5 Games In - Reality Check

[ngbills]

It has been an interesting season that is for sure. 

 

Record

3-2 - Worse start since 2018. 

All 5 games the Bills were favored by decent margins (MIA only one less than 5, not including NYJ bc if Rodgers was out that 3-pt spread would have been 5+).

2 of our 3 wins are vs sub 500 teams that will not be sniffing the playoffs. Last year we destroyed the super bowl champ Rams and 2 prior playoff teams in TEN and PIT and a close one vs another playoff team in BAL. The one loss was the extreme heat game in MIA.

 

Stats

We have a huge 79 pt scoring differential. Scoring 159 and only giving up 80. But...last year we were at 152 scored and only 61 given up, so a better differential of 91. This narrative about this years record breaking pace is actually not as impressive if you choose to remember last year.

 

On O last year we had 4 games with over 400 yds, basically 2 with 500 yds and only 1 with 300. This year we have only hit 400 twice and not sniffed 500. 

On D last year we held 4 teams under 300 yds (1, almost 2 under 200 yds). No one gut 400 on us. This year we have only held 3 and 2 had essentially 400. 

 

Injuries

We have lost White and likely Milano. Last year we had no White for a long time, Hyde went out week 2, Miller was out 6 games, Poyer was out 4 games, Oliver, Edmunds, Morse all missed 3 games, not to mention Allen and Davis played banged up. 

 

Verdict

So are we in better shape compared to last year? The narrative has been how much improved we are on paper. We have also heard how great the numbers have been despite the two losses. But as shown above last year was actually more impressive after 5 games. 

 

The remaining schedule is tough, this was supposed to be our easy stretch. Quickly coming down the pike we have @CIN, @KC, @PHI, @MIA, @LAC, home v DAL. That is 6 very tough games. If we can go 3-3 in those games and win the rest we are supposed to win that puts us at 12-5. This will likely be tight with MIA. Any slips and we are fighting for a wild card. 

 

Edited October 9, 2023 by ngbills

[NewEra]

Miller went out on thanksgiving not week 6.

 

it’s a different team.

[MPL]

I'd say this team is exactly who we thought they were: the most confounding, impossible-to-judge, best-dvoa-ever-yet-somehow-simultaneously-disappointing collection of lovable rag-tag idiots the NFL has ever seen. 

Edited October 9, 2023 by MPL

[BillzFreak]

10 minutes ago, ngbills said:

It has been an interesting season that is for sure. 

 

Record

3-2 - Worse start since 2018. 

All 5 games the Bills were favored by decent margins (MIA only one less than 5, not including NYJ bc if Rodgers was out that 3-pt spread would have been 5+).

2 of our 3 wins are vs sub 500 teams that will not be sniffing the playoffs. Last year we destroyed the super bowl champ Rams and 2 prior playoff teams in TEN and PIT and a close one vs another playoff team in BAL. The one loss was the extreme heat game in MIA.

 

Stats

We have a huge 79 pt scoring differential. Scoring 159 and only giving up 80. But...last year we were at 152 scored and only 61 given up, so a better differential of 91. This narrative about this years record breaking pace is actually not as impressive if you choose to remember last year.

 

On O last year we had 4 games with over 400 yds, basically 2 with 500 yds and only 1 with 300. This year we have only hit 400 twice and not sniffed 500. 

On D last year we held 4 teams under 300 yds (1, almost 2 under 200 yds). No one gut 400 on us. This year we have only held 3 and 2 had essentially 400. 

 

Injuries

We have lost White and likely Milano. Last year we had no White for a long time, Miller went out week 6, Hyde went out week 2, Poyer was out 4 games, Oliver, Edmunds, Morse all missed 3 games, not to mention Allen and Davis played banged up. 

 

Verdict

So are we in better shape compared to last year? The narrative has been how much improved we are on paper. We have also heard how great the numbers have been despite the two losses. But as shown above last year was actually more impressive after 5 games. 

 

The remaining schedule is tough, this was supposed to be our easy stretch. Quickly coming down the pike we have @CIN, @KC, @PHI, @MIA, @LAC, home v DAL. That is 6 very tough games. If we can go 3-3 in those games and win the rest we are supposed to win that puts us at 12-5. This will likely be tight with MIA. Any slips and we are fighting for a wild card. 

 

And hey maybe we go 4 and 2 or 1 and 5 that's the thing..the games are played either way. Teams can win and lose, the Dolphins might go undefeated from here or maybe even crap the bed. Maybe travis kelce decides to become the next pop icon along side Taylor Swift. This was far from a reality check post more so let me assume how I feel the season plays out.

Edited October 9, 2023 by BillzFreak

[Success]

We're still a better team than last year, even w/ the injuries.

 

We have a nice stretch coming up where we can hopefully build a bit of a cushion to absorb some losses when the schedule gets tough.  I think 12-5 is pretty realistic for a final record.  11-6 wouldn't shock me, and 13-4 is probably the ceiling.

 

I think it's very possible that the last game w/ the Phins will decide the division. And that's so far away, who knows what both teams will look like at that point.  But if we can stay relatively healthy from here on out (and by that, I mean just stay within the league average in terms of players missing time), I like our chances for the division.  Outside chance for a 1 seed, and a good chance to be one of the top 3 seeds.

 

[ngbills]

Just now, Success said:

We're still a better team than last year, even w/ the injuries.

 

We have a nice stretch coming up where we can hopefully build a bit of a cushion to absorb some losses when the schedule gets tough.  I think 12-5 is pretty realistic for a final record.  11-6 wouldn't shock me, and 13-4 is probably the ceiling.

 

I think it's very possible that the last game w/ the Phins will decide the division. And that's so far away, who knows what both teams will look like at that point.  But if we can stay relatively healthy from here on out (and by that, I mean just stay within the league average in terms of players missing time), I like our chances for the division.  Outside chance for a 1 seed, and a good chance to be one of the top 3 seeds.

 

How are we better? Feels better? Looks better? What have done that is better than last year? 

[Boatdrinks]

Last year means absolutely zero with regards to this years edition. It’s a new season and a different team. We may have heard how impressive this years numbers were when the team had one loss. We haven’t heard much about them with two losses as it was only yesterday. Going forward , with the injuries sustained I believe the Bills will be fortunate to win one of their 4 most difficult games vs CIN, DAL, KC and PHL. They’d do well to secure a WC playoff berth. This could change if a significant trade for a quality CB or WR is made. 

[Success]

5 minutes ago, ngbills said:

How are we better? Feels better? Looks better? What have done that is better than last year? 

 

We're better in pretty much every aspect of the game. DVOA was through the roof until yesterday.  Our defense is MUCH better - the line is one of the best in the league.  With McD calling plays, we've been more aggressive, and have a pass rush that is on par w/ basically any other team.  We'll still be a top 5 defense for this season.

 

We have a much better running game this year - and 3 backs who all bring something to the table.  Kincaid will continue to get better. Sherfield and Harty are both better than the guys they replaced.  Davis has been much improved this season. And the O-line is significantly better in both pass protection & run blocking.

 

I think that about covers it.

 

EDIT: and JA is healthy now, too.

 

 

Edited October 9, 2023 by Success

[gonzo1105]

It doesn't matter if you win by 1 or 40 and it doesn't matter if you lose by 1 or lose by 40 it all counts as 1 win or 1 loss. The team is 3-2 and that's what they are right now despite whatever stats wanna be thrown out. 

[Billl]

People here pay way too much attention to margin of victory.  It's easy to get suckered into believing that a 30 point win is somehow worth more than a 3 point win.  This isn't college football, and there are no style points.  You are what your record says you are.

[jaybills]

17 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Miller went out on thanksgiving not week 6.

 

it’s a different team.

He never said week 6. Said he was gone 6 games. 

[90sBills]

Bills have a great chance to win the next 3 games to improve to 6-2. Everyone will forget this feeling and the fact that this team struggles in tight games with tough opponents. Then the next tough opponent, Cincy, will bring all the negative feelings back. Just like clockwork. Book it. 

[Big Blitz]

17 minutes ago, Success said:

We're still a better team than last year, even w/ the injuries.

 

We have a nice stretch coming up where we can hopefully build a bit of a cushion to absorb some losses when the schedule gets tough.  I think 12-5 is pretty realistic for a final record.  11-6 wouldn't shock me, and 13-4 is probably the ceiling.

 

I think it's very possible that the last game w/ the Phins will decide the division. And that's so far away, who knows what both teams will look like at that point.  But if we can stay relatively healthy from here on out (and by that, I mean just stay within the league average in terms of players missing time), I like our chances for the division.  Outside chance for a 1 seed, and a good chance to be one of the top 3 seeds.

 

I think 11-6 barring any more catastrophic injuries.  
 

I think we’ll get to 6-2.  Finish 5-4.  
 

Losses:

 

Bengals

Chiefs 

Chargers 

Eagles 

 

If we pull off a win in one of these I’d be good.  
 

We’re going to beat Dallas at home.  

 

Miami might not need to win week 18.  So I’m currently leaving that TBD.  

10-7 with what could be 6 conference losses might not even make playoffs.  

 

Just get in.  Hope for the best.  Just like I felt after Thanksgiving in 2021.  And Thanksgiving in 2022.  

Edited October 9, 2023 by Big Blitz

[zow2]

The reality check for me is that the Buffalo Bills are not in the same class as:  San Fran, KC and Philly.  I thought they were after the Miami game but they're just not.  The Bills lose too many close games...the running game disappears, coaching gets disjointed and too many weird things happen including serious injuries.

 

I'd put the Bills in there with Dallas, Miami, Cinci, Detroit, Jags.  The problem is Burrow is getting healthy and the Bengals could get on a serious roll and Miami can outscore anyone on a given Sunday plus their RB's are insane. Meanwhile Buffalo is trending a little downwards from major defensive injuries.  It's reality.

[Success]

1 minute ago, Big Blitz said:

I think 11-6 barring any more catastrophic injuries.  
 

I think we’ll get to 6-2.  Finish 5-4.  
 

Losses:

 

Bengals

Chiefs 

Chargers 

Eagles 

 

If we pull off a win in one of these I’d be good.  

 

Miami might not need to win week 18.  So I’m currently leaving that TBD.  
 

 

Just get in.  Hope for the best.  Just like I felt after Thanksgiving in 2021.  And Thanksgiving in 2022.  

 

I doubt we lose all of the games we're 'supposed' to lose (basically, the 4 you have listed).  I'd think we can beat any of those teams - we might lose to the Bengals, and beat the Chiefs, or vice versa.  

 

I don't disagree w/ the final record, but if we end up w/ 6 losses, 1 or 2 will probably be L's we don't expect.  We'll beat some of the good teams in that hard stretch.  Just not sure which ones.

 

[Ya Digg?]

12 minutes ago, Billl said:

People here pay way too much attention to margin of victory.  It's easy to get suckered into believing that a 30 point win is somehow worth more than a 3 point win.  This isn't college football, and there are no style points.  You are what your record says you are.

The reverse can also easily be said. Too many on here almost seem to enjoy a Bills loss more than they do a win. Threads just full of I told you so, doin and gloom, (insert name here) needs to be fired/traded 

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, Billl said:

People here pay way too much attention to margin of victory.  It's easy to get suckered into believing that a 30 point win is somehow worth more than a 3 point win.  This isn't college football, and there are no style points.  You are what your record says you are.

So the Bucs, fins, Seahawks, are better than the bills?  The bills are equal to the colts, Steelers, saints and falcons?  
 

I agree margin of victory is overrated.  I disagree that you are what your record says you are.  Would’ve loved to see KC play a home game Vs jax in london after jax had been there for 11 days…. which Jax players openly admitted gave them a huge advantage.  Sometimes you aren’t what your record says you are. 

 

[jkeerie]

The two games that scared me the most when I saw the schedule, was opening day versus the Jets on 9/11 and playing the Jags in London after they had two games in a row there.  I just had bad vibes about those games.  (I especially hate the Jags.)  So...I chalked those games off as probable losses.

 

What is compounding things this year though, this year, is the devastating player losses of late.   Those player losses are to key players.  Injuries can quickly derail seasons.  Hopefully, the Bills can find their way through this and rise above.

 

 

[Big Blitz]

And if we’re say the 6 seed - that’s likely the Jags Chiefs or Dolphins in Round 1.  
 

The AFC North winner has 4 seed written all over them.   

[Negan]

This team will probably be a wild card team at best.  Don't see the Dolphins losing too many games.