5 Games In - Reality Check

[ngbills]

8 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

I remember people saying the same thing about the schedule last year after the losses to NYJ and Minnesota.  The Bills ended up winning 13 games.  
 

Just like how the Bills suffered some big injuries to key players, it’s guaranteed to happen to other teams as well which will effect the matchups.  So how “tough” the sledding actually is, is TBD.  
 

My point wasn’t about the #1 seed.  Obviously, the bye week is an advantage.  
 

 I comparing the difference between seed #2 through #7.  Homefield is nice but it’s not essential as we learned last January.  

Exactly - we win one of the NYJ or MIN games and we are the 1 seed. That is why every game matters. It hurts losing this game and to Zach Wilson. 

[JohnNord]

2 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Exactly - we win one of the NYJ or MIN games and we are the 1 seed. That is why every game matters. It hurts losing this game and to Zach Wilson. 

Do you want some tissues to cry about it?   Given the way the Bills played against Cincy, I’d be shocked if they didn’t get their asses kicked as the 1 seed.
 

I don’t think the Bills will be in contention for the 1 seed.  I’d rather have them healthy and on a roll going into the playoffs.  Who cares what the seed will be?  

Edited October 9, 2023 by JohnNord

[ngbills]

2 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

Do you want some tissues to cry about it?  

No I’m good. But I can suggest someone to talk to, seems like your a bit sensitive. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

7 hours ago, ngbills said:

We played the Stafford / Kupp Rams. They may not have been Super Bowl level but still were a good team until those guys and others got hurt. Calling them the  raiders/commanders is absurd. 

 

We shall how the rest of the season goes. I am hopeful...I just wish we could still have this two losses in our pockets. Especially with these injuries piling up. 

 

The stafford/Kupp rams were 3-5 to open the season with a notable loss to the cooper rush cowboys.  They were not even mediocre…losing whitworth sunk the oline, losing von sunk the pass rush.  The rams team the bills saw week 1 was below average.

 

calling them the Super Bowl winner is even more absurd than likening them to the raiders/commanders this year who will also be around that 3-5 mark   
 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

11 hours ago, ngbills said:

How are we better? Feels better? Looks better? What have done that is better than last year? 

 

Pass rush seems better.

 

Before Milano went down, the linebacker play was WAAAY better. 

 

Everything else is probably a wash to this point. 

[Dr.Sack]

This a week by week league. The next game is not a given.

8 hours ago, ngbills said:

Exactly - we win one of the NYJ or MIN games and we are the 1 seed. That is why every game matters. It hurts losing this game and to Zach Wilson. 

This has been the point I hammer home, but without White, Jones & Milano I see good reason why a 7-6 finish is more than probable. It would be a miracle to do any better given the injuries to our 3 best on D.  

[John from Riverside]

10 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

At this point, I say 10-7 or 11-6 and the odds are a WC spot. If we play at home I say we win that one and get bounced in the 2nd round again. The harsh reality is this offseason there can't be any more "run it back BS"  We have 2 old and slow safeties  that have to go. As much as I hate to say it, we need to reach an injury settlement with Tre this offseason. ACL then a torn Achilles and with his contract and age... we have to think of the Business component.  We are a ton of the cap so more cuts will be coming. I'm not saying full rebuild, but it's between a re-tool and rebuild and it just happens.

 

We have had a nice multi-year run and it comes time to clean house and bring in new blood and it hurts for a season or 2, but we have Josh so that helps.

For chrissake
 

We just came off of a almost 50 point drubbing of the Dolphins and had won 3 straight

 

We were never going to win every game this year and I have no problem with this team going against the top teams in the league who frankly are not looking that great themselves it’s not like the Chiefs are blowing teams out

 

Give me a team that is going strong into the playoffs over one that gets strong early and then fizzles

[juno999]

18 hours ago, Success said:

We're still a better team than last year, even w/ the injuries.

 

We have a nice stretch coming up where we can hopefully build a bit of a cushion to absorb some losses when the schedule gets tough.  I think 12-5 is pretty realistic for a final record.  11-6 wouldn't shock me, and 13-4 is probably the ceiling.

 

I think it's very possible that the last game w/ the Phins will decide the division. And that's so far away, who knows what both teams will look like at that point.  But if we can stay relatively healthy from here on out (and by that, I mean just stay within the league average in terms of players missing time), I like our chances for the division.  Outside chance for a 1 seed, and a good chance to be one of the top 3 seeds.

 

Please pass the pipe

[Bob Jones]

18 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

The Bills were 7-6 at one point in 2021. They turned it on in the playoffs and the end of the regular season. I am not writing this team off as just a wildcard or not that good. Looking at the schedule I think the Bills just have to take care of business against the teams they are "supposed" to beat and then go about .500 in the rest of the games to get to 12 wins....

Like they did vs the Jets (especially after Rodgers was knocked out, it should have been easy) and vs the Jags?

 

These are the Buffalo Bills were talking about here....😉

[BeavercreekBillsFan]

20 hours ago, Success said:

 

We're better in pretty much every aspect of the game. DVOA was through the roof until yesterday.  Our defense is MUCH better - the line is one of the best in the league.  With McD calling plays, we've been more aggressive, and have a pass rush that is on par w/ basically any other team.  We'll still be a top 5 defense for this season.

 

We have a much better running game this year - and 3 backs who all bring something to the table.  Kincaid will continue to get better. Sherfield and Harty are both better than the guys they replaced.  Davis has been much improved this season. And the O-line is significantly better in both pass protection & run blocking.

 

I think that about covers it.

 

EDIT: and JA is healthy now, too.

 

 

Can people PLEASE stop looking at DVOA and use your eyes? Yes our RBs are in theory better but Dorsey won’t stop calling shotgun draws to Cook to put us behind the chains. Sherfield and Harty aren’t going to give us anything significant. Davis can only run 1 route. And Dorsey won’t use Kincaid. Agree with you our d line looks better but now Daequan is done for the year and Bernard isn’t going to be kept clean. No white and no Milano either. Poyer looks 50 years old. Our DVOA is always going to look good because we win big against ***** teams and ***** QBs. But unless you’re going to ignore the harsh reality of our injuries, the ineptness of the coaching staff, and the history of how poorly we play against good QBs, you can’t possible have a positive outlook that we are in a good spot right now.

20 hours ago, 90sBills said:

Bills have a great chance to win the next 3 games to improve to 6-2. Everyone will forget this feeling and the fact that this team struggles in tight games with tough opponents. Then the next tough opponent, Cincy, will bring all the negative feelings back. Just like clockwork. Book it. 

This. People will buy into this team way more than they should after they win the next few games. Cinci is going to run us off the field again in a few weeks and then people will remember that we just don’t have the talent at the other positions besides josh and Diggs to win against good teams. 

[Bob in STL]

My 5 game summary. 
 

Defense has been very good, bolstered by the play of Bernard, Milano and a strong DL rotation.  Injuries are a problem. Depth at CB and LB were an issue to start the season and the limited depth we had will be tested going forward.  Lots of key players are now out, just like last season.  

The Offense is inconsistent and so far not able to score enough versus better defenses.   Allen’s weapons are Diggs and a bunch of average receivers and backs.  Dorsey is not able to really utilize Knox/Kincaid so far.  Allen has been sometimes good, sometimes great, and sometimes unable to find receivers and make plays.  As always, he is the key.  A positive has been the play of the OL. 
 

Coaching -  Bills were not properly prepared to play in both of their losses. The London game had a ponderously poor plan to arrive Friday morning and play Sunday, overthinking the obvious once again. 
 

Tough schedule ahead. Division title possible but lots of work to do.  
 

The team is still good enough to win it all if they can stay healthy and peak at playoff time. 

[UKBillFan]

I have no faith in the Bills at the moment, and won’t until they beat a decent team. Josh’s performance against the Jets was an embarrassment and the offense (Josh and maybe Diggs aside) was horrible versus rage Jags. How can they be trusted to turn up when they’ve proven time and again that the don’t?
 

Every side loses, every side puts in lesser performances, but the best get over the line when not putting in their strongest performance. The Bills rarely do that.

[ngbills]

11 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

The stafford/Kupp rams were 3-5 to open the season with a notable loss to the cooper rush cowboys.  They were not even mediocre…losing whitworth sunk the oline, losing von sunk the pass rush.  The rams team the bills saw week 1 was below average.

 

calling them the Super Bowl winner is even more absurd than likening them to the raiders/commanders this year who will also be around that 3-5 mark   
 

They were also 2-1 winning two after the Bills loss. Even at the 3-5 record the losses were to Bills, 49ers X 2, Cowboys, Bucs - all playoff teams. 

[boco357]

I bet the Bills would love to have the bye this week instead of December now.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

You cannot, ever, compare a team to a year prior and expect to get any kind of insight for how the current team is performing and how the season will map out. There are millions of variables, these teams don’t have much in common with each other.

Folks also need to finally realize their opinion doesn’t equal reality. 

[Success]

2 hours ago, BeavercreekBillsFan said:

Can people PLEASE stop looking at DVOA and use your eyes? Yes our RBs are in theory better but Dorsey won’t stop calling shotgun draws to Cook to put us behind the chains. Sherfield and Harty aren’t going to give us anything significant. Davis can only run 1 route. And Dorsey won’t use Kincaid. Agree with you our d line looks better but now Daequan is done for the year and Bernard isn’t going to be kept clean. No white and no Milano either. Poyer looks 50 years old. Our DVOA is always going to look good because we win big against ***** teams and ***** QBs. But unless you’re going to ignore the harsh reality of our injuries, the ineptness of the coaching staff, and the history of how poorly we play against good QBs, you can’t possible have a positive outlook that we are in a good spot right now.

 

 

On Saturday, most around the country had us as one of the top 2 teams in the country, after taking a team that was everyone's favorite over the 1st month to school.

 

The last time we lost White, we were 13 seconds away from making a SB (and yes, we would have beaten Cincy that year).

 

So now we've lost Milano too. That's a big loss - bigger than White, because we have better depth at CB than we do at LB.  But we still have good LB's.  Give Williams some time filling in, and there is a good chance he'll be very solid in that role. He won't be the playmaker that Milano is - but if he can hold it down, we have plenty of other playmakers on D.  I see people saying that our D will drop out of the top 10 now. I'll take that bet. I think we'll be closer to the 5 spot than the 15 spot at the end of the season.

 

Championship teams lose key players.  There are countless examples, in every sport.  I remember when the G-Men lost Shockey, everyone wrote them off (and they lost a few key guys that season).  

 

We ARE in a good spot right now - because we have one of the best QB's in the game, a top tier D-line, and a good set of WR's, TE's and RB's to make the offense hum.  If fans can't appreciate the spot we're in and the opportunity we STILL have this season, I can't do much for them.

 

[BeavercreekBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Success said:

 

On Saturday, most around the country had us as one of the top 2 teams in the country, after taking a team that was everyone's favorite over the 1st month to school.

 

The last time we lost White, we were 13 seconds away from making a SB (and yes, we would have beaten Cincy that year).

 

So now we've lost Milano too. That's a big loss - bigger than White, because we have better depth at CB than we do at LB.  But we still have good LB's.  Give Williams some time filling in, and there is a good chance he'll be very solid in that role. He won't be the playmaker that Milano is - but if he can hold it down, we have plenty of other playmakers on D.  I see people saying that our D will drop out of the top 10 now. I'll take that bet. I think we'll be closer to the 5 spot than the 15 spot at the end of the season.

 

Championship teams lose key players.  There are countless examples, in every sport.  I remember when the G-Men lost Shockey, everyone wrote them off (and they lost a few key guys that season).  

 

We ARE in a good spot right now - because we have one of the best QB's in the game, a top tier D-line, and a good set of WR's, TE's and RB's to make the offense hum.  If fans can't appreciate the spot we're in and the opportunity we STILL have this season, I can't do much for them.

 

Josh and Diggs are good enough to get us 10 or 11 wins by themselves despite the coaching and rest of the roster. I’m done being satisfied by that. You only have a short window with elite QBs. You can’t waste josh on McDermott, Dorsey, and guys like Gabe Davis as his 2nd weapon. And while I loved whopping the dolphins, that didn’t change my thoughts on McDermott, etc. 

[Billsfan1972]

Anyone not see this is a repeat of 2021 again?  I know only 5 games in, but eerily similar as of now.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/schedule/_/name/buf/season/2021

[Radar]

Thought before season started it would be close in our division. I am thinking unless Miami craps the bed or unforseen injuries hit namely at quarterback they win the division. But as they say anything can happen. I do like our defense better and credit McDermott for that. Was never high on our secondary and even less so now with injuries. Milano would be huge loss. Jets loss and Jacksonville loss certainly doesn't help.

[colin]

we lost 3 total games in the regs in 2022 by a total of 8 points.

 

in 2021 we lost to the jags when the stank and at one point were 7-6

 

in 2022 we went into the playoffs with no confidence and kinda stole games late vs new england and hosting miami w a guy from the stands at qb.

 

in 2021 we were only consecutive disastrous blunders from beating kc in kc and hosting an afc chip game with insane momentum.

 

i feel pretty bad about this season right now, but there is a whole lot of football to be played.

 

one thing, we can block and when we do it right, we can run.  that's all new.