Allen played well, Spencer Brown always needs help, Spacing issues on offense, and more PFF stats

[Mikie2times]

41 minutes ago, Einstein said:

• 15) Lastly, Ben Johnson is the most innovative, fun, creative play caller I have ever seen. I hope he is hired by an NFC team. This is one of the many plays he calls. It constantly keeps defenses guessing.

 

lol...I caught a pass off that play in high school. First time I have ever seen anybody else run it. 

[BullBuchanan]

Allen didn't make any big mistakes and made some good plays, but he played the entire game too tentatively and it resulted in delayed passes. He had two deep underthrows that both would have went for TDs, plus numerous underneath throws that got out of his hand too slowly (swing passes to RBs come to mind) that caused players to have to stop their route and killed any chance of YAC. He needs to process faster and get the ball out if we want to take the next step as an offense.

[Warriorspikes51]

2 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

This is another game that goes into the Daboll/Dorsey pile of why didn't we try to run the ball more? It's a one score game and it's just pass-pass-pass-pass, meanwhile the TOP just got more and more lopsided as the game went on. 

 

At the start of the 4th the Jags had the ball for 29 minutes, and the Bills were at 15 minutes. 

 

We conclude we couldn't run the ball yesterday, but what is Harris and Murray going to do on 6 combined carries?

 

Why the stubborn, insistence on running out of shotgun with Cook on delayed/draw plays that TAKE TOO LONG?

Delayed handoffs to Cook from Shotgun are absolutely awful.  The whole opposing Defense reads the play easily every time and Cook is lucky if he doesn't lose yardage.

Also, why use 2TE sets so often if you don't throw to your high end rookie more than 5 yards down the field. Very annoying. 

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Allen didn't make any big mistakes and made some good plays, but he played the entire game too tentatively and it resulted in delayed passes. He had two deep underthrows that both would have went for TDs, plus numerous underneath throws that got out of his hand too slowly (swing passes to RBs come to mind) that caused players to have to stop their route and killed any chance of YAC. He needs to process faster and get the ball out if we want to take the next step as an offense.

It did appear Diggs would have scored 2 deep TD's if the ball had more air on it / was on time 

[Warcodered]

4 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

This is another game that goes into the Daboll/Dorsey pile of why didn't we try to run the ball more? It's a one score game and it's just pass-pass-pass-pass, meanwhile the TOP just got more and more lopsided as the game went on. 

 

At the start of the 4th the Jags had the ball for 29 minutes, and the Bills were at 15 minutes. 

 

We conclude we couldn't run the ball yesterday, but what is Harris and Murray going to do on 6 combined carries?

 

Why the stubborn, insistence on running out of shotgun with Cook on delayed/draw plays that TAKE TOO LONG?

I want to know what the stats were when we ran the ball from under center, we already know how much better we were throwing it. I just get the feeling we were more effective there at both and the fact that we didn't go under center the majority of the time is maddening.

[CincyBillsFan]

21 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

TE’s are underperforming ypc. Spencer Brown needing chips all the time could be the reason. 

I suspect it's a big reason.

[mrags]

100% in just about everything. I’d add in my biggest issues. Spacing and play design are absolutely 100% a problem and are on Dorsey. It’s not just certain players. It’s all the time with everyone. The players might not be right some of the time. But it really feels like all the time. Back when we had Daboll we had guys just wide open in areas. I haven’t seen that since. Maybe a bit of the beginning of last season. But it went away quickly. 
 

Dorsey or the coaching staff in general are 100% the reason why we misuse players. Why draft a TE in the first round and don’t have game plans for him. Again? It’s not that Kincaid is bad. Even Knox’s production has gone down since Dorsey took over. He just doesn’t know how to utilize the TE position.

 

I agree 100% with The Harty statement. I mean, first off I just believe the guy sucks. Was baffled at them signing him, especially for the money they did. Could have kept McKenzie for half of what you’re paying Harty. At least you would have some funny locker room videos with him and the fat slob Dawkins singing Backstreet Boys. 
 

If it’s on Dorsey for not fixing these things then it’s on McDermott. Just like the defense and its blunders over the years. McDermott is loyal to a fault and refused to get rid of Frazier. I hope he finally gets it into his head and does something about Dorsey. Either tell him and force him to make changes, or find another team to make worse with better weapons than the last guy had. 

Edited October 9, 2023 by mrags

[whorlnut]

So basically their obsession with 12 personnel seems to be born out of the idea that brown needs help on the line. That’s pathetic. Takes the whole benefit of 2 TEs in the passing game out of the equation. 

[jletha]

Felt like the offense and defense werent in sync. When the offense finally started to get going the defense started to let them move it and score.

 

This game was just a few plays here and there from being a win. This game wouldnt be so bad, given the circumctances, if we had just beaten the Jets week 1.

[Einstein]

Another interesting note that Jeremy White made is that Dawson Knox's YPC has been steadily going down each year of his career. 14, 12, 12, 11, and this year it's 7.

[Mango]

14 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

If Allen throws a little farther or Diggs manages to come down with that contested catch, I think we win the game 

Also, bad drops by Davis and Knox 

 

I was a little confused on that play. I thought those 50/50 balls went to the offense. Watching the replay they showed on TV it looked like there were 4 hands on the ball until they went to the ground....but once they hit the ground the play should be dead, play over, since they are down by contact.

Maybe I missed something on the replay on TV or maybe there weren't 4 hands on the ball. I don't know. But that was my thoughts watching it live. 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

6 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

I was a little confused on that play. I thought those 50/50 balls went to the offense. Watching the replay they showed on TV it looked like there were 4 hands on the ball until they went to the ground....but once they hit the ground the play should be dead, play over, since they are down by contact.

Maybe I missed something on the replay on TV or maybe there weren't 4 hands on the ball. I don't know. But that was my thoughts watching it live. 

If there's a simultaneous catch the rulebook says it goes to the offense. 

 

I don't think Diggs did quite enough for that rule to come into play. It was close though. 

 

Spencer Brown is the worst starter on this team even if he's not showing up on the stat sheet with sacks allowed. Josh was sacked 0 times yesterday, but the O-line (Brown in particular) were awful. 

 

 

 

[finn]

37 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Like you said Brown gets a lot of help. Interesting enough (to me) is that Dawkins isn't far behind him for amount of help they get. OT is still an issue on both sides.

I'm surprised Dawkins graded out poorly, especially when the Jags' Josh Allen was credited with just one tackle. I do recall him being walked back into our Josh Allen on one play (on which Dawkins was called for a hold), but Allen seemed to have as much (or little) time as he does usually. 

[jkeerie]

52 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

Mostly accurate observations. I do think they may have unlocked something with Harty this past game. In weeks 1-4 they used him like a "gadget" player as opposed to a more "traditional" WR. I think in London they used him like a WR and it paid off with a pair of catches for 62 yards. If they can continue to use him that way I think his production ticks up. 

 

Elam was bad no doubt but I also think he was put in a position to fail. The dude went from four straight inactive games to starting in London against a good WR who had been in London the week before. I think he can get coached up some more and while he may or may not reach his drafted potential he will at least get better than he was against the Jags. I also think Benford coming back will allow Elam to take reduced snaps and put the team in a position to bring him along more slowly. Dane and Benford can be an effective starting tandem. 

 

I also generally agree with Dodson who seemingly played well and did a good job but I also liked the quickness I saw from Dorian Willaims he just may need some time to cook in order to make the tackles and plays to the spots he flys so quickly to. 

Remember, too, that with Dorian more in the line-up, communication will get better.  Romo last week...who BTW is a jinx for the Bills...mentioned that the communication between Bernard and Milano and the entire defense was outstanding.  He also said after watching Milano after Tre went out, that the Bills could ill afford to lose him to injury, and he touted DaQuon's play all game.  Thus...he is a jinx. 

[Royale with Cheese]

12 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Another interesting note that Jeremy White made is that Dawson Knox's YPC has been steadily going down each year of his career. 14, 12, 12, 11, and this year it's 7.

 

I don't understand if its Allen who passes up on the Tight Ends or it's Dorsey not making them a primary read.  Allen has said he's seen Kincaid open but decided to go somewhere else.  

 

Whatever it is, we need to get them involved.

[Charles Romes]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

• 1) Dodson played 62% of the snaps. Dorian played 36%. Dodson was by far the higher graded of the two, with an 85.5 grade compared to a 32.7 for Dorian. PFF has Dorian missing 40% of his attempted tackles. They are essentially saying that he was flying to the ball, but not finishing.

 

• 2) Allen had the highest CPAE (Completion Percentage Above Expectation) in the NFL this week at 8%. This means Allen completed 8% more of his passes than he should have. Allen’s adjusted completion % (completions + drops / aimed) was 86%.

 

• 3) I don’t know what we are going to do about Spencer Brown. The Bills are giving him help on more than 50% of his snaps and he is still well below the mean. This chart shows how often NFL tackles are left on an island (no help). Brown is 2nd to last in the entire NFL. The only player needing more help is Jermaine Eluemunor, who Raiders fans universally want released.

 

 

 

 

• 4) With play-action, Allen completed 87.5% of his passes with a 14.9 YPA yesterday. He completed 62.5% of his passes with a 7.5 YPA without play action. To really drive this point home, look at his EPA per play both with play-action and without. He has a 3x larger EPA per play with play-action than without.

 

 

 

• 5) Kingsley Jonathan was the highest rated Bills defensive player yesterday at a 92.1. He had 2 hurries, 1 sack, 2 stops and 1 forced fumble. Epenesa was right behind him at 85.7.

 

 

• 6) James Cook had an 11.3 pass block grade, which is the lowest I can personally recall ever seeing. Damien Harris had an 82.3 pass block grade.

 

 

• 7) DaQuan left the game after the 4th play. Milano left the game after the 11th play. Rousseau never played. Tre White never played. Benford never played. That’s FIVE starters out. Yet the defense still forced 2 turnovers and 5 punts. 

 

 

• 8- Dawkins really struggled yesterday, especially with the other Josh Allen. It was clear from watching the game and PFF saw it too. He had the lowest pass blocking grade of all the linemen. 

 

 

• 9) McDermott mentioned after the game that it’s hard to win when you can’t run. EPA shows that he is correct. Our EPA per dropback was top 10 in the NFL this week. Our running EPA was towards the bottom in the NFL.

 

 

 

 

• 10) Elam gave up 6 receptions for 93 yards and was eventually benched. No other Bills player gave up more than 3 receptions. Dane gave up 3 receptions for 30 yards.

 

 

• 11) Taron Johnson was very vocal after the game about how poor the turf was. Mentioned his feet would get stuck. For those interested you can see his comments here.

 

 

• 12) Spacing has felt off all season long. There are 4 Bills receiving options, all within 10 yards of each other. We are not making them defend every blade of grass. We are making them defend a very small piece of grass. This was a big 3rd down that we didn't convert.

 

 

 

• 13) I have absolutely no idea what we gave Harty a $10M contract for. He played roughly 25% of the snaps this week and is averaging 2.2 receptions per game. His special teams contribution has been 5 returns for 40 yards. I just genuinely don’t understand what the plan is for him.

 

• 14) Last note on Allen. HIs passing chart shows solid numbers to all areas and depths of the field.

 

 

 

 

• 15) Lastly, Ben Johnson is the most innovative, fun, creative play caller I have ever seen. I hope he is hired by an NFC team. This is one of the many plays he calls. It constantly keeps defenses guessing.

 

 

5) Kingsley Jonathan was the highest rated Bills defensive player yesterday at a 92.1. He had 2 hurries, 1 sack, 2 stops and 1 forced fumble. Epenesa was right behind him at 85.7.

 

I thought Jonathan had a chance to break through. This is great news. How hard is it to grow a legitimate young pass rusher literally out of nowhere, not even spending a 7th rounder. 

Edited October 9, 2023 by Charles Romes

[Straight Hucklebuck]

24 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I want to know what the stats were when we ran the ball from under center, we already know how much better we were throwing it. I just get the feeling we were more effective there at both and the fact that we didn't go under center the majority of the time is maddening.

I will watch the Dorsey interview and hope someone will ask some version of why didn't you run the ball more, why not more play action, were you aware of the time of possession gap, what was the approach, where is Dalton Kincaid. 

 

It's a loss so maybe there will be more critical thinking that the past three weeks where it's "describe what Josh Allen means to you" 

[BADOLBILZ]

 

9) I'd always expect the least physically fit.........which would be the offensive line.........to be the most affected by travel.   I think the decision to wait to travel until late in the week.........especially versus a team with a whole extra week to adjust.........was clearly a mistake.

 

13) I guess they thought Harty was still the same player that they saw excel in limited exposure in 2021.    He's simply not as fast or as explosive as he was then.   They should have done their homework better, clearly.   And even then I can't explain why he got more than a league minimum flyer with incentives after missing almost all of last season with a debilitating toe injury.   Sloppy work by pro personnel and Beane on that one.   Whatever the plan was at the time.........there just isn't a lot you can do with a WR who is 5'6" without the speed/quickness to break off CB's. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

• 1) Dodson played 62% of the snaps. Dorian played 36%. Dodson was by far the higher graded of the two, with an 85.5 grade compared to a 32.7 for Dorian. PFF has Dorian missing 40% of his attempted tackles. They are essentially saying that he was flying to the ball, but not finishing.

 

• 2) Allen had the highest CPAE (Completion Percentage Above Expectation) in the NFL this week at 8%. This means Allen completed 8% more of his passes than he should have. Allen’s adjusted completion % (completions + drops / aimed) was 86%.

 

• 3) I don’t know what we are going to do about Spencer Brown. The Bills are giving him help on more than 50% of his snaps and he is still well below the mean. This chart shows how often NFL tackles are left on an island (no help). Brown is 2nd to last in the entire NFL. The only player needing more help is Jermaine Eluemunor, who Raiders fans universally want released.

 

 

 

 

• 4) With play-action, Allen completed 87.5% of his passes with a 14.9 YPA yesterday. He completed 62.5% of his passes with a 7.5 YPA without play action. To really drive this point home, look at his EPA per play both with play-action and without. He has a 3x larger EPA per play with play-action than without.

 

 

 

• 5) Kingsley Jonathan was the highest rated Bills defensive player yesterday at a 92.1. He had 2 hurries, 1 sack, 2 stops and 1 forced fumble. Epenesa was right behind him at 85.7.

 

 

• 6) James Cook had an 11.3 pass block grade, which is the lowest I can personally recall ever seeing. Damien Harris had an 82.3 pass block grade.

 

 

• 7) DaQuan left the game after the 4th play. Milano left the game after the 11th play. Rousseau never played. Tre White never played. Benford never played. That’s FIVE starters out. Yet the defense still forced 2 turnovers and 5 punts. 

 

 

• 8- Dawkins really struggled yesterday, especially with the other Josh Allen. It was clear from watching the game and PFF saw it too. He had the lowest pass blocking grade of all the linemen. 

 

 

• 9) McDermott mentioned after the game that it’s hard to win when you can’t run. EPA shows that he is correct. Our EPA per dropback was top 10 in the NFL this week. Our running EPA was towards the bottom in the NFL.

 

 

 

 

• 10) Elam gave up 6 receptions for 93 yards and was eventually benched. No other Bills player gave up more than 3 receptions. Dane gave up 3 receptions for 30 yards.

 

 

• 11) Taron Johnson was very vocal after the game about how poor the turf was. Mentioned his feet would get stuck. For those interested you can see his comments here.

 

 

• 12) Spacing has felt off all season long. There are 4 Bills receiving options, all within 10 yards of each other. We are not making them defend every blade of grass. We are making them defend a very small piece of grass. This was a big 3rd down that we didn't convert.

 

 

 

• 13) I have absolutely no idea what we gave Harty a $10M contract for. He played roughly 25% of the snaps this week and is averaging 2.2 receptions per game. His special teams contribution has been 5 returns for 40 yards. I just genuinely don’t understand what the plan is for him.

 

• 14) Last note on Allen. HIs passing chart shows solid numbers to all areas and depths of the field.

 

 

 

 

• 15) Lastly, Ben Johnson is the most innovative, fun, creative play caller I have ever seen. I hope he is hired by an NFC team. This is one of the many plays he calls. It constantly keeps defenses guessing.

 

 

I agree with every point here and it pretty much all aligns with what I saw in the stadium (with the exception actually of the Dodson grade, I thought he was better than Williams but struggled in space as well). 

 

On #15 Johnson is one of the most innovative and creative RUN game coordinators you have ever seen. And he is that. His passing game is very simple and quite vanilla. He is a bit Greg Roman like in that regard but I think he understands who his players are in the pass game better than Roman and leans into what they do. Their passing game callsheet has got fewer pass concepts than most teams in the league based on what he calls. But he is a genius in the run game. 

[Nephilim17]

@EinsteinThanks for the info.

 

Any chance you can help me out and share what PFF says, if anything, on the Buffalo blitzes on third down? I have a bet with someone who says they blitzed "every third done" and I need some conclusive evidence. If all PFF has is the overall number of Buffalo blitzes that may help too (if it's lower than the number of third downs that Jags had).

many thanks. 🍻

[ngbills]

If Brown needs help and Cook cant pass protect that is a problem. 

 

I am ready to ditch our fake 12 personnel. Well I should say the shotgun 12 personnel. We either go all in running our base offense from under center, going play action and having Murray/Harris on the field much more. More of west coast style offense. Or just go shotgun with 5 wide and go fast tempo. We are stuck in this in between scheme that is slow tempo, shotgun, short passing attack. Teams are on to us and most seem to be faster than us. So all the short stuff gets chased down easily with no yac