5 Games In - Reality Check

[RyanC883]

8 minutes ago, zow2 said:

The reality check for me is that the Buffalo Bills are not in the same class as:  San Fran, KC and Philly.  I thought they were after the Miami game but they're just not.  The Bills lose too many close games...the running game disappears, coaching gets disjointed and too many weird things happen including serious injuries.

 

I'd put the Bills in there with Dallas, Miami, Cinci, Detroit, Jags.  The problem is Burrow is getting healthy and the Bengals could get on a serious roll and Miami can outscore anyone on a given Sunday plus their RB's are insane. Meanwhile Buffalo is trending a little downwards from major defensive injuries.  It's reality.

 

we need a new HC.  McD is NOT up to the task.  Every season it's something, but the one constant is, as you pointed out, the disjointed nature of it all.  

[major]

31 minutes ago, Success said:

We're still a better team than last year, even w/ the injuries.

 

We have a nice stretch coming up where we can hopefully build a bit of a cushion to absorb some losses when the schedule gets tough.  I think 12-5 is pretty realistic for a final record.  11-6 wouldn't shock me, and 13-4 is probably the ceiling.

 

I think it's very possible that the last game w/ the Phins will decide the division. And that's so far away, who knows what both teams will look like at that point.  But if we can stay relatively healthy from here on out (and by that, I mean just stay within the league average in terms of players missing time), I like our chances for the division.  Outside chance for a 1 seed, and a good chance to be one of the top 3 seeds.

 

I had us 11-6 going into season. We are right on target and will hit our stride in playoffs 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Someone remind me what our record was in '21 before we went on to give KC all they could handle in the playoffs

 

[Boatdrinks]

14 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

And if we’re say the 6 seed - that’s likely the Jags Chiefs or Dolphins in Round 1.  
 

The AFC North winner has 4 seed written all over them.   

Long way off , but you don’t want to be 6 seed if it’s a WC berth. See what happens 

[BuffaloBillyG]

Last seasons Super Bowl Champions were 3-2 after 5 weeks. Lots of ball left to play. Coming up with conclusions after week 5 is an exercise in failure.

[Roundybout]

14 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

we need a new HC.  McD is NOT up to the task.  Every season it's something, but the one constant is, as you pointed out, the disjointed nature of it all.  

 

McD will go when the current core is totally gone. Not a minute sooner. 

[RyanC883]

2 minutes ago, Roundybout said:

 

McD will go when the current core is totally gone. Not a minute sooner. 

 

and will then leave with 0 SB trophies.  Hope I'm wrong, but he is a subpar HC.  

[Success]

Just now, RyanC883 said:

 

and will then leave with 0 SB trophies.  Hope I'm wrong, but he is a subpar HC.  

 

Honestly, there aren't that many elite coaches out there.  Maybe 3?  McD is in tier-2, and that's good enough to get us a title.  

 

A team could spend decades looking for an elite coach.  

[RyanC883]

Just now, Success said:

 

Honestly, there aren't that many elite coaches out there.  Maybe 3?  McD is in tier-2, and that's good enough to get us a title.  

 

A team could spend decades looking for an elite coach.  

 

this might be correct.  But then we need to hide his decencies by getting a legit OC in here, and by better matching player acquisition to their eventual use (thinking Elam pick and Harty FA acquisition here).  

 

 

[Franco_92]

That was not our easy stretch lol, our next two games are versus the Giants and the Patriots. 

 

Tampa after that, and a mediocre Cinci, and then the Broncos and Rodgers-less Jets. Yes, I know we lost to them once in OT in their building. It doesn't really get easier than that for any six game stretch any NFL team can face. Bills need at least 5 of those and they will get them

14 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Someone remind me what our record was in '21 before we went on to give KC all they could handle in the playoffs

 

That team was 4-2, 5-3, 6-4, and 7-6 at various points! 

If we can get our offense humming in late December and don't have any more season-ending injuries (hopefully a reasonable proposition) I am as excited about this team as ever

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, arcane said:

That team was 4-2, 5-3, 6-4, and 7-6 at various points! 

If we can get our offense humming in late December and don't have any more season-ending injuries (hopefully a reasonable proposition) I am as excited about this team as ever

Exactamente

 

And the complaining was fierce on TSW

 

[Boatdrinks]

18 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Someone remind me what our record was in '21 before we went on to give KC all they could handle in the playoffs

 

They were 4-2 to start. Bills could be 4-2 after Sunday nights game. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said:

They were 4-2 to start. Bills could be 4-2 after Sunday nights game. 

 

Bingo!

 

[The Red King]

I think losing Milano after Tre was backbreaking for our D, which hurts.

 

Allen did not play hero-ball yesterday, even when I'm sure he was sorely tempted.  Let's not overlook that.

 

Honestly, my only concerns is Davis is a WR3, not a WR2.  They need to add one.

 

The biggest concern, honestly, is Dorsey.  He's just not looking up to task.  When his plan works, it works, but he is strugging at making adjustments.  He is also trying to force players into his scheme instead of molding his scheme for his players.

 

I think Dorsey is holding a potentially elite offense down, and injuries may well do in our defense.  Which is a shame because I believe we're close.

[Unforgiven]

They can beat the 16 or so mediocre teams, and lose to the good ones.

This team has peaked and needs a soft rebuild. they will be bounced as a wild card

at best this season.

[CincyBillsFan]

47 minutes ago, ngbills said:

It has been an interesting season that is for sure. 

 

Record

3-2 - Worse start since 2018. 

All 5 games the Bills were favored by decent margins (MIA only one less than 5, not including NYJ bc if Rodgers was out that 3-pt spread would have been 5+).

2 of our 3 wins are vs sub 500 teams that will not be sniffing the playoffs. Last year we destroyed the super bowl champ Rams and 2 prior playoff teams in TEN and PIT and a close one vs another playoff team in BAL. The one loss was the extreme heat game in MIA.

 

Stats

We have a huge 79 pt scoring differential. Scoring 159 and only giving up 80. But...last year we were at 152 scored and only 61 given up, so a better differential of 91. This narrative about this years record breaking pace is actually not as impressive if you choose to remember last year.

 

On O last year we had 4 games with over 400 yds, basically 2 with 500 yds and only 1 with 300. This year we have only hit 400 twice and not sniffed 500. 

On D last year we held 4 teams under 300 yds (1, almost 2 under 200 yds). No one gut 400 on us. This year we have only held 3 and 2 had essentially 400. 

 

Injuries

We have lost White and likely Milano. Last year we had no White for a long time, Hyde went out week 2, Miller was out 6 games, Poyer was out 4 games, Oliver, Edmunds, Morse all missed 3 games, not to mention Allen and Davis played banged up. 

 

Verdict

So are we in better shape compared to last year? The narrative has been how much improved we are on paper. We have also heard how great the numbers have been despite the two losses. But as shown above last year was actually more impressive after 5 games. 

 

The remaining schedule is tough, this was supposed to be our easy stretch. Quickly coming down the pike we have @CIN, @KC, @PHI, @MIA, @LAC, home v DAL. That is 6 very tough games. If we can go 3-3 in those games and win the rest we are supposed to win that puts us at 12-5. This will likely be tight with MIA. Any slips and we are fighting for a wild card. 

 

I disagree with your basic assertion that after only 5 games you can make the conclusions you're making:

 

*  Your 1st point about the Bills having their worst 5 game record since 2018 is deeply misleading and implies that we have a problem here.  But to suggest that "3 - 2" is meaningfully worse then "4 - 1" is disingenuous. 

 

*  And what do you think your comparison will look like after next weeks game?  In both 2020 & 2021 we were 4 - 2 after 6 games. Are you thinking we will lose to the Giants on Sunday night keeping us from being 4 - 2?

 

*  Sure at this point last season our big wins over the Rams & Titans looked impressive. But both wins looked a hell of a lot less impressive at the end of the season.

 

The rest of your argument is beneath even the minimum standards of a message board.  The one thing any football fan knows is that if transitive properties don't apply to football games they sure as hell don't apply to comparisons across multiple seasons.

 

 

 

 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Allen lost game 1

WRs and injuries cost us game 5

 

Bills can play with anyone and the AFC is not nearly as good as it was supposed to be.

 

If offense can stay healthy they can make a SuperBowl run with Allen.

 

After years of beating up McDermott the biggest liability on this team may be Dorsey. 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

26 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Last seasons Super Bowl Champions were 3-2 after 5 weeks. Lots of ball left to play. Coming up with conclusions after week 5 is an exercise in failure.

As were last season's AFC conference championship runner ups.

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

I really hate Jacksonville.  Nevermind my icon it has nothing to do with that stupid team

[dpberr]

Similar seasons:

 

Negative:

 

Cocaine Josh can still make surprise appearances.  

The Bills still don't know how to use running backs.  

Make the game harder by using the TE position largely for blocking.

The offensive game plan remains one dimensonal - it is still the Stefon Diggs show, and when that gets shut down by any team with a decent CB1, the Bills have nothing.  

 

Positives:

The defense is nastier and consistent.  It just wore out yesterday. 

The young players who get consistent game time are really, really good.