NFL Offense > Defense Pendulum Swinging Back?

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Cleveland

Dallas

Buffalo

San Fransisco

Phili 

 

The game has evolved, and continues to be, an offensive game. However, it seems that teams have started to counter this with both scheme (2 high safeties, etc) and personnel.

There are hosts of other teams with dynamic pass rushers, good defenses and parity seems to be at an all-time high.

 

Even some of the best offenses of years past aren’t nearly as dangerous or unstoppable as they seemed to have been previously. 
 

I personally think it’s great for the game, but why? Have defenses started to catch up? Is this just an illusion to me? Or are we starting to see a transition back towards prioritizing pieces of the defensive side of the ball? 
 

 

Edited October 3, 2023 by EmotionallyUnstable

[NoSaint]

4 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Cleveland

Dallas

Buffalo

San Fransisco

Phili 

 

The game has evolved, and continues to be, an offensive game. However, it seems that teams have started to counter this with both scheme (2 high safeties, etc) and personnel.

There are hosts of other teams with dynamic pass rushers, good defenses and parity seems to be at an all-time high.

 

Even some of the best offenses of years past aren’t nearly as dangerous or unstoppable as they seemed to have been previously. 
 

I personally think it’s great for the game, but why? Have defenses started to catch up? Is this just an illusion to me? Or are we starting to see a transition back towards prioritizing pieces of the defensive side of the ball? 
 

 

points per game are UP year over year, but down slightly from the high water mark of 2020. Looks like this year is pretty average within the uptick that happened about 10 years ago 
 

im not sure it’s a reality to say it’s moving the opposite way yet

[RiotAct]

For the better, I’d say!  

 

I do not enjoy  watching receivers constantly being wide open with not a single defender within 15 yards (well unless it’s the Bills offense; in which case I’m more than fine with it).  A la the NCAA Championship last year (shudder).

[EmotionallyUnstable]

13 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

points per game are UP year over year, but down slightly from the high water mark of 2020. Looks like this year is pretty average within the uptick that happened about 10 years ago 
 

im not sure it’s a reality to say it’s moving the opposite way yet

Appreicate the info. I am not savvy nor dedicated enough to find this info. I do wonder what other statistical measures could be explored. Are sacks up? Yards? Turnovers? 
 

It could be both that offensive scoring continues to be at all time highs while defensive impact is also more prevelant, leading to more scoring in its own way.

 

 

Edited October 3, 2023 by EmotionallyUnstable

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

I hope so. Kind of bored of the shoot outs (unless it’s Buffalo blowing someone out.) McD just embarrassed the so-called best offense in the NFL. 

[Virgil]

I'm too lazy to look, but ESPN wrote an article about exactly this a few weeks back.  The shifting towards the 2-3 safety look to prevent the deep back.  The Anti-Chiefs/Bills defense

[NoSaint]

1 minute ago, Virgil said:

I'm too lazy to look, but ESPN wrote an article about exactly this a few weeks back.  The shifting towards the 2-3 safety look to prevent the deep back.  The Anti-Chiefs/Bills defense

2 high safeties is anything but new though.

[Virgil]

1 minute ago, NoSaint said:

2 high safeties is anything but new though.

 

Correct, but most defenses were keeping one safety deep on the majority of plays.  Even the two safety deep setup typically had one of them starting in the box.  Now, teams are keeping the 2 safeties deep, with a 3rd option to drop back. 

 

None of it is new, as you say, but the trend and execution is starting to shift back.  Same as how the NFL adjusted to the Greatest Show on Turf.

[Bob in STL]

29 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Cleveland

Dallas

Buffalo

San Fransisco

Phili 

 

The game has evolved, and continues to be, an offensive game. However, it seems that teams have started to counter this with both scheme (2 high safeties, etc) and personnel.

There are hosts of other teams with dynamic pass rushers, good defenses and parity seems to be at an all-time high.

 

Even some of the best offenses of years past aren’t nearly as dangerous or unstoppable as they seemed to have been previously. 
 

I personally think it’s great for the game, but why? Have defenses started to catch up? Is this just an illusion to me? Or are we starting to see a transition back towards prioritizing pieces of the defensive side of the ball? 
 

 

Defensive players today have to be fast and fearless.  Just being strong and willing to tackle is not enough in todays game.   Look at our linebackers today compared to the proto-type LBs from the 70/80/90’s.   This position has completely evolved to help support the passing game but fast and strong enough to snuff the run.  
 

We’re are fortunate as Benard looks to be in the Milano mold and we have two LBs capable of keeping an offense like Miami’s at bay. 

[NoSaint]

Just now, Virgil said:

 

Correct, but most defenses were keeping one safety deep on the majority of plays.  Even the two safety deep setup typically had one of them starting in the box.  Now, teams are keeping the 2 safeties deep, with a 3rd option to drop back. 

 

None of it is new, as you say, but the trend and execution is starting to shift back.  Same as how the NFL adjusted to the Greatest Show on Turf.

the difference here being the nfl scoring explosion correlated to rule changes, not simply a talented roster or new wrinkle. 
 

Unless you point towards rule changes favoring the defense or a long term shift in cap dollars effecting where athletes are trying to play - there isn’t much reason to think a noteworthy swing is in progress.

[NoSaint]

22 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Appreicate the info. I am not savvy nor dedicated enough to find this info. I do wonder what other statistical measures could be explored. Are sacks up? Yards? Turnovers? 
 

It could be both that offensive scoring continues to be at all time highs while defensive impact is also more prevelant, leading to more scoring in its own way.

 

 

is it simply that several of the teams you picked are high scoring with aggressive pass rushes ala the manning colts?

not necessarily steel curtains but simply good complimentary football? 

[Richard Noggin]

Love the topic here. I have faith in NFL defensive coordinators to catch up to just about every offense, eventually, given proper resources. 

 

It's been my opinion that we should identify our most pressing societal and planetary problems, maybe top three at the time, then conscript the top ten NFL defensive coordinators, each offseason, to take three weeks to diagnose, deconstruct, and devise a gameplan to defeat those problems. 

 

Boom. Problems solved. 

[Tenhigh]

55 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Cleveland

Dallas

Buffalo

San Fransisco

Phili 

 

The game has evolved, and continues to be, an offensive game. However, it seems that teams have started to counter this with both scheme (2 high safeties, etc) and personnel.

There are hosts of other teams with dynamic pass rushers, good defenses and parity seems to be at an all-time high.

 

Even some of the best offenses of years past aren’t nearly as dangerous or unstoppable as they seemed to have been previously. 
 

I personally think it’s great for the game, but why? Have defenses started to catch up? Is this just an illusion to me? Or are we starting to see a transition back towards prioritizing pieces of the defensive side of the ball? 
 

 

I hope it's starting to swing back, it's a better sport with parity on both sides of the ball. 

 

On a related note, is anyone else sick of the under-thrown deep ball PI call? I wish the nfl could do something about that....

[EmotionallyUnstable]

7 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

is it simply that several of the teams you picked are high scoring with aggressive pass rushes ala the manning colts?

not necessarily steel curtains but simply good complimentary football? 

Sure. But there are also examples of teams that have game breaking players (Lions, Jags, Chargers, etc) which I wouldn’t necessarily say are high functioning offenses or as complimentary as those previously stated.

 

Again, nothing new here. Just seems to be more prevelant. Last week Bengals vs Rams, the offense couldn’t get anything go and both defenses seemed to be in control of most of that game. Both of those teams, within the last few years, have been considered top notch. 

[NoSaint]

41 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Sure. But there are also examples of teams that have game breaking players (Lions, Jags, Chargers, etc) which I wouldn’t necessarily say are high functioning offenses or as complimentary as those previously stated.

 

Again, nothing new here. Just seems to be more prevelant. Last week Bengals vs Rams, the offense couldn’t get anything go and both defenses seemed to be in control of most of that game. Both of those teams, within the last few years, have been considered top notch. 

Chargers have been god awful, but they did beat up the Vegas backup qb-

 

they are literally last place in receiving yards allowed though and may underscore the gap between your perception based on games watched and reality on this? Not meant snarky so much as trends for 32 teams are hard to keep track of anecdotally with watching a few games and hearing a few comments like most of us do

[Malazan]

19 or the last 20 teams in the Superbowl have a top 10 offense during the regular season. 70% of them have a top 5 offense. 

[FireChans]

17 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Cleveland

Dallas

Buffalo

San Fransisco

Phili 

 

The game has evolved, and continues to be, an offensive game. However, it seems that teams have started to counter this with both scheme (2 high safeties, etc) and personnel.

There are hosts of other teams with dynamic pass rushers, good defenses and parity seems to be at an all-time high.

 

Even some of the best offenses of years past aren’t nearly as dangerous or unstoppable as they seemed to have been previously. 
 

I personally think it’s great for the game, but why? Have defenses started to catch up? Is this just an illusion to me? Or are we starting to see a transition back towards prioritizing pieces of the defensive side of the ball? 
 

 

Citation needed.

 

There has been the most blowout (20 pt wins) through four weeks since 2014.

[Shaw66]

I think the pendulum is definitely swinging.  One sign is how the running game is becoming important in many offenses.  Why?  Because defenses are having more success stopping the pass.   Defensive coaches are now doing what McDermott has been doing for years - trying to figure out how to stop the pass, and still have guys on the field who can stand up to the run.  And there are so many physically talented defenders, it's becoming doable. 

 

Another sign is that defenses are now absolutely blowing up offenses that just aren't that good.  Sure, bad offenses always have lost, but the Giants and the Patriots this weekend were embarrassing on offense.   They were overwhelmed by the defenses they faced, just crushed.   

 

I've said before that I think the NFL probably already is in the process of figuring out what to do to the rules to reinvigorate the offenses.   My personal favorite is to loosen up, again, the offensive holding rules in some way, so that there are fewer holding calls.  Offensive holding is a known drive-killer, and killing fewer drives should lead to more scoring.   

[benderbender]

Defense wins championships...but only during alternating decades. 

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think the pendulum is definitely swinging.  One sign is how the running game is becoming important in many offenses.  Why?  Because defenses are having more success stopping the pass.   Defensive coaches are now doing what McDermott has been doing for years - trying to figure out how to stop the pass, and still have guys on the field who can stand up to the run.  And there are so many physically talented defenders, it's becoming doable. 

 

Another sign is that defenses are now absolutely blowing up offenses that just aren't that good.  Sure, bad offenses always have lost, but the Giants and the Patriots this weekend were embarrassing on offense.   They were overwhelmed by the defenses they faced, just crushed.   

 

I've said before that I think the NFL probably already is in the process of figuring out what to do to the rules to reinvigorate the offenses.   My personal favorite is to loosen up, again, the offensive holding rules in some way, so that there are fewer holding calls.  Offensive holding is a known drive-killer, and killing fewer drives should lead to more scoring.   

Citation needed.

 

The top rushing offense was worst record in the NFL Chicago Bears last season. The Superbowl Champion Chiefs were 20th. Meanwhile the top 5 passing teams were all playoff teams. Quite a pendulum swing.