Allen's completion percentage - Him, or Dorsey or the weapons

[Thurman#1]

On 10/4/2023 at 6:52 AM, NewEra said:

Interesting.  Anyone have access to a breakdown of his passes?  
 

I’d also really like to see the RAC difference this year as compared to last if anyone has it. 

 

 

With just a super-quick look, I see he's 14th in Air Yards this year, but was 1st last year. I'd rather see Air Yards per Attempt or Air Yards per Completion, but can't put in any more time on this.

 

https://www.ftnfantasy.com/air-yards?fppg=PPR&years=2022

[Low Positive]

On 10/3/2023 at 5:52 PM, NewEra said:

Interesting.  Anyone have access to a breakdown of his passes?  
 

I’d also really like to see the RAC difference this year as compared to last if anyone has it. 

Bills are currently 5th in RAC in the NFL.  For reference, the Bills were 27th in RAC in 2022. Really seems like something that they are working on.

Edited October 5, 2023 by FrenchConnection

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Billy Claude said:

 

As someone who hates the interception is as good as a punt excuse, that one was actually justified.  It was third and 20, there was no way a dump off was going to get you a first down and they were out of field goal position. I can understand Allen taking the risk there.   That was one of the very few cases where the interception was actually as good as a punt.

 

 

 

Honestly probably better...always a chance if you punt there they get a good return or it goes for a TB...that one pinned them back around the 10 yard line.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

On 10/3/2023 at 5:44 PM, FireChans said:

Josh Allen currently has the highest completion percentage of his career, 74.8 percent.

 

For context, he had 1 game above that last season, and his second highest percentage was 68%.

 

In 2021, he had 3 games above that, including playoffs.

 

Is this the new Josh?  Has he and Dorsey gotten on the same page finally in regards to running the offense?  Is he benefiting from Cook and Kincaid and the gang?

 

What say you.

It could have been argued against the Raiders and Washington that Allen/Dorsey shortened the average depth of target, but in the Miami game Allen was on fire, with several throws down the field. 

 

I think the answer is probably a combination of better offensive line play, and strong performances by Stefon Diggs. 

 

 

 

[Cotton Fitzsimmons]

On 10/3/2023 at 5:59 PM, Gugny said:

Smart Josh is better than dumb (hero ball) Josh. 
 

This is something Andy Reid got across to Mahomes early on. 
 

It’s taken too long with McDermott - but better late than never (we hope). 

Gugny, my good friend, you are spot on per usual! It seems the way teams have to play Josh by committing personnel deep to stop the big play, staying in lanes so he doesn’t take off running for 40 yards himself, etc. leaves a lot of room for these short to intermediate routes.
 

He checked it down to Murray once in the Miami game and he took it for 20 yards up the sideline. The pass he floated over to Cook damn near went all the way. If Josh keeps taking those plays, it’s close to impossible to beat this team.

[Chaos]

13 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Honestly probably better...always a chance if you punt there they get a good return or it goes for a TB...that one pinned them back around the 10 yard line.

The impact of turnovers is hugely exaggerated.  Bad teams lose. Bad teams have lots of turnovers.  Bad teams lose because they are bad, not because they have turnovers.  The situation you are discussing is an extreme example.   However people underestimate the rump act of a punt.  In the modern game the only difference between a punt and a turn over is average starting field position.  Against the best offenses, ie Chiefs and Bills, starting field position is not a huge factor.  Allen or Mahomes starting on their own 20, is more likely to result in points than Justin Fields starting at midfield.  

[Watkins101]

On 10/3/2023 at 5:49 PM, FireChans said:

I thought that too, but Josh has the second highest YPA of his career thus far.

While I don’t have air yards per attempt, Josh had a higher yard per completion last year, by almost a yard. The difference in yards per attempt is largely due to the increase in completion %, which probably comes from throwing shorter a bit more, as well as better options for that. 

[Big Turk]

8 minutes ago, Chaos said:

The impact of turnovers is hugely exaggerated.  Bad teams lose. Bad teams have lots of turnovers.  Bad teams lose because they are bad, not because they have turnovers.  The situation you are discussing is an extreme example.   However people underestimate the rump act of a punt.  In the modern game the only difference between a punt and a turn over is average starting field position.  Against the best offenses, ie Chiefs and Bills, starting field position is not a huge factor.  Allen or Mahomes starting on their own 20, is more likely to result in points than Justin Fields starting at midfield.  

 

True enough, MOST times even with a bunch of turnovers, the Bills are still kicking the other teams ass...however, WHEN they do lose, it usually is because turnovers happen in addition to them playing poorly, usually on offense. In other words, if they don't turn the ball over, this team isn't going to lose.

Edited October 5, 2023 by Big Turk

[BBFL]

On 10/3/2023 at 9:56 PM, Chaos said:

Allen was brilliant the last three seasons.  Then he injured his UCL.  Then he had one bad game this year (with a 70% plus completion rate).  Now he brilliant again.  But now his brilliance is supported by a good oline, a much better running game, and a game plan using more play action.   Same brilliant top 2 QB play, with a much better cast around him.   

Agreed, 100%. 
 

Think this is the biggest thing to keep any QB able to play good consistently. Give a great QB a decent OLine and the opponent is in trouble. 
 

There’s a reason our biggest opponents and competitors within the division both tried intensely to upgrade their line. One won a Lombardi and the other lost to them in the AFCC. Even then the latter were on their backups when we lost; ouch. 

Edited October 5, 2023 by BBFL

[hondo in seattle]

On 10/3/2023 at 3:27 PM, Reks Ryan said:

I saw a random stat on ESPN after the Raiders game, that Allen was the first QB in history to have 3 games with an 80%+ completion rate and at least 3 TDs before the age of 30.   After the dominant performance against Miami he's now done it 4 times at the age of 27.  

 

For several years, Allen's been capable of blistering hot streaks where he's very accurate and nearly unstoppable.  His play style makes it difficult to keep up 74% game by game.    IMO he'll go through some ups & downs through the season and finish the year around 70%.    As long as he keeps producing TDs and limits the TO's it's OK if his complettion % dips from the currnent rate.

 

In addtion to the factors mentioned above, I think his improved pocket presence have helped completion % the last 3 weeks.  Less scrambling around and throws on the run or throw aways.

 

Agreed.  

 

I'll just add that Allen's cold streaks weren't because he suddenly lost his arm talent.  His cold streaks come when he was under duress and running for his life in games, often low-scoring, close contests, where he pressed too hard to make a play.  

 

If this OL protects him better, and if he can stay patient when things aren't going our way, the cold streaks should be minimized if not eliminated.  

[billsfan89]

3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Honestly probably better...always a chance if you punt there they get a good return or it goes for a TB...that one pinned them back around the 10 yard line.

Punts are designed to be tackled and pinned down. They come with risks as a block or big returns can happen. But Interceptions are more likely to be returned farther as offensive players aren’t expecting a INT and they are in a designed position to tackle and aren’t experienced at making a defensive play. 
 

That Int against the Commanders was understandable and anyone can live with it but generally speaking a check down or throw away is better in that situation 

[Low Positive]

3 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

Punts are designed to be tackled and pinned down. They come with risks as a block or big returns can happen. But Interceptions are more likely to be returned farther as offensive players aren’t expecting a INT and they are in a designed position to tackle and aren’t experienced at making a defensive play. 
 

That Int against the Commanders was understandable and anyone can live with it but generally speaking a check down or throw away is better in that situation 

I would rather that he checked that one down and punt. The Bills have a really good punter. Let him do his job.

[Alphadawg7]

On 10/3/2023 at 2:44 PM, FireChans said:

Josh Allen currently has the highest completion percentage of his career, 74.8 percent.

 

For context, he had 1 game above that last season, and his second highest percentage was 68%.

 

In 2021, he had 3 games above that, including playoffs.

 

Is this the new Josh?  Has he and Dorsey gotten on the same page finally in regards to running the offense?  Is he benefiting from Cook and Kincaid and the gang?

 

What say you.

 

Its hard to say...one thing is clear, Josh getting the ball out faster is a big reason for it and taking quick strikes rather than looking downfield so often for deeper plays to develop.  

 

Is that Dorsey adjusting how he calls plays, where the first reads are, etc?  Or is that Josh realizing how much easier the game becomes when he takes what is there because it opens everything else up more and he has higher percentage shots downfield vs always looking to force it down field first so often.

 

Personally, I think its a combo of both Josh buying into focusing on taking what is there and Dorsey game planning to help Josh see those opportunities quicker and prioritize them.

 

All I know is whatever the reason, its working and I expect to keep seeing lots more of it.

[GerstAusGosheim]

Best Oline he's ever had. Not surprised.

[Einstein's Dog]

I think the biggest factor is personnel.  The upgrade to Cook and Kincaid over Singletary (and over rookie Cook) and McK, along w the improvements to the line.  These people are better at receiving and get Josh's and Dorseys trust.

 

Dorsey/Beane tried to get the people last year, tried for the Wash traitor, then drafted Cook, got Crowder and had McK. 

 

 It boiled down to McK and Singletary were poor at the receiving short passes and it made more sense to go 25-30 yards downfield for the 65% catch rate than the 70% chance of 4-5 yards.

[Billy Claude]

5 hours ago, Chaos said:

The impact of turnovers is hugely exaggerated.  Bad teams lose. Bad teams have lots of turnovers.  Bad teams lose because they are bad, not because they have turnovers.  The situation you are discussing is an extreme example.   However people underestimate the rump act of a punt.  In the modern game the only difference between a punt and a turn over is average starting field position.  Against the best offenses, ie Chiefs and Bills, starting field position is not a huge factor.  Allen or Mahomes starting on their own 20, is more likely to result in points than Justin Fields starting at midfield.  

 

5 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

True enough, MOST times even with a bunch of turnovers, the Bills are still kicking the other teams ass...however, WHEN they do lose, it usually is because turnovers happen in addition to them playing poorly, usually on offense. In other words, if they don't turn the ball over, this team isn't going to lose.

 

I disagree with the first statement and agree with the second.

 

I don't think the impact of turnovers are exaggerated. Since 2021, the Bills have lost 10 regular season games.  They have  more turnover than their opponents in 8 out of those 10 games.  In the other two games they lost, each team had one turnover. 

 

At least in the regular season, the Bills just don't lose if they don't turn the ball over.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Big Turk]

5 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

 

 

I disagree with the first statement and agree with the second.

 

I don't think the impact of turnovers are exaggerated. Since 2021, the Bills have lost 10 regular season games.  They have  more turnover than their opponents in 8 out of those 10 games.  In the other two games they lost, each team had one turnover. 

 

At least in the regular season, the Bills just don't lose if they don't turn the ball over.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think on balance tho, the Bills STILL win more than their opponent does when they turn the ball over at a higher rate tho don't they?  I might check that just out of curiosity...however, the point still stands that by doing so they leave the door open a little bit for the other team to win the game whereas it stays shut and locked pretty much if they do not.

[Billy Claude]

11 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

I think on balance tho, the Bills STILL win more than their opponent does when they turn the ball over at a higher rate tho don't they?  I might check that just out of curiosity...however, the point still stands that by doing so they leave the door open a little bit for the other team to win the game whereas it stays shut and locked pretty much if they do not.

 

 

My guess is also that the Bills won more than 50% of games with more turnovers since the Bills win a lot of games and also have a  lot of turnovers.

 

However, definitely if they don't lose the turnover battle, the Bills pretty much just don't lose, at least in the regular season.

 

I checked that  the playoffs,  the Bills had the same number of turnovers as their opponent in the first three losses.  The Bills  had more turnovers than the Bengals  (1 to 0) but clearly turnovers were not why they lost that game,

 

Edited October 5, 2023 by Billy Claude

[Billy Claude]

It seems like an interesting question how turnovers affect game outcomes, so I went back the last 20 regular season games, i.e., the 2022 season and the first four games of 2023.

The Bills had more turnovers 9 times.  The  Bills record is 5 wins and 4 losses in those games.  This included two losses to the lowly Jets.

The Bills has the same number of turnovers 3 times.  They were 3-0 in those games

The Bills had less turnovers  8 times.  They were 8-0 in those games.

 

Adding the data for the 2021 regular season.

 

The Bills had more turnovers 15 times.  The Bills are 7 win and 8 losses in those games.

The Bills had the same number of turnovers as their opponents 7 times.  They are 5 and 2 in those games.

The Bills had fewer turnovers than their opponents 15 times.  They are 15 and 0 in those games.

 

The data does not support the idea that the impact of turnovers is exaggerated.

Edited October 6, 2023 by Billy Claude