Allen played well, Spencer Brown always needs help, Spacing issues on offense, and more PFF stats

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, High Football IQ said:

I'm tired of this football geek nonsense.

 

Anyone with a real football IQ that has actually watched the games knows that Allen continues to be a liability against any team not jockeying for the 1st round pick in next year's draft. Yes he'll play that one regular season superbowl type game every year (i.e. last week against Miami) but he just doesn't have a steady hand like the GOAT Mahomes.

 

Speaking of Mahomes he's 3-0 against Trevor Laurence, Allen 0-2. Enough said!

 

The high IQ doesn't extend to spelling I see.

 

 

Edited October 9, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, High Football IQ said:

I'm tired of this football geek nonsense.

 

Anyone with a real football IQ that has actually watched the games knows that Allen continues to be a liability against any team not jockeying for the 1st round pick in next year's draft. Yes he'll play that one regular season superbowl type game every year (i.e. last week against Miami) but he just doesn't have a steady hand like the GOAT Mahomes.

 

Speaking of Mahomes he's 3-0 against Trevor Laurence, Allen 0-2. Enough said!

Allen has gone into Arrowhead twice and beat the Chiefs

 

The bills also lost on an epic defensive collapse

 

Josh  is really close to being 3-2 over your goat 

[finn]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I don't understand if its Allen who passes up on the Tight Ends or it's Dorsey not making them a primary read.  Allen has said he's seen Kincaid open but decided to go somewhere else.  

 

Whatever it is, we need to get them involved.

Could be that he's staying in to help Brown, so his routes are shorter. 

[Einstein]

23 minutes ago, High Football IQ said:

Anyone with a real football IQ that has actually watched the games knows that Allen continues to be a liability against any team not jockeying for the 1st round pick in next year's draft. Yes he'll play that one regular season superbowl type game every year (i.e. last week against Miami) but he just doesn't have a steady hand like the GOAT Mahomes.

 

Speaking of Mahomes he's 3-0 against Trevor Laurence, Allen 0-2. Enough said!

Allen has won 2 of his last 3 games against Mahomes. And in the one game he lost, he left the field with the lead (and only 13 seconds left).

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

• 1) Dodson played 62% of the snaps. Dorian played 36%. Dodson was by far the higher graded of the two, with an 85.5 grade compared to a 32.7 for Dorian. PFF has Dorian missing 40% of his attempted tackles. They are essentially saying that he was flying to the ball, but not finishing.

 

• 2) Allen had the highest CPAE (Completion Percentage Above Expectation) in the NFL this week at 8%. This means Allen completed 8% more of his passes than he should have. Allen’s adjusted completion % (completions + drops / aimed) was 86%.

 

• 3) I don’t know what we are going to do about Spencer Brown. The Bills are giving him help on more than 50% of his snaps and he is still well below the mean. This chart shows how often NFL tackles are left on an island (no help). Brown is 2nd to last in the entire NFL. The only player needing more help is Jermaine Eluemunor, who Raiders fans universally want released.

 

 

 

 

• 4) With play-action, Allen completed 87.5% of his passes with a 14.9 YPA yesterday. He completed 62.5% of his passes with a 7.5 YPA without play action. To really drive this point home, look at his EPA per play both with play-action and without. He has a 3x larger EPA per play with play-action than without.

 

 

 

• 5) Kingsley Jonathan was the highest rated Bills defensive player yesterday at a 92.1. He had 2 hurries, 1 sack, 2 stops and 1 forced fumble. Epenesa was right behind him at 85.7.

 

 

• 6) James Cook had an 11.3 pass block grade, which is the lowest I can personally recall ever seeing. Damien Harris had an 82.3 pass block grade.

 

 

• 7) DaQuan left the game after the 4th play. Milano left the game after the 11th play. Rousseau never played. Tre White never played. Benford never played. That’s FIVE starters out. Yet the defense still forced 2 turnovers and 5 punts. 

 

 

• 8- Dawkins really struggled yesterday, especially with the other Josh Allen. It was clear from watching the game and PFF saw it too. He had the lowest pass blocking grade of all the linemen. 

 

 

• 9) McDermott mentioned after the game that it’s hard to win when you can’t run. EPA shows that he is correct. Our EPA per dropback was top 10 in the NFL this week. Our running EPA was towards the bottom in the NFL.

 

 

 

 

• 10) Elam gave up 6 receptions for 93 yards and was eventually benched. No other Bills player gave up more than 3 receptions. Dane gave up 3 receptions for 30 yards.

 

 

• 11) Taron Johnson was very vocal after the game about how poor the turf was. Mentioned his feet would get stuck. For those interested you can see his comments here.

 

 

• 12) Spacing has felt off all season long. There are 4 Bills receiving options, all within 10 yards of each other. We are not making them defend every blade of grass. We are making them defend a very small piece of grass. This was a big 3rd down that we didn't convert.

 

 

 

• 13) I have absolutely no idea what we gave Harty a $10M contract for. He played roughly 25% of the snaps this week and is averaging 2.2 receptions per game. His special teams contribution has been 5 returns for 40 yards. I just genuinely don’t understand what the plan is for him.

 

• 14) Last note on Allen. HIs passing chart shows solid numbers to all areas and depths of the field.

 

 

 

 

• 15) Lastly, Ben Johnson is the most innovative, fun, creative play caller I have ever seen. I hope he is hired by an NFC team. This is one of the many plays he calls. It constantly keeps defenses guessing.

 

 

1. Yeah, the defense was missing tackles left and right.  Especially as attrition set in.  Its hard to blame the defense because they held for the most part.  Some of that was because they got a turn over. Part of their attrition was not getting off the field on 3rd downs even if the Jags didn't score. 

 

2. Josh had a good game. People blaming Josh this week are out of their minds

 

3. I been saying all year that Brown is a problem and get told I am wrong

 

4. Everyone but Dorsey sees that Josh under center and playaction is the way to go. I'm getting tired of seeing shotgun handoff and shotgun spread.

 

6. Cook was terrible this week

 

7. We were definitely short handed. It is a concern going forward. The injuries are much more a problem than the loss is.

 

8. I didn't pay attention to individual struggles but the line definitely struggled this week as a whole. It was part of the offensive problem this week.

 

9. Yup, our run game sucked

 

10. Elam was terrible. I don't get it. He was slow to react to route changes, was shaken out of his shoes, was 5 yards off the receptions. Last year he stuck to people like glue, so I don't understand why he is struggling this year.

 

11.  As he should be

 

12. I been banging the table about spacing all year and this spans back to last season. Every game we see receivers all bunched in the same area.  No one else seemed concerned about that.

 

13. Dorsey seems to have trouble working anyone into this offense. He couldn't work Hines in who is a good pass catching back, he isn't using Cook properly, he has no plan for any of the receivers.  I just don't think he is a very good or creative OC.  Sure, he has good games like Miami, but I think his good games are more from a result of having Josh Allen than it is him being a good OC

 

14. As I said above, Allen had a good game and anyone blaming him is out of their minds. This was not the Jets game.

 

 

[Old Coot]

3 hours ago, loveorhatembillsfan4life said:

The spacing point is a bit concerning.  I wonder if that is  a product of Dorsey’s design or guys just not understanding where they are supposed to be? 

Agreed. If by design Dorsey must have a reason. Could it be to give Josh some quick reads?

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

The big third down and four w 3 mins left blitz that left Hyde in man on Ridley was really tough 

Yep. I bet Lawrence noticed it and knew he had a one-on-one advantage.

 

Those who live by the blitz die by the blitz if the unblocked rusher doesn't get home in time.

[bouds]

I’m not just saying that because of this week, but I feel Harris needs more run, with Cook coming in to change the pace.  There’s a reason he’s always been the second option, he lacks things that you need every down, and pass pro is huge on a team that rosters and starts Spencer Brown.

 

I appreciate the work you put into the thread. Love reading it. Agree about Johnson, he’s been doing a great job the last two seasons. 

[Kornfed]

Chris Brown mentioned today that the Jags D was best in the league against 12 personnel coming into the game. I've not been down on Dorsey and have reminded some friends that the Bills are/were adjusting to the new (12) offense. Well, I can't imagine the Bills not knowing about the Jags D verses 12 being best. That said, where were the adjustments? They bring a safety into the box, ya may wanna consider trying to get Knox or Kincade open on some moderate/deeper seam routes. ..... Starting to become concerned about Dorsey. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

11-7 for the entire 3rd quarter, and the Bills ran the ball a total of 3 times in the second half. 

 

Once to Damien Harris under Center for 5 yards. 

 

Twice to Cook out of Shotgun for -2 yards (one of those was with 5:00 minutes to go behind two scores). 

 

So when McDermott talks about how he wanted to run more but couldn't establish the line of scrimmage, that's just a cliche answer that wasn't pushed back on at all. 

 

 

Edited October 9, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[CSBill]

4 hours ago, Einstein said:

12) Spacing has felt off all season long. There are 4 Bills receiving options, all within 10 yards of each other. We are not making them defend every blade of grass. We are making them defend a very small piece of grass. This was a big 3rd down that we didn't convert.

 

I agree. I have wondered all season why we always seem to have receivers running into or near each other. Can't this be easily fixed? Make the Defense defend the entire field--and this also makes you much more susceptible to interceptions.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

32 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

I understand the sentiment but I have a hard time blaming Dorsey for this. The o-line was being bench pressed by the Jags d-line. Run plays would be wasted plays.

But wait, WGR told me that it was the Jets that are just a bad matchup for the Bills offense.

 

Now it’s the Jags too?

[Einstein]

18 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

But wait, WGR told me that it was the Jets that are just a bad matchup for the Bills offense.

 

Now it’s the Jags too?

 

Any d-line that can wreak havoc on an o-line is a bad matchup for any team.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Confused about Johnathan. 

[34-78-83]

23 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Yeah I mean we lost the LOS battle on nearly every snap.

At first I thought it was a rub play with Knox clearing out.

But then he didn't. 

And then we had 3 players all running to the strongside boundary. It just seems asinine. 

Erik Turner brought up the same play w/ Cover 1... He couldn't figure out if Knox was free styling bc the rub should have occurred naturally between the 2 crossers. Also seems like Cook ran his route in the wrong direction.

 

You made some excellent and accurate points in your original post.

 

I disagree a little with the Harty point. Although you're right that his use has been limited. He contributed positively to the output this week. Needs to be in on a few more snaps and down field routes.... Sherfield also, in a different way of course, although he is getting snaps.

[Freak-O]

On 10/9/2023 at 7:52 PM, loveorhatembillsfan4life said:

This is great thank you!

 

The spacing point is a bit concerning.  I wonder if that is  a product of Dorsey’s design or guys just not understanding where they are supposed to be? 

Either Dorsey is just bad or the players really dumb.  I get someone getting the play wrong and being in the wrong place, but all four of them being at the same place? That’s just odd. 

[DapperCam]

On 10/9/2023 at 2:21 PM, Straight Hucklebuck said:

This is another game that goes into the Daboll/Dorsey pile of why didn't we try to run the ball more? It's a one score game and it's just pass-pass-pass-pass, meanwhile the TOP just got more and more lopsided as the game went on. 

 

At the start of the 4th the Jags had the ball for 29 minutes, and the Bills were at 15 minutes. 

 

We conclude we couldn't run the ball yesterday, but what is Harris and Murray going to do on 6 combined carries?

 

Why the stubborn, insistence on running out of shotgun with Cook on delayed/draw plays that TAKE TOO LONG?

It does feel like if they slammed Murray or Harris into the line for 3 ypc the entire game we would have been a lot better off.

 

It would have kept the Jags pass rushers from pinning their ears back, made for more manageable 2nd/3rd down, and kept the TOP closer. The final Jags scores were because the Bills defense was exhausted.

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by DapperCam

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

23 hours ago, boco357 said:

Gotta move on from Cook faster next time and lean on Harris and Murray.

Yes I agree. I thought Cook looked like he was sleep walking right from the beginning. Harris did well when given the chance. I don't get the reluctance to give Harris especially more play. He is good.

[finn]

On 10/9/2023 at 4:01 PM, High Football IQ said:

I'm tired of this football geek nonsense.

 

Anyone with a real football IQ that has actually watched the games knows that Allen continues to be a liability against any team not jockeying for the 1st round pick in next year's draft. Yes he'll play that one regular season superbowl type game every year (i.e. last week against Miami) but he just doesn't have a steady hand like the GOAT Mahomes.

 

Speaking of Mahomes he's 3-0 against Trevor Laurence, Allen 0-2. Enough said!

Is this post supposed to be sarcastic, playful, ironic, satirical? If so, I admire the advanced humor. Love the "High Football IQ." Good stuff! 

 

If you're serious, well, yikes. Hope your family is taking care of you. 

[Xwnyer]

Point 12.  This has been an issue all of last year and this.  Either this offense is designed for all receivers to be near each other or all have hot reads and all end up going in the same area.  Makes it very easy to defend.  This offense needs to be spread out with space between receivers.

[Warcodered]

On 10/9/2023 at 2:23 PM, Bangarang said:

I’m just going to keep harping on Dorsey because it’s been a problem since he’s been an OC.

 

Our route concepts are really bad. Way too many times we’ve seen multiple receivers within yards of each other. We paid Harty a good salary but we only know how to get him the ball with screens that don’t go anywhere. We know Cook is a weapon catching the ball but we literally can’t scheme a RB screen to save our lives or get him the ball on crossers. We all know the struggles with watching Kincaid run 3 yard routes and then get dumped to the ground. 
 

It’s really a mismanagement of personnel and that’s on Dorsey.

So it doesn't make sense for a bunch of them to all end up at the same place, but I think there are plays where there could be still where they're together to create traffic before they separate, at least I have to wonder if that's what it is or if someone ran the wrong route because that just makes so little sense.