5 Games In - Reality Check

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 hours ago, ngbills said:

It has been an interesting season that is for sure. 

 

Record

3-2 - Worse start since 2018. 

All 5 games the Bills were favored by decent margins (MIA only one less than 5, not including NYJ bc if Rodgers was out that 3-pt spread would have been 5+).

2 of our 3 wins are vs sub 500 teams that will not be sniffing the playoffs. Last year we destroyed the super bowl champ Rams and 2 prior playoff teams in TEN and PIT and a close one vs another playoff team in BAL. The one loss was the extreme heat game in MIA.

 

Stats

We have a huge 79 pt scoring differential. Scoring 159 and only giving up 80. But...last year we were at 152 scored and only 61 given up, so a better differential of 91. This narrative about this years record breaking pace is actually not as impressive if you choose to remember last year.

 

On O last year we had 4 games with over 400 yds, basically 2 with 500 yds and only 1 with 300. This year we have only hit 400 twice and not sniffed 500. 

On D last year we held 4 teams under 300 yds (1, almost 2 under 200 yds). No one gut 400 on us. This year we have only held 3 and 2 had essentially 400. 

 

Injuries

We have lost White and likely Milano. Last year we had no White for a long time, Hyde went out week 2, Miller was out 6 games, Poyer was out 4 games, Oliver, Edmunds, Morse all missed 3 games, not to mention Allen and Davis played banged up. 

 

Verdict

So are we in better shape compared to last year? The narrative has been how much improved we are on paper. We have also heard how great the numbers have been despite the two losses. But as shown above last year was actually more impressive after 5 games. 

 

The remaining schedule is tough, this was supposed to be our easy stretch. Quickly coming down the pike we have @CIN, @KC, @PHI, @MIA, @LAC, home v DAL. That is 6 very tough games. If we can go 3-3 in those games and win the rest we are supposed to win that puts us at 12-5. This will likely be tight with MIA. Any slips and we are fighting for a wild card. 

 

We did not destroy the ‘Super Bowl champ’ rams last year…we destroyed a team that was at the same level as our raiders/commanders wins this year.  The Super Bowl champ rams were disbanded in the offseason immediately following the superbowl.

 

we get a 1.5 game swing on Miami if we beat them in the final week of the season and they’ve had a few extremely easy opponents also…arguably the two worst teams in the league(Denver,NYG) and probably 3 of the bottom 5 (Denver,NYG,NE). Their only quality win was just sneaking past LAC. Miami also has a well established track record of losing to teams that end up appearing in the playoffs (2-6 total, 2-4 with tua). Those two wins were against injury ravaged baltimore and buffalo teams and they just squeaked by. 

Edited October 9, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Warriorspikes51]

Just now, Success said:

 

When Benford gets back, our CB group is really good.  The only thing we're missing is depth.  Elam can alleviate some concern there if he can play better than yesterday (and he did last year), but I could see maybe a move to bolster the depth more. We don't need to trade for a starter.

 

I'd say it's average....

[Success]

Just now, Warriorspikes51 said:

I'd say it's average....

 

That's fair.  But I'd still say we don't need to trade for a star or a starter.  Losing Tre hurts, but we always seem to be okay in that position unit, and with how good the D-line is, an average CB group is okay.

 

[Aussie Joe]

11 minutes ago, Success said:

 

When Benford gets back, our CB group is really good.  The only thing we're missing is depth.  Elam can alleviate some concern there if he can play better than yesterday (and he did last year), but I could see maybe a move to bolster the depth more. We don't need to trade for a starter.

 

 I think a McD coached secondary can get by when Benford plus say another depth  piece is back ..

 

Elam concerns me though… 

 

If they want to trade that first next year ( they won’t in my opinion) look beyond a CB..

 

 

Edited October 9, 2023 by Aussie Joe

[AuntieEm]

2 hours ago, 90sBills said:

Bills have a great chance to win the next 3 games to improve to 6-2. Everyone will forget this feeling and the fact that this team struggles in tight games with tough opponents. Then the next tough opponent, Cincy, will bring all the negative feelings back. Just like clockwork. Book it. 

 Yet cincy might be a tire fire by the time we play them.  Just because they started slow finished strong doesn't mean they will be a strong finish but rather just a sad finish for the bengals.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

Kansas City literally just beat Jacksonville in Jacksonville three weeks ago.  Teams travel.  That's part of the game.  Maybe the Bills mishandled the travel schedule.  If so, that's their own fault.  They could have traveled to London 5 days prior to the game.  (It wouldn't have mattered.)

Are you saying flying to jax is the same thing as flying to london?  🤣 

 

ettiene said it himself….it was a huge advantage for them to be there for awhile to adjust.  But you can pretend that what KC did was the same thing.

[Goin Breakdown]

Dorsey is still a concern with or without injuries. Our offense has no identity. It's hot or cold. What seems to work should never be counted on with him. Players are hyped up and not used. We have WRs clumped up and at time almost bumping into each other. Brown needs help on most plays it seems. Im sorry, if you need help then why the heck are you are starter?  Put someone else in there until brown can play. Who? Anyone. 

[ngbills]

36 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

We did not destroy the ‘Super Bowl champ’ rams last year…we destroyed a team that was at the same level as our raiders/commanders wins this year.  The Super Bowl champ rams were disbanded in the offseason immediately following the superbowl.

 

we get a 1.5 game swing on Miami if we beat them in the final week of the season and they’ve had a few extremely easy opponents also…arguably the two worst teams in the league(Denver,NYG).  Miami also has a well established track record of losing to teams that end up appearing in the playoffs (2-6 total, 2-4 with tua). Those two wins were against injury ravaged baltimore and buffalo teams and they just squeaked by. 

We played the Stafford / Kupp Rams. They may not have been Super Bowl level but still were a good team until those guys and others got hurt. Calling them the  raiders/commanders is absurd. 

 

We shall how the rest of the season goes. I am hopeful...I just wish we could still have this two losses in our pockets. Especially with these injuries piling up. 

 

[2003Contenders]

3 hours ago, zow2 said:

The reality check for me is that the Buffalo Bills are not in the same class as:  San Fran, KC and Philly.  I thought they were after the Miami game but they're just not.  The Bills lose too many close games...the running game disappears, coaching gets disjointed and too many weird things happen including serious injuries.

 

I'd put the Bills in there with Dallas, Miami, Cinci, Detroit, Jags.  The problem is Burrow is getting healthy and the Bengals could get on a serious roll and Miami can outscore anyone on a given Sunday plus their RB's are insane. Meanwhile Buffalo is trending a little downwards from major defensive injuries.  It's reality.

I agree -- but that is as of right now, October 2023. Much can happen between now and January of 2024, which is when teams need to peak for the playoffs.

 

Remember, the best Bills playoff team of recent years (2021) was the one that had the worst regular season record -- 13 seconds aside, that team probably would have won the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, last year we lost only 3 regular season games (literally half as many as the year before) by a combined 8 points -- but the team had peaked in the early part of the season and was on fumes come playoff time.

 

[gonzo1105]

3 hours ago, NewEra said:

So the Bucs, fins, Seahawks, are better than the bills?  The bills are equal to the colts, Steelers, saints and falcons?  
 

I agree margin of victory is overrated.  I disagree that you are what your record says you are.  Would’ve loved to see KC play a home game Vs jax in london after jax had been there for 11 days…. which Jax players openly admitted gave them a huge advantage.  Sometimes you aren’t what your record says you are. 

 

As of right now Yes because wins and losses matter man. Those teams have better records because while the Bills when they put it together can be unbeatable, they have too many games of inconsistency. 
 

The Bledsoe Bills were the best team to not make the playoffs. Am I supposed to give them a pat on the back for that? Am I supposed to in 10 more years when the Bills win 10-12 games a year but never win a SB am I supposed to give them a standing ovation as one of the greatest 15 year runs to never hoist a Lombardi to go with our 4 in a row losses? 
 

Im tired of watching the lovable small city good football team who can’t get over the hump ever. Every year there are excuses 

[mjt328]

Losses like yesterday happen to every team.  

 

The real problem long-term is the injuries.  We can hide 1-2 starters out for a couple weeks.  Having 3 gone for the season already is really bad news.  Once opponents start figuring out the weaker spots on our defense, they will attack those areas relentlessly.

 

On offense, I just can't figure out what Ken Dorsey is doing.  He doesn't focus on the strengths of his players.  He doesn't focus on attacking the weak points of his opponents.  He can't seem to adjust in-game, and will spend multiple drives running head-first into a brick wall, hoping for different results.

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

As of right now Yes because wins and losses matter man. Those teams have better records because while the Bills when they put it together can be unbeatable, they have too many games of inconsistency. 
 

The Bledsoe Bills were the best team to not make the playoffs. Am I supposed to give them a pat on the back for that? Am I supposed to in 10 more years when the Bills win 10-12 games a year but never win a SB am I supposed to give them a standing ovation as one of the greatest 15 year runs to never hoist a Lombardi to go with our 4 in a row losses? 
 

Im tired of watching the lovable small city good football team who can’t get over the hump ever. Every year there are excuses 

I don’t know what you’re talking about here man…..

 

I don’t see how what I said and what you said are related

 

 

[DuckyBoys]

Dorsey's offense doesnt allow much room for error  Wish we had installed a more creative offense  Get tired of how hard the Bills work to move the ball.  You see teams be able to run the ball consistently and wide open targets for their qb   The scheme seems very vanilla yet again  Its week to week so we probably look like world beaters this week 

[90sBills]

8 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

As of right now Yes because wins and losses matter man. Those teams have better records because while the Bills when they put it together can be unbeatable, they have too many games of inconsistency. 
 

The Bledsoe Bills were the best team to not make the playoffs. Am I supposed to give them a pat on the back for that? Am I supposed to in 10 more years when the Bills win 10-12 games a year but never win a SB am I supposed to give them a standing ovation as one of the greatest 15 year runs to never hoist a Lombardi to go with our 4 in a row losses? 
 

Im tired of watching the lovable small city good football team who can’t get over the hump ever. Every year there are excuses 

What I find frustrating with the Bills is their inability to keep things even keeled. After focusing on a big game like Miami they follow up with a deflated effort against a team they should beat.

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, ngbills said:

It has been an interesting season that is for sure. 

 

Record

3-2 - Worse start since 2018. 

All 5 games the Bills were favored by decent margins (MIA only one less than 5, not including NYJ bc if Rodgers was out that 3-pt spread would have been 5+).

2 of our 3 wins are vs sub 500 teams that will not be sniffing the playoffs. Last year we destroyed the super bowl champ Rams and 2 prior playoff teams in TEN and PIT and a close one vs another playoff team in BAL. The one loss was the extreme heat game in MIA.

 

Stats

We have a huge 79 pt scoring differential. Scoring 159 and only giving up 80. But...last year we were at 152 scored and only 61 given up, so a better differential of 91. This narrative about this years record breaking pace is actually not as impressive if you choose to remember last year.

 

On O last year we had 4 games with over 400 yds, basically 2 with 500 yds and only 1 with 300. This year we have only hit 400 twice and not sniffed 500. 

On D last year we held 4 teams under 300 yds (1, almost 2 under 200 yds). No one gut 400 on us. This year we have only held 3 and 2 had essentially 400. 

 

Injuries

We have lost White and likely Milano. Last year we had no White for a long time, Hyde went out week 2, Miller was out 6 games, Poyer was out 4 games, Oliver, Edmunds, Morse all missed 3 games, not to mention Allen and Davis played banged up. 

 

Verdict

So are we in better shape compared to last year? The narrative has been how much improved we are on paper. We have also heard how great the numbers have been despite the two losses. But as shown above last year was actually more impressive after 5 games. 

 

The remaining schedule is tough, this was supposed to be our easy stretch. Quickly coming down the pike we have @CIN, @KC, @PHI, @MIA, @LAC, home v DAL. That is 6 very tough games. If we can go 3-3 in those games and win the rest we are supposed to win that puts us at 12-5. This will likely be tight with MIA. Any slips and we are fighting for a wild card. 

 

 

Wow, that's interesting!  I hadn't realized that this was our worst start since 2018.  

 

Here's one thing that I haven't seen anyone mention.  

 

In our three victories, we've had a +2, +3, and +4 edge in Turnovers.  

 

When you rely on TOs to win games it's not sustainable and is not a great strategy.  

 

 

3 hours ago, Negan said:

This team will probably be a wild card team at best.  Don't see the Dolphins losing too many games. 

 

That's OK if our offense gets and stays hot for four consecutive playoff games.  

 

In fact, I think I'd rather try that than going 14-3 and for whatever reasons seeing us slink in the playoffs, which has been the pattern.  

 

The worry should be that coaching is the primary issue as many of us see that it is.  If that's true, good luck to us.  

 

 

3 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

 

we need a new HC.  McD is NOT up to the task.  Every season it's something, but the one constant is, as you pointed out, the disjointed nature of it all.  

 

This season is a referendum on that very thing.  

 

Let's yield the benefit of the doubt until it's played out.  ... not that we have a choice.  ... and not that we have a choice after that either.  LOL  

 

I will say, the teflon nature for McD to be able to insulate himself from #Coachingthingz is remarkable.  How far and long does "culture" take us, ... 7 seasons in.  

 

 

[JohnNord]

4 hours ago, ngbills said:

It has been an interesting season that is for sure. 

 

Record

3-2 - Worse start since 2018. 

All 5 games the Bills were favored by decent margins (MIA only one less than 5, not including NYJ bc if Rodgers was out that 3-pt spread would have been 5+).

2 of our 3 wins are vs sub 500 teams that will not be sniffing the playoffs. Last year we destroyed the super bowl champ Rams and 2 prior playoff teams in TEN and PIT and a close one vs another playoff team in BAL. The one loss was the extreme heat game in MIA.

 

Stats

We have a huge 79 pt scoring differential. Scoring 159 and only giving up 80. But...last year we were at 152 scored and only 61 given up, so a better differential of 91. This narrative about this years record breaking pace is actually not as impressive if you choose to remember last year.

 

On O last year we had 4 games with over 400 yds, basically 2 with 500 yds and only 1 with 300. This year we have only hit 400 twice and not sniffed 500. 

On D last year we held 4 teams under 300 yds (1, almost 2 under 200 yds). No one gut 400 on us. This year we have only held 3 and 2 had essentially 400. 

 

Injuries

We have lost White and likely Milano. Last year we had no White for a long time, Hyde went out week 2, Miller was out 6 games, Poyer was out 4 games, Oliver, Edmunds, Morse all missed 3 games, not to mention Allen and Davis played banged up. 

 

Verdict

So are we in better shape compared to last year? The narrative has been how much improved we are on paper. We have also heard how great the numbers have been despite the two losses. But as shown above last year was actually more impressive after 5 games. 

 

The remaining schedule is tough, this was supposed to be our easy stretch. Quickly coming down the pike we have @CIN, @KC, @PHI, @MIA, @LAC, home v DAL. That is 6 very tough games. If we can go 3-3 in those games and win the rest we are supposed to win that puts us at 12-5. This will likely be tight with MIA. Any slips and we are fighting for a wild card. 

 

“worst record since 2018.” 🤣

 

Doom and gloom post.
 

Does it really matter if the Bills are a division winner or a wildcard?  Is homefield really THAT big of an advantage?  I think we learned the answer to that question last January. 

[ngbills]

2 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

“worst record since 2018.” 🤣

 

Doom and gloom post.
 

Does it really matter if the Bills are a division winner or a wildcard?  Is homefield really THAT big of an advantage?  I think we learned the answer to that question last January. 

No not doom and gloom. Just that we have tough sledding and this year is looking tougher than last year when all we have heard is how much better this team is.

 

And yes its a huge advantage getting the #1 seed. You skip a week and are a couple games from the SB. That is massive. 

[BillMafia716ix]

Last season doesn’t mean *****. It’s a new year. New team. So you can’t compare. It’s still a long way to go…the defense still held tough despite the injuries and the offense just had a bad day it happens. 

[JohnNord]

37 minutes ago, ngbills said:

No not doom and gloom. Just that we have tough sledding and this year is looking tougher than last year when all we have heard is how much better this team is.

 

And yes it’s a huge advantage getting the #1 seed. You skip a week and are a couple games from the SB. That is massive. 

I remember people saying the same thing about the schedule last year after the losses to NYJ and Minnesota.  The Bills ended up winning 13 games.  
 

Just like how the Bills suffered some big injuries to key players, it’s guaranteed to happen to other teams as well which will effect the matchups.  So how “tough” the sledding actually is, is TBD.  
 

My point wasn’t about the #1 seed.  Obviously, the bye week is an advantage.  
 

 I comparing the difference between seed #2 through #7.  Homefield is nice but it’s not essential as we learned last January.  

[SoonerBillsFan]

At this point, I say 10-7 or 11-6 and the odds are a WC spot. If we play at home I say we win that one and get bounced in the 2nd round again. The harsh reality is this offseason there can't be any more "run it back BS"  We have 2 old and slow safeties  that have to go. As much as I hate to say it, we need to reach an injury settlement with Tre this offseason. ACL then a torn Achilles and with his contract and age... we have to think of the Business component.  We are a ton of the cap so more cuts will be coming. I'm not saying full rebuild, but it's between a re-tool and rebuild and it just happens.

 

We have had a nice multi-year run and it comes time to clean house and bring in new blood and it hurts for a season or 2, but we have Josh so that helps.