INT is on Diggs having watched that play back. He is desperately trying to slow up and then come back for the ball so there is no way that he can generate the same momentum and spring in his leap to the DB who is still going and full pelt. That should have been a touchdown. It is the only mistake I though Josh made as a passer all day and it isn't one to kill him for.... that is a low percentage throw.... but I am simply not having that as a receiver mistake. The laws of physics made that throw one in the DBs favour and if it had just been laid out in front Diggs had 4 yards on the defender and was walking into the endzone. 

Edited October 10, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Sherlock Holmes]

8 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

Yes SOME. But you know some of what happens wrong in the Chiefs offense is Mahomes's fault. Is he "flawed" to? Josh is not perfect. But to say offensive struggles are 100% on him which is what you said, then you are ignorant. Dropped passes are not on Josh. Bad oline protection is not on Josh. You realize, that the pads protection calls may be right and that our oline just doesn't block the way they should, right? Or when a lineman misses his man, is that on Josh too? A RB fumbling a ball is not on Josh. Yes, you are very ignorant if you think that's the case. Get a life

Josh needs to become besties with Purdy...Those two need to train together, they will remain the best two QBs in the league for the next 20 years, they will duel in at least 10 Super Bowls, which we win all of BTW.

[HoofHearted]

6 hours ago, arcane said:

Sorry to double-ask, there is an extensive argument clogging the thread though - what level does this guy coach at? Pretty cool to have him here.

 

@HoofHearted, how would you rank some of these guys in terms of how trustworthy their content is? Guys like Erik Turner, Joe Marino, and then league-wide; Brett Kollmann, JT O'Sullivan, if you've seen them (Obviously JT should be pretty good since he spent a decade in NFL QB rooms) 

 

I just ask because I'm dedicating a fairly significant amount of time to learning this game better and want to make sure I am getting good info when I watch stuff. It's surprisingly hard to piece together stuff you need to be able to eventually break down film like this well. I would pay a pretty large sum of money for a targeted course in this sort of thing, and daydream about how it might work often - one could set up video lessons with NFL film to show any level/type of content, and assign film as homework to break down etc. Given the popularity of these youtube channels it seems like there could be general interest/hunger for that sort of thing

I’ve done everything from DI down as a defensive coordinator.

 

As far as the content stuff - I don’t usually have a ton of time to watch most of it. I’ve seen some Cover 1 stuff and I think I’ve said this in the past - they do a good job of regurgitating football terms and giving you maybe a general idea of what’s going on but I’m not sure how much football they actually know. Erik does a better job offensively (probably because there’s more information out there about offense) than he does talking defense. He can tell you general concept names and reads on offense but I’ve never heard him get into specific rules for positions. Defensively he often gets coverages wrong or says players are doing things on “instincts” when really it’s just players playing fast within the rules of the defense whether that be fits or coverages. I don’t know much about the other guys.

 

Scheme is tough to learn without being in it. Coaches are pretty protective of their stuff so if something gets out it’s no longer being used or taught that way anymore. That being said there is a ton of information out there. It’s kind of like a grab bag though - you have to piece together stuff like a puzzle. There aren’t just breakdowns of entire schemes all in one place. Additionally there isn’t a common language spoken when it comes to football. Everyone kind of has their own name for things which can get convoluted when first trying to learn because you’ll hear multiple terms for the same thing depending on what information you’re looking at.

 

If it was easier to upload images on to this site I’d do more in depth breakdown stuff more often but it’s kind of a pain in the butt trying to get multiple images into one post. Maybe someone has a work-around?

[ToGoGo]

10 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

The sad part is, no matter how many valid points we make. You won't change your mind. It is NOT Josh's fault if WRs drop passes unless they are insanely off target which is not the case most times. It is not Josh's fault if he drops back to pass and had the entire defense in his face as soon as he drops back. But you think it is, you realize how that makes no sense and why you are ignorant, right?

He’s just slow. Leave him be. 

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

20 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

The Cook play that lost yards was ABSOLUTELY a play that needed to be audibled. I was screaming at the top of my lungs before we snapped that ball. It was fudging obvious. I said it straight away in the shoutbox. Who knows what their audible rules are there but it was obvious the Jags had an overload to that side. A quick pass to the left would have had the potential to go for big yards. 

 

 

EDIT: I still don't agree that the INT is on Diggs having watched that play back. He is desperately trying to slow up and then come back for the ball so there is no way that he can generate the same momentum and spring in his leap to the DB who is still going and full pelt. That should have been a touchdown. It is the only mistake I though Josh made as a passer all day and it isn't one to kill him for.... that is a low percentage throw.... but I am simply not having that as a receiver mistake. The laws of physics made that throw one in the DBs favour and if it had just been laid out in front Diggs had 4 yards on the defender and was walking into the endzone. 

But you’re yelling in bangers and mash, and the Bills hear in hot dogs and french fries.  

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

But you’re yelling in bangers and mash, and the Bills hear in hot dogs and french fries.  

 

I'd just finished my hot dog!

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Play action all day. Please. 

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

EDIT: I still don't agree that the INT is on Diggs having watched that play back. He is desperately trying to slow up and then come back for the ball so there is no way that he can generate the same momentum and spring in his leap to the DB who is still going and full pelt. That should have been a touchdown. It is the only mistake I though Josh made as a passer all day and it isn't one to kill him for.... that is a low percentage throw.... but I am simply not having that as a receiver mistake. The laws of physics made that throw one in the DBs favour and if it had just been laid out in front Diggs had 4 yards on the defender and was walking into the endzone. 

How many air yards was the pass?  There is a limit to how far even Allen can throw the ball.  In the article that Happy attached it says "70 yards" but I didn't think it traveled that far.  But anything over 60 is the realistic maximum distance for even a guy like Allen.  And again that was a very catchable ball that a lot of the WR's in the NFL make.  In fact I suspect that Diggs catches that exact same pass 4 out of every 5 times.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:

How many air yards was the pass?  There is a limit to how far even Allen can throw the ball.  In the article that Happy attached it says "70 yards" but I didn't think it traveled that far.  But anything over 60 is the realistic maximum distance for even a guy like Allen.  And again that was a very catchable ball that a lot of the WR's in the NFL make.  In fact I suspect that Diggs catches that exact same pass 4 out of every 5 times.

 

 

The first half of this I agree with. It is a low percentage throw and I don't mind him taking the chance, he underthrew it but it is a small and insignificant mistake compared to other things that went on in that game. Doesn't stop me believing Josh played well, certainly well enough to win, on Sunday. 

 

I disagree on the 2nd half. The momentum of the two players at the point that they compete for the football was not equitable. Diggs was at a specific advantage. I'd expect a DB launching into the air from a full speed sprint to win that ball 4 / 5 against a receiver who has slowed and is trying to come back for the football. I'm sure there would be a scientific formula one could do that demonstrates the advantage the DB had. 

[C.Biscuit97]

Salute you for watching it again. Defense gave up 11 points the majority of the game with a million injuries. This loss is solely on the offense. Zero excuses for not putting up more points on board. 
 

the offense can be amazing but twice it has crapped the bed in 2 very winnable games. Very disappointing.

[CincyBillsFan]

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Salute you for watching it again. Defense gave up 11 points the majority of the game with a million injuries. This loss is solely on the offense. Zero excuses for not putting up more points on board. 
 

the offense can be amazing but twice it has crapped the bed in 2 very winnable games. Very disappointing.

Historically isn't that rather common for NFL offenses?  There are more moving parts then the defense and at times the machine gets gummed up and nothing works well.  Fans, including me, then try to ID the cause: it was the OC, the QB, the O line, the WR's, the RB's, the game plan, etc, etc, and etc. Yet in the end this may simply be the fate of every complex system at certain times and the key to success in the NFL is to minimize those times when the offense craps the bed.

 

I always think back to the 1991 AFC championship game against Denver when a healthy Bills offense, at home and on a beautiful weather (for Jan) day could only score 3 points against Denver.  And this was in spite of a season where they had one of the best offenses in NFL history and were loaded with future HOF players.

 

I'm also starting to think that defenses have largely caught up with the offenses.  I wouldn't be shocked if point totals plummet as the season goes on.  Sure Miami got their 70 points but that was likely an aberration.  I haven't looked at the numbers closely but this season seems like we're getting a lot of very low scoring outputs by some teams on certain days.  Also the TO's seem up and the number of defensive TD's seems very high to.

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

So we're back to teams show us a look and we throw our hands up and stop running the ball. 

 

3 attempts in the second half (2 of which were Shotgun draws to Cook for negative yards) and I'm supposed to think that Jacksonville just "took that away"? 

[GunnerBill]

37 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I'm also starting to think that defenses have largely caught up with the offenses.  I wouldn't be shocked if point totals plummet as the season goes on.  Sure Miami got their 70 points but that was likely an aberration.  I haven't looked at the numbers closely but this season seems like we're getting a lot of very low scoring outputs by some teams on certain days.  Also the TO's seem up and the number of defensive TD's seems very high to.

 

 

There as definitely been a defensive adjustment league wide. These things always go in cycles.

[HoofHearted]

38 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

So we're back to teams show us a look and we throw our hands up and stop running the ball. 

 

3 attempts in the second half (2 of which were Shotgun draws to Cook for negative yards) and I'm supposed to think that Jacksonville just "took that away"? 

Incorrect… we only ran one draw in the game.

[thenorthremembers]

People keep pounding on the YAC point, its the QB, not the wideouts.   Its not something that is ever going to change with Josh as the QB.  He is often throwing off platform.   How many times have you seen our wideouts hit in stride allowing them YAC?   Now think of how many times you've seen our wideouts catching the ball low or late or while they are already on the ground?

 

I love Josh.  Wouldnt trade him for pretty much anyone in the league, but the low YAC is a direct result of his playing style.