QB Passer Rating

[FireChans]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

any/a is the stat i use. I don't know what apya is. Allen was 6th last year behind hurts, tua, mahomes, goff, garoppolo. passer rating would have put him 8th..not a huge difference

 

the point about completions is known...you aren't going to be able to convince me that a completion for zero yards has significantly more value than an incompletion. If you believe it that's fine.

I'm sorry, I completely screwed up and forgot we were talking ANYA. I tried to stealth edit before you got to responding lol

 

You won't convince me that 10 completions for 10 yards each isn't better that 1/10 for 100 yards either.

[GoBills808]

24 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I'm sorry, I completely screwed up and forgot we were talking ANYA. I tried to stealth edit before you got to responding lol

 

You won't convince me that 10 completions for 10 yards each isn't better that 1/10 for 100 yards either.

That's ok but to illustrate my point- passer rating says a completion for -1 yards is more than twice as valuable as an incompletion

 

That's incongruent imo

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

That's ok but to illustrate my point- passer rating says a completion for -1 yards is more than twice as valuable as an incompletion

 

That's incongruent imo

Totally agree, that's bonkers lol. All these stats breakdown under certain circumstances, which is why football is the hardest sport to capture statistically.

Edited October 3, 2023 by FireChans

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Totally agree, that's bonkers lol. All these stats breakdown under certain circumstances, which is why football is the hardest sport to capture statistically.

🤙So not to get too into the weeds but when I say completions are baked into YPA it's not that they're assigned actual value as you pointed out but rather that the more productive passes should in theory be correlated w a higher YPA...which is why I feel also adding simple completions per attempt into passer rating skews it too hard in that direction

 

Like a completion for zero yards still goes into YPA as 0/attempt you know, it's still there 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, DuckyBoys said:

Can't disagree  My point is a game manager qb with a strong run game is going to look better in this system  All 5 of those qbs had good to great run games

Yes, game managers may rate higher than some would like, but the fact that they may be advantaged somewhat by the formula, it still isn't enough to put them on top of any lists.   

 

Career passer rating - top 20, goes like this:  

 

1Patrick Mahomes105.02017-2023kan

2Aaron Rodgers103.62005-20232TM

3Deshaun Watson101.52017-20232TM

4Russell Wilson100.32012-20232TM

5Drew Brees98.72001-20202TM

6Jimmy Garoppolo98.62014-20233TM

7Kirk Cousins98.02012-20232TM

8Dak Prescott97.72016-2023dal

9Joe Burrow97.62020-2023cin

10Tom Brady97.22000-20222TM

Lamar Jackson97.22018-2023rav

12Tony Romo97.12004-2016dal

13Justin Herbert96.92020-2023sdg

14Steve Young+96.81985-19992TM

15Peyton Manning+96.51998-20152TM

16Philip Rivers95.22004-20202TM

17Kurt Warner+93.71998-20093TM

18Matt Ryan93.62008-20222TM

19Ben Roethlisberger93.52004-2021pit

20Josh 

 

Jimmy G and Kirk G might be accused of being game managers, but that's about it on the list.  The list is littered with Hall of Famers, which suggests that the passer rating is a pretty good measure of who's good.  

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

🤙So not to get too into the weeds but when I say completions are baked into YPA it's not that they're assigned actual value as you pointed out but rather that the more productive passes should in theory be correlated w a higher YPA...which is why I feel also adding simple completions per attempt into passer rating skews it too hard in that direction

 

Like a completion for zero yards still goes into YPA as 0/attempt you know, it's still there 

There's certainly an aspect of double-dipping statistically because yardage is tied to completions more than the inverse (ie you can't get yardage without a completion but you can get a completion without yardage), so if both are counted, it skews it positively.

 

I still think there is SIGNIFICANT value in efficiency stats IRT to QB's, because football, more than any other sport, has so many factors in regards to scoring, meaning if a QB can extend drives efficiently and gain smaller amounts of yardage consistently, it will provide value beyond the sum of its parts.

 

In hockey, it's really largely shot location (to my limited knowledge). In basketball, it's shot location. Shot from X has % chance of resulting in Y points. And even those relatively simple numbers are greatly affected by WHO is taking the shot. Durant in the midrange may be statistically more efficient than a bum taking layups.

 

Even EPA, which has been around but has spiked greatly in popularity is a much more complicated stat comparative to these other sports leagues.

 

 

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Yes, game managers may rate higher than some would like, but the fact that they may be advantaged somewhat by the formula, it still isn't enough to put them on top of any lists.   

 

Career passer rating - top 20, goes like this:  

 

1Patrick Mahomes105.02017-2023kan

2Aaron Rodgers103.62005-20232TM

3Deshaun Watson101.52017-20232TM

4Russell Wilson100.32012-20232TM

5Drew Brees98.72001-20202TM

6Jimmy Garoppolo98.62014-20233TM

7Kirk Cousins98.02012-20232TM

8Dak Prescott97.72016-2023dal

9Joe Burrow97.62020-2023cin

10Tom Brady97.22000-20222TM

Lamar Jackson97.22018-2023rav

12Tony Romo97.12004-2016dal

13Justin Herbert96.92020-2023sdg

14Steve Young+96.81985-19992TM

15Peyton Manning+96.51998-20152TM

16Philip Rivers95.22004-20202TM

17Kurt Warner+93.71998-20093TM

18Matt Ryan93.62008-20222TM

19Ben Roethlisberger93.52004-2021pit

20Josh 

 

Jimmy G and Kirk G might be accused of being game managers, but that's about it on the list.  The list is littered with Hall of Famers, which suggests that the passer rating is a pretty good measure of who's good.  

Throw out his rookie year and thank McD for the first 2 years and he is 99.28 in the last 3.25 years or #5......😉

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Yes, game managers may rate higher than some would like, but the fact that they may be advantaged somewhat by the formula, it still isn't enough to put them on top of any lists.   

 

Career passer rating - top 20, goes like this:  

 

1Patrick Mahomes105.02017-2023kan

2Aaron Rodgers103.62005-20232TM

3Deshaun Watson101.52017-20232TM

4Russell Wilson100.32012-20232TM

5Drew Brees98.72001-20202TM

6Jimmy Garoppolo98.62014-20233TM

7Kirk Cousins98.02012-20232TM

8Dak Prescott97.72016-2023dal

9Joe Burrow97.62020-2023cin

10Tom Brady97.22000-20222TM

Lamar Jackson97.22018-2023rav

12Tony Romo97.12004-2016dal

13Justin Herbert96.92020-2023sdg

14Steve Young+96.81985-19992TM

15Peyton Manning+96.51998-20152TM

16Philip Rivers95.22004-20202TM

17Kurt Warner+93.71998-20093TM

18Matt Ryan93.62008-20222TM

19Ben Roethlisberger93.52004-2021pit

20Josh 

 

Jimmy G and Kirk G might be accused of being game managers, but that's about it on the list.  The list is littered with Hall of Famers, which suggests that the passer rating is a pretty good measure of who's good.  

 

Sure, passer rating does measure something meaningful.

 

But most human evaluators of QBs wouldn't put Jimmy Garoppolo ahead of Tom Brady, for example.  

 

Because of the methodological flaws posters have noted, the passer rating top twenty is only a rough approximation of the "real" top twenty.  

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Sure, passer rating does measure something meaningful.

 

But most human evaluators of QBs wouldn't put Jimmy Garoppolo ahead of Tom Brady, for example.  

 

Because of the methodological flaws posters have noted, the passer rating top twenty is only a rough approximation of the "real" top twenty.  

Of course.  But that doesn't mean it isn't meaningful.  If there were a perfect way to rate qbs, someone would have invented it.  

 

Passer rating is an amalgam of stats.  It's better than any one of its constituent stats.  Better than yards or TDs or INT ratio pr any of them. . 

[MJS]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Sure, passer rating does measure something meaningful.

 

But most human evaluators of QBs wouldn't put Jimmy Garoppolo ahead of Tom Brady, for example.  

 

Because of the methodological flaws posters have noted, the passer rating top twenty is only a rough approximation of the "real" top twenty.  

You have to account for the era they played in too. Tom Brady started in an era that was more brutal and more difficult to be an efficient QB. Today you also see the west coast offense spreading things out, making it easier for QB's to read the defense and make completions.

 

If Jimmy G started playing in 2001, he would not have been as good as Tom Brady in passer rating.

 

You see a steady incline in passer rating averages over the years, and that is due to 1) legislating defense out of the game, and 2) offensive schemes making it easier for QB's.

[BobbyC81]

22 hours ago, Punch said:

More than a decade on and we're still debating JP Losman vs. Trent Edwards.

Speaking of Trent Edwards, I just finished rewatching The Office series and in the last season, when Jim Halpert was working on that sports company in Philly, a coworker comes out of a conference room and calls out to Jim “We have Trent Edwards on the phone.”

 

Trent was with the Eagles then.

[The Frankish Reich]

On 10/3/2023 at 5:12 AM, Chaos said:

Oddly for all the complaints about passer rating, over the course of a season it is pretty effective at identifying the top QBs, and it correlates very well with winning football games.  

True.

It's a weird 1970s era calculation, but if you look back at the consensus opinion - which QBs are the best/worst in a given era? - it's pretty damn good. 

I'm a baseball stats geek. For me it's like OPS+ in baseball. Kind of a weird made-up thing without a ton of "theory" behind it, but one that pretty well reflects relative performance. As a much more team game, football doesn't have any really good measures like Wins Above Replacement (WAR). 

[k2mountain]

On 10/3/2023 at 1:16 AM, BobbyC81 said:

 

 

Many numbers we experience in life in the US of A are based on tens and hundreds.  Why do they have a perfect score be 158.3?
 

 

Yeah! And why is Pi 3.14 Where did they come up with that?