Allen played well, Spencer Brown always needs help, Spacing issues on offense, and more PFF stats

[Einstein]

• 1) Dodson played 62% of the snaps. Dorian played 36%. Dodson was by far the higher graded of the two, with an 85.5 grade compared to a 32.7 for Dorian. PFF has Dorian missing 40% of his attempted tackles. They are essentially saying that he was flying to the ball, but not finishing.

 

• 2) Allen had the highest CPAE (Completion Percentage Above Expectation) in the NFL this week at 8%. This means Allen completed 8% more of his passes than he should have. Allen’s adjusted completion % (completions + drops / aimed) was 86%.

 

• 3) I don’t know what we are going to do about Spencer Brown. The Bills are giving him help on more than 50% of his snaps and he is still well below the mean. This chart shows how often NFL tackles are left on an island (no help). Brown is 2nd to last in the entire NFL. The only player needing more help is Jermaine Eluemunor, who Raiders fans universally want released.

 

 

 

 

• 4) With play-action, Allen completed 87.5% of his passes with a 14.9 YPA yesterday. He completed 62.5% of his passes with a 7.5 YPA without play action. To really drive this point home, look at his EPA per play both with play-action and without. He has a 3x larger EPA per play with play-action than without.

 

 

 

• 5) Kingsley Jonathan was the highest rated Bills defensive player yesterday at a 92.1. He had 2 hurries, 1 sack, 2 stops and 1 forced fumble. Epenesa was right behind him at 85.7.

 

 

• 6) James Cook had an 11.3 pass block grade, which is the lowest I can personally recall ever seeing. Damien Harris had an 82.3 pass block grade.

 

 

• 7) DaQuan left the game after the 4th play. Milano left the game after the 11th play. Rousseau never played. Tre White never played. Benford never played. That’s FIVE starters out. Yet the defense still forced 2 turnovers and 5 punts. 

 

 

• 8- Dawkins really struggled yesterday, especially with the other Josh Allen. It was clear from watching the game and PFF saw it too. He had the lowest pass blocking grade of all the linemen. 

 

 

• 9) McDermott mentioned after the game that it’s hard to win when you can’t run. EPA shows that he is correct. Our EPA per dropback was top 10 in the NFL this week. Our running EPA was towards the bottom in the NFL.

 

 

 

 

• 10) Elam gave up 6 receptions for 93 yards and was eventually benched. No other Bills player gave up more than 3 receptions. Dane gave up 3 receptions for 30 yards.

 

 

• 11) Taron Johnson was very vocal after the game about how poor the turf was. Mentioned his feet would get stuck. For those interested you can see his comments here.

 

 

• 12) Spacing has felt off all season long. There are 4 Bills receiving options, all within 10 yards of each other. We are not making them defend every blade of grass. We are making them defend a very small piece of grass. This was a big 3rd down that we didn't convert.

 

 

 

• 13) I have absolutely no idea what we gave Harty a $10M contract for. He played roughly 25% of the snaps this week and is averaging 2.2 receptions per game. His special teams contribution has been 5 returns for 40 yards. I just genuinely don’t understand what the plan is for him.

 

• 14) Last note on Allen. HIs passing chart shows solid numbers to all areas and depths of the field.

 

 

 

 

• 15) Lastly, Ben Johnson is the most innovative, fun, creative play caller I have ever seen. I hope he is hired by an NFC team. This is one of the many plays he calls. It constantly keeps defenses guessing.

 

Edited October 9, 2023 by Einstein

[billsfan89]

Mostly accurate observations. I do think they may have unlocked something with Harty this past game. In weeks 1-4 they used him like a "gadget" player as opposed to a more "traditional" WR. I think in London they used him like a WR and it paid off with a pair of catches for 62 yards. If they can continue to use him that way I think his production ticks up. 

 

Elam was bad no doubt but I also think he was put in a position to fail. The dude went from four straight inactive games to starting in London against a good WR who had been in London the week before. I think he can get coached up some more and while he may or may not reach his drafted potential he will at least get better than he was against the Jags. I also think Benford coming back will allow Elam to take reduced snaps and put the team in a position to bring him along more slowly. Dane and Benford can be an effective starting tandem. 

 

I also generally agree with Dodson who seemingly played well and did a good job but I also liked the quickness I saw from Dorian Willaims he just may need some time to cook in order to make the tackles and plays to the spots he flys so quickly to. 

[78thealltimegreat]

Josh this season has literally played one bad half of football. The difference in this game that PFF noted above when Josh is your leading rusher with 23 yards and Etienne was their leading rusher with 126 that was this game in a nutshell. 

[loveorhatembillsfan4life]

This is great thank you!

 

The spacing point is a bit concerning.  I wonder if that is  a product of Dorsey’s design or guys just not understanding where they are supposed to be? 

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

when Josh is your leading rusher with 23 yards and Etienne was their leading rusher with 126 that was this game in a nutshell. 

 

Yeah I mean we lost the LOS battle on nearly every snap.

Just now, loveorhatembillsfan4life said:

 

The spacing point is a bit concerning.  I wonder if that is  a product of Dorsey’s design or guys just not understanding where they are supposed to be? 

At first I thought it was a rub play with Knox clearing out.

But then he didn't. 

And then we had 3 players all running to the strongside boundary. It just seems asinine. 

[Mango]

34 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

• 10) Elam gave up 6 receptions for 93 yards and was eventually benched. No other Bills player gave up more than 3 receptions. Dane gave up 3 receptions for 30 yards.

 

 

• 11) Taron Johnson was very vocal after the game about how poor the turf was. Mentioned his feet would get stuck. For those interested you can see his comments here.

 

 

• 12) Spacing has felt off all season long. There are 4 Bills receiving options, all within 10 yards of each other. We are not making them defend every blade of grass. We are making them defend a very small piece of grass. This was a big 3rd down that we didn't convert.

 

 

 

 

 

10) I think Elam surpassed any reasonable expectations anybody can have for a CB4 on the outside. I will say it for the 100th time after the game, I don't understand how in all 6 receptions Elam seemed to have exactly zero safety help over top. Why leave your CB4 so exposed against Calvin Ridley? Another poster noted that it seemed like Elam was targeted every time we had a DB blitz on the opposite side of the formation. It seemed like Elam held his own until late Q3/early Q4. Jacksonville seemed to pick something else we missed.

 

11) Taron was lights out yesterday. I cannot believe the NFL shared the video of the field going in this week. That was an immediate red flag for me. 

12) That still is the 3rd down play to Cook I believe? I think Diggs was also open with a slightly quicker release for a first down as well. But to your point that play design was a head scratcher for me in the moment as well. I have been pounding the drum to spread the field and the ball out more. it allows for more big plays, opens up the run, and makes the job for the entire  OL, Allen, and Diggs much much easier. When we run everything tight, we complete tight window passes, for tough catches, and hard yards. For everybody who wonders "why other teams..." I think this is a big reason why. 

Edited October 9, 2023 by Mango

[Rubes]

3 minutes ago, loveorhatembillsfan4life said:

This is great thank you!

 

The spacing point is a bit concerning.  I wonder if that is  a product of Dorsey’s design or guys just not understanding where they are supposed to be? 

 

I get the sense that it's the latter. I do believe (perhaps moreso than others) that Dorsey knows what he's doing with play design. The execution is what seems to be getting in the way. Perhaps that's a reflection of how complicated the offensive design is, I don't know. But there are times when some of the newer guys don't seem to know where they're supposed to be.

 

It may also be a reflection of why it took Harty so long to get on the field as anything other than a gadget player.

 

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, Mango said:

12) That still is the 3rd down play to Cook I believe?

 

It was an incomplete pass to Knox.

[BuffaloBillyG]

Like you said Brown gets a lot of help. Interesting enough (to me) is that Dawkins isn't far behind him for amount of help they get. OT is still an issue on both sides.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

TE’s are underperforming ypc. Spencer Brown needing chips all the time could be the reason. 

Edited October 9, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[billyudi]

9 minutes ago, Rubes said:

 

I get the sense that it's the latter. I do believe (perhaps moreso than others) that Dorsey knows what he's doing with play design. The execution is what seems to be getting in the way. Perhaps that's a reflection of how complicated the offensive design is, I don't know. But there are times when some of the newer guys don't seem to know where they're supposed to be.

 

It may also be a reflection of why it took Harty so long to get on the field as anything other than a gadget player.

 

 

I'm not so sure, as this was a criticism with the offense last year as well from what I remember.

[ShakAttack]

Seems like White/Benford were missed the most yesterday, simply because Elam had to start.  That was easily the weak link of our defense.  Everyone else actually played well for the most part, including the backups.  This was actually encouraging for me (even if it sucks that our weak link was a former 1st round pick playing man coverage which was supposedly his thing) 

[Einstein]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Interesting enough (to me) is that Dawkins isn't far behind him for amount of help they get. 

I have a feeling that part of that is because teams know they can leave an individual pass rusher on Spencer and still win, whereas on the left side they may need to send an extra rusher, so the back is instinctively floating left to pick up any free runners.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, billyudi said:

 

I'm not so sure, as this was a criticism with the offense last year as well from what I remember.

Bills like to run high low concepts. It’s poor execution. Poor route running when they get too close.

[pocoboy]

If you are really thinking about any trade, RT should be the target. Milano & Jones are going to be sorely missed, but you mostly have the cats on offense to go toe to toe. BUT you are going to limit your effectiveness if you're playing protection games to cover Brown. Upgrade there and give yourself every chance of making the Kincaid/Knox experiment work.

[Low Positive]

Just now, pocoboy said:

If you are really thinking about any trade, RT should be the target. Milano & Jones are going to be sorely missed, but you mostly have the cats on offense to go toe to toe. BUT you are going to limit your effectiveness if you're playing protection games to cover Brown. Upgrade there and give yourself every chance of making the Kincaid/Knox experiment work.

I have never played football, but it's my understanding that it's tough to plug in a new OL midseason because they have to function as a unit. It takes an offseason to get them working together.

[HoofHearted]

25 minutes ago, Einstein said:

• 1) Dodson played 62% of the snaps. Dorian played 36%. Dodson was by far the higher graded of the two, with an 85.5 grade compared to a 32.7 for Dorian. PFF has Dorian missing 40% of his attempted tackles. They are essentially saying that he was flying to the ball, but not finishing.

 

• 2) Allen had the highest CPAE (Completion Percentage Above Expectation) in the NFL this week at 8%. This means Allen completed 8% more of his passes than he should have. Allen’s adjusted completion % (completions + drops / aimed) was 86%.

 

• 3) I don’t know what we are going to do about Spencer Brown. The Bills are giving him help on more than 50% of his snaps and he is still well below the mean. This chart shows how often NFL tackles are left on an island (no help). Brown is 2nd to last in the entire NFL. The only player needing more help is Jermaine Eluemunor, who Raiders fans universally want released.

 

 

 

 

• 4) With play-action, Allen completed 87.5% of his passes with a 14.9 YPA yesterday. He completed 62.5% of his passes with a 7.5 YPA without play action. To really drive this point home, look at his EPA per play both with play-action and without. He has a 3x larger EPA per play with play-action than without.

 

 

 

• 5) Kingsley Jonathan was the highest rated Bills defensive player yesterday at a 92.1. He had 2 hurries, 1 sack, 2 stops and 1 forced fumble. Epenesa was right behind him at 85.7.

 

 

• 6) James Cook had an 11.3 pass block grade, which is the lowest I can personally recall ever seeing. Damien Harris had an 82.3 pass block grade.

 

 

• 7) DaQuan left the game after the 4th play. Milano left the game after the 11th play. Rousseau never played. Tre White never played. Benford never played. That’s FIVE starters out. Yet the defense still forced 2 turnovers and 5 punts. 

 

 

• 8- Dawkins really struggled yesterday, especially with the other Josh Allen. It was clear from watching the game and PFF saw it too. He had the lowest pass blocking grade of all the linemen. 

 

 

• 9) McDermott mentioned after the game that it’s hard to win when you can’t run. EPA shows that he is correct. Our EPA per dropback was top 10 in the NFL this week. Our running EPA was towards the bottom in the NFL.

 

 

 

 

• 10) Elam gave up 6 receptions for 93 yards and was eventually benched. No other Bills player gave up more than 3 receptions. Dane gave up 3 receptions for 30 yards.

 

 

• 11) Taron Johnson was very vocal after the game about how poor the turf was. Mentioned his feet would get stuck. For those interested you can see his comments here.

 

 

• 12) Spacing has felt off all season long. There are 4 Bills receiving options, all within 10 yards of each other. We are not making them defend every blade of grass. We are making them defend a very small piece of grass. This was a big 3rd down that we didn't convert.

 

 

 

• 13) I have absolutely no idea what we gave Harty a $10M contract for. He played roughly 25% of the snaps this week and is averaging 2.2 receptions per game. His special teams contribution has been 5 returns for 40 yards. I just genuinely don’t understand what the plan is for him.

 

• 14) Last note on Allen. HIs passing chart shows solid numbers to all areas and depths of the field.

 

 

 

 

• 15) Lastly, Ben Johnson is the most innovative, fun, creative play caller I have ever seen. I hope he is hired by an NFC team. This is one of the many plays he calls. It constantly keeps defenses guessing.

 

To your point on #12 - that was a designed play to the back that was suppose to have two blockers upfield for him already. Basically Stef running a shallow with Cook running a follow. It’s setting up essentially the same type of concept Miami gets out of their slot out motion where the #1 seals the edge and Stef wraps around to lead for the back. For whatever reason Allen didn’t like it even though it was there.

 

As an aside PFF grades are fun but I wouldn’t put a ton of stock in them.

[Mango]

Just now, Rubes said:

 

I get the sense that it's the latter. I do believe (perhaps moreso than others) that Dorsey knows what he's doing with play design. The execution is what seems to be getting in the way. Perhaps that's a reflection of how complicated the offensive design is, I don't know. But there are times when some of the newer guys don't seem to know where they're supposed to be.

 

It may also be a reflection of why it took Harty so long to get on the field as anything other than a gadget player.

 

 

I tend to agree with this. One of the traits of the EP is that we sort of reinvent the offense on a weekly basis. I think we need to start leaning into a core offense and adding on as we become more proficient. I truly believe that Allen, Diggs, Davis, Knox/Kincade, and our stable of RB's are more than good enough carry this team. But under both Daboll and now Dorsey we keep trying to reinvent the wheel every week. 

Pound the rock, run play action, spread the ball/field out.  If teams stop us they stop us. I would rather that than to have guys not understanding our ever changing concepts. 

[Warriorspikes51]

If Allen throws a little farther or Diggs manages to come down with that contested catch, I think we win the game 

Also, bad drops by Davis and Knox 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

This is another game that goes into the Daboll/Dorsey pile of why didn't we try to run the ball more? It's a one score game and it's just pass-pass-pass-pass, meanwhile the TOP just got more and more lopsided as the game went on. 

 

At the start of the 4th the Jags had the ball for 29 minutes, and the Bills were at 15 minutes. 

 

We conclude we couldn't run the ball yesterday, but what is Harris and Murray going to do on 6 combined carries?

 

Why the stubborn, insistence on running out of shotgun with Cook on delayed/draw plays that TAKE TOO LONG?