5 Games In - Reality Check

[billsfan89]

The Bills were 7-6 at one point in 2021. They turned it on in the playoffs and the end of the regular season. I am not writing this team off as just a wildcard or not that good. Looking at the schedule I think the Bills just have to take care of business against the teams they are "supposed" to beat and then go about .500 in the rest of the games to get to 12 wins with a margin of error if they drop one "easier" game that still puts them at 11 wins. That should keep them in the conversation for the division and at least get them a wildcard.

 

They should be able to fatten up against the Giants and Pats and get to 5-2. They then can split the Bucs/Bengals games and head in at 6-3. Then they should be able to fatten up against the Broncos and Jets to get back to 8-3. Then they should be able to split a tough pair of games against Philly and KC and go to 9-4. Bills should at worst split the final 4 games against the Cowboys, Chargers, Pats, and Fins and get to 2-2 although winning 3 out of 4 is a possibility. 

 

That gets you to 11-6 or 12-5. I think the key will be winning the immensely winnable games (Pats twice, Jets at home, Broncos and Giants) get those 5 wins and you get to an 8 win total. Then you look at the Bucs, Bengals, Chargers, Eagles, Chiefs, and Fins as your more difficult 6 games. Take care of the Bucs and Chargers in that stretch and you get to 10 wins, just win one other of those 4 games and you get to 11 wins. Take a split of those games and you get to 12 wins. 

 

Getting far ahead of myself. Just have to get right against the Giants and get to 4-2. Nothing else matters. 

[Warriorspikes51]

Losing Milano and DaQuan hurts much more than the loss.

 

Our Defense is likely 10-15 range at best now 

 

Also can WE PLEASE THROW TO KINCAID MORE THAN 5 YARDS DOWN THE FIELD 

[CincyBillsFan]

50 minutes ago, zow2 said:

The reality check for me is that the Buffalo Bills are not in the same class as:  San Fran, KC and Philly.  I thought they were after the Miami game but they're just not.  The Bills lose too many close games...the running game disappears, coaching gets disjointed and too many weird things happen including serious injuries.

 

I'd put the Bills in there with Dallas, Miami, Cinci, Detroit, Jags.  The problem is Burrow is getting healthy and the Bengals could get on a serious roll and Miami can outscore anyone on a given Sunday plus their RB's are insane. Meanwhile Buffalo is trending a little downwards from major defensive injuries.  It's reality.

We are definitely in the class of KC & the Eagles.  If we played them this Sunday they would be close games that could go either way. 

 

I agree that TODAY on October 9 we are not in the same class as SF.  No one in the NFL is.  But that is also a completely irrelevant fact as what you are today rarely turns out to be what you are in week 17.

 

 

 

 

45 minutes ago, Negan said:

This team will probably be a wild card team at best.  Don't see the Dolphins losing too many games. 

Did you notice that at home Tua threw 2 INT's against the Giants?  December Tua, if he's still playing, may not be nearly as formidable as September Tua has been.

 

 

[Success]

1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:

We are definitely in the class of KC & the Eagles.  If we played them this Sunday they would be close games that could go either way. 

 

I agree that TODAY on October 9 we are not in the same class as SF.  No one in the NFL is.  But that is also a completely irrelevant fact as what you are today rarely turns out to be what you are in week 17.

 

 

 

 

 

We're as good as anyone in the AFC.  I said last week that it's really us, the Chiefs & the Dolphins - and I still see it that way as of today.  The Chiefs aren't as good as they've been - but they also have an easier schedule, so I see them still getting the 1 seed.  Mahomes will avoid actually playing in Buffalo for yet another year.

 

The Niners - whew.  That is a TOUGH team right now.  Just loaded with talent on both sides of the ball.  But like you said, let's see how they look later this season & in the playoffs.  

[BullBuchanan]

Comparing our team to last year's team isn't very meaningful, because they weren't very good either. Unfortunately i see a less than 5% chance of this team being able to win a Super Bowl this year. It'll be one of the 49ers, Eagles, or Chiefs the rest of the teams in the NFL are playing a different sport and should just be happy to get to play football. We likely didn't have the pieces we needed before the injury to Tre White, and now having lost our two best defensive players, we certainly don't. Epenesa is nice surprise, but unfortunately he's int he last year of his deal and will likely be out of our price range as a rotational DE.

Unless Beane plans on making a trade for Pat Surtain and Roquan Smith, this season is going to be a wash. Hopefully we at least see Bernard, Williams, Torrence, Benford, Kincaid, Shakir and Groot develop this year so we have a realistic shot in 2024.

[ngbills]

9 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I disagree with your basic assertion that after only 5 games you can make the conclusions you're making:

 

*  Your 1st point about the Bills having their worst 5 game record since 2018 is deeply misleading and implies that we have a problem here.  But to suggest that "3 - 2" is meaningfully worse then "4 - 1" is disingenuous. 

 

*  And what do you think your comparison will look like after next weeks game?  In both 2020 & 2021 we were 4 - 2 after 6 games. Are you thinking we will lose to the Giants on Sunday night keeping us from being 4 - 2?

 

*  Sure at this point last season our big wins over the Rams & Titans looked impressive. But both wins looked a hell of a lot less impressive at the end of the season.

 

The rest of your argument is beneath even the minimum standards of a message board.  The one thing any football fan knows is that if transitive properties don't apply to football games they sure as hell don't apply to comparisons across multiple seasons.

 

 

 

 

 

*The first point is a fact. I am not misleading anyone. The record is 3-2. That is one more loss than the past 4 seasons and means we have less wiggle room the rest of the season. 

* I am not speculating anything about the future other than we have some games that look touch on the schedule. If we win next week I would be happy to update to say we are 4-2 and still have those tough games on the schedule. 

* Our wins last year were @Rams, Titans, Steelers, @Ravens and most were blow outs. Those are easily more impressive than Wash, Mia, and @Raiders. 

 

Your last point makes no sense. Beneath standards? Comparisons across seasons? Most discussions in any season are about where you got better or where you got worse. Obviously there is a lot at play but that is the starting place. To me comparing the play and the results is much more meaningful than opinions of why we are better. That is guesswork and wishful thinking. 

 

4 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Comparing our team to last year's team isn't very meaningful, because they weren't very good either. Unfortunately i see a less than 5% chance of this team being able to win a Super Bowl this year. It'll be one of the 49ers, Eagles, or Chiefs the rest of the teams in the NFL are playing a different sport and should just be happy to get to play football. We likely didn't have the pieces we needed before the injury to Tre White, and now having lost our two best defensive players, we certainly don't. Epenesa is nice surprise, but unfortunately he's int he last year of his deal and will likely be out of our price range as a rotational DE.

Unless Beane plans on making a trade for Pat Surtain and Roquan Smith, this season is going to be a wash. Hopefully we at least see Bernard, Williams, Torrence, Benford, Kincaid, Shakir and Groot develop this year so we have a realistic shot in 2024.

13-3 says hello

[corta765]

1 hour ago, Success said:

I think it's very possible that the last game w/ the Phins will decide the division. And that's so far away, who knows what both teams will look like at that point.  But if we can stay relatively healthy from here on out (and by that, I mean just stay within the league average in terms of players missing time), I like our chances for the division.  Outside chance for a 1 seed, and a good chance to be one of the top 3 seeds.

 

I use nflplayoffpredictors weekly to see how I think the season will go across the board. Buffalo is on a collision course right now with week at Miami being for the division. Buffalo heading into week 18 could be 11-5 which figures a 8-3 run which isn't too far out of the realm of happening as they have a bunch of winnable games with NE2x, NYJ, TB, NYG, and DEN. They do have some tough games like KC/CIN/PHI/DAL/LAC still but McD usually is .500 in those historically and they still have a lot of games left at home. So again just say 11-5 heading into Miami. The Phis themselves have PHI/KC/BAL/DAL so if they are 12-4 come week 18 which is 8-3 themselves things would be reallyyyy interesting. 

 

I have believed the Jets loss not yesterdays is the one that removed error to slip from their schedule. JAX was going to be tough with travel, Jags being playoff team that is building, and the let down from a division game. The Jets game kills because they had it won if Allen would've just stopped throwing gasoline on the fire. The AFC North has been beating itself up and if KC can get a few losses too, the Bills Phins game could actually be a legit division 1 seed game.

[Billl]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Would’ve loved to see KC play a home game Vs jax in london after jax had been there for 11 days…. which Jax players openly admitted gave them a huge advantage.  Sometimes you aren’t what your record says you are. 

Kansas City literally just beat Jacksonville in Jacksonville three weeks ago.  Teams travel.  That's part of the game.  Maybe the Bills mishandled the travel schedule.  If so, that's their own fault.  They could have traveled to London 5 days prior to the game.  (It wouldn't have mattered.)

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

23 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Comparing our team to last year's team isn't very meaningful, because they weren't very good either.

 

Won 13 games. "weren't very good either."

 

 

6 minutes ago, Billl said:

Kansas City literally just beat Jacksonville in Jacksonville three weeks ago.  Teams travel.  That's part of the game.  Maybe the Bills mishandled the travel schedule.  If so, that's their own fault.  They could have traveled to London 5 days prior to the game.  (It wouldn't have mattered.)

 

How'd KC look against Jax

 

[Warriorspikes51]

4 minutes ago, Billl said:

Kansas City literally just beat Jacksonville in Jacksonville three weeks ago.  Teams travel.  That's part of the game.  Maybe the Bills mishandled the travel schedule.  If so, that's their own fault.  They could have traveled to London 5 days prior to the game.  (It wouldn't have mattered.)

 

Maybe the Chiefs could have lost to the Jets. (we'll never know because the refs wouldn't allow it)

[\GoBillsInDallas/]

2 hours ago, MPL said:

I'd say this team is exactly who we thought they were: the most confounding, impossible-to-judge, best-dvoa-ever-yet-somehow-simultaneously-disappointing collection of lovable rag-tag idiots the NFL has ever seen. 

 

 

[Billl]

38 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

How'd KC look against Jax

Good enough to win by 8 and finish the game kneeling down with first and goal from the Jacksonville 1 yard line.  I suppose you'd think it was more impressive if the Chiefs had decided to punch it in and win by 15, and that's the point of my original post.  The NFL isn't a beauty contest, so winning by 8 was every bit as good as winning by 15.

 

Being able to run up the score is fine, but it doesn't matter if you can't win a rock fight.  Miami hung 70 on Denver and then lost to Buffalo.  Buffalo blew out Miami and then lost to Jacksonville.  Kansas City won close games against the Jets and the Vikings.  Which of those three outcomes look best in the standings?

[90sBills]

2 minutes ago, Billl said:

 

Being able to run up the score is fine, but it doesn't matter if you can't win a rock fight.  Miami hung 70 on Denver and then lost to Buffalo.  Buffalo blew out Miami and then lost to Jacksonville.  Kansas City won close games against the Jets and the Vikings.  Which of those three outcomes look best in the standings?

Raises hand….Ooh Ooh I know! The outcomes with refs bailing out the Chiefs! Did I get it right? 

[Aussie Joe]

2 hours ago, Billl said:

People here pay way too much attention to margin of victory.  It's easy to get suckered into believing that a 30 point win is somehow worth more than a 3 point win.  This isn't college football, and there are no style points.  You are what your record says you are.

 

Where you been the last 3 weeks ?
 

We are so fortunate that you are back to provide us with your wisdom the day after a loss…

[Billl]

11 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Raises hand….Ooh Ooh I know! The outcomes with refs bailing out the Chiefs! Did I get it right? 

10 penalties due 86 yards on the Chiefs vs 4 penalties for 51 yards on Minnesota.  Nope.  Not everything is a conspiracy.  Sometimes the better team just wins.

[Success]

1 minute ago, Billl said:

10 penalties due 86 yards on the Chiefs vs 4 penalties for 51 yards on Minnesota.  Nope.  Not everything is a conspiracy.  Sometimes the better team just wins.

 

"Penalty counts" aren't a good gauge. Sometimes, teams get more penalties because they're undisciplined, or have an off game.

 

In 4 of their last 7 games, the Chiefs got questionable calls or no calls at or near the end of games that directly impacted the outcome of those games.

 

I don't think it's a conspiracy.  But top teams in every sport tend to get favorable calls (or no calls) more consistently.  That was true of the Pats when they were on top, and it's true of the Chiefs now.

 

I wish it was the Bills, but there is no doubt that it isn't. The Chiefs are the NFL's darlings now.

 

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

Comparing our team to last year's team isn't very meaningful, because they weren't very good either. Unfortunately i see a less than 5% chance of this team being able to win a Super Bowl this year. It'll be one of the 49ers, Eagles, or Chiefs the rest of the teams in the NFL are playing a different sport and should just be happy to get to play football. We likely didn't have the pieces we needed before the injury to Tre White, and now having lost our two best defensive players, we certainly don't. Epenesa is nice surprise, but unfortunately he's int he last year of his deal and will likely be out of our price range as a rotational DE.

Unless Beane plans on making a trade for Pat Surtain and Roquan Smith, this season is going to be a wash. Hopefully we at least see Bernard, Williams, Torrence, Benford, Kincaid, Shakir and Groot develop this year so we have a realistic shot in 2024.

 

Why would we trade for a MLB?  Why would the Ravens trade Smith after extending him in January?

 

You know the Chiefs struggled against the Jags in the United States and healthy.  They struggled against the Jets.

 

The Eagles went to OT with the Commanders.  A team we beat by 34.  They also struggled with the Vikings, Bucs and Patriots.  The Patriots might be the worst team in the NFL.

 

The only team that is playing very well consistently is the 49ers. 

 

There isn't an AFC team that has shown they are dominant. 

 

[BananaB]

Bills have a tough schedule late in the season, with the injuries on D the O is gonna have to be damn near perfect down the stretch.  I guess it’s a good thing we didn’t cheap out O again and signed Harty and Sherfield. 😂 

Edited October 9, 2023 by BananaB

[Aussie Joe]

I don’t even get how trading for Surtain is going to move  the needle much this season …

 

 

 

Edited October 9, 2023 by Aussie Joe

[Success]

2 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

I don’t even get how trading for Surtain is going to move the needle much this season …

 

 

When Benford gets back, our CB group is really good.  The only thing we're missing is depth.  Elam can alleviate some concern there if he can play better than yesterday (and he did last year), but I could see maybe a move to bolster the depth more. We don't need to trade for a starter.

 

Edited October 9, 2023 by Success